Interview: Football Outsider Sean McCormick on the Jets
In the heels of the digital release of Pro Football Almanac 2009, our good friends at Football Outsiders were gracious enough to answer some of our questions about the Jets and the upcoming season.
Answering the barrage is Sean McCormick, who comments here at TJB as the sage seanmac31. Over the years we’ve known Sean, he’s a die-hard Jets fan, who will fairly look at issues from an analytical standpoint, which is why we respect his opinion so much.
Q: There are unsettled situations with the QB, WR, TE & RB for a variety of reasons. What do we know for sure about this team?
A: Not much. The offensive line was excellent last year, ranking second in the league in Adjusted Line Yards (NOTE: a statistic to measure how effective linemen are at run blocking -Bassett) and they were dominant at the point of attack everywhere but at left tackle (sorry, D’Brick), so if the Jets can keep everyone healthy, they should be able to build the kind of ball control attack that Rex Ryan wants.
As we’ll touch on more later, though, that’s a rather big if, as the Jets are due for some injuries on the offensive side of the ball this year after going through last season almost injury-free. Unfortunately, the only things we can really count on are that the schedule is going to be much tougher and that the Jets are unlikely to be as healthy as they were last year.
Q: Scheme is important, but how good are the personnel of this defense? Can they approach the production of what the Ravens have done over the past few years during the course of the 2009 season?
A: A lot of people are expecting the Jets to become an elite defense now that Rex Ryan is here. Unfortunately, it doesn’t usually translate that hiring a defensive coordinator from a good defense results in an immediate upgrade. Over the last twelve or thirteen years, unless you’re bringing in Bill Parcells or Tony Dungy, it’s actually been much more effective to promote a defensive coach from within if you want an immediate boost.
Two other Ravens defensive coordinators have made the jump to another team-Mike Nolan and Marvin Lewis-and both achieved only minor improvement in their first year with their new club. Now each of those guys went to clubs that were truly bereft of defensive talent, so you’d like to think that Ryan can do more right off the bat, but the Jets had significant holes in the secondary and with their pass rush, and it’s unclear if those holes have been adequately addressed.
The Jets defense had some real strengths, too, especially in the first half of the season when Kris Jenkins was singlehandedly shutting down the run, but they’re still too vulnerable in the secondary once you get past Darrelle Revis, and unless Vernon Gholston comes roaring to life, there’s no steady pass rush presence for Ryan to rely on. The Ravens are going to have the best defense in the league this year, with or without Rex Ryan. The Jets might be a bit better than they were, but no, they won’t be as good as Baltimore.
Q: Injuries to starters was something that the Jets skated on in 2008, how well are the Jets prepared for the pendulum swinging the other way?
A: Not very, which is a serious problem, as the Jets were one of the least-injured teams in the NFL last year. Injuries usually regress to the mean the following season, so it’s likely that the Jets will have their depth tested this year. That’s not good, as this is a team with really minimal depth at most spots outside of running back and possibly linebacker.
There is no viable backup at offensive tackle, and there’s barely enough depth at wide receiver to field a starting unit, much less one that can go three or four wide and attack defenses. The Jets already are so thin at tight end that they’ll have to make a move in training camp or preseason to bolster the roster. Mike Tannenbaum has done a good job of adding quality players through selective trade-ups, but it’s meant fewer overall draft choices, and therefore less in the way of depth. The Mark Sanchez trade, which was one that Tannenbaum really couldn’t turn down, nevertheless removed two starters from a team that doesn’t have depth to spare.
Q: Break down the Mark Sanchez trade/pick and what it means to this team in the long-term.
A: Well, from a strict value standpoint, you have to love the fact that the Jets didn’t have to give up any future draft picks in order to secure Sanchez. If he’s the player the Jets think he is, they did a great job of landing him without significantly denting their maneuvering room going forward. Most people seemed to prefer Sanchez to Stafford if you take scheme out of the equation, and we love the accuracy he has shown while working in a pro system. That said, he’s a high-risk pick due to his extremely low start total.
When you are using a top five selection on a quarterback, you ideally want a guy who has started about 40-45 games in college while maintaining a high completion percentage. Sanchez has played in sixteen games, which is fewer than any first-round quarterback taken in the last fifteen years. It’s a riskier pick than people realize, because perceptions about how a rookie quarterback should perform were thrown way out of whack by Matt Ryan and, to a lesser extent, Joe Flacco. The odds are very good that Sanchez is going to struggle, and New York is not a place where the fans or media are particularly known for their patience.
