The Paranoid Fan vs. The Optimistic One
Over the coming days and weeks, we’re going to be working in some new bloggers into the TJB team. So please welcome Dan Shipper (who you can find on Twitter at @convisoft) to the gang. Today, Dan looks at the offense from the eyes of the vacillating Jets fan. -Bassett
Every Jets fan has two sides. We are all schizophrenic; we alternate between paranoid, neurotic, sobbing Suzys and rabid, take-on-the-world hope mongers. That’s why I think it’s so interesting to look at our prospects for the season through the lens of the paranoid fan, and through that of the optimistic one.
The Quarterback
Optimistic – The optimistic fan will tell you that Mark Sanchez’s pedigree at USC and his outgoing personality will virtually guarantee his success in New York. Mark Sanchez is a quarterback that understands his position within the organization, and knows what he has to do to succeed. He has the strong personal foundation and grounded worldview of an elite quarterback and he is inheriting a team that came within a bicep tendon of making a legitimate Super Bowl run. He will take control in training camp, and make the Jets offense his. He has all the physical, and mental tools necessary for success and will make the Jets perennial SB contenders. He even organized playbook run-throughs in his hotel room before minicamp for God’s sake! We have every reason to be confident in his abilities to lead us to the playoffs this season, and for many seasons in the future.
Paranoid – The paranoid fan would probably predict Mark Sanchez’s likely NFL path to be “The Way of the Leaf.” With only sixteen collegiate starts, pretty-boy Sanchez is doomed to the general mediocrity of every Jets passer since Namath became a Ram. With the hopes of the town riding on his rookie shoulders, he will crumble under the weight of the expectations placed upon him and will be replaced by Kellen “QB Competition Waiting to Happen” Clemens. The Jets missed the year of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco and in the time honored tradition of their managerial forbearers the FO has attempted to capture lightning in a bottle a year after the thunderstorm has passed. Say hello to a decade filled with bad jokes from an overweight head coach, a record that fluctuates between 5-11 and 7-9, and a franchise quarterback that is consistently inconsistent and never lives up to expectations.
The Running Backs
Optimistic – Thomas Jones is a beast between the tackles, Leon Washington is unstoppable in space, and it’s looking like Shonn Greene could be taking on an earlier-in-his-career Marion Barber role – helping to run out the clock in the fourth quarter with fresh legs and a willingness to grind out the tough yards. With three viable backs in our stable of options, not to mention the ageless Tony Richardson, the Jets backfield is going to be a force to contend with in 2009. Though Jones is a senior citizen in running back years, he wasn’t a true workhorse back until much later in his career and still has a little more tread on his tires. Last year it seemed like Little Leon scored a TD every time he touched the ball, whether it was on offense or in the return game. He even led the league in all-purpose yards, and there’s no reason that he shouldn’t be able to reproduce, and even surpass his previous success. With King Rex promising a ground and pound attack Leon will assume a more featured role in our offense, and he will shred opposing defenses for long gains making the Jets a force to be reckoned with on the ground.
Paranoid – Thomas Jones is old, Leon is only good in a small offensive role, and Greene is just that – green. Last year the running game was good only because opponents couldn’t stack the box with a wily veteran like Brett Favre behind center, and our offensive line had a freak, injury-less year. After such a big season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thomas’s production drop sharply as the wear and tear of life as an NFL running back catches up with him. I don’t care how many bicep curls you can do with your earlobe, at a certain age you physically become a different person. If you look at Leon in 2006 when he had a more featured role in our offense, he wasn’t all that spectacular. Mangini used him in a smart way, to catch opposing defenses off guard with his speed later in the game when defenders were tired and he had fresh legs. With defenses bringing more players into the box to counter Ryan’s proclaimed “all-weather offense,” and without having to worry about Brett Favre, Leon will be shut down as there won’t be as much space for him to maneuver and too many tackles to break in order for him to escape to daylight. Maybe he breaks a few big runs this season, but he sees the end zone much less, and his YPC drops significantly.
The Offensive Line
Optimistic – The O-line will build upon its successful year last year and progress as a unit to maintain its place as one of the league’s elite. D’Brickashaw will continue to be a solid, dependable pass blocker and may even become more reliable in the run game. Mangold will assume a role as one of the top centers in the league, and will continue to play an injury-free game. Alan Faneca will ignore his advancing age (I’m not saying he’s old, he’s just older) and will be a dominating force at the point of attack, while providing the vocal, veteran leadership we have come to expect from him. Damien Woody, and Brandon Moore will round out the O-line with nasty run blocking and solid pass blocking. As a unit, they will stay as healthy as last year, providing Mark or Kellen with enough time to go through their progressions and opening holes for TJ and Leon.
