Playoffs?! Defensive Edition
The New York Jets 2009 campaign should be an exciting one with some key acquisitions made during the offseason to help bolster the defense. A new Head Coach in defensive guru Rex Ryan, brings with him a new defensive scheme that placed the Baltimore Ravens 3rd overall in the league in total defense last year, marching his old team straight into the playoffs despite having a very “average” offense.
Many Jets fans heading into the season are torn (as usual) as to what the Jets can accomplish on the field this year. Will the team require an adjustment period learning a new defensive system? If so, how long will it take for the defense to play as a refined unit and become one of the leagues best?
Are they a playoff contender or pretender?
Let’s take a quick look and what might be needed from individual contributors or groups for the team to have a successful 2009 season.
CB Darelle Revis — Revis’ maturation process leads to another Pro Bowl selection, solidifying his place as a premiere shut down corner in the league. Healthy competition between cornerbacks Dwight Lowery and Lito Sheppard leaves the Jets with a very solid, deep secondary.
FS Kerry Rhodes — Puts up another stellar season as one of the league’s top three Safeties.
SS Jim Leonhard — Picks up were he left off in Baltimore, calling the teams coverage schemes and leaving fans forgetting the numerous blown coverages of year’s past.
The ILB Corps — Bart Scott & David Harris form one of the league’s most feared tandems. Leaving opposing Running Backs wishing they hadn’t been asked to carry the ball 20 times a game.
OLB Calvin Pace — Returns to form after serving his four game suspension and becomes the edge rusher the team so desperately needs. Vernon Gholston records his 1st NFL sack while contributing in the absence of Pace. He then splits time with Bryan Thomas for the remaining 12 regular season games, eventually taking the starting position and leaving Jets fans dreaming with visions of Terrell Suggs.
NT Kris Jenkins — Jinx bolstered his offseason conditioning program and plays like a beast for all 16 regular season games. A solid rotation establishes behing him, allowing him to get some spells, leaving him refreshed and strong in December for the teams playoff push.
DE Shaun Ellis — Puts up another solid season, leading or coming close to the team lead again in sacks while stopping the run just as well.
Kicker Bonus!! — PK Jay Feely puts up respectable numbers while showing you don’t need to waste a 2nd round pick on a Kicker from Ohio State!
So, what do you think? If all or most goes as described, is this team poised for a playoff run in December? Or is this team destined to leave us fans disappointed and convincing ourselves “next year will be our year”?
Filed under: Main Page, Opinion
Two R’s in Darrelle. I don’t think it’ll be a “competition” between Sheppard and Lowery.. It’s Lito’s job.
As usual, the Jets will make a whole lotta noise in training camp. They will say all the right things. They will praise the coach and the front office. They’ll point to the QB and say we have ourselves a franchise QB…..yadda, yadda, yadda. Then, predictably, they will go out and prove once again they are nothing more than a punchline.
Here’s hoping that some young guy emerges to help out Marques Douglas as well. That could end up being our biggest hole on defense.
Oh, I disagree. If Lito is playing anything like he has for the last two seasons, I would expect Lowery to beat him out. Lito has been one of the worst corners in the NFL the last two years.
tonynic,
If you are a Jets fan then I hate your attitude. Buck up.
Our defense will shine. We have studs at every level of the D. Depth is an issue, especially on the D line, but Rex will make the most of this unit’s talent.
Yes Seanmac, but I think that has more to do with his being in the Eagles doghouse then with him not being a good player. I strongly expect that he will return to the level he was when he went to two probowls.
I suspect that tonynic is a Giants fan.
Ramble,
He actually wasn’t very good when he went to Pro Bowls, either, at least not in terms of his coverage. He made interceptions in a high pressure defense, but aside from one year, he’s generally been pedestrian at limiting receptions and yardage to his side. And the reason he got into the Eagles doghouse was because he was not playing well and they went out and dropped a ton of change to replace him.
Sheppard was a low risk flier, but he’s just that- a flier. The odds are good that he is simply done as even a somewhat productive player, and I would put the odds at no worse than 40-60 that Lowery beats him out, and possibly higher.
seanmac31,
enjoy your take on things. just curious where revis stacks up on the metrics you mentioned re sheppard?
jet fans tend to waaay overhype players. jonathan vilma is a good recent example. but i think revis is an exception/he lives up to the hype. pls let us know what the numbers say.
thanks in advance.
jeff i
Revis had a good year. He didn’t have the top five corner in the league kind of year that some people think he did, but he gave up around 6.3 yards per pass and stopped offensive success (meaning 40% of yardage on 1st down, 60% on 2nd and a conversion on 3rd or 4th) 55% of the time. Both are good numbers.