In the long term, it means that the Jets are done looking for a quarterback for a few years, and that they can hopefully settle on an offensive philosophy that works with what Sanchez does best-utilizing his play action fake and his ability to make accurate throws while on the move.
Q: What is the one annual publication that would cause doubt to any fan’s true level of commitment to the NFL if they didn’t buy it?
A: I’m biased, certainly, (we’d hope so! -Bassett) but without a doubt, it’s Pro Football Almanac 2009. Not only do the advanced statistics give you a better understanding of why teams win or lose, but the team essays and player comments are really a pleasure to read.
A ton of work goes into the book, and unlike the magazine publications, PFA 2009 is the kind of thing you want to keep around as a reference throughout the season. I’ve still got all of my copies dating back to 2005. There’s a PDF version of the book currently available at footballoutsiders.com. Alternately, a hard copy is coming out in a few weeks and will be available through Amazon.
Filed under: Interviews, Main Page
Good interview! I hope seanmac will revisit this post to answer some of the questions and comments which will inevitably arise.
As a general comment (not just specifically in response to the comments in this article), while I view the statistical anaysis as a useful tool, I don’t buy into it completely and tend to base my views around what I see on the field, without paying much attention to the FO metrics. However, I find it particularly interesting that the conclusions drawn by those that do, nearly always accord with my own.
My view of the negative FO projection this year though is that there are so many unknown variables (coach, QB, new defensive personnel etc) that the Jets probably have the potential to differ from their projection that any other team in the league. Let’s just hope it’s on the positive side!
Let Sanchez ride the pine for a season. Clemens knows the offense and will be immediately effective. If Sanchez starts and busts his first season, he is going to have battle uphill to regain the confidence of his teammates, the coaches, and the fans. If he is our franchise QB, then why not set him up to succeed in the long term? I just don’t want to see him get beat down his first year.
I think you have to go with Sanchez.. If we start Clemens and he winds up being good then we are now sitting 60 mil on the bench. At that point everyone will know that we need to get rid of a QB and we won’t have any trade value…..don’t give me the Cassell thing either because we don’t have a friendly GM on another team.
However, I too believe in team chemistry and energy over stats. Sure, stats are important but each year we find things that “weren’t supposed to happen” happen(falcons,Flacco and dolphins). I really believe our defense and offense will surprise the league. We have talent all over this team and I think we finally have someone with some fire to get us going.
There have been plenty of winning teams with deficiencies…..so why not us ?
It always seems to me that every prediction comes down to Sanchez, Faneca and Jenkins. Sanchez has to perform adequately and the other two have to stay healthy. I have my own issues with Sanchez, but I just don’t know what another year as a starter for USC would have done for him. Practices against USC’s defense are probably more challenging than facing most Pac 10 competition or the football program formerly known as Notre Dame. Moreover, another year of starts still would’ve left him far shy of the magic 40-45 starts that are predictive of success, unless your name is Drew Olson. Sanchez, IMO, has quite a few attributes that could make him a lot better than the pundits predict. He’s very smart, he’s been tutored by the best QB coaches since his junior year in high school, he’s accurate, he has great footwork, a very quick release and he throws very well on the run. There’s no substitute for actual NFL game experience, which he needs to progress. But, he comes into his first game with a load of talent and a good football mind (I do wish he were an inch taller and stood taller when he threw, but his quick footwork and release may make up for his, relative, shortness). Nothing puts Football Outsiders’ predictions out of whack more than better than predicted QB play (see the Titans, Falcons, Dolphins and, even, Steelers predictions from 2008).
As for Faneca and Big Jenks, they’re pretty much irreplaceable. The OL, however, has better depth than most people think because Woody can play all the other OL positions. Putting Wayne Hunter at RT and Woody at LG weakens the OL, but it would still be a pretty good run-blocking OL. There’s no easy fix for Big Jenks, my guess is Ryan would have to go with more 4-3 (or really 4-4) looks, which would put stress on the secondary. But, the run D will be okay as long as Harris and Scott are in the middle. Or, I’m sure Detroit would trade Grady Jackson for a 4th rounder.
All the other question marks on the Jets, IMO, are overblown (WR, TE, Lito, etc.). If Sanchez, Faneca and Big Jenks play up to their potential for 16 weeks, the Jets are a playoff team.
Sackdance99,
I completly agree with your post. I bought a new Gastenau jersey by the way!
We have a stronger team “right now” than most of the “talking heads” think. The Jets are not as popular national as some of the other teams. Most of the fan base is from Long Island Queens, Nassau and Suffolk counties.
