TweetMailbag: So, How We Looking?
So here it is, TJB’s very first Tweetmailbag. An ungainly hybrid of emails and Twitter questions from you, the loyal readers. You can always email us at thejetsblog@gmail.com or to follow us on Twitter check us out at twitter.com/thejetsblog. OK, let’s stoke it up.
From fireny40 via email: Any chance you think jets maybe give derrick brooks a shot to come in and help out with the loss of Pace? He is an inside LB but he’s a knowledgeable veteran with speed who I’m sure can move to the outside. He’ll definitely be cheap no more than veteran league minimum.
You’re right about for what price he’d have to play, right now the market seems to bear out that a veteran minimum for him is generous.
As far as him playing on the outside? In a classic 3-4, I’d suggest strongly against it. Even if he was 23 years old and at his prime, at a listed 6-0 235, there’s no way he can stand the typical rigors of playing outside in a standard 3-4 — setting the edge on Tackles and such. And maybe that’s part of the problem. With more and more teams moving towards the 3-4, someone like Brooks is less helpful to a club, and let’s face it, although MLBs are smart, many would consider them glorified garbage men.
If the Jets were going to play a base 4-3, in that case then maybe he could play outside, probably on the weak side. If the Jets played more 3-4 sets and they signed him, then I’d settle him into the ILB role where he’s more comfortable and he could take reps behind Harris. The trouble with taking reps behind Harris is that Harris can be an every down player, so paying a guy a large veteran minimum chunk might be superfluous. Now, keep in mind that the team was interested in Zach Thomas at one point this offseason, AFTER they had already gotten Bart Scott. If I was the GM, the only way I’d sign Brooks to the Jets was if I was sufficiently concerned about David Harris’ health.
mthomas38 via Twitter: What is the targeted split of carries between the triumvirate? Will S. Greene Be Playing 3rd Down Back this season?
I’ll take the easy one first. There’s no way that Greene plays most third downs, of course unless it’s a 3rd & inches situation of some kind. Third down backs are usually the guy who is better catching the ball, because more often than not a team is looking to convert a longer third down play by pass … say more than four yards.
As far as the split, let’s assume all the backs are happy with their contracts and play in 2009. I did some quick math and from looking at 2008 backs, here was the split:
Thomas Jones: 76%
Leon Washington: 20%
Tony Richardson: 3%
Jesse Chatman: 1%
From yards, to YPC average, to touchdowns, Leon Washington was the most effective player whenever he touched the ball. He scored more times with less carries, had more yards with less carries (all comparatively) than Jones did. For Leon to not see the ball significantly more would be a crime, but he’s also someone who you can’t expect to shoulder the load. When you consider that this team will run the ball a lot more than they did in 2008, that has to factor in as well. Better to burn out Thomas Jones and drop him when the season ends than ruin Leon a la Brian Westbrook seemingly every other year. With the addition of Shonn Greene that of course is the big wild card. But I think they’ll let him take the carries when the clock is winding down rather than punish Thomas unnecessarily. Keeping in mind that the Jets could very well run the ball with these fellas 100-150 more times than they did last season.
Of course my guessing is just that, but here’s what I might expect to see in 2009:
Thomas Jones: 40%
Leon Washington: 35%
Shonn Greene: 13%
Richardson/Caulcrick: 2%
From Scott P. on L.I.: Lets face it ,we have question marks in almost every area. Do we have credible Wrs after JC? Can we establish a pass rush? Will we remain injury free for two years in a row to help our severe lack of depth? Will KJ hold up and be an asset more than just half the season? Will we acquire that all important TE? Is Rex really HC material? Do we have our QB of the future on board? I know all teams have questions ,but the jets are off the scale! Realistically, what do you see the jets record in 09 and do you think they simply are a couple of years away from making real noise and only under competent TOP management?
I do agree that there are a lot of questions, and I think that was half the reason I was so crushed at first that the Jets draft went the way it did. With depth/future needs on both lines, running back, wide receiver, tight end, and arguably corner, that the team funneled their picks into three players (minus at least two potential pinch starters via trade) was frustrating, and it set me off on draft day. I think we’re agreed that it’s virtually ensured that the Jets next draft class has to inject life into the team all over the place, and it might be one of the very most crucial for this regime a la 2006’s class if they want to build themselves into a long-term, legitimate contender.
With all that said:
See my answer below on WRs.
I think that Rex Ryan will get it done, but Calvin Pace didn’t make his life any easier, at least for the first four games.
Staying injury-free is tricky, and generally the numbers come back to get you the next year. The Jets were surprisingly healthy all season in 2008, so you know what that likely means for this season, and which plays into your concerns about depth, justifiably.
