Link: Not Feeling It
Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders writes a very well written post on the NYT Fifth Down Blog previewing the Jets in 2009. In abstract? Don’t expect much from the team in 2009, partially based on their QB situation, but more because F.O. contends the Jets weren’t that impressive of a team against inferior competitors during the course of the 2008 season.
But the biggest reason for pessimism: the Jets just weren’t very good last year. Their won-loss record was inflated by an easy slate of opponents from the A.F.C. West and N.F.C. West. At Football Outsiders, we use DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to evaluate every play by every team in a season, creating a high-accuracy power ranking. Even at their best, the Jets only earned a 13.2% rating, 10th in the N.F.L. before their December slide. By contrast, the Giants got as high as 41.5%.
The Almanac predicts that the Jets are most likely to be in the six win range in 2009 … ouch. Granted, Tanier’s post isn’t exactly a rosy picture for 2009, but it might be worth considering if you value girding your loins (as I try to) before the outset of every football season.
56 Responses to Link: Not Feeling It
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Pete57 says:
Aten, I was just about to say the same thing. Obviously the writer of this article did not take a good look at the results from last year. The Jets beat the NFC SB representative for 1 example, as well as several other playoff teams (Miami, Tenn., etc.)
I think a much better outlook would be to see that the Jets obviously had enough talent last year to beat some of the top teams in the league, and most of their shortcomings could be traced to coaching. Add to that they changed the HC and what they’ve added in personnel, and one could very easily make the argument the Jets will be a very dangerous team this year.
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Michael M says:
The weird thing about our 08 season was that we won the big games (Titans, Pats) but tripped up against lesser opponents. That to me shows that there is a lot of potential.
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DaveTN says:
We lost several games last year that almost any other QB on an NFL roster would have given us a chance in. I don’t think I’m exaggerating, either. You all watched the last 5 games.
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MSM says:
I guess I’m setting myself up for some major disappointment because I happen to disagree with almost every point that was made. First of all, our defense is completely revamped. We aren’t just adding Scott, Lito, and Leohnard (a Raven at every level of the defense that can help install Ryan’s scheme) but we are getting Harris back healthy (our number one tackler when he plays), we have arguably the best corner in the game, and when Pace comes back, he can finally become the matchup nightmare that hes always been. Those are big time roles that will be played by big time players in the defense. No we dont have Ed Reed but we have Kerry Rhodes… Offensively, theres no question we should of ran the ball even more than we did last year. Its embarrassing that Leon scored a TD on his first play and then is benched for the rest of it (thats a glaring coaching problem). Our O-Line is only getting better with age as the young guys mature and Faneca holds it down. We added Shonne Greene who will almost certainly be a Jerome Bettis type force (dont forget his body hasnt taken too much pounding in college because of the missed year, hes ready to go). At TE… we dont even need to go there… Keller is a BEAST. WR… yes we have a hole, but Coles didnt really hold it down very well last year. Favre almost had to force it to im sometimes. Lets be honest. We can def. pick up the slack and cover LC’s production with what we have. Lastly, Sanchez to me is the remedy not the problem. Having a rookie will FORCE us to run the ball more. Its a beautiful thing. Hes got the talent to hold it together, i think theres no doubt about that. Character speaks volumes for this kid. Soooo i dont know guys… im feeling a lot better about this team now than I was last year (even when we were winning). The Arizona Cardinals game stood out to me soooo much last year because it represented exactly what we are. A team with incredible talent in various facets of the game, that was being horribly horribly coached. There is NO way Arizona should have been able to come back and chop away at our almost insurmountable lead in the second half. Thats scheming, thats fear of failure on Mangini’s part. People should rewatch that game… it really defined us as a team last year I think. Yeah we won, but not the way we should of won and it hurt us down the road when we couldnt seal the deal against teams like Oakland and the Broncos… etc etc.
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Dave, I agree wholeheartedly. It was painfully obvious to me and most others that favre wasn’t 100%. I’ve said 1,000 times Mangini either had to bench Favre or gameplan around him, and he did neither. After they threw 40 passes in the snow in Seattle I knew Mangini had to go.
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We could’ve run the ball the entire game against Seattle and we would’ve won.
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Vinny Interceptaverde says:
Mike Tanier obviously didn’t do his homework. As wisely pointed out by Aten, the majority of the Jets losses last year where to the NFC and AFC West. If the Jets were such and inferior team and went 3-5 aganist the West divisions, then what does that say about the rest of the teams they played (Titans, Pats, Fins, Bills)?
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tbemont says:
I’d say he is a little too pessimistic. 8-8 seems likely to me. Whether we want to face it or not there are some question marks and some gaping holes on this team. WR, TE, DE, QB are all possible problems this year. I’m hoping for playoff comtention but…
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Jonathan says:
In my less optimistic moments, here are a couple concerns that continue to surface:
-The knocks on Mangini’s offensive scheming are still concerns, since Schotty is supposed to have more power than ever.