Lito, in his limited targets (37), was successful 48% of the time and gave up 9.7 yards per pass. Lowery had a lower success number-44%- but gave up substantially less yardage- 7.4. And Lowery compensated by being one of the best runstopping corners in the league.
Sean, thanks for giving me that link. When i have time I will check it out.
When Lito was at his peak, he was an LCB covering the offense’s no. 1 WR. On the Jets he will be the RCB and will be covering no. 2 WRs. It is likely that whoever is the RCB will be tested (Lowery in 10 starts had 16 PDs, the same as Revis in 16 starts) because Revis is a “shutdown corner” and should further improve. While he will be picked on, Lito will also be drawing an easier assignment and passing left with authority is something that Brady does well, but not Chad or Trent. It is very hard for me to predict how Lito will handle this role, but he could be very good. Anyhow, I like Lowery and never thought the Jets needed to get Lito. Now, the Jets have decent depth at CB and seem well set up to play the Pats. I wonder who will cover Welker in the slot in 3 WR formations?
Considering Revis played on a defense that created no pressure whatsoever, I’m not surprised that his FO numbers fall outside of the top five, but in context he was spectacular last year.
As you said yourself, Lito’s numbers were best when he was in a high pressure defense and I’m sure that’s no coincidence.
Well, that’s not quite true- the Eagles (like most teams at this point) didn’t assign their #1 corner on the other team’s #1 receiver. They treated Sheppard and Brown as 1A and 1B. Lito should know how to play in a pressure defense, but he needs to make interceptions or he’s not worth much. The last few years, he’s stopped intercepting the ball almost completely.
He might work out, but I have much lower expectations of him than most seem to. I do like Lowery, though, who can develop into a very solid complimentary corner.
seanmac,
Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats threw down the statistical gauntlet, indirectly responding to your pessimistic outlook of the Jets by opining that, statistically, predictions are worthless:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/22/an-antidote-to-pessimism-on-the-jets/
Any response?
Bent,
Yeah, I don’t put the same kind of direct correlation between player quality and stats for a position like corner than you would for, say, quarterback. Corner is so dependent on other positions and on how an offense attacks you. There’s no question that the best corner in the game right now is Asomugha, but he doesn’t have the best stat line, as teams never go at him. The top stat lines generally go to good corners who are in the right situation. (For example, Antoine Winfield has killer stats. Still sad that he got away, actually.)
I wanted to address a point you made in Part 1 of this post, Sack, where you said that it should have been obvious that D. Woody would have a decent year last year because he had been a solid player, joined an inferior team and struggled (perhaps through lack of motivation), but then got a fresh start with a decent unit last year and returned to form (or words to that effect).
I agreed with this point, but it got me thinking…if this is usually the case then wouldn’t you agree that Springs and Bodden could prove to be great signings for the Pats? Sorry for the tangent, but it just kind of occurred to me. Maybe Lito fits in here somewhere too, although some would argue that from Philly to the Jets is a step backwards.
“Now, the Jets have decent depth at CB and seem well set up to play the Pats. I wonder who will cover Welker in the slot in 3 WR formations?”
I expect the plan will be the same…Revis will sometimes be on Welker with the other CB and safety support covering Moss and sometimes the reverse situation. This time though, even ignoring what Lito and Strickland do for the depth, they will get more pressure and the safety valves will be harder to hit because Harris and Scott can cover better than Barton and Bowens.
Sack,
He’s right, or right to a point, anyway. The first job of statistics is not to make predictions but to analyze and better understand things that have already happened. But as far as predictions, go, the issue isn’t whether or not you can predict how many wins a team will or won’t have, but what the basic league trends are going to be. I don’t know if the Rams are going to win 7 games, 8 games or 10 games, but I know that the numbers suggest they’re going to be the most qualitatively improved team in the league next year. I also can’t say for certain that San Diego is going to go 14-2, but I know that their projection looks better than any team in the league. If they play well, does it really matter if they go 12-4 or 14-2?
I agree, Sean. I’ve seen Nnamdi play in person twice and he is absolutely flawless. Outstanding, even.
