Anyway, the important thing to realize is that from a statistical point of view, last year went about as well as it possibly could-next to no injuries and a very easy schedule-and the team went 9-7. Now in order for them to improve, it’s going to require a rookie quarterback who started for one year in college to outperform Brett Favre, and with an inferior cast of receivers. It’s nice to be optimistic before the year starts-obviously the fan in me secretly thinks they’re going 11-5-but it’s far more likely that last year’s 9-7 represents the absolute ceiling and that 6-10 is the more likely final mark.

I disagree.

Okay, maybe not.

Every team has an equivalent chance of suffering bad luck with injuries as every other team. Past history should have no effect. If I toss a coin 9 times and get 8 heads and 1 tails, the probability of a head or a tail is still 50:50 even if a tail is “due”. In fact, you might think there’s something wrong with the coin, so maybe a tail is LESS likely.

In a similar vein, the fact that the Jets stayed healthy last year might mean that they have good medical staff, dietary procedures, conditioning, stretching regimes and so on, so maybe they were just better prepared to not suffer injuries. If a team had loads of injuries last year, maybe that’s because they have a bunch of ill-prepared, injury prone players, so it’s unlikely they would “regress to the mean” by having everyone stay healthy.

On the flip side, some of the Jets’ key starters are kind of old, but that’s equally true (moreso in some cases) for plenty of other teams and – other than Harris, who missed time anyway last year – it’s not like they have any Abrahams or Penningtons that you can usually count on to miss time.

However, I do expect the Jets to have injuries this year, just because ‘what goes around comes around’ and because they’re the Jets. So, again, I don’t agree with the statistical analysis, but still draw the same conclusion!

Is it really surprising that a team with one of the best training facilities has a low number of injuries?

Is it possible that the training staff is good at doing it’s job?

Is it possible that one training staff can be better than others?

Is it possible that having better players(Faneca, Woody, Jenkins) at all positions keeps other players from carrying too much of the physical burden?

Yeah the Jets will probably have more injuries next year.

Does that mean that no one else in the league or division is going to get injured?

Is it impossible that Tom Brady’s knee could blow out again, or that TO could get his stuck up his ass for half a season, or that chad Pennington(who is due for an injury) or Ronnie Brown will get injured.

Also, schedule schmedule. Seriously, no one knows the strength of the schedule yet because no one has played any games next season.

Everybody just relax. take a deep breath and imagine all of the star/ starting players that are perennially injured on teams we play next year being injured when we play them and it will be alright.

The only reason teams didn’t put in 8 in the box as much last year was so they could have enough people in coverage to catch Favre’s wild passes from his busted wing. It had little to do with respecting the long ball.

In the second half of last year, most teams had realized the threat of a deep ball was non-existent (due to Favre’s injury), so most of them were playing 8 in the box a lot of the time anyway. That meant there was nobody at the second level, so when Faneca delivered a crushing block over right guard and got them out to the second level, that was one reason why they broke so many long runs in the second half (Leon v Tenn, TJ v Denver, Leon v Buffalo).

Overall, the running game WAS less effective in that second half, which is part of the reason they abandoned it in a few games, although they might have been better served by trying to run to set up the pass rather than the other way round, especially with an injured QB. It did play into their hands a bit though as there are few guards in the league capable of opening a big hole to the second level as well as Faneca, so the potential for big runs is still there.

Looking at the flipside, if the other team does put 8 in the box, at least that might mean that the QB’s job is easier, so it will be a gentler introduction to NFL coverage packages for Sanchez (if he starts) and could be ideal to enable him to gradually grow in confidence and expand his repertoire over the course of the season (which is not unlike what happened with Cassel last year, come to think of it).

They will be playing 8 in the box again this year folks, until this offense proves it can get the passing game going. Until they do, the run blocking stats are going way down and the running game will be a big disappointment.

Everyone is focused on the defense, but this offense may be downright offensive.

As for injuries, here I agree with Sean, stats are stats and if the Jets were the least injured team last year, with no starts missed on the offensive line, it is logical to predict more injuries than last year. Not automatic that they become the MOST injured team, but a return to norm will have a big impact.

Lastly, you can argue about the schedule all you want but it can not possibly be easier than last year.

6-10 is a very logical prediction, and if injuries are higher than norm and/or Mr. T’s draft picks fail to produce (not like there is not precedent for this result) the Jets could be in the running for a top five pick in 2010.

Ahh! But that isn’t the point. Its not what another year at USC would do for Sanchez, but what another year of watching him play would do to _US_ (and scouts opinions). Another year could expose some weaknesses or show us he isn’t what we thought he was, or show us he is in fact solid.

That is why all the starts are important for a first round pick — much more material to cover when scouting and looking at a player. If someone starts 50 + games (say Phillip Rivers who holds the record I think) and is picked in the first round, its a less risky pick.