-Not only did we play the worst teams last year, but we seemed to always play them at their weakest moment. We played against a backup QB in half our games (many times in their first games as a starter): Cassel, Thigpen, Fitzpatrick, Wallace, Losman, Hill. Green. That will never happen again and it continues to peeve me, as it seemed the stars were aligned for us last year and we couldn’t capitalize. -
As of right now I can see maybe 7 or 8 wins. It seems like this team is always satisfied with just being mediocre. Here we all sit KNOWING that we have the weakest receiving corps in the east and there is Plaxico Burress, still unsigned. They are setting Sanchez and Clemens up to fail. I don’t want to hear about Brad Smith, Chansi Stuckey, Wallace Wright, David Clowney, Marcus Henry or some stiff we stole from Cincy. GET OUR QUARTERBACKS ANOTHER WEAPON. Here’s 4 names; Lee Evans,Terrel Owens, Randy Moss and Wes Welker
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SackDance99 says:
I agree that the coaching was just terrible last year. I watched the History of the Jets DVD again this past weekend and they were asking Namath about all the runs to the left that he called in Super Bowl III(including no passes in the 4th quarter) and he said “I kept calling it ’cause the Colts weren’t stopping it.” Then, look at the first offensive series against the Raiders in the second half and the failure to go for it on 4th and less than 1 at the goal line, in the snow, at Seattle. Against the Raiders, Jones rushes for 39 yards on 2 carries up the middle to the right and, then, Mangini brings in Leon for a pitch to the left that was so freaking obvious I could have called the defense. Against Seattle, notice how T-Rich was used and was ripping off good gains? Sure, it’s the snow a quick fullback dive works when everyone keys on the AFC’s leading rusher. I was screaming for T-Rich to get the carry, IMO he would’ve walked into the endzone with TJ as a decoy. This is just basic stuff that Mangini fracked up. Blame Favre all you want, but the Jets should never had to rely on a beat up 40 year-old QB with the AFC’s leading rusher and one of the game’s greatest pulling left guards. Just stupid stuff. With a run-pass mix that favors the rush (in 2008, the Jets passed 56% of the time…does that make any sense to anyone?), the Jets offense should be better balanced and ease Sanchez’s transition. And, if the defense keeps games close for Sanchez, no way he faces 8-men in the box all the time. Most NFL coaches are too cautious for that and a completed bomb (which Sanchez can do) would blow a close game wide-open. And, leaving Sanchez out of it, if the opposing team ever falls behind and has to pass, their QB will get killed…that’s the Ryan way. If Sanchez can throw more TDs than INTs and complete close to 60% of his passes and if Jenks and Faneca stay healthy, 10-12 wins can happen. Even if things go wrong, I still see 7 wins…the defense, special teams and running game are too good for fewer wins.
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Lonnie G says:
I do agree that losing to weak teams was something that killed us last year and is a terrible attribute to have. But I just don’t get when he says our record was inflated by playing the west divisions. How is that possible when we went 1-3 against the AFC West?
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people, we didn’t fire schotty. he’s only getting stronger.
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Bent says: Sack – Similar to how if something fails the first time that doesn’t mean you should abandon it forever? (Remember my Wile E. Coyote theory?)
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CBOB22 says:
You never know and each year things change. That’s why they PLAY THE GAMES ! 8-8 in 2009 or better if Defense plays well.
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Harvlis says:
Everybody in the media can pick us for last in the division and it all means squat. I’m with the positive posters, such as Pete, who believe we had horrible coaching last season. We improved personnel on both sides of the ball and got rid of the interception machine that was Brett Favre. Addition by subtraction.
If I do have a worry, it is Schottenheimer. This year will tell whether he has a clue about how to run an offense or not. We have all the tools. No excuses. If he passes all game long, in the snow — we get rid of him on the spot and let Bill Callahan take over. Why we didn’t do that already is a mystery to me.
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dade county jets fan says:
I wonder what last years prediction for atlanta, miami, baltimore and arizona was……i’m sure its pretty similar to what people are saying about the jets ……and to flip it the other way…..in 2007 cleveland was 10-6, detroit was 7-9 dallas and green bay were 13-3…seattle was 10-6 and jacksonville was 11-5…..Look how all those teams did in 2009
So i say let the haters hate cause its not gonna make a difference either way……..when the jets have a good year they will all say that they knew all along that with good qb play the jets would be better than they predicted bla bla bla or some other excuse…
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fonzie says:
SackDance:
How can you be soooo down on last years coaching. Give Mangini SOME credit for beating the Titans, NE at the most crucial times. He was able to plan game specific like no-one else in football. Give credit where credit is due.
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The K-man says:
This is what’s great about the NFL. No one really knows and just about every team has the opportunity to surprise. I don’t think many predictated Arizona going to the Superbowl right? The Jets are weak in some areas and depth scares me. However, the coaching cannot be any worse than it was last year.
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We have one of the best defenses in the game today, and one of the best o-lines, don’t tell me we don’t have the chance to make the playoffs, look at the Ravens last year, come on……………….