I certainly don’t think the CB stats are worthless – they had Justin Miller pegged, for sure.
If the Jets can stop the run, Revis might see more balls thrown his way next year out of desperation (and because the safety valve will not be as easy to hit) so hopefully his numbers will improve again.
seanmac,
It’s not that teams “assign” their no. 1 CB to the opposing team’s no. 1 WR, it’s that the no. 1 WR usually plays on the right. Like I said, only a handful of QBs have the arm strength to throw all the NFL patterns to their left consistently. So, why waste the talents of your no. 1 WR? Point is that, usually, Lito as LCB played the no. 1 WR and, now, as the RCB, he won’t. That’s basic football. Plus, the Eagles are a unique team because Sheldon Brown is a shutdown CB and plays RCB. That made Lito’s failings at LCB more acute because teams pick on the LCB more than the RCB when they face the Eagles, which is somewhat atypical. Even last season, Assante Samuel had more PDs than Brown. So, IMO, Lito will get picked on, but he usually will not be covering the no. 1 WR.
No, he’ll be covering the slot receiver. :-)
Bent,
How good are Bodden and Springs? Springs last Pro Bowl season was in 1998…how much is left in his 34-year old tank? Bodden played RCB with the Browns and Detroit. He wasn’t tested much because (and I haven’t looked up the stats, but I think that I’m right) the Browns and Lions teams he was on were terrible against the run. He could be very talented, but he’s a question mark.
Woody made the Pro Bowl in 2002 with the Pats at Center and, then, took one for the team and moved to LG in 2003. He was a more established player and is younger than Springs and is at a position where many players continue to be effective into their late 30s. I don’t remember how good he was as an LG. Brady was sacked more in 2003, and the Pats running game stunk, but their RBs stunk. It’s tough to tell from the raw stats whether he was good or not. In 2004 with the Lions, he played RG between the same guys that were there in 2003. Now, it could be that Kevin Jones, a rookie in 2004, was responsible, but the Lions drastically improved their YPC from 3.6 to 4.4. In 2005, the Lions started a rookie RT next to Woody and Jones was injured. The YPC went back down to 3.6. A slight improvement in ‘06 to 3.7, with a revolving door at RT and injuries to the RBs. In ‘07, Woody played 8 games at RT (ending the revolving door) and the Lions went to a 4.0 YPC. In ‘08, without Woody, the YPC went back down to 3.8. Woody was out of shape and in Marinelli’s doghouse, but a motivated Woody helped the Lions running game in ‘04 and ‘07. He certainly helped the Jets last season.
My point is that maybe Woody was better with the Lions than appears at first blush. He and Kevin Jones join in 2004 and the YPC leaps to 4.4. He had a revolving door at RT for 2 seasons and the numbers go down, but then HE solidifies the RT position and the numbers go back up. Woody might have been a very good RG/RT on a very bad OL (Dave Loverne started for the Lions, enough said).
I don’t know if Bodden was a very good RCB on bad defenses. Springs was a steady player on both good and bad defenses, but now he’s 34. I expect that Bodden will be good, he has excellent size and the Pats are good at getting the most out of their players. But, Springs? Seems questionable.
seanmac,
I thought Lowery was fine and I’m okay with Lito covering the slot WR as the 3rd CB. Lito’s one of those low risk signings to see if he can flash that All-Pro form in a different surrounding. Also, Lowery doesn’t seem as well-suited for the slot, it’s usually faster guys that are good in the slot, like slot specialist Ray Mickens. It may be that Lito will cover the slot in 3 WR defenses, but that’s no what you meant. :-)
Well, hopefully you’re right…but the length of your response makes me believe that I at least got you thinking!
Bent,
Sorry about the length, I need FO’s database. LOL
Seanmac, without actually purchasing the projections for 2008, I was able to find six players projections from 08 so far and the results are not good:
2 of the 6 players had solid projections: Aaron Rodgers projection was excellent, and JJ Arington was very good. Here’s the bad:
Marshawn Lynch
proj: 330 carries for 1438 yds, 9td, 23 rec for 229yds 1t
actual: 250 for 1036, 8td; no receptions
DeSean Jackson
proj: 28 rec for 398 yds 2 td
act: 62 rec for 912 yds 2 td
Tony Gonzalez
proj: 72 rec for 848 yds 6td
act: 96 rec for 1058 yds 10td
Kyle Boller
proj: 478 att for 2605 yds
act: 0 att for 0 yds
To me, although a small sample, this shows the limitations of these projection models. I think the Tony Gonzalez stats make this projection tool look very bad. Here’s a player that has been in the league a long time and the projections couldn’t come close to actual. It’s almost understandable with a new player like DeSean Jackson, but there again we see how unpredictable the NFL is. And the Kyle Boller projection blows the lid off the whole thing. He never even played! So obviously, Boller’s projected stats went into his team’s overall projection, thereby screwing that up as well.
