The QB Puzzle
Over the coming days and weeks, we’re going to be working in some new bloggers into the TJB team. So please welcome Rich Forestano (who you can find on twitter @richforestano) to the gang.
With all the wide receiver talk going around Jetland recently, it’s time to focus on the position that will be slinging the pigskin to wideouts starting Sept. 13 at Houston: the quarterback. As you already know, the Jets have a new golden boy in Mark Sanchez GQ-ing it up this offseason while competing for the starting job against three-year (entering fourth) “veteran” Kellen Clemens. Coach Rex Ryan has said on numerous occasions that he likes what he sees from both of his helmsman and that a decision won’t be made until there’s game-tape to dissect and analyze, yet sources have said the organization is quietly pulling for Sanchez.
So who will win this battle of the “ages”?
Clemens has been waiting to take the reigns for a long time, sitting behind Chad Pennington for two years and Brett Favre for one while grinding his teeth in the process. The Oregon alum has been a stand-up guy to his new teammate Sanchez and open with the media about the competition that will ensue (kind of already is) come July 31st at SUNY Cortland.
He needs to win this job so that he can showcase to other teams that he can play in this league, being that it’s almost certain that this season could be his last in green and white. This is Clemens’ “$#&! or get off the pot” year. Or was it 2007? Or 2008? Or….forget it.
Here are a few things Clemens has dealt with since being drafted in 2006:
Lady in Waiting: Eric Mangini took Clemens in the second round four years ago to groom to give the Jets someone to turn to down the road. Then came the ankle injury to Pennington which gave Clemens a chance to show he was worth a second round pick, but due to poor WR play and an overall dreadful season, (see Justin McCareins dropped ball in Baltimore during the Jets 2007 20-13 loss) Clemens’ performance on the field was marginal at best and waned in those eight starts. Plus the defense gave up 134.8 rushing YPG so there’s plenty of blame to go around. He has played his entire career with someone looming in his way or behind him. First it was Pennington, then Favre and now it’s Sanchez. Person to feel bad for in all this: Erik Ainge.
Brett Favre: Is there really a point to get into this one? Even though Pennington was ahead in the QB “competition” before being released then subsequently ending the Jets season four months later, in came Brett Favre and Clemens was back to full clipboard duty. So instead of having a QB coming off an injury-plagued year to battle with, he had a future Hall of Fame QB stepping in for one “last” run which will most likely continue in Minnesota in 2009. Again, Clemens was John Q. Public and addressed the Favre situation with class, but it had to ruffle his feathers a little bit right? Now he has to contend with a young star-to-be-born in Mark Sanchez. For what it’s worth, at least Clemens got to showcase how much patience he has over the last four seasons (this is where you laugh hopefully).
Eric Mangini: Maybe now that he’s gone and a new laid back Rex Ryan is in the driver’s seat, Clemens will open up both on and off the field. Mangini showed flashes of brilliance in his first season taking Gang Green to the playoffs, but failed to do so in 2007 and 2008. From the looks of Mangini’s tenure, he made football more about business than it being fun. Ryan seems to be taking the opposite approach so stay tuned on that one.
If it were based on experience alone, Clemens would be under center Week One, but as we all know, Tannenbaum and Co. didn’t draft Sanchez to sit on the sidelines looking pretty. His selection was both calculated and planned out from PSL’s to jersey sales. Sanchez is an entity the organization can use to sell those pricey seats in its new stadium next season, especially if he turns out to be what the organization thinks he can be.
He wowed the Jets GM and owner during pre-draft workouts and interviews. Sanchez possesses a superstar-type personality and makeup that has already made him a fan favorite in New York. But looking good doesn’t win football games.
With the propensity of teams looking to win now regardless of experience, a lot will be expected of Sanchez if he indeed wins the job. Whoever suits up as the QB this season must be praying that the powers that be go out and get a decent target to offset the rest of the group.
Jets brass has not been shy about pulling off groundbreaking deals to get the player they want. Just look at this year and last year.
Jets fans are probably saying to themselves in regards to Sanchez, ‘If Matt Ryan can do it, why can’t Sanchez?’ Yeah, which is why hindsight is 20/20.
18 Responses to The QB Puzzle
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James in TN says:
Great article!!! I do feel bad that we have Eric Ainge on the team. Clemens will make a great back up. Just wish we had Brett back from Cleveland to compete with Sanchez.
