The QB Battle Thus Far
So with the Jets camp now in it’s seventh day, how will the traing camp battle at QB play out? Let’s take a look …
Kellen Clemens
Current First-Teamer
Fourth Year in Offense
So Far: Camp has been up and down for Clemens. While he’s shown command of the offense, finding the open man downfield and improvising when required, he’s also had some struggles with throwing interceptions especially in the red zone.
Why Him: He knows the offense better and has better abilities right now to find open men deeper down the field than Sanchez. If the team is going to run the ball a lot, throwing deep is going to have to be a major part in this offense. The Jets have been scouring the waiver wire with pickups like Aundrae Allison, Mario Urrutia and such to find a player who can get behind a secondary and cause issues. Clemens has shown some swagger in the last few days … can he keep it up?
Why Not: The turnovers are killer. If Mangini preached ball control strongly, Rex probably does equally, but seems more comfortable doing so by keeping it on the ground. If Clemens is going to throw picks
Mark Sanchez
Current Second-Teamer
First Year in Offense
So Far: Sanchez has played it safe, and has done what’s expected of most rookies. Sanchez has tucked the ball and ran a few times when he clearly shouldn’t have (via Bart Scott’s advice) and he’s been throwing a lot to his checkdowns rather than airing it out.
Why Him: Because he’s the inevitable future. When asked this offseason, Peyton Manning said that although starting his first year was tough, he got through it and made his second year that much better.
Why Not: Still there’s a lot of veterans on this team that want to be competitive this year and have said so. If Sanchez isn’t up for the task of keeping this team competitive for the playoffs, or worse the Jets start him early only to pull him halfway through the season, that could be worse from a PR standpoint and for Sanchez’s confidence in the long-run.
I’d prefer to see Sanchez hold the clipboard for a little while and learn the ropes rather than the starter on Day 1. If Clemens fails, Sanchez can always be inserted into the lineup, but if Sanchez struggles, it would be unfortunate to be forced to bench the Jets shiney new toy. Also, I would like to see what the Jets have in Clemens before losing him to free agency at the end of this season.
If Sanchez looks better in preseason then we should start him. Peyton and Troy had HORRIBLE first years but look how they turned out.(not saying sanchez is gonna be as good/better than peyton manning or troy aikman,but WHO knows?)
It seems simple Mark is playing it Safe and Clemens is throwing picks….BUT Kellen is driving the offense better so who knows.
Good article I just wanted to pass along:
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/steelers/s_636795.html
The best thing would be to let Clemens start the season, inevitably Clemens will flop, and then we can put in Sanchez. I can’t imagine Sanchez being ready for the first game.
The fact that Clemens hasn’t blown Sanchez out of the water does not bode well for Clemens. Considering that Clemens knows the offense already..or he should! But Sanchez has primarily worked against the 2nd team defense so we really need to see him in there against the 1s to see what’s the deal.
Also, I’m surprised to read somewhere that Sanchez has a stronger arm that Clemens? When Kellen was drafted he was known as a strong arm QB, althought maybe that was just in comparison to Pennington. Also, one knock on Sanchez coming out of college was he didn’t have a rocket arm..Not sure where the truth lies, but I do believe both guys have NFL starting caliber arms so it’s not really a big deal.
Ramble,
I don’t see why Kellen will “inevitably flop”. He really didn’t play as poorly as everyone is acting when he started. Bear in mind he was an inexperienced QB playing behind the leagues worst line, with a bad running game and terrible receivers.
He deserves a shot with his new, clearly superior supporting cast.
I liken it to the Vilma situation. We bailed on him after him playing a year behind a garbage NT, when the team as a whole hadn’t really adjusted to the switch from 4-3 to 3-4. We should have kept Vilma, given him a shot with Jenkins in front of him and Harris along side and seen how he played.
You can’t judge players who are in TERRIBLE situations. Just look at Randy Moss in Oakland.
Peyton threw for 3700 yards and 26 touchdowns as a rookie on a team that had four playoff teams in its division. HORRIBLE overstates matters.
3 weeks goes pretty fast. I would be suprised if Sanchez gains alot on Kellen in that time. Rex will know what the deal is by the preseason Ginats game.