Pete,
Before your lid gets too blown, you should probably understand how the projection system works. Each player gets a projection based on the assumption of how they would perform in the course of 16 starts. So Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and Joe Flacco all got projections. Obviously we didn’t think that each of them was going to start 16 games.
As for Springs and Bodden, Springs has basically been one of the most underrated players in the league, and was putting up elite cornerback numbers as recently as two years ago. That said, he didn’t play much last year and is at an age where he could go to pieces all at once. Bodden was a tremendous player in Cleveland early on, but was injury prone, and his play slid his final season with the Browns. He was a dreadful fit in Detroit’s offense and performed much as you would expect. I would have preferred either player as a short term solution to Lito Sheppard, as when playing well they were both significantly better players, but it’s basically the same deal, particularly in Bodden’s case.
Sean, if that’s the case then there must have been a projection made for Clemens, although the main reason you gave for their negative projection was that Sanchez will struggle, so are you assuming he will start or is KC’s projection equally bad?
I recall that KC actually had a decent projection last year, but presumably has a much worse one this year. Would the difference between the two be solely due to the fact that injuries are expected (and the slight drop in the level of personnel caused by Coles leaving) or does it take into account the fact that he did not play last year and therefore downgrades him because he didn’t get to play?
Or has it not changed that much and therefore remains better than the projection for Sanchez, thereby suggesting that – according to the numbers – the Jets offense would be better if KC started? If that’s the case, what difference would using KC instead of Sanchez in the projections make to the Jets predicted record?
This is not a criticism of the methods, I’m genuinely interested in how it works.
Projections are a waste of time. Too many variables. For a QB, there is O-line play (which includes the transfer from Center), FB receiving ability, FB blocking ability, TE receiving ability, TE blocking ability, RB play, WR play, formations, play calling, opposing team (and everything that comes with them), etc…
For a DB, there is the opposing team and all the variables that come with them, the D-Line, the LBs, the formations, the play calls, the Safety play, etc…
This is not one-on-one tennis.
Without adjusting for all variables — predictions are nothing but guesswork and not even educated guesswork.
Bent,
Clemens has a better projection than Sanchez, but not a radically better one, as the Jets offense is due to drop off for a wide variety of reasons that go beyond quarterback. He projects to complete a higher percentage of his passes, but to amass only something in the neighborhood of 2,857 with 12 TDs and 13 INTs.
Better, but not Drew Brees staving off Philip Rivers, by any means.
what the hell are you eyes talking about. Just watch the games like the rest of us. You guys aren’t coaches. You have no idea about what going to happen next season.
Vernon is going to shine!!!! He is going to play like a silver back gorrilla!!!! I just have a feeling!!!
Of course nobody knows for sure what will happen next year, but it’s the OFFSEASON! Why wouldn’t you be interested in seeing the results of a statistical projection that a bunch of guys have put hundreds of hours of work into? You may, like me, disregard most of the projections and look ahead to the real games, but it’s still interesting to see that they have to say.
Also, as I’ve said before, I never use FO metrics to formulate my opinions, but most of the time – not always – their numbers back up what I thought.
Bent,
Because statistical predictions are meaningless.
You tell me how anybody can come up with statistics, without the input of data that correspond directly to the statistic.
Let’s take Sanchez’ upcoming season. Any statistics that you can throw out there have no validity. At this point, nobody has the slightest idea of how his season would go. Millions of variables. His season could range from spectacular to horrible. As opposed to a team that has been together for years, with a QB who has been in the league for eight years. In that situation, there is a better chance that the statistics would be close. And even then, there are an incredible amount of variables.