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Mikekamin says:
Hey Rich, welcome, good article!
Let’s not forget we selected Clemens in the 2nd round passing on Jay Cutler. The old GM whose name I refuse to mention told fans, the press and anyone who would listen that the kid from Oregon had a better upside than Cutler! So we made no attempt to be aggresive inthat draft and get Cutler leaving us years later still awaiting our franchise QB. Let’s hope Sanchez is more like Carson Palmer and less like Matt Lienart!
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Thank the good lord we have inquisitive Jets fans commenting…MSM, very good comparison to flacco. If Ryan can get that type of performance out of Sanchez providing he wins the job, the Jets can do damage this year. They definitely have to run the ball, and hopefully LW and TJ’s situation gets cleared up for the offense’s sake.
And James I agree, Ratliff was a fan favorite (and a Mangini one obviously). Plus Ratliff is a competitor. Whenever I spoke to him in the locker room he was all about the game. I’m not surprised that the Browns asked for Ratliff during the draft. But it looks like he’ll be sitting for a while, unless Anderson just flops or Quinn gets hurt.
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Pdubbs says:
Yea a million what if’s. I’m not sure Cutler would have worked for us. Cutler had a pretty good system and a sick WR to play with. Lets see how much upside he has with the Bears.
Anyway, I think Sanchez will workout so long as the rest of the team plays as planed. I like the pick, it’s the guy they wanted and it had to happen eventually.
Seriously, does anybody want to watch Clemens ? Sanchez has to start or else we will be stuck like the Browns with 2 QB’s
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SackDance99 says:
I prefer comparing the 2009 Jets with the 2004 Steelers. In 2003, the Steelers had a disappointing season with a declining veteran QB (Tommy Maddox) and a defense, while talented, under-achieved. But, the pieces were in place. What changed in 2004? Dick LeBeau came back and brought his aggressive, 3-4 blitzing defense back and a rookie QB, Big Ben, played game manager behind a punishing running game that racked up over 600 carries, while spreading the ball among 5 RBs/FBs. The team went 16-1, before Big Ben showed he was a rookie against the Pats in the AFC Championship game.
We already have Faneca from the 2004 Steelers, if the Jets sign Plax, the paralells will be spooky.
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MSM says:
Sackdance…thank you, that was awesome
We can only hope those parallels play out except the whole Pats part…gross…I even hate typing their name.
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MSM,
Thanks. Of course, the Steelers also happened to draft a guy named Polamalu in 2004 and he kinda worked out, too. Also, Big Ben went 13-0 in the regular season and didn’t start until the 3rd game. Point is, with a good defense and punishing ground game, a rookie can start and prosper. The Steelers only passed around 37% of the time in Big Ben’s rookie season. Although, I think Schotty’s head would explode if the Jets ran over 60% of the time.
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are-tee says:
“Then came the shoulder injury to Pennington which gave Clemens a chance to show he was worth a second round pick”…
Clemens was drafted after Pennington’s last shoulder injury/surgery, which was in 2005. Chad had an ankle injury in the season opener in 2007, but he only missed one game because of it. Clemens only got the chance to start in the second half of that year because the Jets weren’t winning with Pennington, and Mangini had nothing left to lose.
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seanmac31 says:
Sack,
You’ve brought up that Steelers rebound as a potential comparison several times, so let’s have a closer look at the numbers and see if that’s a reasonable one or not.
First off, let’s look at the basic numbers:
PIT record: 6-10
DVOA: -1.6% (19)
Offense: -8.3% (19)
Defense: -3.3% (15)NYJ record: 9-7
DVOA: 5.4% (17)
Offense: 5.1% (18)
Defense: 2.5% (14)Even allowing for the easier schedule, the 08 Jets were the better team. That said, their superiority came from the offense. Pittsburgh’s defense, although ranked lower due to the tougher defensive environment of 2003, was notably better than the Jets, and their special teams were top three.
What went wrong for Pittsburgh in 2003? Well, they did have declining play from Tommy Maddox, whose DVOA dropped from 9.5% in 2002 to -2.3% the following year. Still, the big problem wasn’t the passing game, which dropped from 9th to 16th in the league. It was the running game, which collapsed, going from the 16th best in 2002 to the worst in the league in 2003. Was there a connection with Maddox’s worsening play? Yep- it was the injuries they sustained on the offensive line. Marvel Smith only played six games at left tackle; Alan Faneca actually started eight at LT in Smith’s place, forcing Keydrick Vincent into the lineup. Oliver Ross missed another five games at right tackle, so you’re looking at a collected 23 games where the Steelers were either missing starters or playing them out of position along the offensive line. In 2004? No one missed a game, and the Steelers didn’t have to juggle their line once. Needless to say, they were better the following year, as their Adjusted Line Yards jumped from 3.82 to 4.60.