I think KJ can hold up if the team doesn’t grind him, but he’s a huge man, and he’s not getting any younger. To expect him to be more than a two-down player could be troubling. I also think that the team will give him some more help, playing more four man fronts on traditional running downs than they did in 2008.
As far as a TE. No, the hay for the most part is already in the barn. Maybe they’ll get lucky with a cutdown from another team, but at this point, they’re going to have to go with what they got. What they got is Bubba Franks as a blocker. And what I got is an ulcer.
The team has banked on that Mark Sanchez is their QB of the future. But I need to see him play first, but 16 collegiate starts has me more than a little concerned.
I think that this regime will live and die with Mark Sanchez. They’ve done everything else they can to bring in top free agents, make it known around the league that they are willing to spend, made good moves (for the most part) via the Draft … I’d take The Pepsi Challenge against most other teams with this front office. From here on out it comes down to how Mark Sanchez plays, how the team responds, and how they continue to build around him. It was definitely a big gamble and as you point out, the team is stretched thin this year, but I think it was one that the team was ready to make.
edthesportsfan asks via Twitter: .. who would you expect to really step up at WR? The Jets are extremely thin at the position with no game breakers.
Honestly, I think that letting Laveranues Coles walk was the move that will allow the Jets to break the logjam at WR. For three years, it’s been between Coles & Cotchery, and on the whole Cotchery has outperformed Coles over that span of time by most major derivative analytical metrics. Check Football Outsiders if you’re curious. Of course I would love for the Jets to have a Calvin Johnson level player lined up at WR, but that’s obviously very rare.
I think between what they have on the roster, they’ll work it through — though clearly there’s no one receiver solution to the problem. Chansi Stuckey is the WR who’s currently best positioned to benefit from Coles’ departure and his work ethic, skill and abilities so far lead me to think he’s the WR most likely to fill some of the gap that Coles leaves behind. Clowney’s speed will provide an interesting field stretching threat if they feel defenses are stacking the box and who knows what to expect from Brad Smith.
The real key here is Keller, who clearly knows he’s a key to this offense. In 2008 he caught 48 balls. 48 balls as a rookie who didn’t have complete knowledge the offense. On Twitter, he’s made it clear he wants to be one of the league’s very best Tight Ends, and he’s spending this month in Tampa working with a special trainer to get him ready for the season. Bent and I drooled at the thought of Keller in Schottenheimer’s offense last year, and with a year under his belt, and some extracurricular passing workouts with Sanchez already, I think he’s primed to pick up the slack Coles leaves behind. What makes him so valuable in this offense is his versatility. He can beat a Linebacker inside with his speed and athleticism, and can be too physical for corners or even safeties on the perimeter.
With a green QB leading the team in 2009, Tight Ends and check down RBs are often a QBs best friend, and for that reason, Keller might have a monster year. We’ll see how the season goes, but if Keller has a big year and the Jets front office deserves all the credit for moving back into the first round to target the 2008 Draft’s very first pass-catcher.
One point to make. As far as how this will all play out? It’s good that the Jets have a few options to move around for different plays, but if Sanchez or Clemens has to make more than one or two reads to find the open man, it might not go so well for the team this season. The Jets would be wise to run a one-two-throw it away offense when they pass the ball, at least until their QB finds a rhythm and gains confidence.
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I like your splits between the backs. More touches for Washington, and Greene gives Jones a breather as the feature back. Nice.
And I think that the “logjam” quote at WR has some validity. I certainly hope that Clowney or Stuckey steps up. And right again on Brad Smith; who knows what we’ll get out of him. hope Rex can light a fire under him.
I think every team has question marks. I don’t think we are that far from playoff material. We all know how close we were last year.
Are we that much better or worse ??? minus like 9 INT’s and we could have done something.
In case anyone wants to know, the Ravens rushed an NFL high 592 times last season, here was the breakdown (the rest of the 5% were spread among 6 different players):
McClain-232 carries, 39%
McGahee-170 carries, 29%
Rice-107 carries, 18%
Flacco 52 carries, 9%
Although Green is more of a McClain-type than TJ, I expect Jones to get the bulk of the carries. Leon is the Rice-type back. But, this breakdown would suggest that Green might have a bigger role in the offense, maybe as much as 30% of the carries and I think he might have more carries than Leon, who should get around 100 carries, but more than that might expose him to too much punishment (I’d rather see him with a Kevin Faulk-like 60 receptions…Faulk only had 83 carries to 58 receptions). Green is an “old” rookie, so there’s no time to bring him along slow. I also expect either Clemens or Sanchez may run more than we would like, but 9% (or over 50 carries) seems too high.