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fonzie,
Mangini always had a “winning” game plan based upon the tendencies of the opposing team. When the plan worked like against the Titans or in 2007 against the Steelers (a brilliant game plan), he was Mangenious. But, when the opposing team threw a monkey wrench into his plan (49ers) or weather conditions (Seahawks) or anything else, Mangini couldn’t improvise. His in-game adjustments were awful. As for the Pats game, taking Big Jenks out on the Pats final drive was one of the stupidest coaching decisions of the season, he was lucky the Jets won in OT or his bonehead “prevent” defensive call might’ve led to an in-season firing.
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Sack:
Mangini, like Belichick, Parcells, needs the horses upfront. You know that, I know that. So forget ’07. So when you say the he ..” taking Big Jenks out on the Pats final drive was one of the stupidest coaching decisions of the season,…he knew that Big Jenk needed to be “protected” during the season. You would probably praise Rex for doing so. Again, give him some credit !!!
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neauone says:
Oh, I guess thats the gospel huh? I wonder what they thought the Falcons and Raven’s chances of winning games last year was?
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david65 says:
the key thing to winning this year will be sanchez and the WR’s.
the other teams know we are going to be running so they are obviously going to stack more guys in the box. yes we do have a good Oline but do you think 5 really good lineman can block 7 defensive players? obviously no.
if one of the WR’s can step up and sanchez make minimal mistakes then maybe we can get a playoff birth.
i think the play action pass will be the best part of our offense
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Lj says:
I dont see how anyone could predict how this team is going to finish this year. So much hinges on a guy who has yet to take his first NFL snap. We can be anywhere from 5-11 to 11-5. The fact is, we have so many new pieces that it is ridiculous to say you know how it will all come out on the field.
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JDB says:
doesn’t mean jack, as much as we all try to predict football by what we think we know, we don’t know much at all.
nobody thought the Cardinals would be in the superbowl, and very few picked the steelers to be there either.
football is incredible variable
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MEL31602 says:
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/Step_right_up_Jet_fans_tickets_available.html
Guess this means PSL sales are not going as planned. Anyone on the waiting list going to buy tickets now as a result of this?
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CHARLIE D says:
Sackdance99,
I enjoy your posts but FONZIE you need to get a clue! Sorry but I completly agree with sack on his analysis. Mangenius was very smart in gameplanning but could not adjust to when the opposing teams adjusted that was why we had great first halfs for a few games but almost lost in the end. He was not able to motivate his troops. Mr. Johnson said that in an interview with Mike F. on the FAN.
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Joe B. says:
Aten beat me to the punch. Those AFC/NFC West opponents inflated our record all the way from 6-2 to 9-7. Well played, writer.
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Kirk says:
some of you are so freakin negative it’s infuriating
I AM PUMPED FOR THIS SEASON! our defense and run game will enable us to compete with any team in the league. period!
also, aside for the 2 games against the pats and titans, mangini was terrible last year. i think what sackdance99 said was 100% on point about mangini. he just couldnt improvise when the situations demanded it. and come to think of it, neither could schotty. aside for the first drive a lot of games his play calling was god awful.
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seanmac31 says:
The easy set of opponents extended beyond the Wests- the entire AFC East was inflated by their schedule, so wins against Buffalo, Miami and New England weren’t all that impressive, either, as the entire division’s true strength was not reflected in their record. Miami was nobody’s idea of an 11-5 team, Buffalo was actually in the bottom third in the league, and the Pats were not terribly good for most of the year, though they finished strong and ended up ranking reasonably well. In any event, wins and losses are kind of besides the point to DVOA, which tracks how a team performs on a play-by-play basis, and then compares how each play compares to every other play against those same opponents.
neu- You’re barking up the wrong tree. The Falcons were set for improvement, and the Ravens were picked by FO as a darkhorse Super Bowl team, as they were projected to have a major bounce back and have the best defense in football (as they did). The reason why Baltimore had such a good projection is the same reason the Jets have a bad one- in 2007, the Ravens played a very tough schedule while suffering a ton of injuries. Against an easier slate of opponents and with a return to the mean in the injury department, it was easy to see that they would be much better. In 2008, the Jets played the easiest schedule in the league (actually 2nd easiest behind Miami), and they did so while being one of the healthiest teams in the league. Therefore, it’s highly likely that next season, against a tougher slate of opponents and with a normal or above normal number of injuries, they’re going to perform worse than last year, and that’s before you throw in the fact that they are adding a rookie quarterback into the equation.
It’s all good and well to be excited about the upcoming season, but recognize it for the baseless optimism it is. It’s possible that the Jets will outperform their projection this year (it will require Sanchez in particular to put forth an exceptional rookie performance with zero help from his wide receivers), but it’s not statistically likely.
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Bent says:
“DVOA…tracks how a team performs on a play-by-play basis, and then compares how each play compares to every other play against those same opponents.”
Here’s where, if I’ve understood how it works correctly, I have an issue with DVOA.
Look at the wins over the Pats and Cardinals. In both wins the Jets went into a huge lead with dominant football, but then foolishly went into a prevent and ended up being significantly outgained in terms of yardage, even though they were still able to win. So, the losing team – correct me if I’m wrong – would have fared a lot better in terms of DVOA than they otherwise would have done. (The Miami win in week one also fits the bill, albeit to a lesser extent).