I think Mark will turn out to be our Fran. QB and our Defense will dominate. what do you think 99?
Charles D
I think Sack is fairly on-target here.
The OL and DL are the areas that fill me with dread. I want to see both coaching staffs coddling these guys, making them hot cocoa and tucking them into bed each night, and never allowing them to pick up anything heavier than a newspaper when they’re off the field (no helping the wife move the furniture this year). They are our “Golden Goose.” Anything happens to Jenks, and we go back to no-name RBs casually tossing 100+-yd. days out on the field week after week. Anything happens to Mangold or Faneca, we’re right back to 2007, and whichever QB we end up with becomes too concerned with staying a) alive, and b) upright. Just like ‘07. Yuck…
QB? QB questions always come down to franchise schemes, which come out of franchise philosophies. That is, some O’s are based on, and built around, a flamboyant, gunslinger star QB — Namath, Montana, Favre, Marino, Elway, etc., etc. Some teams are based on a smart, caretaker QB who can manage the “system” installed, stay out of the spotlight (i.e., attention from screwing up) and let the running game or defense take you to the Super Bowl. SB histories are chock full of both types of teams. Both can be, and have been, successful. You can win with either. The Trick is, you just have to be supremely clear on which and who you are, build your team accordingly, and stay true to that concept and never waver. THAT’S what will start you sinking like a stone.
What the Jets have now is the latter. This is clearly a system team and has been for years. This is what the calls for Clemens are about. All of Sanchez’ strengths that folks write about are pointed towards how great his skills will be within this system. I’ve seen no story yet mention him as a stud-level QB with HOF-caliber individual skills who would make opponents game plan him as they did the guys mentioned above. He would be planned for as the Jets’ QB, along with the planning for the rest of the squad. No DC is currently staying up nights, worried about “Stopping Sanchez.”
So, since we’re a system team, you insert the best manager to the QB slot. Salary at this point is Tanny’s problem, not Sexy’s. Sexy has to put his best chance of winning out on the field 16 times this autumn. Period. Or else he loses a) his locker room, and/or b) the fans. So, it’s a competition in the true sense of the word. If Sanchez of the Many Millions isn’t ready to beat out Clemens by September, that’s Tanny’s headache. If we go 4-0, 3-1 in September, Rex will own NY (especially with this harsh schedule) no matter who’s at QB. With these results, with Clemens at the helm, you’ll hear NO ONE screaming for a QB change (except in the Tanny household). At 2-2? OK, you’ve got lots of stories written. At 1-3, 0-4, the QB gets switched, no matter WHO gets the opening day start.
At this point, my money is on Clemens to start in Houston. This gives them the best manager, with the best experience of the system, with the best chance to avoid embarrassing screw-ups. This way, you always have the fall-back position of changing QBs to the kid when warranted. Having to bail on Franchez a few weeks into the season screws up your franchise planning for years to come.
The whole reason for fan yowling now is for the team to become better so we don’t have to sit here and yowl. The point’s not to have them placate us in the short term so we’ll end up having to yowl for years without end.
If you look at all the answers to Bassett’s questions — they are all Negative. Let me put the Positive spin on things.
QB, WR, TE, RB – Sanchez shows poise, from day one, and he shows an incredible accuracy while throwing on the run. David Clowney steps up and, with the help of some great play-action by Sanchez, becomes the deep threat that Jet fans have been aching for. Cotchery fills in admirably for Coles. Stuckey shows that he is a talented slot receiver. Keller becomes the most dangerous target on the team, running by linebackers and running over secondary players. Our well balanced running game leads the league in all categories.
Personnel on defense and comparison to the Ravens -
Marques Douglas, Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard, & Lito Sheppherd take an already tough defense to the next level. Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine have the players buying into their system and the defense is all over the field. Gholston, Murrell, and Rhodes are used correctly and have opposing QB’s running for their lives. Who care’s what the Ravens defense does.
Injuries to Starters – The team remains relatively healthy due to the incredible job that the training staff does, throughout the year.
Break Down the Sanchez Trade/Pick – Turns out to be an outstanding move by Tannenbaum. Sanchez is everything that Rex and Tanny thought he would be. He picks up the game plan with ease and shows the type of football savvy that Pennington gave us, while putting alot more on his throws. He shows that his performance in his limited college career was a direct representation of what he would do in the pro’s. He gives us years of pleasure and we forget about Tom Brady.
As for our schedule — if we get our butts kicked, it was tough. If we kick butt, it was easy. I say we kick some butt.
