The Final Countdown: Running Back(s)
On the verge of camp, and we’re counting it down …
Position: Running Back
Player: Thomas Jones / Leon Washington
Summary:
In 2008, the Jets had an effective, albeit underused running game. With Brett Favre leading the offense, that was almost certainly going to be the case, but there were many times when clear running downs were passes. Thomas Jones ran his way to the lead rusher in the AFC, but only because other players in the conference dealt with injuries and the like. In any other year, Jones’ efforts would have netted him a top five finish, but not conference leader status.
As far as Leon, he was woefully underused in the 2008 running game, although he was extremely effective when he did tote the rock. In 2009, Leon will relinquish punt duties to Jim Leonhard, which give the RB more a chance to get involved earlier in the team’s drives.
There’s going to be other actors in the play, but in the first act, Thomas and Leon are the leading men on this team. Look for Shonn Greene and potentially Jehuu Caulcrick to press for carries as the season wears on.
Moving Forward:
Last year the Ravens ran the ball on average 37 times a game, while the Jets were around 26 times. With an inexperienced QB in either Clemens or Sanchez, this team is going to run the ball a lot more this year than they did last … to the tune of at least 5-8 carries more a game.
This could well be Thomas Jones’ last season with the Jets. Shonn Greene is the heir apparent as the team’s hard-nosed runner with some wiggle. With a lead running back who will be 31 entering the 2009 season, it’s hard to know just how much the team will rely on Jones as a the first option this year. It all comes down to how effective Greene can be in two areas (1) in the receiving game, an area where Greene has already admitted he needs a lot of help and (2) pass protection. Watch Greene’s skills in camp and the preseason … it will be a big indicator to what his 2009 season will look like. Thomas Jones might have some extra tread on his tires due to light use earlier in his career, an extremely disciplined workout regimen, and a solid line in front of him. Still to rely on him as a 25-30 carry a game player seems like a mistake.
Questions:
How effective can Jones be this season? Can he keep his average yards per carry close to his numbers of last season? How many carries a game will Jones see?
17 Responses to The Final Countdown: Running Back(s)
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neauone says:
I agree with Brad, but I would like to see L.W. get some short throws his way, use him as an all purpose back. In fact I wouldn’t mind seeing a three back formation with S.G. leading the charge on some plays. Especially with the O.L. we possess. This can be a punishing group of R.B.’s Green and Jones could pound the D while L.W. zig zags his way to another pro bowl.
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RKNYC says:
For what it’s worth, it doesn’t matter if Green doesn’t catch well because we don’t use TJ in that capacity anyway.
I can’t imagine War Machine be significantly less capable than TJ Guns.
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hank/naples says:
Any way you slice it, we can not be a one dimensional team on offense, it just doean’t work in the NFL. TJ is going to be needed if we are going to make any, ANY noise this year and taken seroiusly.
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Harlan Lachman says:
Does anyone besides me get furious remembering all the third down and short sets without a RB behind Favre, removing all doubt that we were going to pass and removing even the threat of a running game?
I don’t see how Favre was responsible for that; which is why I question how effective any offense led by lill Shott is likely to be.
Also, because as a Jet fan I am ever hopeful, I expect us to run a lot less than Baltimore, at least for the first six games. Teams will gang up on the run challenging either of our Qb to pass. If our HC and OC are not morons, they will oblige. There is nothing dumber than running against a stacked box when one can throw on first or second down against a D stacked against the run. I can see some aggravating runs on third and long. But I can see some passes on first down offsetting them.
If we do run as much as folks think, I expect bad things, dull games, a losing record, and a fired OC who does not become a HC next year.
h
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Dknyj says:
Harlan – AGREED ON THE 5WR!! Why wouldn’t you just throw Leon back there just to make the defense think/prepare for it? You might as well give the opposing D-Line a free pass to go all out.
Also – it would be nice to have someone available to pick up a blitzer, no? -
vajet says:
i really dont understand all this continuing talk of it being risky to use tj to his full potential. he has been very durable during his career, esp. in the last two seasons with us. he’s in excellent physical shape and is a dedicated teammate. i would actually suggest using him more early to establish consistency in the run game, and utilize leon to exploit tired defenses during third downs and the second q’s of each half. greene should be used to spell tj – va’s finest =)
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Bent says: Even if they do go to a 5WR set this year, at least with Clemens and Sanchez at QB, there’s a minor threat of a QB keeper. That’s not to say I think they should do it, just pointing out how it was even dumber to do it last year with the old man back there.
TJ is most effective at around 20 touches, according to analysis carried out when we got him. I don’t think that’s changed. Long enough to get him going, not too long that he wears down.
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I know I have mentioned this before but am I the only fan who is worried that Leon getting ALOT more touches could eliminate his explosivness??
I know he was not used correctly last year by B-Schott but he has to be a chnage of pace guy. A guy like TJ or even S Greene has got to carry the load and then have Leon shock the defense with his speed.
Leon at 10 touches a game (rushes/catches) plus he KO is perfect for what he does. TJ and Greene banged out the other 20-25 carries.
Remember Leon has NEVER carried the load at any level.
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I do remember Favre having a keeper/screen and I know he blocked on a few sweeps/screens. When he ran with the ball it was painful to watch. He’d lose a race against a 3-toed tree sloth.
He definitely gave his all though that is without question.
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Bent says:
RK – I think any other Jet QB other than O’Brien would have scored on that bootleg play…even Vinny and Namath towards the end of their careers!