At the end of the day, they were still wins – and without going into bend-but-not-break mode probably would’ve been bigger wins.
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seanmac,
“Baseless optimism?” How about baseless pessimism. A major reason for FO’s negative prediction is that FO is projecting major injuries for the Jets this season. Pure speculation, even if it’s based on statistical probability (why has the Giants OL been basically injury free for the past several years?). In reality, only injuries to Faneca and Jenkins would be devastating (and Faneca CAN be replaced, but his run blocking and leadership would be missed…Jenks can’t be replaced, neither can Wilfork, Williams or any other All-Pro calibre NT…but good DCs improvise, as discussed below).
Plus, the negative offensive projections fail to take into account that the running game should be improved. Moreover, the run/pass mix may go from 56% passes to 56% runs. That changes the entire dynamic of the Jets games. Time of possession should go up for the Jets (keeping the Jets defense fresher) and the games should be lower scoring, which also means that special teams will play a more prominent role, and even FO concedes that the Jets’ special teams will be good..
Defensively, FO just doesn’t believe that Scott, Leonhard, Sheppard, Douglas and the new defensive style will improve the team. I read that FO bases this on the “fact” that statistically, getting a new defensive coordinator doesn’t translate into a better defense. Oh, really? How about when the defense is pretty good already?
Consider the curious case of the 2003 Steelers compared to the 2004 Steelers. In 2003, the Steelers had Tim Lewis as DC. The defense was okay, 15th in points allowed, but the team finished 6-10. In 2004, Dick LeBeau re-joined and the Steelers led the NFL in fewest points allowed, went 15-1 with a rookie QB at the helm. Did the defensive roster change? Yes, a promising rookie named Troy Polamalu started, but All-Pro NT, Casey Hampton, was injured. Instead, of proving to be devastating, LeBeau improvised and kept the Steelers defense at an elite level. IMO, the defensive improvement was all about LeBeau.
The Jets, however, have also infused the defense with better talent. You’re just skeptical about how much better Scott and Leonhard can be. That’s okay, but that skepticism has translated into an unduly negative Jets profile. 6 wins? I just wish Vegas agreed, I could use a new extension for my house. The Jets could have 4 AFC East division wins. I just hope FO is as skeptical about the Bills, with a new LT and 2 rookie OL starters and the Phins, with a tougher schedule and a QB that has never had 2 injury-free seasons in a row.
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What concerns me is that the three most important spots in today’s NFL seem to be QB, OL, and pass rusher(s). We’re very strong at OL, promising but unproven at QB, and our pass rush will be missing Pace for 4 games and relying on Gholston / Murrell to come through.
We’re on the right track long-term, but for this year, 6-10 isn’t that far-fetched.
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rudy says:
I predict a 4-12 record and anyone who thinks this team is much stronger is not being honest with themselves.
The offense is weaker not stronger and the offensive line has been absent of injury for the last 2 years and it is unlikely that they will be able to sustain a injury free season on the offensive line. I could be wrong however I would rather go with the proven stats of NFL injuries and the Jets are due for one not only on offense but also on defense.
No proven QB and a rookie HC are not what I would call a winning combination. Additionaly the Jets defense is getting older not younger and the only speed that this team has on defense is with the CB’s.
Jenkins is a force when healthy however he has missed practicly 2 full seasons and now has a bad back. Herniated discs don’t go away and once you have one you are can never expect to have a stronger back. Ask Jumbo Elliott what happened to his career once his back became a problem.
The LB’s are so way overated and none of them have any speed. We now know why Pace is a freak at 270lbs. Looks like he will not even come close to his 2008 numbers and should be seen as a LB who will be on the decline as is all of the LB’s on the Jets. You could say that Eric Barton was the Jets best LB and that Vilma was the absolute best when he was healthy and on our team.
I just don’t get all of this excitement and to boot Woody kicked all of his loyal season ticket holders in the ass for the almighty buck is all that this moron cares about.
Jet fans keep dreaming about unrealistic numbers and what they should be doing is looking at their opponents especially the first 4 games. IMHO the Jets will start the season at 0-4 and from there it will snowball to a major decline. This team is going nowhere and its just a matter of time before Revis is gone as he can leave the Jets for green pastures sooner than Jet fans realize and is their best every down player.
Washington could also be gone and with no other playmaker on the offensive side of the ball these Jets will be the most predictable offense in the NFL.
Sorry Jet fans but our team is heading for a major decline and I would not be surprided to see Sanchez flop and Tannenbaum finally gone at the end of 2009.
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We’re not predicting major injuries but at the very least a return to the norm, which will be enough to significantly impact the overall level of performance. I’m sure it seems arbitrary to predict injuries when determining which teams will rise or fall the following season, but it works very much in the same way as fumble recoveries. If a team fumbled 20 times and only recovered 5, they are almost certainly going to be better the following season without doing anything at all, simply because very few teams exhibit that kind of bad luck two years running. Injuries aren’t quite as random as fumble recoveries, but they’re close, and they have every bit as much of an impact on games. In fact, the number of starters who are injured has the biggest correlation between wins and losses of any statistic.