I have hope Sanchez can close the deal but it looks like the 1st 4 games of the regular season are the chance KC will have to keep his job. Anything worse than 2-2 and he is out and the Sanchez era begins
Why wait until Clemens inevitably flops? Its going to be a PR nightmare to have Sanchez sit and then go in when Clemens inevitably flops. Way worse than the PR nightmare if Sanchez were to struggle his rookie season and then we need to put Clemens in. We might as well have the leeway of blaming his inexperience rather than having the fans, media, and ownership question the decision to start a 4 year vet who has never made it as a starter, isn’t even a guy drafted by the new “administration”, and is essentially as average a QB as they come. I think more than ever PR is of utmost importance for the Jets. To have a letdown because Kellen Clemens is losing games for us (after all the excitement this year, the new stadium next year, and a group of really talented players already around him) would be really really really bad. Id rather take my chances with Sanchez, at least knowing that hes developing. The Clemens learning curve is over, he is not a rookie. If hes still throwing picks in practice, than what is he gonna do in games? He’s average… that’s it. We can’t afford average right now, we at least need potential and room for group (which we will have with Sanchez).
Nice job on the breakdown. I think Clemens is clearly ahead if you just take this as an even competition. If you take it as a competition where the position is going to be a complete caretaker spot it is probably much closer since the Jets would rather get the rookie reps if the QB play looks to be so bad that they have to just abandon the pass.
I like your point on the vets. I think that is often an overriding factor in starting the older player, even if he may stink, to keep them on board. Nothing undermines a coach more than veteran players feeling that they are being asked to sacrifice a season to let the young guy learn the ropes. Thats a major reason why it has been so hard for the Jets to move on with the QBs, whether it be Mirer over Lucas, Vinny over Chad, Vinny over Bollinger, and Chad over Clemens. Clemens is probably the worst of the bunch so benching him in favor of the rook may be an easier sell to the team, but still its a tough sell.
Regarding the comment from Peyton Manning this team is much different than the team he was darfted too. Other than the QB position the Jets roster is definitely playoff caliber as we saw last year going 9-3. I think the defense will be improved this year with Rex’s scheme which will make this team poised to have a deep run in the playoffs.
How is letting Sanchez start the season on the bench a PR nightmare? Most Jet fans love Rex Ryan and if he picks Clemens to start the season most fans will give him the benefit of the doubt, even if they disagree. Now if Clemens stinks it up, and Ryan leaves him out there, then that would be a PR nightmare, but I can’t see Ryan doing that. SO there are 2 scenarios with Clemens starting: 1- he does well, and everyone is happy (By well I mean the Jets are .500 or above). or 2- he plays poorly and gets replaced in game 5 by Sanchez.
No PR nightmares to be found.
The only PR problem with starting Clemens comes if it turns out like during Eli Manning’s first year, when they benched Warner despite him having a winning record (5-4), then Eli struggled and went 1-6 the rest of the way.
We know now that it turned out okay for the Giants, but I seem to remember a lot of grumbling (from the fans and the players) when they made the move.
Why are we all in such a rush to start Sanchez. I know he’s the sexier pick, but Clemens knows the offense and was a decent prospect coming out of college who has never been given a fair chance.
Let the veteran start the season while the rookie learns for a little while.
My whole post explained how and why it would be a PR nightmare… especially if he starts on then has to go in when Clemens stinks it up (at which point we will already have several losses at a team and need then basically throw the season away as a rookie is called in to help save the season). But in regards to your scenarios, why not be equally as arbitrary and throw the following scenarios with Sanchez starting 1- he does well, and everyone is happy (By well I mean the Jets are .500 or above). or 2- he plays poorly and gets replaced in game 5 by Clemens (an understandable move considering he is a rookie and might need more time to develop). Sure its possible that Clemens could have a Pro Bowl year, and its possible he wins a Super Bowl but there is nothing to show that he is capable or on that path. If Sanchez. is the future…why not go with your future now? Our past has been pretty awful and gut wrenching.