REALISTICALLY,I think the JETS will be 10-6 this year…..(MAYBE,11-5).
I know everyone can not wait but the speculation is mind numbing. When you start talking about injuries for the success of the team that’s when I stop reading. NO ONE KNOWS what will happen during a season and if you are going to start predicting injuries it’s just totally useless information imo.
miketaliaferro, i wonder what the review for Brady looked like coming out. All you have to do is watch Sanchez play and you’ll see a strong accurate arm and the guy is 10X smarter than Farve.
Jets have to be aggresive this season because of the DEs and OLBs that cant cover.
seanmac is a good writer with valuable insights. But he made it clear months ago that he and football outsiders see nothing but misery for the Jets in 2009.
As Harvlis noted all his answers were negative.
Sean may be right, but prognostication is just that. Predicting the future. I’m happy to wait for the future to prove them wrong. Or not. It really could be 11-5, 6-10, or somewhere in between.
Last year I made a nice piece of change betting the over on Jet wins for the season. (I got the line at 7 1/2, 110/100 by making sure to lay my bet the day BEFORE we traded for Farve. After the trade it was 8, 135/100.)
I hope that FO’s viewpoint is shared by those who set the lines this year.
The answers were negative, because I think that’s the way the metrics work when there is an unknown quantity. If anything that’s good, because if FO’s projection is based on the worst case scenario in every case and says the Jets will be 6-10, then 6-10 is as bad as it’s likely to get and if some or all of those things go in their favor, you’ve got the potential for double digit wins.
I feel much more comfortable with that than with a team picked to go 9-7, but based on lots of things working out in their favor. Maybe that team is at best a nine win team but at worst a five win team, whereas the Jets are at best a 12 win team but at worst a 6 win team. Simplistic, I know, but you get the idea. The Jets have a high floor compared to their projection and a high ceiling too.
StvDoe – it’s interesting that you chose to mention over/under, because Seanmac himself was involved in a conversation about that here just over a month ago and gave some interesting tips:
http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/06/02/link-a-return-to-glory-in-09/
miket,
I think it’s premature to say what kind of QB Sanchez is, yet. I don’t think he’s just a “game manager” type and he’s not a “gunslinger.” With his mobility, ability to throw on the run, arm strength to make all throws, accuracy, quick release and high football IQ, he reminds me of Steve Young (yes, I know Young was Montana’s caddy and was in, perhaps, the greatest offensive system of all-time, I’m just comparing their skill sets). With the right system to exploit his football talents, Sanchez could become a star. KC, on the other hand, doesn’t have near the ability of Sanchez and his only alleged advantage is that he is less inexperienced than Sanchez. Unless Sanchez stinks in pre-season, he starts.
[...] thejetsblog.com » Interview: Football Outsider Sean McCormick on … Footballbetter-understanding, exact, game, listed-at-their, real, reviewed-the-top, team, the-advanced, their-real, two-inches, were-listed [...]
“I have my own issues with Sanchez, but I just don’t know what another year as a starter for USC would have done for him. ”
Ahh! But that isn’t the point. Its not what another year at USC would do for Sanchez, but what another year of watching him play would do to _US_ (and scouts opinions). Another year could expose some weaknesses or show us he isn’t what we thought he was, or show us he is in fact solid.
That is why all the starts are important for a first round pick — much more material to cover when scouting and looking at a player. If someone starts 50 + games (say Phillip Rivers who holds the record I think) and is picked in the first round, its a less risky pick.
bart scott will improve the pass rush and so will calvin pace if he isn’t used to cover tight ends but instead get to the QB
Do FO’s run stats for the O Line take into account that defenses had to respect Farve’s arm and gunslinger mentality?
They will be playing 8 in the box again this year folks, until this offense proves it can get the passing game going. Until they do, the run blocking stats are going way down and the running game will be a big disappointment.
Everyone is focused on the defense, but this offense may be downright offensive.
As for injuries, here I agree with Sean, stats are stats and if the Jets were the least injured team last year, with no starts missed on the offensive line, it is logical to predict more injuries than last year. Not automatic that they become the MOST injured team, but a return to norm will have a big impact.
Lastly, you can argue about the schedule all you want but it can not possibly be easier than last year.
6-10 is a very logical prediction, and if injuries are higher than norm and/or Mr. T’s draft picks fail to produce (not like there is not precedent for this result) the Jets could be in the running for a top five pick in 2010.
I don’t think the metrics do take that into account and I agree that it might be harder to run this year, but even a slight step backwards would still be a pretty decent running game.