Anybody can choose unrelated data, to make a worthless prediction. Such as, basing Sanchez’ season on how previous rookie QB’s have done. How can you possibly compare rookie QB’s, when there are hundreds of variables that would skew the result. Just as with Flacco and Ryan, last year. They were close on Flacco and way off on Ryan. Meaning, their statistics were no better than flipping a coin.
If you used statistics, to analyze TJ’s first season with us, you would have come back with an opinion that told you TJ was not a good RB. If you watched him and knew what he was going through with the line, the gameplan, the formations, and the play calling — you would have a better idea, as to whether he was good back and if the variables that affected him were holding him back. So much for stats.
Statistics in a sport like football, where there are an incredible amount of variables, is a waste of time. If someone has nothing to do, sure read every statistic you can find. Have fun. As a lover of the game, I would rather enjoy the game than get bogged down in worthless statistics.
Don’t get me wrong, I agree, it’s nothing more than a guess, but in the absence of any real football to discuss, I’m still interested to see how it goes. Once the season starts I won’t have time for any of it.
Remember, I very rarely make predictions because of how worthless I think they are, so you don’t have to convince me.
I guess what I am saying is that I don’t “buy into” any of the projections, but they do make a useful starting point for debate around why you think the reality might differ from the projection (I think this is the main purpose of them, not to actually predict how the season will go). As you say, there are so many variables, the discussions we can have (as evidenced here) can go in any number of directions – and that’s one of the reasons this blog is here.
Seanmac You take stats way to seriously Football isn’t judged on numbers Dont tell me revis isn’t a top 5corner Just watch the games Do your stats account for the fact that darrelle is slmost always in single coverage with no safety help? Against the other teams best wr, with no legitimate pass rusher on our team! Come on man you say your a jet fan but it sounds like your simply a fan of the numbers Get over it man, watch a game and enjoy it
Harvlis,
For you.
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/07/football-outsiders-vs-vegas-2007-2009.html
Seanmac,
i would like you to answer my questions. How can you say Revis isnt a top 5 corner. When you factor ins everything, he is a 23 year old corner, with 2 full seasons experience. He has only allowed 3 TD’s in 32 games, mostly matched up against the other teams #1. He gets little t no safety help, and almost never has another corner to help him either. He plays on a team with a pathetic pass rush and still manages to shut down elite receivers week in and week out despite the opposing QB having all day to throw. So please, explain to me, without simply using football outsiders nerdy stats, how this guy isnt a top 5 corner.
As Bent said before, you have to look at the numbers in context. If Darrelle Revis played on a team with a feared pass rush such as Baltimore or the Giants then there is no doubt in my mind he would be a top 2 or 3 corner. So even if FO numbers say he wasnt top 5, do you honestly think he isnt?
Sorry for all of the typos, Im trying to get used to posting here using the iphone
Jesus,
I think I watched every game by every team last year, thanks to the combination of professional requirements and NFL Game Rewind. And your argument shows the problems with locking in on one team to the exclusion of others. It’s not like Revis was always in single coverage with no safety help- not even close. In fact, the Jets rushed three and dropped eight on over 25% of their snaps, by far the most in the league, and no one is locked up in single coverage with no safety help when a team is dropping eight. And the Jets pass rush was 12th in the league, which is hardly elite, but by no means bad, so it’s not like Revis was stuck out there all day with no help from the rush.
Anyway, I think the problem is that you’re not being specific with your terms. Are you talking about potential or production? Antonio Cromartie has the ability to be a top five corner, possibly a top three guy. Was he last year? No, he wasn’t even close. Does Revis have the potential to put up a top five performance next year? Probably. He has the gifts of a first round corner, he showed improvement from his rookie year, and he had a very good year. Did he turn in one of the top five cornerback performances last year? No, he did not. The Jets were 11th in the league against #1 receivers. Oakland was #2 last year, #1 the year before, and #2 the year before that. That’s dominance. (In fact, it almost doesn’t make sense to look at Asomugha’s numbers, which are good but not mind blowing, because teams only targeted him 32 times last year, despite his covering the #1 receiver. Now THAT’s mind blowing.)
Look at some very basic stats- how many times a corner was targeted, how many yards they gave up per target, and how often the corner prevented the receiver from gaining successful yardage (40-65-100 of necessary yardage to convert a first down).