Does anyone else think that Jets Management doesn’t want a Quinn/Anderson problem on their hands? I mean, if KC starts and does really well at QB for the first half of the season (I mean decisively moves the chains, few INT’s and a 5-3 record) then that’s where they are. That situation, while great in the short term, has done no good for stability at the position. They have two relatively high paid players at one position, which hurts them in other cap-related areas.
I think all management involved wants to give it to Sanchez and sink/swim with the decision. IMHO
MSM, different QB’s develop differently. Some QB’s benefit from sitting and learning. Some can play right away, but they are in the minority. How do you think Tom Brady would’ve done if he started his first year? He would’ve failed miserably. So, my point is there is nothing wrong with letting a rookie sit. There is so much to be learned about playing QB in the NFL, in NY, that alot can be gained from holding the clipboard. On the other hand, starting as rookie in NY could end up hurting you. You play poorly, and the fans start to get on you. Or worse, because of your inexperience you end up getting hurt. Maybe you are to aggressive and scramble for a first down and dive for it. That’s what Sanchez has been doing in practice. Eli sat for a while, do you like his progress? Do you think if Eli started sooner, the giants would’ve won the SB sooner?
Question: What will be the breakdown for reps in the 1st preseason game? Usually it is the starter for 1 maybe 2 series then the 2nd , 3rd, and 4th , etc.. stringers play a quarter each. I just wonder how this will work with our qb’s this year.
Sanchez did not play in many games in college, and the QB cupboard isn’t totally bare. We have no reason to rush Sanchez.
If he wins the competition outright, by all means start him. If he does not, give the kid time to get used to the NFL game.
Pete57, I agree with you but how do you know how Sanchez is going to develop? The fact that this is even a competition and its pretty tight means to me that he is developing well and quickly. Your example of him diving he did once in practice, learned from it, and wont do it again… it was out of enthusiasm anyway… We need to go by what we already know when it comes to Clemens vs. Sanchez… and what we know about Clemens, weve known for years now.
Eli won because he had Plax, a good offensive line, a nasty defense, and a nasty running game. He won extremely early in his career and regardless, he wasn’t going to win until the team around him got to the point they got to. If you want to bring Eli into this conversation, id argue that Mark Sanchez could have a very similar career if not better (or quicker) because of the pieces around him. We have pro bowlers on offense and defense already in place. We have one of the best O-lines, we should have a nasty defense this year, we have a nasty running game. The only thing we lack is a Plax (which is huge and a different conversation… one which weve all had before… unfortunately). Nevertheless, we are close and I believe Sanchez can pull an Eli… or even better, a Rothlisberger. Depth is obviously an issue but id rather not play the what if game and just go by what we know.
The only issue is whether Sanchez is ready to make the team competitive. If the answer is “yes”, then he starts regardless of what KC is doing. If the answer is “no”, then he sits (only until the answer turns to “yes”). What is the logic for any other scenario? KC is a FA at the end of the season and will not be resigned. Sanchez is the future and the future starts as soon as he is ready for it. The coaches will decide if that’s week 1 or sometime after.
No one has talked about the #3 job. In my opinion, the Jets will bring in a veteran before the season. KC has 8 starts, Sanchez has 0. They need a veteran on the roster just in case.
Isn’t this the final year of KC’s contract? If you don’t play him, let him go at the end of the season what happens if he becomes everything guys on this blog were writing about this time last season? Then we blast Tanny for letting CP and KC go and we’re left with MS and EA.
If MS is the next Elway OK we have our man, if he’s not and we have two former QB’s starting for other teams it’s a FO nightmare for the next 2-3 years. Tanny is between a rock and a hard place unless MS walks on water.
Davo – I wouldnt call Clemens a “highly paid player”
I’m so tired of hearing from people that, “we know what we have in Clemens.”
Clearly, the fans and the FO have given up on Clemens without ever really giving him a shot. Maybe they don’t like what they’ve seen in practice, but no one can say that Clemens has been given a chance to start games.
I fully agree that his 2007 stats as a starter were mediocre, but they were his first career starts and he couldn’t have been put into a worse situation. No o-line, no running game and little help from WR’s. Meanwhile, he was a McDroppins reception away from being .500 in those 8 games with all of the foregoing factors stacked against him.
