Bent Gets Serious: So, Why DID They Cut Chris Baker?
In the wake of the Jets’ recent personnel moves, a common question that seems to be troubling Jets fans is this: Why did they cut Chris Baker in the first place? Some have even gone so far as to criticize the front office for not retaining his services.
However, I am not here to opine on that same thought. Instead, I will be demonstrating why the Jets not only did the right thing in releasing Baker, but that it was, in fact, kind of a no-brainer.
The Financials: The main factor in the decision to release Chris Baker was his contract situation. After grumbling his was through camp, Baker was finally given an extension which guaranteed him $9m if he played a certain percentage of offensive snaps during the 2008 season (which he did) and still remained on the roster on 1 March 2009. This essentially gave him all of 2008 to prove he deserved that king of money, but the Jets clearly felt his performance was not good enough. We’ll analyze the performance later.
$9m doesn’t sound that much, especially spread over a number of years, but it would still be a huge chunk of money to commit to a back-up when they had already committed so much money to far more important players. With Baker set to turn 30 this season, so how long could he reasonably be expected to play at a high enough level to be earning that kind of money? If it was three years, which could prove to be an optimistic estimate, the cap hit would average out at around $3m per year (actually it would be higher because he’d also earn some base salary in each of those years). $3m a year would put him in the top 15 cap numbers for tight ends, based on 2008 numbers. If he only lasted two years, $4.5m a year puts him in the top five, making it an extremely risky financial move.
The Performance – Pass Catching: So, does Baker’s performance merit anywhere near a top 15 tight end salary? A look at his pass catching statistics in 2008 show that he was 36th in receptions and 40th in yardage amongst NFL tight ends, with no touchdowns. Bear in mind that his playing time was more than it otherwise might have been because Bubba Franks missed half the season injured and Dustin Keller spent the first few games riding the pine and the last few in the doghouse. Then consider that the Jets figure to pass a lot less this season and it seems unlikely that those numbers will improve.
Those numbers? 21 catches for 194 yards. Baker didn’t have a single 50 yard game last season and only had 3 games where he exceeded 20 yards receiving (two of which the Jets lost anyway). So, it’s fair to say his impact in the passing game was minimal. In fact, even in his best year statistically, 2007, where he caught 41 passes for over 400 yards, he still wasn’t in the top 15 tight ends for receptions or yardage.
Football Outsiders’ statistical “Bakermetrics” tell us that Baker was actually the 25th ranked tight end last year. He has been in the top 20 for each of the four previous years, so there may even be cause for concern that he is starting to decline, especially when – while playing to justify his big money deal – Baker should have been more motivated than ever to produce.
As a final indication of his “fair market value”, the Patriots signed him to a contract where they can release him after two years and it will have only cost them $5.3m. They actually have six tight ends battling for three roster spots, which is indicative of the fact that there will be plenty of blocking tight ends available for the Jets in August.
The Performance – Blocking: “Ah, but you would expect Baker’s receiving numbers to drop.” I hear you say. “After all, he was relegated to more of a blocking role when they drafted Dustin Keller.” That’s true, but at the same time should lead to him being paid like someone with more of a blocking role rather than having a salary commensurate with the top pass catching tight ends in the league. However, let’s shift the focus to his blocking, anyway.
Blocking is always difficult to analyze. My eyes tell me that Baker was not much of a blocker when he came into the league, but improved to the point where he was solid in that area, albeit not a mauling blocker in the Brady/Becht mould. Statistical analysis is difficult to interpret, but let’s look at an example. This tells us the following:
1. He was a competent run blocker, although if you take his best three games (Ten, StL, Oak) out of the equation, he was barely better than average. The whole team graded out well in run blocking for those three games because the Jets had a lot of success running the ball, so it’s a stretch to say that Baker was integral in that success. Dustin Keller even had his best two run blocking grades of the year in the Titans and Raiders games.
2. He was below average in pass protection, giving up two sacks, one QB hit and two pressures. Dustin Keller graded out significantly better in this area.
These statistics lend some weight to what I thought all along. Baker is a decent blocker, but offers nothing that can’t be easily replaced, probably at a fraction of the price.