Thanks. I think that Leon’s role is much more a sure thing than RIce’s was as a rookie … but it’s hard to really say :)
Tim Graham on his AFC East blog on ESPN.com has Dustin Keller as his lead AFC “breakout” player:
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nflnation/0-9-29/AFC-s-breakout-players.html
I like Jones …. butis there any thought to just make Greene our #1 guy ? Is that out of the question ? The trend seems to be; guys fresh out of college with some speed an power (Lynch) do pretty well.
I think Greene is the wild card in this whole offense. If this guy runs like a beast and becomes a #1 guy EVERYONE gets better from it……WR’s QB’s Leon.
Just 1 point
Thomas 40%
Leon 35%
Greene 13%
Caulcrick 2%
Only Adds up to 90% :)
Bassett,
Not sure that I agree with you because there was no way that Harbaugh knew going into the season what McClain could do and he ends up with the bulk of the carries. I think he had an idea of where Rice fit and 107 carries (31 more than Leon last year) are nothing to sneeze at. My point is that Rice had a role, like Leon has a role and that role should be Faulk-like–80-100 carries and 55-65 receptions. Let Green and TJ take the bulk of the between the tackles grinding, reserve Leon for 3rd downs, obvious passing downs, 2-minute offense and the hurry up. Keep him fresh and use him as a tactical weapon.
good answers, but I honestly think that Sanchez won’t start. Don’t forget that when Clemens was given the chance, he had virtually no offensive line or weapons. Also Clemens is very familar with our offense obvisously and I think he can do big things this year. Also, another long shot, just going to throw this out there, David Clowney will be the best receiver on the Jets this year.
It is also notable that TJ, even statistically, was more productive than McClain. Mc only totalled 900 yds and averaged less than 4 yds/carry. TJ, even with a drop-off should be between 4 and 4.5. Also as Bassett pointed out, Leon is well established vs. Rice who is a kid from a solid but not oustanding program where he had 10,000 carries a week.
I think Baltimore’s situation was different. It was a “run-first” team with a rookie QB. The point is that Baltimore’s offense was still productive despite a rookie QB and their backs averaged a collective 4.0 YPC. The Baltimore model is a good one for the Jets. I think TJ has more second-level speed than either McClain or McGahee, so I would expect that he’d be a little better and the Jets OL is better than the Ravens’. But, TJ’s career YPC is 4.0 and if the Jets run the ball close to 600 times, I’d expect his YPC (4.5 in ‘08) to revert back to his average. The X factor is what Greene can do…he has the potential to be a Bettis-like battering ram that is dangerous if he turns the corner. Also, back to Leon, I don’t think it matters at all whether Leon is more established than Rice, I think his role should be similar– Faulk-like and Faulk is more established as an NFL RB than either Rice or Leon. Leon’s a role player, not an every down back. Look at what happens to Brian Westbrook when he gets too many carries…his effectiveness wanes and he gets injured. Leon as a situational threat with 8 carries and 4 receptions (or more) a game sounds right to me. Leon’s too valuable to expose to every-down punishment.
Its time for the jets to go after Matt Jones now!
Offense (Coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer)
QB: Mark Sanchez** Highest paid player in team history enters the league with only 16 collegiate starts. Has played in a pro style system, but hasn’t faced pro style obstacles.
RB: Thomas Jones Domineering O-line helped him lead the AFC with 1,312 yards rushing. Now the soon-to-be 31-year-old thinks he deserves a new contract.
RB: Leon Washington Also looking for a new deal, only may have a legitimate case for one. Is this team’s only source of big-time speed and quickness.
FB: Tony Richardson Sagacious 15th-year veteran who could see an expanded role as the offense becomes more power-oriented.
WR: Jerricho Cotchery Team’s leading receiver last year, but someone had to be. More of a really good No. 2 than No. 1.
WR: Chansi Stuckey Better runner than his timed-speed indicates. May need to bulk up if he wants a fulltime role.
WR: Brad Smith Choppy running style affords him good change-of-direction. But it’s time to be more than just a gadget player.
TE: Dustin Keller Athletic receiving tight end who should see more diversity in his routes this season. Provides next to nothing as a blocker.
TE: Bubba Franks Look, Bubba, we love ya––how could we not love a guy named Bubba?––but it’s time to hang ‘em up. Your 40-time will soon surpass your weight.
LT: D’Brickashaw Ferguson In his fourth year is good but not great. Excellent agility, has improved consistency in pass pro, but needs to be fiercer on the ground.
LG: Alan Faneca Run-blocking mobility remains top-notch. Pass-blocking was an issue at times last year.
C: Nick Mangold Coming off first Pro Bowl. Forms excellent partnership with Faneca because both men clear paths at the second level.