If the Jets don’t play Clemens now, they will simply lose him to free agency without ever determining whether he can play.
I’m saying it again….Let the rookie hold the clipboard for a little while. Sanchez should learn the ropes from the sideline.
R – Yeah, similar situation to Cutler’s first season.
James in TN – I reckon Clemens and Sanchez will split the first 3 quarters then Ainge will get the fourth. Maybe they’ll mix it up so that both get a chance to go against starters. Then in the last game, Ainge and Pizzotti will probably share the whole game, since Rex has said he’ll have decided on the starter by then.
zenlaw – Yeah, I didn’t think Clemens was ready when he played in his second season (remember Pennington didn’t play until halfway through his third season). Maybe he will be ready this time and will perform better…whether that will be good enough, I don’t know.
Doug in LV – KC is in the same boat as Leon. If there’s no CBA, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent next year. If they do agree one his contract will expire and, unless he has a monster year and the Jets franchise him, that will probably be that.
Yes, sorry Jesus – I was referring to the Browns situation, where they essentially had to sign Anderson to pretty big money (well, relatively, 6 mill or so) the year after his breakout year. They just couldn’t justify handing the reins off to an unproven player with no starts.
It’s been clear for two years that the FO has no faith in KC. Last year they traded for Favre. This year they moved up for Sanchez. If you think KC has franchise potential you do neither of these things. KC’s Jet future is clearly as a clipboard holder, or gone.
There’s no point in forestalling the inevitable. Unless he flat out sucks in the preseason, Sanchez starts.
the colts sucked when peyton started that year
the jets can make a playoff run with the d and running game. so its about winning now and not about winning next year
thats why kc has to start
i saw yesterday people talkin about the brees/ rivers battle from a few years past. if we look back, brees should have stayed bc he’s much better than rivers
also kc is no drew brees
Devil’s advocate: What if the defense and running game are so good that the Jets are in contention for the playoffs or even the division? Wouldn’t you want the guy that gives them the best chance to win now, even if only slightly?
Totally different situation, but look at the 2006 Bears. Even average play from their QB in the superbowl and they probably win it. They didn’t have a better option, but I’m sure if they did, they would have used it, regardless of who was earning the most money or most likely to start in future.
Maybe it benefitted them in the long run, but wouldn’t Giants and Broncos fans have preferred to be in the playoffs rather than see their rookies struggle over the second half?
The best thing for the Jets would be for Sanchez to overtake KC, otherwise whatever they do is going to be second guessed all year. If he doesn’t, they have a tough decision and I’m glad I’m not the one who has to make it.
Don’t forget Brees was coming off a shoulder injury, which may have factored into SD’s decision. The Jets QB gets a shoulder problem and it blights the rest of his Jets career…the Saints get a QB with a shoulder problem and he throws for 5,000 yards like it never happened…
I would play this devil’s advocate- what if the defense isn’t much better than last year, when it was below average, and what if the running game is worse, as is likely? Which quarterback is in better position to actually execute the offense, and to compensate for one of the worst sets of receivers in the league? My guess would be Clemens.
In any event, I think the quarterback competition is being incorrectly portrayed here. It’s not like both players are playing well. Sanchez, from all reports, is playing quite badly. Clemens is playing okay, but is throwing a ton of interceptions. We’re not choosing between Philip Rivers and Drew Brees here. We’re choosing between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith. No matter which player starts, the Jets will have one of the worst passing attacks in the league, so focusing too heavily on who is pulling the trigger is kind of besides the point.
(And Brees, while terrific, isn’t any better than Philip Rivers. Rivers has a good chance to be the NFL MVP this season.)
Yeah, I wasn’t making a prediction, just trying to look at it from a different angle. Your “different angle” works just as well.
“No matter which player starts, the Jets will have one of the worst passing attacks in the league, so focusing too heavily on who is pulling the trigger is kind of besides the point.”
See, it’s comments like this that get everyone all over-excited and cause you to have to write 500 word posts to defend the FO metrics.