The “Dual Threat”: At this stage, you might think I’m missing the point. It wasn’t Baker’s pass catching that was important, nor was it the fact that his blocking is irreplaceable. It’s the fact he can do both, which means that the Jets aren’t “showing their hand” when he enters the game. After all, when Keller is at tight end, you know it’s a pass and when Robert Turner or Wayne Hunter comes in as tackle-eligible, you know it’s a run. Right?
That would be a good point, if Baker were actually used in that manner, but the reality is that he isn’t. Let’s turn to what the PFP said for the analysis of his career year in 2007:
Baker caught 17 of 19 passes thrown to him on first down for 209 yards … it was essentially the same play over and over: Baker lined up as the tight end in a trips formation or as a slot receiver, ran a flat pattern or a short hitch against a linebacker, turned upfield for a few steps, then hit the ground after a healthy 8-to-10 yard gain. Good stuff, but nothing that 25 tight ends can’t do just as well or better, which is why the Jets signed Bubba Franks and drafted Dustin Keller. Baker’s numbers don’t look as swell when you realize how often he lined up as a third or fourth wideout.
So, Baker did most of his damage in the passing game while split out in a zero-TE set, a role which Dustin Keller has already proven he is superior at, whether you look at his FO-DYAR ranking (6 places ahead of Baker last year) or his bare statistics (better in his rookie season than in the best season of Baker’s career.
When employed as an in-line TE, Baker usually stayed in to block, which we’ve already demonstrated he did capably, but not as well as a pure blocking TE, who would be much cheaper. The raw idea of a dual threat is somewhat overrated. Even a guy like Anthony Becht can leak out and catch a wide open pass – that’s how a guy with hands like him accumulates 20 career TDs. And does having a pure pass catcher like Keller in the game really reduce the effectiveness of the running game? It didn’t last season and it sure doesn’t seem to have affected Tomlinson to play on the same team as Antonio Gates.
The Attitude: Finally, having weighed up the analysis and decided it’s not financially viable to pay that kind of money for a guy who seems past his prime, has never had statistical productivity to merit such a sum and doesn’t offer anything that can’t easily be replicated by someone significantly cheaper (a chief concern for the Jets, having invested heavily in two top ten draft picks and several big money veterans), we need to consider whether he brings anything else to the team that it would be worth paying a premium for.
Is he a leader? Will he mentor the younger tight ends on the roster? Will he make personal sacrifices for the good of the team? He had a year to prove that and was obviously unable to do so. Having caused a distraction throughout camp in 2008 and constantly been calling out for more touches over the past few seasons, the Jets were finally able to shut him up by dangling a carrot of what he felt was a contract his production would justify. If you can’t even produce in that situation, then how can a team feel confident about your commitment once you’ve pocketed that guaranteed money?
Conclusions: So, will the Jets miss Chris Baker? Probably. He had great hands and a knack for making big catches over the middle. However, with a run-first offense, they shouldn’t find it too hard to replace his blocking and with Dustin Keller on the roster, his pass catching is a luxury that the Jets cannot afford. I have no doubts that they will be able to scheme around the fact that he is no longer on the roster and look forward to seeing the impact that some of the players signed with the savings from having released him can have.
Finally, to prove I’m not alone in my opinion that releasing Chris Baker was a sensible move (and it is just an opinion which you are encouraged to debate), I leave you with a quote from an article by Jason of nyjetscap.com:
One of the weirdest Mike Tannenbaum player signings in some time. Tannenbaum signed Baker to a relatively generous deal in 2006 when there was no market at all for the young tight end. Baker complained about wanting more money in 2008 and Tannenbaum signed him to an extension that will guarantee him 9 million dollars if he remains on the roster in the first week of March. Baker’s reputation more or less comes from one game in 2005 where he caught a bunch of passes in a blowout loss to Kansas City. Before and after that time he has been a relatively invisible player except when groaning about a new deal. No chance he sees even a penny of that 9 million and will likely be the first cut the Jets make this season.
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Baker was ok at best. Never really giving you more than the average TE around the league. So, he was more of a commodity than a luxury. I agree that they needed to move on without him.