RG: Brandon Moore Arguably New York’s best lineman last season. Has great downhill power.
RT: Damien Woody Has looked more like the former Patriot version of Damien Woody than the former Lion version. Can he stay figuratively, but not literally, hungry?
6 OL: Wayne Hunter Proof that the best O-line in the AFC is also the shallowest.
Defense (Coordinator: Mike Pettine)
LDE: Shaun Ellis Wore down a little last year, which is odd considering his tendency to––how can we put this?––“conserve his energy” at times.
NT: Kris Jenkins Has transitioned from three-technique to zero-technically masterfully. Brute force allows him to collapse blocking schemes.
RDE: Marques Douglas* Far from spectacular, though one of the best run-defending linemen in the game. He’s a virtuoso vet in Rex Ryan’s system.
2 DT: Howard Green* Good value free agent pickup. His sharing backup duties with Sione Pouha should help keep Kris Jenkins fresh come December.
3 DE: Mike Devito Can contribute as a run-stopper for a few snaps a game, thanks to phenomenal leverage.
LOLB: Bryan Thomas Sound agility, but may not have enough ferocity to flourish in this scheme.
LILB: Bart Scott* Will be a good emotional foil to the more subdued David Harris. Intelligence and intensity, plus experience as a Raven, make him the quarterback of the front seven.
RILB: David Harris Instincts compensate for just decent speed. Stout, productive tackler who can operate in multiple locations on the field.
ROLB: Calvin Pace Passes every eyeball test with flying colors. But in reality, he’s a somewhat ho-hum player. A lot of his sacks are coverage sacks. Still, could become a poor man’s Terrell Suggs.
5 LB: Vernon Gholston Has a chance to make Rex Ryan look very good (and Eric Mangini look very bad).
CB: Darrelle Revis T.O. will know the young Pro Bowler’s name before too long.
CB: Lito Sheppard* Looking for a fresh start after ugly ending to Philly career. He’d better play well––the Jets have a $10 million option on him next year.
NB: Dwight Lowery Good fluidity, and has a feel for stopping passes inside. Can start, but he’s more natural in the slot.
SS: Jim Leonhard* A Rex Ryan favorite from Baltimore.
FS: Kerry Rhodes Already a top-five safety who should erupt as a playmaking rover in 2009.
6 DB: Drew Coleman Gives up 30 pounds to safety Eric Smith, which is why he’ll probably be limited to cornerbacking assignments.
Special Teams
K: Jay Feely High character veteran with good accuracy from long-distance.
P: Reggie Hodges Simply put, must punt better than he did in ’08.
RS: Leon Washington One of the most dangerous return weapons in football. Can shake defenders while maintaining top speed.
kc. – that was an interesting read. Where did it come from?
Couple of comments:
RB: Leon Washington – Is this team’s only source of big-time speed and quickness.
What about Clowney? I know he’s probably only a role player, but still…
FB: Tony Richardson – Sagacious
I love that they used the worse sagacious as it reminds me of how Bill and Ted or Wayne and Garth would describe something saggy, which the aged T-Rich probably is. (I realize it’s probably a soft g and refers to how wise he is, but still…)
TE: Bubba Franks – Your 40-time will soon surpass your weight.
Good line, but it makes no sense. If he runs a 4.9 forty then how is that going to exceed 265 pounds, or whatever it is he weights? Anyway, as long as he’s faster than Robert Turner or Wayne Hunter, he serves a purpose.
RG: Brandon Moore – Arguably New York’s best lineman
No he isn’t.
CB: Lito Sheppard – He’d better play well––the Jets have a $10 million option on him next year.
I doubt he’ll get the 10m regardless of how he plays, so he’s really just playing for a new deal like any prospective free agent. And the Jets aren’t on the hook for that money if he doesn’t play well.
6 DB: Drew Coleman Gives up 30 pounds to safety Eric Smith, which is why he’ll probably be limited to cornerbacking assignments.
And because he’s a cornerback?
K: Jay Feely – High character veteran
Really?
P: Reggie Hodges Simply put, must punt better than he did in ’08.
That’s if he makes the team. Unlikely, since they already cut him once and only brought him back because Eric Wilbur broke a window.
That wasn’t supposed to be a total hatchet job, most of the other comments made perfect sense.
sorry Bent,couldnt find the link again. I (with you) dissagree with the same points,but really did find it an interesting read.
Here it is…
http://www.nfltouchdown.com/new-york-jets-2009-quick-hits/
[...] a fair point, but one that’s boiled down. For more on the subject see our tweetmailbag. I think that the Jets corps of receivers can fill the gap, and with less balls thrown their way, [...]