You couldn’t have thrown a “probably” in there?
Thanks for the info Bent, I hope Pizotti beats out Ainge.
Go Jets!!!!
i have a couple of questions for the blog
unless MS is destined to be a hall of famer/MVP, no matter when he starts, wouldnt you want a guy who only start 16 games in college (no matter how well he played) to be brought along slowly?
does anyone else see this “competition” as much a true QB competition as a way to light a fire under KC seat?
we can all agree this is KC’s last chance as a Jet.
“Probably.” :-)
96deb – that’s s good point. I see a lot of potential downside to throwing sanchez in there and very little downside to having him ride pine for a half to full season. It just makes so much more sense to let an underclassman who started only 16 games to watch and learn, not crash and burn. Sure, he might not crash and burn, but the odds are stacked against him.
Bassett. Your final assessment of the Sanchez situation has to be one of the most ridiculous statements I have EVER read on this blog and I am a daily reader.
“If Sanchez isn’t up for the task of keeping this team competitive for the playoffs, or worse the Jets start him early only to pull him halfway through the season, that could be worse from a PR standpoint and for Sanchez’s confidence in the long-run.”
Are you kidding? There is no way that Sanchez gets pulled from the field for about 2 years once he gets to start. At that point it would be an indication that they made an error in picking him.
Best case scenerio in my mind? Clemens starts…unless Sanchez proves that he is clearly better. Turnovers are the key.
We still need a wide out.
Clemens is throwing interceptions in practice? In 2000 Testaverde threw 25 INT’s and last year Farve threw 22 INT’s. He has to go a long way to top that. I’d like to see him get one last shot. I think guys like Kyle Boller and Tavarious Jackson got way too many chances. He at least deserves one more try, with our receivers I’m afraid neither of them will get good numbers. We are going to look like ARMY this year.
Tom, you’ve got to think about and plan for all the outcomes no matter what the cause. These examples are completely different, but did you see Chad Pennington getting injured so early in 2007? Did you foresee Chad and Jay Fiedler going down in the same football game in 2005? Did you think that if Brett Favre was as injured as he made out, that the team would still play him?
I agree it’s a crazy notion to put Sanchez in and then pull him out, but the Jets wouldn’t be the first team to do this … Tavaris Jackson, Vince Young … the list goes on. To assume it’s a possibility is more prudent than assuming it never would be … it might be the wrong choice and I’d agree with you on that, but you have to look at all outcomes and if the past five seasons and QB play for the Jets haven’t proven that, I don’t know what else would.
“We’re not choosing between Philip Rivers and Drew Brees here. We’re choosing between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith. ”
Jeez Sean, thats the most sobering assessment I’ve seen yet!!!
IMO, too many fans are too willing to give KC a free pass for his putrid 2007. The only factor that indicates that Sanchez could be worse than KC is that he’s a rookie. But, why give KC his 9th NFL start over giving Sanchez his first. It’s more or less a myth that rookie QBs give teams less of a chance to win. So, there seems to be no downside to starting Sanchez unless he’s completely unready to play in the NFL. But, if that’s the case, then bring in a journeyman because KC can’t teach Sanchez anything. And, judging from today’s green and white scrimmage, Sanchez can play a little.
Having trouble understanding, other than just flat out “hope”, how MS has evolved as the next Rothlisberger or Ryan…How is this guaranteed? Not as highly regarded as Young and Leinart coming out, and look where they are. Rookie QBs don’t impact chance to win? Akili Smith, Couch, Leaf, Harrington, Schuler, Carr, Alex Smith–all high draft picks thrown into the fire before arguably ready and most in situations on horrible teams that offered no pass protection and few offensive weapons around them and failed miserably. If you could transport back in time, would MS look head’s above any of the QBs above before they ever took a snap in a NFL game? I think the hype would be remarkably the same. Clemens doesn’t suck. He may have struggled in 2007 but the Jets won games with him at helm. He’s tough, a leader, and has been a winner at every level–give him a chance to play on a decent team where he doesn’t have to run for his life and see where he stands.