As for the running game, why is it going to be better? Because the Jets will run more? Last year the Ravens ran 55% of the time to the Jets’ 42%, but the Jets had the better running game. The Jets no longer have Favre to keep the safeties back, they don’t have a blocking tight end on the roster, and they have miserable depth on the offensive line for when those inevitable injuries pop up. It’s likely that the running game is going to be significantly worse next year, not better. And while the team will undoubtedly be more run heavy next year, it’s not like they can show the same cavalier disregard for game situation that Baltimore did last year, because they aren’t going to have the #1 defense in football keeping them in the game.
As for the defense, what the research said is that hiring a head coach who was a defensive coordinator does not usually result in the defense being much improved, if at all, the following year. The major exceptions are when you promote your own defensive coordinator to the to spot, when you hire Bill Parcells, or when you hire Tony Dungy. Aside from that, improvement tends to be minimal. The last two Ravens DCs made only the minor improvement to their defenses in their first year as head coaches. Is it different if the defense you inherit is a pretty good one? Not many teams with top defenses fire their coaches and hire a new defensive coordinator from outside, and in any event, the Jets defense last year was not very good and so wouldn’t really apply. They ended the year 16th in the league in DVOA, with a 3.9% number. We do project that the defense is going to improve a bit- it’s just not going to be an elite unit, and it’s definitely not going to be good enough to compensate for an offense that looks like it’s going to crater. In terms of rough projections, the defense figures to be in the 12-13 range, while the offense is in the 31-32 range. Adds up to 6-10.
Yes, btw, the Bills are projected to win 5 games thanks in large part to their incredible mess at OL.
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Rudy,
You are a pessimist. Heads up, the sky is falling. It’s called “Long-time Jet Fan Syndrome”. Fortunately, your entire blog shows lack of reality and poor knowledge of ability. I wouldn’t say the Jets will win 12 games but, no way they only win 4.
I can argue every point that you have made but, I’ll let the play on the field render your blog worthless.
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Seanmac,
You sound like you’ve been hanging out with Rudy.
I wouldn’t want either of you guys on my team. You are beaten before the season begins.
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Bent says:
Going by seanmac’s logic, the Jets have had 40 years of rotten luck, so they should expect everything to go their way in 2009.
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JesusRevis says:
Predicting injuries based on any sort of system is absurd. Injuries are probably the most random aspect of professional football. Obviously I expect the majority of posters to object to these projections, since most fans are always optimistic about their own team, but that doesn’t mean they are wrong to object.
I agree with Harvlis, too many people have the wrong attitude and expect to lose. I call it Joe Beningo syndrome.
As far as the defense, I expect major improvements. Even if Seanmac has statistics that prove defensive coordinators joining a new team as HC have been unsuccessful, that doesnt mean that should apply with the Jets. How many of those defensive coordinators were as highly regarded as Rex Ryan? The son of Buddy Ryan and in many peoples opinion the best defensive coordinator in football. And how many of these coordinators have joined teams with as much defensive talent as the Jets? The combination of Rex Ryan and players like Jenkins, Ellis, Gholston, Pace, Thomas, Harris, Scott, Sheppard, Rhodes, Revis, Leonhard, Lowery , is a great formula for success. I expect big things from this unit and Jet fans have no reason to expect otherwise.
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seanmac,
Of course the Jets had a better running game than the Ravens in 2008, because they have a better OL. FO’s logic is circular. The Jets running game will decline because the OL will have injuries; the OL will not be as good because of injuries. Well, why? In fact, OL continuity is probably the greatest factor in sustained excellence in the running game. Many teams keep their OL virtually intact for years, why will the Jets, as opposed to the dozens of teams I could cite, fall victim to injuries?
In 2008, the Jets not only vastly improved their OL, but they also hired Bill Callahan, which you just failed to consider. Also, what’s your objective proof that the Jets don’t have depth at OL? Callahan can coach up the no-names, who will only get a name if they play and Woody can sub in at any other OL position, if necessary. If the Jets don’t sustain injuries on their OL, the running game should be more effective in their 2nd year together.
And, nothing is more speculative than to hang your hat on the “blocking TE” myth. The Jets just signed a “blocking TE” (Owens) who actually has a reputation as a blocker, not like Baker and Franks, who were not blocking TEs. Moreover, the Jets brought in Turner as a blocking TE in 2008…he’s still on the Jets. Also, why is it hard to believe that Keller might turn out to be as adequate as that so-called great blocker, Baker. Sorry, that’s just a bad argument.
Also, a great running team doesn’t need the defense as a back stop. In fact, FO’s top rated rushing team (Denver) was also the 31st ranked defensive team. Oh, but Denver has Cutler…I’m willing to bet that Denver’s high ranking has been steady (more or less) over this decade, even with Griese or Plummer at QB and a revolving door at RB because of their OL. The Pats rush rank was also higher than the Jets, but their defense was 21st, their QB couldn’t start where our projected QB started 16 times in college, and their RBs are inferior. So, the QB impact theory is just that a theory and FO’s own stats don’t bear it out. In fact, it appears that OL continuity and superior coaching (check and check for the Jets) are more important for the running game than who the QB or RB is.
