Link: How Much Left in the Tank?
Posted on June 30th, 2009 by Bassett
The guys at Kotite’s Corner took a very interesting look at running backs across the league, and predicted how close they are to retirement. Using the base ‘retirement’ age of 65, they used some fancy math to come up with, in broad terms, how much gas is left in the tank for backs across the league, by using historical data … ok forget it, I’d rather let them explain.
It’s compelling, and even though Kotite’s Corner themselves don’t see the measurements as gospel, it proves some compelling evidence on why the team would be unwise to re-up Thomas Jones’ contract right now.
Very cool, however unexact it may be.
I’ve developed a similar formula for predicting the number of rushing yards a running back will achieve.
First, you estimate the number of carries a back will get for the season. Then, you estimate the average yards for each carry. Then, by multiplying these two numbers together, you achieve a near perfect estimate.
Take Thomas Jones, for example. Last year, he had 290 carries and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. 290 * 4.5 = 1305. His actual yardage was 1312, which leaves a difference of a mere 7 yards.
I’m a genius by the way, so don’t try this on your own.
The problem with this analysis is that it doesn’t take into account the useage a player has endured.
Take our very own Thomas Jones for example. He was not given a full load for the beginning of his career: his first year-2000/112 attempts; 2001/112 atempts; 2002/138 attempts; 2003/137 attempts. So thats an average of 125 attempts in his first four years, a pretty light load when compared to Edgerin James or LaDainain Thompson or Fred Taylor (all comparable ages). So is it fair to say TJ has only has 26 games left as the article implies? I don’t think so, I would guess that TJ has 48 to 64 (3-4 years) games left because of the light useage in the beginning of his career.
Although TJ doesn’t have a lot of NFL mileage on him, so to speak, I often wonder about the wear and tear on his body due to his vigorous workout regime.
I’m no medical expert — not even close — but I was just curious if the continual pounding his body receives in the weight room might prematurely weaken body parts that are not muscle — tendons, joints, cartilage, etc. And consequently, might that offset some of TJ’s “future mileage” as it were?
Anyone out there with some sort of medical background care to offer an opinion? I don’t doubt I’m completely mistaken — just wondering.
It looked for the most part that the chart tracked age. Older backs, in or right near their thirties were at the top (end) of the chart and the younger backs were all at the bottom. Who knew? ;-)
I don’t think other than age there is any way to predict the most significant impacts on RB’s careers: injury, overuse because of bad coaching or another player’s injury, having a good offensive line, have a young Peyton or Brett who puts little pressure on the RB, etc.
IOW, other than age, I don’t much see what use this chart or idea has.
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Look at Curtis M., if Herm hadn’t run him into the ground, he might have gotten a few more years.
I’m with you Harlan, this chart is useless. Each player is an individual, and his previous seasons are unique. Curtis hit the wall when his knee went bone on bone, Who can say when such a thing will happen without intimate knowledge of a player’s physical exams? Did Curtis’ grueling workout regimen delay or exacerbate the problem? I certainly can’t say. Has Jones’ equally stringent workout habits hurt or helped his future potential?
There’s no doubt that age is an important factor in predicting a player’s future production, but the other factors can’t be overlooked.
I certainly don’t expect Jones to hit the wall THIS season, and have always been against giving him more money now.
Next season is more than a year away, and I’d revisit the Jones question after THIS season.
Matt Jones anyone?
Um NO!
TJ has at best 3 good years left. You cant compare him to Taylor or LDT or James because they have acquired huge mileage throughout their career. TJ hasnt had many seasons over 300 carries and that is good for a RB. His workout regime ensure that his body is in great shape and casn withstand the beating. I see him even being a backup until he is 34-35.
Larry Johnson also is going to fall apart with those high number of carries in a short time and the injuries, he should be out in a short time, but it depends really, no one really knows some are built more tougher than others ala Walter Payton
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