RabidGreen,
Nothing is guaranteed, that obvious and not even worth questioning since we all know that on a rational level. But the comparison to Leinart and Young only shows me that Sanchez should arguably be more highly regarded than both of them. Lets be honest. Leinart had Reggie Bush (one of the most dynamic college football players ever) and better receivers than Sanchez did at USC. Young was good in college but had a great defense and also ran the ball A LOT (not the best pure pocket passer). I mean, in Sanchez, we are talking about a guy that has catapulted through the ranks. The 16 starts at the college level only goes to show you that hes THAT good… to the point where he was going to be a top 10 pick in the first round of the NFL draft no matter what. None of the QBs you mentioned have had that much hype after 16 starts. It does mean something… This guy has shown a tendency to develop a lot quicker and considering the fact that hes essentially “tied” with Clemens right now in the QB “competition” says hes about 3 years quicker than Clemens. Last year the team went out and traded for Favre because they had no faith in Clemens. NO ONE can convince me that after firing their coach, rebuilding the defense to be a lot better, spending all this money to improve our team, and jumping to get a rookie that Clemens all of a sudden is the solution. We are better than last year as a team… so if he wasn’t good enough then, hes not good enough now.
MSM I don’t think you can say it is “essentially tied.” Clemens is on the roster as #1 and he’s not “losing” yet to Sanchez so therefore not a tie.
I think that is just the perception of the fans. If Rex starts giving MS more 1st unit snaps…then it’s swung in his favor.
Bassett. I can see where your line of thought is on the QB’s who have been pulled. I just think that your reasoning may be off. Like you, I have had my guts pulled out so many times by the Jets QB’s that it seems like a cruel joke sometimes.
My first game at Shea as a Kid was a rain soaked affair started by Richard Todd…watching them defeat the hated Fins. I watched good and bad play from so many and I desperately want to see Sanchez succeed.
While the Jets wouldn’t be the first team to mess things up with a young QB and pull him, I do not believe for a minute they would be the next.
Jackson and Young are poor examples of what you are trying to illustrate in my mind. Jackson was benched in favor of Ferotte in his second full year as a starter. Young got replaced on an injury after two years of starting.
Once a young QB is benched, the road is clear and that road leads out the door. It is an indicator that he is no longer the future…and that decision usually comes a few years in. See: Jackson, Young and the 1999 draft.
Love this blog, love your articles…just think you missed the mark with that statement.
I can’t wait for the season to begin!
It’s no myth that rookie quarterbacks don’t give their teams as good a chance to win. Now it’s certainly true that there are instances where the rookie quarterback is still the best quarterback on the team, in which case there is no real reason not to play him- Matt Ryan was the best quarterback on the Falcons last year, Peyton Manning was the best quarterback on the Colts when he was drafted, and there was nothing to be gained by sitting them. On the other hand, usually playing the rookie over a decent veteran can absolutely sink the season, as the Giants saw with Eli Manning and the Broncos saw with Jake Plummer, and putting in a guy before he’s ready can result in absolutely catastrophic levels of awfulness without doing anything to develop the player, as in the case of Alex Smith and Jamarcus Russell.
(Really, if the Jets want to run this ball control, play action offense, the best thing they could do is go back in a time machine and go grab Chad Pennington, who would be perfect to run it. But that’s a gripe for another day.)
The situation is pretty simple, here. Kellen Clemens is not Kurt Warner and he’s not Jake Plummer. He’s roughly as unproven as Sanchez. It’s incumbent on him to beat out Sanchez. Clearly the team is giving him the opportunity by letting him get a majority of the snaps with the first team. If he doesn’t beat out Sanchez, then there’s not much to be gained by playing him. If he does beat out Sanchez, I don’t see any reason to sit him, because its not going to hurt Sanchez any to spend anywhere from 8 games to a year on the bench. There is some evidence, though not definitive, that playing Sanchez now will speed up his development, and if you buy that then you should favor playing Sanchez, as the Jets have zero chance of winning even the AFC East this year, barring another Tom Brady injury. But I don’t think the evidence is conclusive.
seanmac,
It IS a myth that a rookie QBs lessen a team’s chances of winning. In the NYT’s Fifth Down Blog, Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats set forth the statistical proof showing the myth:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/statistics-show-theres-no-harm-in-starting-a-rookie-quarterback/
Now, Football Outsiders may be a competitor, but respond to the stats, instead of making conclusory assertions.