So, if the Jets rush 500 times, why can’t their running game be as successful as New England’s in 2008? The Jets OL has better run-blockers and the Jets have better RBs. So, no seanmac, I don’t think the Jets running game will be better just because they’ll run more, it’s because of their talented OL, coaching and RBs.
Will you concede that if the Jets OL doesn’t suffer injuries, the running game will still be top 5? Top 10? And, a running game that good has to improve the offense, right?
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Jesus,
Predicting specific injuries to particular players is absurd. Understanding what the norms for starters lost for games during the season and how that works over the course of several seasons is not only straightforward but mandatory for predicting when teams are likely to have bounceback seasons and when they are likely to disappoint.
As for the reputations of the defensive coordinators in question, many of them were every bit as highly regarded as Ryan, if not more highly regarded. Ryan happens to have that new car smell, but that doesn’t mean much. I mean, let’s put this in perspective. Bill Belichick is the best defensive mind in modern history. The Patriots defense got much worse the first season he arrived. Reputation means very little when you are talking about the short term, immediate improvement you are looking for.
Anyway, it’s hardly a question of having a Joe Benigno attitude. I would have loved to have written about how the Jets were going to go 12-4 this year. Unfortunately, we ran the season simulator 10,000 times, and it suggested it was much more likely that they were going 6-10. Doesn’t mean that it will happen, certainly. But it’s the more likely outcome.
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Seamac, I still feel any projectory system for predicting injuries is pretty ridiculous, but I’m obviously not as familiar with those types of statstics as you are so I could be wrong. Personally I think almost all injuries are flukes and any injuries suffered by the Jets O-Lineman this season will be no different.
You used Belichick asyour 1 example of a highly regarded defensive coordinator, but who else? And did Belichick inherit as much defensive talent in Cleveland as Rex with te Jets? No chance.
I wasnt referring to you as far as the “Joe Beningo attitude” and im sure you would have loved to write about a successfull Jet season, but youre just doing your job, doesnt mean I have to agree with it though…
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Of course, the Jets aren’t the typical situation where a coach is fired and a defensive coordinator is hired as HC. First, the Jets’ OC, special teams coach and offensive line coach are all holdovers. The main difference is on the defensive side where the Jets former “read and react” 3-4 defense will be replaced by an attacking/blitzing 3-4. Hence, my comparison between the 2003 and 2004 Steelers where the only real change was on the defensive coaching side, besides the rookie QB. Second, most coaches are fired after a lot more failure than Mangini had. The Jets were 9-7 last year, so the Jets are not in “rebuilding” mode, except at the QB position. Third, FO’s simulator makes predictions on a set number of statistics, but as with the Lewin Rankings, fail to take into account the underlying cause for the numbers or the exogenous factors. The simulator was wrong on the Falcons (and Lewin was wrong on Matt Ryan, as I predicted), Steelers, Titans, Dolphins, and others in 2008. It seems to me that FO is predicting that everything will go wrong because the statistics predict that outcome. But, statistically, it’s highly improbable that everything will work against the Jets. I’ll say this much, a 6-10 season (or worse) would be a disaster for the Jets. I sure hope FO is wrong, again.
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Jesus,
The defense that Belichick inherited from Pete Carroll had just put up a -11% DVOA the year before. Last year, the Jets defense put up a 3.9%. The Pats defense had been playing at a far higher level, but they dropped way off as Belichick transitioned into a 3-4. The question isn’t whether Ryan is going to ultimately be successful or not, but rather whether he’s going to give the defense a major boost this season. Past history indicates that he won’t. And this upcoming season is really all we’re talking about right now.
Sack,
The Jets running game may be due for a decline with or without the injuries, as their effectiveness last season jumped way up over what it has been for the past 3-4 seasons, and their primary back is at a bad age for continued effectiveness. And of course, any kind of injuries at all could cause the same kind of tumble that Indy, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville all suffered last year, when they went from top rushing teams to bottom feeders.
It’s certainly possible that the simulator is wrong, as it has been with various teams in the past. On the other hand, it’s instructive to look at a team that it was very much right on last year, as many of the same factors apply- Cleveland. The Browns in 2007 went 10-6, but it was a soft 10-6 that was put up against a lightweight schedule, and done on the strength of a nearly injury-free season from a group of players with a history of injury problems and on the sudden jump to elite status of an offensive line that had traditionally been bad. It was almost a given that they were going to have some injuries the next year-and they did-that the offensive line would decline some even without injury-and it did-and that their old running back would hit the wall-and he did. Their record suddenly looked a lot worse once the competition got tougher. And that’s kind of the point. The Jets may not be a normal rebuilding team, but they’re not a normal 9-7 team, either. They simply weren’t that good last year, victories at New England and Tennessee notwithstanding.
Anyway, I hope you’re right. I really would much prefer it.