Paranoid – Our O-line is good, but injuries are guaranteed this season. Whether it’s D’Brick, Nick, Alan, Damien or Brandon someone is going to go down for at least a few games. When that happens, good luck to their replacement. The lack of depth on this team for many positions is startling, and though the Jets were fortunate enough not to deal with extensive injuries with Iron Man Favre at the helm last year, one awkward step can take a lineman out for games at a time. Playing at the offensive line is physically rigorous as it is, and with a rookie quarterback who will make mistakes like holding the ball for too long, it gets even more demanding. The Jets will see one or two of this unit fall for at least a game during the season, and though it won’t be disastrous it will certainly negatively affect our chances for a winning record.
The Wide Receivers
Optimistic – The wide receiver unit isn’t nearly as bad as has been trumpeted by the New York news media. It’s not like we have a bunch of quadriplegic, blind guys playing for us; just no one who is famous yet. The wide receivers on our roster are professional, NFL football players. One of them will step up during the course of the season and compliment Jerricho Cotchery in a starting role. Between David Clowney, Chansi Stuckey, Brad Smith and the waiver wire WR’s we have, there has got to be at least one who is ready to take his career to the next level. And let’s not forget Dustin Keller who will be drawing coverage all season long and perhaps open up space for our slot receivers to make an impact. We don’t need great wide receivers anyway, it’s Mark Sanchez’s rookie season, we’ll be running the ball all day long.
Paranoid – Jerricho Cotchery: strong, good hands, slow. Chansi Stuckey: strong, good hands, quick, slower straight-line speed. David Clowney: fast, but still learning his craft. Brad Smith: please. Our wide receivers won’t get any separation all season long. All opposing defenses will have to do is sit in coverage and wait, as no one spread out wide will be going anywhere very fast. Expect lots of picks from Sanchez and few TD throws to anyone but Keller.
So which one is a legitimate prediction for our season? Well, in my opinion, things are never as good as you hope and never as bad as you fear. Are we going to go undefeated with Golden Boy under center? Probably not. Are we going to repeat what the Lions did last year? I don’t think so. I think between nine and ten wins are perfectly reasonable for this team. Do you?
22 Responses to The Paranoid Fan vs. The Optimistic One
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Dan — welcome aboard. Nice job!
You hit the nail right on the head — I often find myself swinging between Dr. Optimistic and Mr. Paranoid. Of course, right now before training camp, it’s Dr. Optimistic in control. But I’m sure right after the first bad game, ol’ Mr. Paranoid will rear his ugly head again!
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BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
Hiiiiiii Daaaaannnnn !
[ he said, in his best 12 step program voice...]
:-)
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Thanks very much, I feel the same way hopefully the paranoid stays in his closet for the rest of the year.
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JT Murray says:
Nice read and it was funny you should write for the New York TImes!
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Uncle Paul says:
Hey Dan,
Great job, and fine analysis. But now that you’ve given us both sides, who’s going to win out in your brain by week 6: Mister Yin or Mister Yang? -
We have a very good defense….. we have a great OL (with very little depth) with a top 5 running game……. our offense is thin and we might have trouble scoring points if we cannot find a respectable option opposite Cotch and the QB struggles. Hopefully our stud D Keller can offset this.
Our specials teams are top notch and can win games for us and get us hidden yards and points.
We will be in the mix for the Wild Card with 10 wins or so and then hope to make some noise in the playoffs. We are not ready to compete for 12 wins and AFC East Champs unless Brady isnt Brady.
I think this is going to ber a fun year. Rex will have the guys flying around and we have very little pressure to be great ……. Maybe we can shock some people??
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igs says:
Let’s not forget the “Seen all the B.S. season after season” fan.
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StvDoe says:
I’m convinced that the Jets will win 11 games this year.
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Or maybe 6. -
Bent says: Good article. Interestingly, I almost did an article based on the same concept, but I was going to take the extremities a lot further…(turn on 80′s stand-up comedian voice)…and it might have sounded a little something like this:
Thomas Jones
Optimistic
What people don’t realize about TJ is that he’s a player on the rise, because he barely played his first few seasons. He’s got like a 30 year old brain and 25 year old legs. Deadly combination. He scored 13 more TDs last year than he did in the previous season. If he carries (no pun intended) on at that rate, he’ll score 28 TDs in 2009. Plus, he’s a frickin’ bargain at less than a million dollars. That’s bang for your buck. Ever since he pwnd Travis Daniels with a stiff-arm so stiff it made Greg Ostertag weep, it’s been clear he’s ready to power the Jets into the NFL’s elite. And look what it cost them to get him: A 2nd round pick for TJ and a second round pick…they gave up nothing! That’s a return of infinity percent! And he’s under contract for another year after this one. The future is bright.Paranoid
Thomas Jones? I mean, look at the guy. All-jacked up…he’s nothing more than an OLD Vernon Gholston. Everybody was saying he was washed up in pre-season last year and that the Jets should have gotten rid of him while they still could. They were right! Last year was a mirage – just the last death throes of a once-promising career decomposing before our very eyes. His whole success was down to the offensive line as he waded through holes that could have made Kevan Barlow a 1,000 yard runner. Look at how he fell off at the end of last season. This season, he’s going to fall back considerably…if he even plays at all because it sounds like he’s gonna hold out. He’s probably on steroids anyway. -
Chrebet says:
It’s a pleasure to note that despite all the torment and ineptitude that the media has constantly reminded us fans of over the years, the fan base, at least on this blog , seems to be for the most part optimistic about the future of this franchise. Fans seem to be fired up about Rex and the D, and despite the lack of a complete body of work in college, this kid Sanchez seems to have the “It” factor plus many other tangiable qualities that suggest he will be a true franchise QB if he can stay healthy.