Sean: I seem to recall you being a consistent critic of Pennington, arguing that his lack of arm strength hurt the team’s running and passing game. You also argued last year that Favre’s presence in lieu of Pennington was a major reason for the improved running game. You advocated that the Jets draft an early round replacement for Pennington every year going back to at least Cutler in 2006. So it’s surprising to see you griping about the Jets giving up Pennington.
It also seems to me that your predictions about the Jets offense ignore the effect of a good offensive line, which is surprising giving the general emphasis on line play at FO. Is there any precedent of a team with a top 10 (or even above average) OL being the worst offense in the league? You’ve said that the Jets will experience more injuries on the OL this year, which may be more likely than not but is far from a certainty (see, e.g., the Dallas extended health streak), but I’ve seen you make no argument that losing starters for a few games here and there will turn a good OL into a terrible one.
The Jets have a very good OL, good RBs, a good receiving TE, a good not great WR, an at least OK slot receiver (see Stuckey’s DVOA and catch rate last year), and unproven to mediocre talent at QB and other WR spots. I don’t see how that translates into the worst offense in the league. Realistic downside is Buffalo’s offense last year — bad but not truly terrible. And that was with an OL that couldn’t pass block, the lowest DVOA QB in the league making a quarter of their pass attempts (Edwards was mediocre the rest of the time), and a terrible TE. They managed to be better than 8 other teams with decent run blocking and one very good receiver. The Jets appear to have more talent than that this year. Realistic upside for the Jets offense this year is probably the Jets offense last year.
Led,
Also, the Jets OL improvement from 2007 to 2008 was based upon obtaining Faneca and Woody AND Callahan. Apparently, FO does not factor in the quality of OL coach. I would argue that the perceived lack of OL depth is speculative because we just don’t know how well Callahan has coached them up. Notice Sanchez’s praise of Robert Turner’s play in yesterday’s scrimmage. In Denver, for instance, the names changed (including QB and RB), but as long as Rick Dennison has been the OL coach, Denver’s OL has been a team strength. IMO, Callahan is that good.
And, of course, Dennison was an Alex Gibbs disciple and Gibbs is probably the greatest OL coach in NFL history.
Sack,
You seem to be misreading Burke’s article. Burke is saying that quarterbacks who start as rookies tend to develop into better players than quarterbacks who don’t start as rookies (or at the very least, don’t have their development stunted by the experience). He’s not saying anything about how starting a rookie quarterback affects the team he’s starting for.
Led,
I’ve always been a fan of Pennington, actually. I thought the team should look into alternatives, particularly when it looked like his career might be in jeopardy, but being prudent and summarily replacing a player are two different things. I spent all of 2007 pointing out that none of what was going on was Chad’s fault and that it was silly to replace him with Clemens, and I spent much of the offseason arguing that Pennington was not finished and that he would return to being an effective quarterback with the proper support. I was not surprised that he outplayed Favre last year, and frankly, unless he gets hurt, he’s going to outplay whoever we start at quarterback this year. But what’s done is done.
Anyway, to answer your question, yes there are instances of good offensive lines not doing anything to prevent an offense from being among the worst in the league. If you have the 32nd ranked passing attack, there isn’t much that running the football is going to do for you.
The Jets have very little shot at duplicating last year’s offense for several reasons. The first is that Favre, while not good, was likely much better than either Clemens or Sanchez will be. The offense is unlikely to stay as healthy as last year. The offense is unlikely to perform at such a high level in the red zone again, which will result in a fairly major drop-off in points produced.
