Link: Pro Versus Spread
John from Gang Green Nation looks at the difference between spread and pro system quarterbacks and the differences for those players when they come out of college. John takes a look at a few different areas, but one sticks out most to me.
In a spread offense, just about every snap comes from the shotgun. In pro systems, most snaps come from under center. A lot goes into working under center. A quarterback needs good mechanics while dropping back, namely the ability to use proper footwork and scan a defense. It requires repetition to master. Spread quarterbacks have to learn how to do this from scratch.
It’s a point worth making and one that I’ve not made nearly enough, maybe there is something to be said for practicing and growing up in college in a pro style system already. The Football Outsiders love the Lewin Forecast (looking at college starts and accuracy to predict NFL success) but I wonder if type of offense factors into the process as well … seems like it should.
5 Responses to Link: Pro Versus Spread
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seanmac31 says:
http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2009/07/nfl-offense-what-is-it-why-does-every.html
Looking at the question from the other way around.
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thanks sean! you snap right to attention when FO is mentioned, and I’m glad for it!
Your point is an excellent one on the factors, like Cutler’s cast at Vandy. Not exactly a hotbed of OL and WR prospects, year in and out! :)
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SackDance99 says:
I wonder if this makes Sanchez’s USC starts worth more than a typical Div I start because USC has the epitome of a pro style offense and Sanchez’s 65.8 completion percentage was the highest this decade for a USC QB (higher than Booty, Leinart and Palmer), his TDs (34) were second highest to Leinart’s 38 in 2003 (on a far superior team), and his 164.64 QB rating was, again, the highest this decade. Maybe his 16 starts equal the 40+ starts that Cutler had that made him a Lewin Forecast god.
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Dave says:
The spread does factor into the Lewin Foecast. One important piece of information you’re leaving out of the Lewin forecast(and that a lot of other people leave out as well) is that it only applies to QBs drafted in the first two rounds. The idea is that scouts can weed out who is a system QB and who is not, and the number of collegiate starts is important because it gives them more film to do so.
The type of offense is factored in, primarily in two ways. One, it limits itself to first and second round quarterback prospects, thus eliminating the possibility of guys with questionable skills racking up big numbers in a college offense. The second way is by comparing a player’s performance to that put up by previous quarterbacks at the same program who are presumably playing under the same conditions. That’s why Jay Cutler looked like a great prospect despite completing only 58% of his passes- because the Vandy quarterbacks before him only completed 48% of theirs! Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford’s numbers aren’t any better than David Greene, who went in the third round and washed out of the league fairly quickly.