Revis: 77 Targets, 53%, 6.3 AdjYds
A. Samuel: 73 Tgt, 56%, 6.5 Yds
S. Brown: 57 Tgt, 69%, 5.1 Yds
A. Winfield: 78 Tgt, 63%, 5.9 Yds
C. Webster: 69 Tgt, 62%, 5.4 Yds
C. Gamble: 99 Tgt, 53%, 5.8 Yds
Revis had a nice year, but it’s not hard to find corners who were as effective or more effective. Why do we need to get bent out of shape over whether or not he’s super duper good or merely very good?
Who says I’m out of shape?
Seanmac,
Me and you often disagree because you are very literal with your responses, which I respect very much. You have a large amount of stats at your disposal which you use to your advantage, stats that the average fa does not have access to. I am not as literal, which is my own fault and sometimes I expect people to know what I mean without being very specific which is my own fault. For instance, when I said the Jets pass rush is not elite, you respond back with a statistic; saying the Jets ranked 12th. I am well aware where they rank, but numbers are very misleading. The Jets pass rush in reality was not that good, regardless of the stats. Any jet fan knows this. Again, when I said Revis doent get much safety or corner help you take it too literally, but the reality is he doesnt get nearly as much as the majority of corners in the league. I watch him closely every game and I know this for a fact.
And yes, I am talking about both production and potential. The Antonio Cromartie reference is absurd, because while he does have all of the potential, he doesnt produce like a top 5 corner. Revis has the potential and he produces. He’s a pro bowl corner for a reason, and just so you know, Revis got no love from the fans during pro bowl voting, so he was essentially voted in by specifically the players and coaches.
The stat “the jets were 11th in the league vs #1 receivers” is ridiculous. The real stat should show what the number 1 receivers did while Revis was covering them, considering we both know he doesnt cover them every single play.
im not getting bent out of shape, I just dont understand how you can base everything off of just numbers and not account for all the variables, or more importantly, your own opinion. So again I ask, do you think Revis is a top 5 corner? If not, where do you rank him? top 10? 15? And if so, what corners are better than him? And I would like to know your own personal opinion, dont just give me a list from FO.
Jesus,
That’s a number of points, and I’ll try to respond to each.
-There is nothing misleading about the pass rush numbers. The Jets sacked quarterbacks on 6.8% of all pass attempts against them. Is that elite? No. Teams like Pittsburgh dropped quarterbacks on 8.7% pass attempts, while the Giants dropped QBs on 7.2% of pass attempts. Still, you accuse the Jets pass rush of not being that good simply because you didn’t spend your time watching, say, New Orleans or St. Louis last year. Look at it this way- that Jets pass rush that wasn’t very good was the best pass rush in the division. And as for getting help, again, the Jets rushed three and dropped eight on a good 25% of their snaps. Corners who are legitimately left on islands are guys who play for teams that bring the blitz a lot- for example, Philly, who rushed 6 on 18% of their snaps. Revis is left alone more than other corners on the team, but that’s not the same as saying he’s left alone more than other corners in the league. And while pass rush is absolutely important- there is a clear correlation between teams that had good pass rushes and teams that had corners who put up quality seasons, it’s not the be-all and end-all. The Raiders had the 6th best pass rush in football and were #2 at defending #1 receivers. In 2007, they had the 24th best pass rush and were #1 against #1 receivers. Meanwhile, they’re consistently at the bottom of the league against #2s. Asomugha is so good that teams will simply ignore their top wideout and go elsewhere where the pickings are easy.
I tried to show a mix of team stats and individual stats, in no small part because part of your argument was that Revis was always locked up on the other team’s best receiver. If you just want to look at Revis’ individual numbers, that’s fine. They were quite good, but there were plenty of corners who were better. Any of the corners who I threw up there are quite capable of putting up a better season than Revis, and Revis is capable of putting up a better season than them. It’s not like quarterback where I can put it in the bank that Peyton Manning is going to put up the best or second-best season, that Drew Brees and Tom Brady will be right behind, and that Philip Rivers will be crashing the party. Corner play is too dependent on factors around the player in question unless you’re just a transcendent, Hall of Fame type player like Asomugha. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the guys on that list who outperformed Revis last year did so again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Revis outperformed any of those guys. I don’t think it’s terribly important.
Again, I’ll draw a line between past performance and future possibilities. Was Revis a top 5 corner last year? No. Was he a top 10 corner? No. Does he have the ability to be a top 5 or a top 10 player this upcoming season? Sure, why not?