Outstanding analysis and I think your correct. Lets hope Baker doesn’t burn us as a Patriot
I agree wholeheartedly, Baker was not worth the money he would have got and is no great loss.
Bring back Mickey Shuler. Now that was a real tight end.
why was dustin in the doghouse at the end of the season anyway?
Points well made and well taken.
But my big beef w/ Baker’s release and your arguement is the fact that your basing it on Keller being a traditional starting TE, w/ 2 other WR threats to complement him as an offensive, pass catching weapon. Considering the Jets barely have a #2 WR in Cotch, he becomes the default #1 receiving target, Keller the #2, and then where does Marky SoCal or Clem’s go to? Taking that into account, I think Baker would have been worth the $$ as it would give the QB a legit #3 receiving option to keep defs honest when stacking the box vs the run.
Overall it wasn’t a horrible move, but it was not good (or smart) either.
Mickey Shuler was awesome. I agree Baker is no loss, and I look forward to seeing us pound him when we play the cheating bastages this year.
Good analysis! But what many Jets fans feel is that the coaching was inept and did not use Baker properly. Many feel he had some of the best hands on the team and that the Offensive Coordinator just didn’t run plays for him or put him in position to make a bigger impact. This is what Jets fans Fear this year with Baker being on the Patriots- He will be used properly and now we might see how good he really could be especially with all the weapons around him and coaching in place in NE!
While we all can agree that Baker was not a GREAT TE, the fact that we cut him without a backup plan is indicative of a major mistake our front office made. We dont have a blocker, or a blocking/catching TE. Its as simple as that, all these UDFA’s and Kareem Brown will not solve this issue. We need to cross our finger that someone will be cut in training camp.
By the way Leon told Daily news hes thinking of holding out at training camp.
He want 6$ mil, Jets are offering 2$.
Not good. Too many issues. Im seeing our season going from 9-7 with a glimpse of playoff hope, to 6-7 wins and a crappy draft pick.
bono,
do you have any statistics or at least anecdotal evidence that Cotchery is barely a number two receiver?
Perhaps your definition of barely number two is different than mine.
My definition is the guy who usually lines up on the weak side( or the second most favorable place, wherever that may be) and catches the second most amount of passes for the second most amount of yards.
Cotchery 71 Rec. 858 yards 5 TDs
Coles 70 Rec 850 yards 7 TDs
Keller 48 Rec. 535 yards 3 TDs
Stuckey 32 Recs. 359 yards 3TDs
Baker 20 Recs 191 yards 0TDs
Maybe there are some other stats to analyze?
Nice analysis Bent
Only time will tell if we will miss him. But I agree the FO won’t
Baker move was def. smart. The guy has no numbers. We can easily find someone to catch more or block better for way less. I can’t believe people are worried about losing Baker ! we really have nothing to talk about huh ?
We will have WR options because someone will step up. These situations are what brings guys out of the woodwork i.e. Lance Moore, DAL. Austin guy…. the list goes on. The Jets should be Run/Def. team and the rest will fall into place.
Nice job Bent, especially sneaking in a quote by me at the end :) I just dont get the Baker lovefest that has gone on this past year. When Baker first held out last season I did a analysis of him as a player. Statistically he was around 18th in the NFL and his best quality was that he was durable at a position where most of the big name players all seem to miss time. Going into the 2008 season the average 4 year compensation for a starting tight end was 2.03 million/year. There is no way the Jets could justify giving Baker 9 million guaranteed.
On a side note Im kind of sick of the blocking tight end talk. We have 25% of our cap tied up in our five starters on the line this year. If we believe that a blocking tight end is the difference between playoffs and no playoffs than Mike Tannenbaum should be fired for investing so much money in an underperforming unit.
Especially nice work considering 1) it is off-season, 2) you agreed with my own preconceptions of the move.
Frankly, when I looked at his cap number right after the renegotiation last year it was clear to me he was being positioned to get cut unless he suddenly blossomed into an All-Pro. He continued to be what he always has been, so he got cut. End of story.
As for Jason’s wondering where the lovefest came from, my guess is it has a lot to do with the speed with which the Pats picked him up. If BB liked him, he must have been good, or so many Jets fans think.