Drew – no, plenty of people have mentioned it. In 2006, he had basically the same number of touches as last year, but Miller was the KR, so more of his touches were on offense. He had almost exactly twice as many carries as last year. His average was lower, but still pretty healthy – well over 4ypc. He even had a few 100 yard games. However, there were one or two games where he could get nothing going. The line was a little worse back then though. (Kendall, Clement & the other 3 then < Faneca, Woody & the other three now).
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miketaliaferro says:
Good post, Bassett. But your line on TJ best sums up the whole Jets RB story, I believe:
“…light use earlier in his career, an extremely disciplined workout regimen, and a solid line in front of him…”
If he’s been drinking whatever Tony Richardson has been drinking, TJ’s not going anywhere.
Can we now put to rest all the “Jones Is Done” nonsense we’ve been patiently reading all winter? This silliness has caught on with the same unproven power a silly, unfounded Matt Drudge report gets circulated. Someone repeats it, and suddenly it’s fact.
Nonsense.
Unless and until anyone can prove severe drop-off by Jones over the span of any given season, let’s please give this concept a rest. For the reasons you state, Bassett, I believe TJ stands to be just as effective this year as in any other. He is innocent of the crime of age until proven guilty.
With many backs, you can see the output trail off in the same manner that Favre and Jenkins both clearly and visibly faded last year. Be it age, dings, poor conditioning or injury — with most players, it’s clearly visible — not as quick, not as fast, slower reads, hits the hole a split second late, etc. Unless anyone can point to clear anecdotal evidence or clearly targeted geeky stats that prove that Jones wore down and faded during a season, let’s now lay off of the “Jones is 31, so he’s done” meme.
This is the PR rationale the FO is using to screw him out of the $7 million they still owe him on his current contract. If they had the numbers that said he’s declining, they certainly would have been floating those all winter and spring. But they don’t. So, they start every conversation with “Hey! Did you know TJ is an old fart of 31? Whatever will we do!! He’s about to keel over ANY DAY NOW!!!”
But TJ simply goes out and frustrates the FO by not doing so, and simply doing his job at a high level. Plus, the FO has stupidly lowered TJ’s trade value with all these knocks and innuendos — so they’re stuck with him, even though they clearly do not want him anymore. No wonder Tanny’s pissed at him.
Rest assured, as with every RB, we’ll be able to see age catch up with TJ if / when it happens. Rest assured also, that Ryan will see it long before we do, and deal with it probably even before we catch on.
But until then, TJ is our feature back and I wish him all great success.
Long may he run.
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Bent says:
Well, he did drop off at the end of the year, but hopefully that was more a product of the fact that the whole team went south. You can’t start advancing money you aren’t contractually obliged to pay him in the hope that he won’t “drop off” when there are many examples of RBs that age that did…especially when they’ve already committed a ton of money to next year and there may yet be a cap.
“This is the PR rationale the FO is using to screw him out of the $7 million they still owe him on his current contract. ”
They don’t really owe him it. The only thing you owe a guy when you sign him is the guaranteed money. The non-guaranteed salary is only due if you’re still on the team and that is implicitly stated in the contract language and NFL salary cap rules. Maybe I am arguing over semantics, but I don’t think they are trying to “screw him”. All they’re saying is that guys his age are often not worth that kind of money, so why shouldn’t they wait until next year and make sure he’s still serviceable before they advance him any of that money? – but if they can replace his production with someone cheaper they can and will do – and would be remiss not to.
Again, Drew Rosenhaus is one of the most experienced agents out there. You think he didn’t see this coming? Well, why did he let his client sign the deal then? In fact, he had lobbied for the deal to be structured that way (no other Jets veteran has a contract structured like this), knowing full well that if TJ played well in year two, even if he didn’t play well in year one (and he didn’t), he’d be in a position to play hardball with the Jets because of his low salary in year three (and knowing that he’d stand to make a cut of any new deal at that time).
He just wasn’t counting on the Jets front office and fans being so cap savvy.
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john r says:
while i like leon as a secondary back, he has yet to show he can run up the middle, this is the reasoning why i wouldnt give him a ton of money bc his size seem not to let him do this
tj will be fine this year bc greene can take some of his carriers, but i dont think leon needs more than 10 touches in a game. unless we are going with the wild cat
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Pdubbs says:
I would love to see all of our RB’s contribute. I also think that the cure for 8 men in the box is Dustin Keller. So long as any of our QB’s can throw the ball to DK….our running game will be lethal.
It’s not smart to make Leon an every down back but does anybody else think he could be our B.Westbrook ? similar size and skils no ?
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Regardless of his season, I expect TJ to be cut before his bonus payment is due.
Perhaps, if my sense of the market for aging RB is correct, he will then resign here for less money than called for in his contract and get another year or two. It will be a lot more likely if we win and Shonn Greene does OK.
But I don’t see another team guaranteeing $7 – $10 mil for another year or two.
harlan
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StvDoe says:
mike,
Where do you get the idea that the FO is floating rumors that TJ is done? Have you made this up out of thin air. I’ve never seen such allegations.
As Bent stated we’ve absolutely no reason to give TJ more money this season. We don’t “owe” it to him in any sense of the word.
I expect him to play his ass off this season in hopes of getting paid one more time after the Jets cut him. Perhaps even back here as Harlan posited.
I will let Jones carry the ball 12-15X/game, Leon 10-12X/game, and Greene 5-10X/game. The team should be running the ball between 27-37X/game! This will allow for all our RB to stay fresh, especially TJ and LW. Staying fresh should allow them to run hard everytime. Can their average stay up like last year; well that depends if defenses will respect our QB’s and not stack 8 men in the box just about everytime. Thats my pessimistic fear, teams stacking the box, taking our running game away. I am hopeful that either QB will be able to make teams pay if they do this.