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Cleveland is worth looking at more closely when you are talking about the offensive line. In 2006, their offensive line ranked 31st in Adjusted Line Yards. But they signed Eric Steinbach, drafted Joe Thomas, and the following year they jumped up and were the second best line in the league. They brought back all their personnel, so therefore they should have plugged along every bit as effective as before, right? Well, no. When a unit doesn’t have a sustained history of excellence and it suddenly jumped way up to the top of the league, the odds are good that it will regress some the following season. In Cleveland’s case, they slipped down to 19th in the league. The Jets offensive line was 25th in 2006, 23rd in 2007…and 2nd in 2008. Even if they bring back the same starting five and everyone stays healthy, it’s unlikely that they are going to sustain that level of play this year.
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Seanmac,
You use losers logic. You look at the downside of every statistical situation. Stay away from sharp objects.
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seanmac,
I won’t convince that FO is wrong about the Jets’ running game. I would expect that if the Jets run more, the team’s YPC would go down. I’d guess from 4.7 to 4.4.
As for Cleveland, even you know that comparison is false. The Jets added 2 players last season, Alan Faneca, who will probably make the HOF and is a tremendous run-blocking, pulling LG, and Woody. The Browns added Steinbach and Thomas to their left side. But, the real reason for Cleveland’s decline was likely that their RGs from 2007 were injured and did not play in 2008. So, Cleveland did not have OL continuity. Moreover, IMO, the Jets with Faneca pulling, Mangold, Moore and Woody have a great right-running team, I believe the Jets were no. 1 in the NFL under FO’s analysis at running right. IMO, Steinbach, Fraley, Hadnot and Schaefer (really an LT) are just not in the same league as the Jets’ players as run-blockers from LG-RT. I like Steinbach, he’s very good, but just not in Faneca’s league as a pulling LG…it really isn’t close. The same is true for the rest, only Thomas is a better run blocker than his Jets counterpart.
Then, we get to Cleveland’s RBs. Lewis looked like he was in a long decline, he failed to break 4.0 YPC from 05-06, then in 07, he has a 4.4 YPC, but in 08 he goes back down to 3.6, his 06 YPC. Now, let’s look at Jones, his YPC was over 4.0 from 03-06, dipped below 4.0 in 07 and went back up over 4.0 in 08. As you know, the Jets OL in 07 was terrible. So, there’s evidence to show that the 07 seasons were aberrations for both Lewis, who performed better than he had in the past, and Jones, who performed worse. Also, Cleveland does not have Leon or Shonn Greene (who I know FO doesn’t like). The Jets have better depth and contrast at the RB position.
So, once you look at the players, not just the stats, Cleveland bears no resemblance to the Jets. Also, Kellen Winslow was injured and, while he’s no run-blocker, as I’ve said before, a pass-catcher helps the running game because he occupies an LB. Without Winslow, it was much easier for the SAM and TED to stay home.
In sum, FO’s analysis all revolves around the random, speculative determination that the Jets OL will have injuries on the OL. Besides that, there’s really no proof that the Jets running game will not be one of the NFL’s best.
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Actually, the whole point is that Cleveland thought they were achieving continuity by bringing back the entire starting five from their 2nd ranked 2007 unit, but it didn’t work out that way. And if you look the individual numbers, it doesn’t really corroborate what you’re saying. Last year the Browns were 24th at running behind left tackle, 22nd between the guards, 7th off right tackle and 6th off right end. There were injuries that affected continuity, but the bigger issue is that Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach simply didn’t play up to the level they did in 2007, when the Browns were best in the league at runs off left end, third off left tackle and seventh between the guards. And no, Cleveland doesn’t have Leon Washington, but they do have James Harrison, who for the last two years has graded out more highly than Leon on a per-carry basis. (Why the Browns don’t make him the feature back is beyond me.) I think the Cleveland example is very relevant, but it’s far from unique. Units that are consistently bad that suddenly make a huge leap forward tend to regress the following season, even if there were personnel changes involved. Likewise, units that are very good year after year tend to bounce back after a year of ineffectiveness, especially when injuries contributed to the ineffectiveness. (That was a major factor in Baltimore’s very predictable resurgence last year, and in the 2003-2004 Steelers example that you mention, which I’ll get to in a bit.)
Harvlis,
Not at all. You just happen to be a fan of the wrong team. If you happen to like the Chargers, for instance, you’ll be happy, because the numbers say they’re going to give the 2007 Patriots a run for their money. For that matter, if you like the Rams, you’re going to be happy because the same factors that are all working against the Jets are working for St. Louis, and they’re primed to jump from the top of the draft into 8-8 or better land. It would be nice if the numbers worked out for the Jets, but they don’t.
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Seanmac,
I can take any statistic you want and put a negative spin on it. It means diddly. Can the Jets take a nosedive — of course. Every team can take a nosedive. We can say, right now, that Tom Brady will probably reinjure his knee. We can say that, since Pennington has never had two healthy seasons in a row — he’s going down also. All these statements are occuring in DREAMWORLD.
With all of the changes that the Jets have made — it all looks positive to me. On Offense, we picked up the QB that management feels can be the dominant QB
of our future. We drafted Shonn Greene, to add to an outstanding backfield. Our O-line has had a full year of playing together, which can only make them better. Dustin Keller looks to be a very dangerous target at TE. On Defense, we replaced Coleman with Douglas, Barton with Scott, Lowery with Shephard, and Smith with Leonhard. We added two outstanding defensive coaches in Pettine and Ryan, and offensive coaches in Cavanaugh and Ellard.You can punch all the numbers you want into a brainiac computer and they wouldn’t have picked the Giants to win the SB a few years ago or the Cardinals to be in it this past year. If your number system was so good, you’d be blogging from the Carribean.