The only stat I didn’t see was YAC. To me, that’s the really telling number for a TE if he is to be taken seriously as a wide receiver. If you have those comparative numbers, I’d love to know what they are.
As for this being a hot-button issue for Jets’ fans, get a life. A number of under-performing offenses have won Super Bowls and a lot of over-performing ones have lost. I’m gonna be watching the defense and hoping we eke out enough points to win more than we lose.
Bent,
Great, comprehensive job. You could have turned this into a college thesis. I agree with you, wholeheartedly. Baker was adequate, at best. Dustin Keller could become one of the most dangerous TE targets in the league. We would have had to pay Baker as a blocking TE, for this to be equitable but, he is just a so-so blocker. At this point, we can save cap space and pick up a player who is a strong blocker, for a lesser price tag. Those who are upset about Baker — I think Bent just layed this worry to rest.
patpat, dustin was in the doghouse because Mangini was in over his head at the time, he was beginning to panic. Rember the two opening drive drops he had on flare outs, Mangini got super pissed and essentially benched him.
There is one problem with this line of thinking; If Baker was not utilized properly in the offense than all his statistics could be misleading. He had proved that he had good hands and was reliable when he was a part of the passing game. As a blocker, he helped the team produce the number one rusher last year, so why would you want to gamble and get rid of him and hope to find an experiment with someone else?
This year we are rolling the dice on two QB’s whose worth is still left to be determined. It would have been nice to have an experienced TE who could help out the transition. If we were worried about paying him too much, than at least we should have had a better back up plan in place first.
Bent,
One of the best posts I’ve read and exactly what I needed to learn. Asside from the “no brainer” observations regarding Baker’s contract versus his performance, I was mostly concerned with our alternatives.
In other words, sometimes you date the fat chick with champaign ’til a thinner, more reasonable one comes along; and, Old Man Bubba Franks, Journey Man Richard Owens, DT Kareem Brown and OG Robert Turner are all toads on the road to a real replacement.
This is why, the most important insite gleened from your post is that the Patriots, who then signed Baker after his release, have a litter of six tight ends battling for three roster nipples. Consequently, Jets should have plenty of blocking tight ends runts available in August.
Sweet! Now us Jets fans can go back to worrying about Leon Washington signings, paranormal Gholston sightings and receiving corps.
We want Plax or Matt Jones!!!
Dean
“As for Jason’s wondering where the lovefest came from, my guess is it has a lot to do with the speed with which the Pats picked him up. If BB liked him, he must have been good, or so many Jets fans think.”
Good theory. And if that’s the case, they shouldn’t be worried, Belichick has dumped plenty of draft picks and FA signings over the years. If you were worried they knew something we didn’t when they signed Victor Hobson for example, your concern would have soon gone away.
Yards per catch – In 2005 he averaged just short of 15 yards per catch, however, that was a bit of an anomaly as (a) he caught just 18 balls (b) he was 7-124 in the first game and just 11-145 (13 yards per catch) the rest of the way and (c) he had the longest catch of his career – a 47 yarder. Take 2005 out of the equation and he averages less than 10 yards per catch (with a best season of 10.1) and never had a 30 yarder.
Dean – Interesting take! The Pats having three spare parts (and I’m not trying to make them out to be fantastic options – one is Brad Lisorti, who the Jets had on their practice squad last year) was just mentioned as an example of what is likely to be out there. That’s just one team…there’s another 30 that will have cast-offs.
I agree with Bonebreaker.
One statistic I didn’t see is looks. How many passes were thrown his way in any of the years he has played? Also, with Brett Favre, Baker may not have been his favorite safety valve.
I only saw him make grabs and do what he was asked.
Perhaps he was just a bit too slow for a TE and his inability to get separation was part of the deciding factor. If he can block but is only average why pay him as anything but a blocking TE?
Also, I thought Shotty was a TE friendly OC so if Baker can’t produce with him it all may have been on his lack of ability.
The FO-metrics account for the looks. That’s why his DYAR was 25th even though his catches and yardage were 36 and 40. His DYAR was top 20 from 2004-2007 as I said in the article, topping out at 11th in 2007.