When they did drop 8, Rhodes usually helped out the other CB (usually Lowery), so that left Elam to support Revis. Given that Elam’s safety “help” is often more of a hindrance (remember when he took out Revis on a certain interception and it ended up being a TD in the 2007 Bills game?), I wouldn’t be surprised if they just told him to stay of out Darrelle’s way.
2008 is old news. Hopefully he’ll get to become a top level CB on both of your criteria.
One question, Sean…do those numbers just take into account how good the cornerback is in coverage? Revis is a good tackler, perhaps better than some of those ranked ahead of him according to FO’s numbers. I wonder if that would make any difference to his standing if we somehow were able to take it into account?
The numbers are broken down into run plays and pass plays, and the pass play yardage is specifically on passes that were targeted for the corner in question. I don’t know if that helps any.
Again, it’s kind of besides the point to argue over just how good Revis may or may not be. The real issue is getting a feel for the dynamic of the defense and how offenses are likely to attack it. Last year Revis was targeted 77 times, while the combination of Lowery and Law were targeted in the neighborhood of 116 times. This year the pass defense isn’t going to rise or fall on Revis, but on how the #2 and #3 corners hold up.
Seanmac,
I wont argue with you on the pass rush. The fact remains that I dont believe the Jets were a top 16 pass rushing team. Like all other statistics, FO formulas are flawed in some capacity. There is no sense in arguing this, I am simply stating my opinion.
Your points on the Raiders and Asomuga arent related to the topic only because I agree that he is an unbelievable player, by the far the best corner in the league, and an overall better player than Revis. But he’s an exception, and I think Revis is better than all the other corners you named.
You reiterated my point by saying “Corner play is too dependant on factors around the player in question” And my point is, FO does not account for these factors. So how can you say those players had better seasons based solely on FO’s formulas?
So if you dont think Revis is a top 10 corner, who is better? Why? Is he a top 15 corner? Do you have access to stats on TD’s allowed by corners? How does Revis stack up? To the best of my knwledge, hes given up 3 TD’s in 32 games.
And how are those stats compiled? What is the definition of “targeted” in context to these stats? Does it include when players are in coverages other than man? If a corner is 10 yards off the line of scrimmage and the WR he is covering catches a quick screen why should that count against the corner?
Revis is my favorite player and I watch him closely every game, and thanks to DVR, multiple times. And i recall watching many games where he was barely thrown at 2 or 3 times, so I find 77 “targets” difficult to believe.
Giving up touchdowns isn’t a particularly good way to judge corners, as it is highly dependent on context. Yardage allowed is much more telling. (The same goes for offensive players, as an overemphasis on touchdowns leads to a fantasy football view of the league.)
To answer your question, I would say that corner is a position that it doesn’t make a ton of sense to look at in a vacuum. I would say that those other players put up equal or better seasons within the context of their defenses than Revis did within the context of his. If you want to say that Sheldon Brown and Assante Samuel had a better pass rush in front of them and therefore Revis should be bumped up however much while the other players should be downgraded however much, then you’re welcome to do so.
Because that would be Revis’ man and his responsibility. (And in that scheme, he’s supposed to allow the catch and then come up and make the tackle for a short gain. If he does so, his Adjusted Yardage and Success % numbers will reflect it.) Targeted incorporates every instance where a pass is thrown and Revis is the closest defender.
Well if thats the case then you are confirming my point. The Jets played a soft coverageway too much last year which had Revis and the other corners playing too far off the line of scrimmage, which led to more targets and catches allowed by Revis. But that doesnt mean any of those corners played better than him in man coverage. My point is, when Revis is playing man coverage I dont believe there are more than 2 or 3 corners in the league better than him, and from watching games closely, several times, I saw him rarely get thrown at, and while playing man coverage barely 2 or 3 times a game. Is that possible?
And I disagree about the TD’s. Of course it should matter how many TDs a corner gives up. Do you have stat for TD’s allowed by corners? Im just curious to see them
And when I say man coverage im talking about when the corner isnt 10 yrds off the receiver as well.
KC Joyner tracks that stat; we think it’s unimportant. Touchdowns allowed, much like touchdowns scored, are heavily dependent on context. A corner who gives up five straight completions for 95 yards but then doesn’t give up an actual touchdown hasn’t done a very good job, whereas a corner who routinely shuts his man down yardage wise but is beaten in the end zone a few times after the defense has been stuck with a short field hasn’t necessarily played badly. Touchdowns allowed are way too context sensitive to mean much for a position like corner.