In the second half of last year, most teams had realized the threat of a deep ball was non-existent (due to Favre’s injury), so most of them were playing 8 in the box a lot of the time anyway. That meant there was nobody at the second level, so when Faneca delivered a crushing block over right guard and got them out to the second level, that was one reason why they broke so many long runs in the second half (Leon v Tenn, TJ v Denver, Leon v Buffalo).
Overall, the running game WAS less effective in that second half, which is part of the reason they abandoned it in a few games, although they might have been better served by trying to run to set up the pass rather than the other way round, especially with an injured QB. It did play into their hands a bit though as there are few guards in the league capable of opening a big hole to the second level as well as Faneca, so the potential for big runs is still there.
Looking at the flipside, if the other team does put 8 in the box, at least that might mean that the QB’s job is easier, so it will be a gentler introduction to NFL coverage packages for Sanchez (if he starts) and could be ideal to enable him to gradually grow in confidence and expand his repertoire over the course of the season (which is not unlike what happened with Cassel last year, come to think of it).
Statistics are for measuring and not predicting.
Is it really surprising that a team with one of the best training facilities has a low number of injuries?
Is it possible that the training staff is good at doing it’s job?
Is it possible that one training staff can be better than others?
Is it possible that having better players(Faneca, Woody, Jenkins) at all positions keeps other players from carrying too much of the physical burden?
Yeah the Jets will probably have more injuries next year.
Does that mean that no one else in the league or division is going to get injured?
Is it impossible that Tom Brady’s knee could blow out again, or that TO could get his stuck up his ass for half a season, or that chad Pennington(who is due for an injury) or Ronnie Brown will get injured.
Also, schedule schmedule. Seriously, no one knows the strength of the schedule yet because no one has played any games next season.
Everybody just relax. take a deep breath and imagine all of the star/ starting players that are perennially injured on teams we play next year being injured when we play them and it will be alright.
The only reason teams didn’t put in 8 in the box as much last year was so they could have enough people in coverage to catch Favre’s wild passes from his busted wing. It had little to do with respecting the long ball.
I kind of disagree with the “injuries regress to the mean” theory.
Every team has an equivalent chance of suffering bad luck with injuries as every other team. Past history should have no effect. If I toss a coin 9 times and get 8 heads and 1 tails, the probability of a head or a tail is still 50:50 even if a tail is “due”. In fact, you might think there’s something wrong with the coin, so maybe a tail is LESS likely.
In a similar vein, the fact that the Jets stayed healthy last year might mean that they have good medical staff, dietary procedures, conditioning, stretching regimes and so on, so maybe they were just better prepared to not suffer injuries. If a team had loads of injuries last year, maybe that’s because they have a bunch of ill-prepared, injury prone players, so it’s unlikely they would “regress to the mean” by having everyone stay healthy.
On the flip side, some of the Jets’ key starters are kind of old, but that’s equally true (moreso in some cases) for plenty of other teams and – other than Harris, who missed time anyway last year – it’s not like they have any Abrahams or Penningtons that you can usually count on to miss time.
However, I do expect the Jets to have injuries this year, just because ‘what goes around comes around’ and because they’re the Jets. So, again, I don’t agree with the statistical analysis, but still draw the same conclusion!
ESD and I pretty much posted the same thing at the same time there.
Bent
I disagree.
Okay, maybe not.
While there are differences in the quality of staffs as far as keeping teams injured-we just ran an article on this in last year’s book-it only goes so far. Dallas was able to sustain several seasons of nearly injury-free play, which enabled them to outperform their projection for two seasons running. Last year, the injuries caught up with them and their record reflected it. The Jets staff has been in the bottom third of the league in terms of keeping their players healthy, so it’s more likely that last year was a fluke than that the Jets benefited from a staff so expert that it kept their players all healthy.
Anyway, the important thing to realize is that from a statistical point of view, last year went about as well as it possibly could-next to no injuries and a very easy schedule-and the team went 9-7. Now in order for them to improve, it’s going to require a rookie quarterback who started for one year in college to outperform Brett Favre, and with an inferior cast of receivers. It’s nice to be optimistic before the year starts-obviously the fan in me secretly thinks they’re going 11-5-but it’s far more likely that last year’s 9-7 represents the absolute ceiling and that 6-10 is the more likely final mark.
[...] Football Outsiders contributor, Sean McCormick, participated in a recent Q&A with The Jets Blog, and offered a gloomy forecast. The Jets were one of the least-injured teams in the NFL last year. [...]