So, when thrown to he was reliable…although having said that, when almost half of his catches are dump-offs to the flat (as noted in the FO quote), that can skew the numbers in his favor.
uhhh…some of the stat/acronym barge even has me swimming, and i consider myself a very knowledgeable football fan.
more sophisticated analysis? if you’re an opponent, does chris baker scare you? At all? Ever? enough to consider significantly in a game plan?
Answer is an unequivocal NO across the board (coming from someone who has never coached in the NFL). he was a TE who could block and catch. BFD. if he was putting up TD numbers, perhaps worth more of discussion…but probably not.
Great point Cecilio. I agree. Baker , to me, was like Becht and Brady…aside from all the hype, he was JAG.
It’s funny how teams always seem to get some positions correct over the coarse of time. For example, the Giants TE position, and the Jets MLB and RB position (Kevan Barlow notwithstanding). But the Jets haven’t had that dominant TE since Mickey Schuler. Let’s hope Dustin Keller breaks the streak.
The cards are there and other teams are noticing. The Jets are weak at the TE position. Which means they will find two proven veterans that block very well during camp cuts. They have teh pass catching TE in Keller and will use hin in a H-Back capacity. They will be a run first team and play great special teams and defense as thats whatthey went after in free agency etc…. Loaded at CB. Which means great special teams as no more TE and FB’s do the job of defensive minded players on ST. Control the clock (game) and limit mistakes and turnovers.
Nothing to say other than great job Bent.
Hard to blame the Jets for not keeping Baker at $9 Mil. But what I do blame them for is putting themselves in a position where they either had to pay him $9 Mil or release him.
He’s a valuable player who has not been replaced. It’s hard to see how the Jets will be the power running team they supposedly plan to be when they have no all-around TE.
A Weiss – My apologies, you asked me for YAC and I gave you YPC.
Baker has averaged 4.5 yards after the catch (per catch) for his career, which compares favorably with someone like Wes Welker whose career average is 5.8 or Laveranues Coles, who only averaged 4.1.
However, when a high proportion of plays are like this…
“it was essentially the same play over and over: Baker lined up as the tight end in a trips formation or as a slot receiver, ran a flat pattern or a short hitch against a linebacker, turned upfield for a few steps, then hit the ground after a healthy 8-to-10 yard gain.”
…as per FO’s analysis, then it’s kind of hard to see how his average was even that low!
jsa – “Hard to blame the Jets for not keeping Baker at $9 Mil. But what I do blame them for is putting themselves in a position where they either had to pay him $9 Mil or release him.”
True, but with Baker holding out they obviously felt they needed a reasonable offer on the table otherwise he’d half-ass his way through the 2008 season…although it kind of felt like he did anyway.
Bent – great analysis & use of the word “commensurate.” I do not think we are going to miss Baker
An aside.
If you compare Baker’s hands around a football in the picture accompanying this article and J’Nathan’s hands around a basketball here:
http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/jnathan_bullock/
…one might get the idea that his fingers could easily grasp the top of a helmut of a would be tackler if he is able to get in a straight arm under the face mask.
Second picture down here:
http://www.cleveland.com/sports/csu/index.ssf/2009/04/cleveland_state_basketball_pla.html
…also shows the incredible length of his fingers.
Of course, he has to make the team.
It’s just a strange quirk in the Jets fan psyche to elevate mediocre players to near mythic status every time they leave the Jets. Pete “Never a Pro Bowl” Kendall becomes John Hannah; Chris Baker becomes Kellen Winslow Sr.; Coles becomes Charlie Joiner; Victor Hobson becomes Jack Lambert; Fabini becomes Anthony Munoz and so on. I mean it’s not like the Jets have a long history of releasing/failing to sign guys who then become HOF’ers (except for Riggins). The only guy in recent memory who still stings is James Farrior (thanks, Herm).