The Jets line last year also didn’t miss a single game, and their Adjusted Line Yards was 4.72, even better than the 2004 Steelers (though not as good as the 2004 Jets). But that’s the thing- they have nowhere to go but down, as they are unlikely to stay injury free for another complete season.
Let’s look at the defense. You’re suggesting that Dick Lebeau came in and changed up the scheme, resulting in a more aggressive defense that better utilized the talent. Well…that’s not entirely the case. The Steelers had been a top ten defense in 2002, 2001 and 2000. They were excellent against the run in all those years, and they were excellent again in 2003, posting a -12.1% DVOA, 7th best in the league. The problem was the pass defense, which fell off from -4.1% in 2002 to a positive 7% in 2003. That’s a big drop. Of course, in 2002, the starting corners missed a combined 1 game due to injuries. In 2003, they missed 8. So again, what the Steelers needed to improve was not necessarily a more aggressive scheme- in 2002, when the corners were healthy, they put up 51 sacks and had an Adjusted Sack Rate of 8.5%, numbers that were as good as or better than their pass rush numbers in 2004 with Lebeau (42 sacks, 8.7% ASR).
The Steelers were going to get better simply by getting healthier. The Jets don’t have that cushion, because they are highly unlikely to remain as healthy as they were last year.
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StvDoe says:
Who pee’d in Rudy’s kool aid?
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94 lightning says:
great article rich but who is either qb going to throw to?
The jets need a deep threat to throw to or defenses will have a field day against them . As for the running game have they signed leon washington? -
Rich F says:
Are-tee, thanks for picking that up. Should’ve wrote ankle injury. However, Pennington revealed last July before he was released to make room for Favre that he played with two torn ligaments in his ankle in 2007, which was the ankle injury against the Patriots. Mangini had plenty to lose, like his top QB for his career if he continued to play on it.
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94 lightning, no they haven’t signed LW yet. Give me a call :)
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Zartan says:
MSM, all that team was missing was a QB(see VIck) they got a receiver then a QB and then they were on the map. their defense was top notch. IMO dont give Ryan the freak of nature tag yet cause though his season was a freak of nature with that running game, i think Flacco and Sanchez will have better careers than Ryan and his fluke season.Im not saying he’s a bad QB.
I see more talent in Sanchez than in the 3 of them. Sanchez may never reach (think he will) but has the most up side.
Matt Ryan: will put up the same numbers every year, solid all around QB.
Joe Flacco: has a crazy long ball and good fast ball,did what he was told and probably cant do anything else.
Mark Sanchez: All around QB who is a playmaker that can one day be mentioned in the top 10 all time.
These are my opinions on the vision i have on these guys so feel free to share yours.
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miketaliaferro says:
I fear mightily for this franchise if Sanchez is, indeed, given the starting nod amid all the hoopla that will ensue, and then falls flat on his pretty face. IF Tanny and Woody put so many eggs into this basket and some of them get cracked, will we be right back here gnashing our teeth and moaning, “Oh, woe is us!” a few weeks into the season?
I’m praying Sexy has the cojones to fight off the pressure from above, and if training camp says Clemens is your best bet to win, he puts Clemens out there. If camp says Franchez is your best best to win, you put HIM out there.
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Zartan,
Atlanta’s defense was 25th in the league last year. I’m not sure how that qualifies as top notch.
Matt Ryan is a freak of nature… id rather say “if Flacco can do it why cant Sanchez?”. Ryan stepped into a an awful situation and turned that entire franchise around. The Jets arent nearly as bad as the Falcons were before Ryan. So if he can emulate Flacco, take it easy, let us run the ball, and protect the football, than Sanchez will surely become the stud he is projected to become. Clemens was drafted as a backup… to be a backup. Sanchez was drafted as a starter…. to be a starter. Theres a big difference there. Plus… no one holds a sexier clipboard than Clemens. He should do a spread in GQ too, except instead of a model he’ll be cuddling with his clipboard.