I am a Jet fan. Every year, prior to the season, I look at the postive things that might happen for my team. I could look at the negative but, WHY.
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I guess that’s what the regular season is for. Anyway, it’s fine- enjoy the offseason. (Just don’t go anywhere near Vegas with your optimism. )
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For 40 + years I have witnessed a team that continues to lose its identity and continues to hire unproven GM’s and HC’s.
I am not a fan of Tannenbaum and think that he should of gotten the pink slip with Mangini. Woody likes Tannenbaum simply because he probably is the only GM who isn’t man enough to stand up to Woody and will do whatever Woody asks him to do. You could say that Tannenbaum is Woody’s man slave.
The optimism for Rex Ryan is perplexing as he has never been a HC and I for one believe that he is a dummy just like his father. I predict things to go awry as soon as the Jets season starts and I just can’t see the Jets going far especially when you consider that the team has a much stronger schedule and a much weaker offense.
Jet fans are unwilling to admit that even with Favres bad arm that they were a more formidable offensive team. To think that Jet fans are more comfortable with Clemens or a rookie QB who has played only one full season of college ball. The Jets were better off experimenting with Ratliff and drafting Harvin and Moreno rather than to draft only 2 players who IMHO are both way overrated. Sanchez is small and doesn’t possess a strong enough arm to play in the Meadowlands and I predict that he will be a bust. Shonn Green is another scratch your head kind of move as he is not elusive and can not block or catch the ball.
The Jets continue to give away draft picks to pick a handful of players and pay huge money to unproven football players like Scott, Pace and Thomas. The Jets DE’s are slow and getting old and have probably seen their best days and Jenkins has been injury prone and now with his bad back he may also be at the end of his football career.
Who is going to throw the ball and who is going to catch it? Too many Jet fans believe that their running game will improve. I am one who believes that it will go in reverse. Washington is exciting but he is not what I would call a every down back and Jones IMHO is above average but is not a game breaking player.
The Jets also are in need of a punter and have done nothing the last two years to improve the punting game. This IMHO is way overlooked and you could say that the Jets lost several games last year due to poor punting. If the Jets believe that they have a good defense then they better find a good punter.
As for the HC I have already said my peace and don’t like his attitude one bit. Like I said I never thought that Buddy was a smart guy he just happened to have great players and gets way too much credit.
If Ozzie Newsome thought that Rex was so great he would have kept him in Baltimore and hired him over Harbough. Somehow I think that Ozzie doesn’t think much of Rex and the only other idiot who thought highly of him is our idiot owner.
Until Woody learns to put his ego aside this Jet organization will stink to high heaven. Too often fans overlook the ownership and always poin their fingers at the HC or GM. I am one never to look any further than the ownership and truly believe that the best thing that could happen to the Jets is if Woody sells the team, dies, (not that I am wishing him dead) or is embarressed by the Rex Ryan hire after Rex posts identical won-loss record of Rich Kotite.
I believe that it will be the latter and that after two miserable years of Rex Ryan football Woody will be forced to finally pay for a proven GM & HC. Unfortunately for us Jet fans we will have to be humbled again and it might be too late for many of us who have been disenfranchised with these PSL’s may have finally had enough of the Jets and find that life without NJ football isn’t as bad as many of us thought. USFL anyone?
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Rudy,
When it gets so bad that you can’t find anything good to say about your team — it’s time to find a new team to root for.
Tannenbaum has done an excellent job, in a short period of time. I wonder what you were saying, when we were 8-3 last year. Until Bret hurt his arm, Kris hurt his back, and the coaching staff had a meltdown –we were one of the top teams in football.
Tannenbaum just gave us a QB and an RB who could help us win games for many years. Our O-line just played it’s first full year together. They did quite well. TJ led the division in rushing. With Shonn Greene and Leon Washington — I would say we have one of the best backfields in football. Dustin Keller did damage in his rookie year and could blossom into one of the top receiving TE’s in the league. Plenty to root for in this group.
Tannenbaum just revamped every weak link in our defense. Douglas for Coleman, Scott for Barton, Lito for Lowery, and Leonhard for Smith/Elam. They haven’t put on pads yet, and you have them sucking. No way. This unit will be exciting.
As for punter, TJ Conley was one of college’s best punters. Tannenbaum picked him up as an undrafted free agent. He was a Walter Camp First Team All-American. Will he work out? We will see.
Ryan and Pettine just coached one of the best defenses in the league for a number of years. Ryan hasn’t coached one down, and you are calling him names. You might say that this is your opinion but, what is your opinion based on — Nothing. So much for your opinion of Ryan.
You would be much happier rooting for the Patriots. Unfortunately, we are going to thrash them this year so, things are not going to get better for you.
I like the part about our W/L record being inflated by our 3-5 against the Wests.