Baker was a mediocre, at best, TE with not much tread left on his tires. His best plays came in WR formations and as Bent (and many others, including me) have said repeatedly, Keller is a clear upgrade as a pass catcher. Plus, Keller’s only a 2nd year guy, his blocking will become adequate and he needs to play every down, even when the Jets are in short yardage. Baker only would’ve retarded Keller’s development. Plus, his drop against the Raiders may have been the play that cost the Jets the playoffs…it was a BAD drop on a nice deep ball right down the middle and he had lots of open field. Easy FG range, game over.
“Keller’s only a 2nd year guy, his blocking will become adequate”
This made me think…I wonder if Keller is actually further along as a blocker than Baker was at the same stage of his career.
Check the draft scouting reports:
Keller: http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=1249
“While Dustin Keller is an adequate blocker, his money will be made as a pass catching tight end in the NFL…his 26 reps on the bench press show he has the upper body strength to be an adequate blocker in the NFL.”
Baker:
http://archive.profootballweekly.com/content/archives2001/draft_2001/scoutingreports_te.asp#TE%20Chris%20Baker
“Has a receiver’s mentality when it comes to blocking and is generally content to do the minimum. Gets in the way but rarely knocks anyone off the line or works to finish…A bigger pass-catching tight end who has the size to become a good blocker, but he thinks of himself as a receiver first. Needs to play with a greater sense of urgency and to realize blocking is a big part of his job.”
Holy crap, is there really a tome’s worth to say about Chris Baker? I’m a huge Jets fan but this is a bit much.
I know why they cut him, because they decided to play their hand in FA and the draft. It didn’t work out exactly – but we can find a backup TE just about anywhere.
…also that whole 9 million dollar thing…too…
Thanks for that explanation Bent. I think if he was thrown to more he’d have been more productive weapon.
Anyway, that J’Nathan Bullock article was good so here’s another refresher:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/03/sports/football/03jets.html?_r=1
If Bullock turns out to be good, a big if just because it is the NFL, then the scouting department, who already has my respect for many of their picks, deserves great kudos. These guys do a nice job compared to years past. Maybe the comparisons to Gates will not just be because of his switch from basketball.
I love this analysis, and upon a second read, (recommended) I found an interesting insight.
When we think of TE’s we think of receptions, hands, and separation. When I think of blocking in a TE, I think of a TE driving a LB/DE off the ball. A factor that I had not considered until now is the pass blocking of a Tight End. The fact that Baker gave up two sacks was not the reason he is in New England but it didn’t help.
Guys like Becht hang around, not because of their receiving ability, but their run blocking , and their pass blocking. When you have a receiving threat like Leon , you don’t want him pass blocking. Keeping a TE in to pass block, gives you more options in protection, and allows the passing game to be more vertical.
So a key factor for Brown, Simmons and now Richard Owens in making this team could be pass blocking.
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This whole discussion/analysis is premised on whether Chris Baker was worth the $9m. IMO, that’s the wrong focus. I don’t think anyone will argue that the Jets should have picked up the option. It wasn’t a legitimate offer – it was an implicit agreement between the two parties to part ways after the season. By getting that type of extension, Baker knew that he was either a) getting paid handsomely by the Jets (extremely unlikely) or b) getting his walking papers.
But, I’m not sure it had to come to that. Tanny has shown that he will give disgruntled players the boot instead of working with them, and, for the most part, it has worked to our detriment.
Kendall was asking for a $1m more….not a particularly huge amount, but Tanny wouldn’t budge. Baker probably could have been made happy with a small raise in the future that would have given him some security, and given us the TE we need.
Now, Tanny is well within his right to refuse to renegotiate – these guys have contracts and they need to understand that the Jets can expect them to play under these deals…..
BUT, the thing to focus on is…is our team worse off now? I think the answer is a big YES. Kendall leaving left us with Adrian Clarke as a starter….that was a huge leap of faith that no responsible football person should make. And with Coles and Baker being shown the door b/c of contracts, we have huge holes at WR and TE.
Bottom line, I’m fine with Tanny playing hardball with contracts if we have a Plan B. In the past 3 situations, we didn’t. And if you look back a few years at the cutting of Kevin Mawae, we got extremely lucky that Mangold a) fell to us, and b) panned out. Because when we cut Mawae, we had Trey Teague as our only Center. Scary thought.