Revis may well be very talented at man coverage, but that’s not all a corner is asked to do. And he doesn’t always have to deny the catch for him to be effective. The entire idea behind the Success Rate is to see how often Revis is winning the battle. Giving up a hitch and tackling the receiver for a six yard gain is a win for Revis on 3rd and 8. It’s a loss for him on 1st and 10 or 2nd and 7. If it was entirely a function of soft playcalling as you suggest, than Revis’ success rate will go up next year. Baltimore’s corners generally had higher success rates- 49% for Ivy, but 56% for Fabian Washington, 57% for Frank Walker and 64% for Samari Rolle, and all that done with a pass rush that was statistically inferior the the Jets’ one (Jets fans might be a little surprised to hear that, but it’s true). On the other hand, all of those corners save Rolle gave up nearly a yard more per pass than Revis, so they were playing more of an all or nothing style defense. (Rolle averaged only 4.5 yards a reception, which was second-best in the league, while his 64% success rate was 6th best.)
Anyway, we’ll see. If Revis is as good as you are suggesting, he should be able to match Rolle’s numbers, seeing as he’ll be utilized in much the same way. But Revis probably won’t.
Basically my point is any numbers system your using to rank these corners is flawed in so many aspects that its not fair to use that as the end all be all judgment. I tried asking you several times for your own opinion, but your clearly in love with the numbers. The success rate stat doesnt account for several important factors and therefor is way too flawed. How can Rolle be better than Revis? That is absurd. Youre talking about a guy who wasn’t re-signed, and a guy who nobody wanted to sign, so hes clearly not that good. The only way to judge these things is by watching the games, and from watching Jets games I know that Revis was impossible to throw at unless he was in soft zone coverage.
And I will say again, of course TD’s allowed matters. If a CB gives up 95 receiving yards but allows no TD’s as you said before, then you’re right, the TD’s allowed is meaningless. But when did Revis ever vep 95 receiving yards? Has the guy ever given up 100 yards to a receiver? TD’s allowed does matter when your not only allowing VERY few Td’s, but also allowing VERY few receiving yards
But I’m not trying to rank the corners, Jesus. The numbers aren’t there to spit out arbitrary rankings but to give you as much information as possible about not only how individuals performed but what the team concept was like. Rolle is 33 and was only involved in a limited number of plays last year, but was very effective in his limited duty. Teams don’t generally sign 34-year-old corners (who in any event don’t generally play as well as they did in the past), and I’m in no way suggesting that Rolle is a better cover corner than Revis.
I’ve said repeatedly that Revis has the skills to be a very good corner. I’ve also said that his actual impact last season was less than, say, Corey Webster. Webster was targeted 69 times, had a successful result on 62% of those throws, gave up 5.4 yards per throw and defended 25 passes while picking off three. Was it a function of the pass rush? Of the scheme? Did the Giants spend their time playing tight man coverage while the Jets insisted on playing Revis off? It doesn’t really matter. Webster was a more effective piece of the overall defensive structure than Revis was.
You keep on asking me for a list or a ranking of some sort, and I’m not trying to evade the question. I just think that the idea of ranking corners is kind of silly, and that the distinctions between players isn’t worth haggling over. What I would say is this- cornerbacks (like many positions, actually) should be given a letter grade. Asomuga gets an A+. There are a good 15-20 guys who get an A or an A-, and they are more or less interchangable in terms of the impact they provide for a defense. You can take Assante Samuel and Antoine Winfield and Darrelle Revis and Corey Webster and Courtland Finnegan and Chris Gamble and switch them all around and you aren’t going to get a significant change in the performance of your defense, because the corner position is so heavily dependent on the parts around it and the scheme. It’s frankly a red herring to go off and worry about whether Revis is an A or an A-. The problem is that the Jets have an A/A- on one side and a C/C- on the other, with a C- in nickel. That’s where the defense is going to have to make its improvement. It makes no difference whatsoever whether Revis is the third best corner in the league or the 10th. The way offenses attack the defense will be the same.
I repect your opinions, I just happen to disagree here, thats all. I’ll leave it at that.
But remember, when Revis is a hall of famer and finishes his career as one of the best corners of all time, don’t forget about what I said.
Fair enough. Let’s hope it turns out just as you say.