I implore the fans to stay positive in 09 even if the losses start piling up as long as we see positive developments from both the HC and the QB (even if it is KC). I will be at each game making noise and I hope that together we can create a hellish and hostile environment for the visiting QB, esp on 3rd down
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SackDance99 says:
I’ll do a short version:
Special Teams:
Optimist
Forget the wedge rule, with Leonhard as the punt returner, Pro Bowl Leon as the KR and Izzo on the punt and kickoff teams, the Jets will have the best special teams in the NFL, ensuring that opposing teams start in the shadow of their endzones and the Jets near mid-field.
Pessimist
The new wedge rule costs the Jets a penalty on a Leon TD against the Pats. Westhoff canes the ref like Brooks did to Sumner (Bent, sorry, US history reference http://randomthoughtsonhistory.blogspot.com/2009/06/flashback-moment-sumners-caning.html), he’s led off the field by the NJ State Police and the season is lost.
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Lonnie G says:
Great post. I was just thinking that schizophrenic is a great way to describe Jet fans, especially me. One day I’m thinking they could be Super Bowl favorites, the next day I’m thinking they may not win more than 5 games. For this team, this year, I think it is fair to be pessimistic on certain issues (QB, WR, chances of staying injury free) and fair to be optimistic on others(running game, impoved defense, new coaching staff). One thing I don’t like is people using our schedule as a way to predict a poor season. If you’ve watched the NFL over the last several years, you should know that you cannot predict how a schedule will play out anytime before Septemeber. Who would have predicted we beat NE and Tenn and lose to Oak and Sea?
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Bent says:
If I was your target audience for a caning simile, you should have gone with Mr. Fuji from the WWF.
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Great article Dan and welcome to the team!
Let’s hope “Tanny” got the team vaccinated to prevent the bad luck from creeping in this season.
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The Green Lantern #80 says:
WOW that Paranoid one on the O Line got me worried now…
Good Job Dan. -
Dean Barbella says:
Pessimistic: Rich Kotite
Optimistic: Rex Ryan
Pessimistic: Dewayne Robertson
Optimistic: Vernon Gholston
Pessimistic: Thomas Jones 2008
Optimistic: Thomas Jones 2009
Pessimistic: Levarnius Coles
Optimistic: Plaxico Burress
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James in TN says:
Good article.
Optimistic: Mark Sanchez
Paranoid: Eric the Mainge Ainge
Optimistic: Pace’s suspension being reduced
Paranoid: Vernon Gholston
Optimstic: Pats 5-11 this year
Paranoid: Pats 6-10 this year
GO JETS!!!!!!!!!
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No'treDamus says:
Dan,
Great post, but let’s not forget (on the paranoid side) the real Jets killer…how many years have we seen the JETS look pretty solid only to be undone by the D backs giving up long pass plays at crucial moments?
When is that going to stop for more than a half season? It’s almost as bad as the third down draw play for a 7 yard loss ! -
T-Money says:
Since it’s the offseason, and this is a team that had 7 Pro Bowlers last year and has a new, exciting QB, right now, I’m optimistic. Still, for a first year head coach, I don’t know that it’s fair to expect 9 or 10 wins.
I know this was only a look at the defense, but I think the real question is Kris Jenkins. Sure, we know now that Favre had some shoulder problems late last season, but I maintain that the difference in the last few weeks was Jenks. So, I expect about 2 fewer wins than weeks that Kris can stay healthy and comfortable.
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(Err, only a look at the offense…)
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Ethan says:
Sick write up good read. Dan is the man
If your a fan you have to be optimistic. We all know there will be dark days but I really think this team is moving in the right direction. We have added and spent alot but I think for once we have most spots covered and will be able to sprinkle in talent from here on out.
I think Mr. T has done a good job so far.