Obviously, if you have the 32nd ranked passing attack, you’re not going to score points. But my point is that teams that can pass block as effectively as our front five do not have the 32nd ranked passing attack. You are undervaluing the role of line play in your analysis. These are still NFL skill position players, even if they are not pro-bowlers. (In fact, Washington and arguably Keller are pro-bowl quality receivers for their respective positions.) Clemens’ numbers are based on a season with Adrien Clark at LG and another loser whose name I forget at RT. Clemens played worse than Pennington, certainly, but then again Pennington (we agree) is a very good QB. With respect to your projections for Sanchez, most rookie QBs play on teams with terrible offensive lines. If you limit to rookies drafted by teams in the bottom half of the first round, I’m sure you’ll find that they have more success. The numbers are dragged down by all the rookies drafted in the top 5 or so that fail spectacularly on terrible teams. I’ve always had the impression in reading your comments at FO over the years and then your articles that you place too much emphasis on the QB and insufficient emphasis on the quality of the team around him. I think you’re doing the same here.
It’s important to step back and look at what we’re actually debating. I’m not saying the Jets offense is going to be top 10 or that either Clemens or Sanchez is going to be a good QB. I’m saying the offense has a reasonable chance to be slightly below average and is unlikely to be among the absolute worst. You are saying that there’s almost no chance the Jets offense could even be mediocre. That’s a lot of certainty based on very imperfect statistical analysis.
The loser whose name you forgot is Anthony Clement.
seanmac,
Fair enough, but Burke was also talking about QB performance and FO’s whole thesis is that Sanchez’s performance will result in the Jets having the worst offense in the NFL. That conclusion, along with the defense regressing from last year despite a talent infusion, make no sense. I guess we’ll see.
That’s an interesting comment. In this case, I think the basic issue is not that I am overemphasizing the quarterback position but that we have a more negative impression of the quality of the team that is supposedly going to support that quarterback. For instance, the offensive line. While the Jets offensive line was terrific at run blocking, they were in the bottom half of the league in pass protection. And they will in all probability sink lower next year, simply because quarterbacks are far more responsible for their sacks than most people realize, and the Jets will be replacing a veteran with two guys with extremely limited experience in the pocket (and, as sack might point out, less than ideal sight lines). Besides, the ALY numbers, like all our numbers, need to be understood as providing context, not a definitive answer to anything. The Colts line always was at the top of the rankings year after year, and they always got physically mauled in the playoffs. In reality, they weren’t elite run blockers, but teams always played pass first and were often spread out, making it easier to generate yardage. The Jets line performed at a high level within the context of their team makeup last year. This year, they are going to have fewer teams devoting resources to defending the passing game and will have to deal with teams loading up against the run. Their final numbers are unlikely to look as strong.
Sanchez’s terrible projection is independent of the quality of the offensive line. (It goes up a bit after bringing the line into the equation.) Basically, no quarterback with as few college starts as Sanchez has ever done anything but be terrible, and particularly out of the gate. He has so many fewer starts than your average quarterback prospect that it’s almost difficult to compare him to anyone, but all the nearest guys- Alex Smith, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller-were awful out of the gate (and generally awful thereafter). The exception is Aaron Rodgers, who sat for multiple seasons before stepping into the lineup.
Anyway, I don’t mean to suggest certainty in any of this. It’s entirely possible that the Jets can run the ball as well as Baltimore did last year (not great, but good enough), and that Sanchez can play within himself and do alright in an offense that asks him to do a very limited number of things. It’s also possible-probable, I think-that the defense will be better than we are projecting, provided they don’t have any injuries along the defensive line. Projections are really not there to be taken at face value, but rather to look at the trends and get a feel for the probabilities. There are a lot of factors that the Jets will have to overcome if they are going to even match last year’s performance. They will have to get an unusually good performance out of a rookie (or inexperienced) quarterback. Their receiving experience isn’t quite in the danger zone, but it’s pretty close, so they are going to have to get an unusually good performance out of their receivers. They are going to need to sustain their play in the red zone, despite the fact that teams that are better in the red zone than elsewhere tend to regress the following year. Their defense is going to have to improve more than defenses generally do when a new defensive coach comes in. It’s possible that they can overcome those obstacles, but when I read comments about the upcoming season, I generally don’t see much awareness that any of these obstacles are even there, or at the very least, people don’t seem to be taking them all that seriously. To the extent that I strike a tone of certainty, it’s to try to shift the ground of the discussion a little bit.