Playing Time: Knock-on Effects
Two big moves this week – the Braylon Edwards trade and the re-activation of Calvin Pace – figure to have a big effect on the Jets offense and defense over the course of the rest of the season. However, further down the roster this will have a ripple down effect upon playing time for several players in all three phases. Let’s investigate:
Offense: Braylon Edwards replaces Chansi Stuckey
Analysis: Edwards has been working at both receiver positions this week and there is some uncertainty over the status of Jerricho Cotchery. Even if we assume Cotchery is good to go, it isn’t as simple as replacing Stuckey’s reps with those of Edwards.
David Clowney saw action on just 5 offensive plays against the Patriots and was inactive for the last two weeks. However, Brad Smith’s lack of production as the number three may have meant that Clowney was soon due to get a more extended look. Stuckey often moved to slot receiver in 3 WR sets, with Smith working on the outside, so if both Edwards and Cotchery are good to go, it seems likely that Smith will lose some of those reps. However, he might also get more reps at the slot receiver position. Smith’s elusiveness might serve him well in that role and he has better size than Clowney to go over the middle, but neither has the hands of a possession receiver. Still, the Jets have been trying to find a way to get Clowney on the field and give him a chance to make plays, so his inclusion might enable the Jets to spread the field and weaken the offensive front.
Prediction: When the Jets go three wide, I think it’s most likely to be Dustin Keller, not Clowney or Smith, who lines up in the slot. Smith’s reps are fairly certain to reduce unless Cotchery is limited. While we may not see much of him, I at least expect Clowney to be active this week and he still represents a deep threat.
Defense: Calvin Pace returns
The return of Calvin Pace is sure to boost a defense which, while it has been getting great pressure on the quarterback, has only registered 4 sacks (as opposed to 9 by their opponents and 13 by Mangini’s defense in the first 4 games of last year). However, it’s perhaps against the run that the Jets defense will be challenged the most on Monday Night.
Earlier in the week, Rex Ryan stated that he didn’t plan to restrict Pace in anyway, but then a few days later Mike Pettine said he didn’t expect Pace to be physically ready to take on a full slate of reps and indicated that Vernon Gholston would back him up.
It was back to the drawing board for Gholston this week after he struggled against the run in New Orleans. Having played well in week one, he barely played against the Pats, as the Jets went to a five DB set, but then rebounded against the Titans, deservedly earning himself a game ball. In New Orleans though, he had a tough time of it.
With the Saints passing attack, Gholston might not have expected to play as much in New Orleans, but did see considerable playing time into the second half. After a couple of runs were bounced outside in the Titans game, Gholston made the adjustment in New Orleans, usually ensuring he had the hand placement to ensure he could maintain outside contain, but seemed tentative as the Saints ran at him a few times in the third quarter and cut back to the inside each time. There was usually a big hole, which means that the blame must also be partially attributed to the defensive end or inside linebacker on Gholston’s side of the field. Ironically, keeping discipline, staying in your lane and sticking to your assignment has been identified as the best way to approach stopping the wildcat, so Gholston might actually be seen as someone who can contribute against his old adversary Jake Long and the rest of the Dolphins offensive line, taking on blockers to enable guys like Bart Scott and David Harris to attack the ball carriers.
Marques Murrell and Jamaal Westerman figure to slide down the depth chart and may not see the field very much at all on defense.
Prediction: Moving forward, Pace and Thomas will get the majority of the reps and any significant playing time for Gholston, Murrell and Westerman will depend on them continuing to make progress, although Rex has been rotating defensive personnel a lot, so they should all get a shot. This week might be Gholston’s last chance to prove his is a consistent enough option to continue to receive regular playing time.
Special Teams – Jason Trusnik leaves
The effect that losing Jason Trusnik might have on the Jets special teams unit shouldn’t be underestimated, although this could give someone else on the team an opportunity to step up. Trusnik won the AFC’s special teams player of the week award after the Titans game where his hit, forced fumble and recovery on Ryan Mouton’s first quarter kickoff return set up Ben Hartsock’s touchdown catch.
Word from inside the Jets organization is that Ryan Fowler will be expected to step up and take his role. Larry Izzo has started to make a few plays too and perhaps the return of Calvin Pace will mean that Murrell or Westerman will step up their special teams performance in an effort to get noticed. Trusnik’s absence should at least guarantee that one or both of them are active on gameday.
Prediction: Fowler will step up and, while he might not play as well as Trusnik, I don’t expect the coverage units to suffer too greatly.
How about some thoughts and predictions from you guys?
Note: This assumes Monday night’s game will be a tight closely-contested affair. If, for whatever reason, it is not, then all bets are off…
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This is real easy…..Jets 24 Dolphins 13.
Bent, Your analysis of the slot receiver is similar to my own. With all the supposition focused on Clowney and Smith (neither who have excelled, even though Smith has had myriad chances), I remember that we traded up to get Dustin before taking any WR because he was the best pass catcher on the Board at that time.
Brad Smith will come in and the Fish will likely know an end around is coming. He may also go in on a WR screen to his side of the field due to his blocking. But I will be shocked if either of these two get more PT than Keller unless JCo really does not play at all.
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Hey thats my score too
Jets 24
Can of dolphin unsafe tuna 13
Hope Edwards shines, also I need Leon to blow up my fantasy football matchup depends on it since I had to bench Jerricho.
Go JETS!!!!!!!
I think Wallace Wright may see some time in the slot, he is better suited to that roll than either Clowney or Stuckey and he had been touted as Sanchez’ go to guy early in camp.
Also, IF Cotch is a scratch or is limited, would not be surprised to see Keller line up full time at WR with Harstock getting extra reps at TE.
After last week, Gholston would be inactive if I were the coach, Murrell played well when given the chance and has earned a shot.
Trusnick is just a guy, we will not miss him.
where the f is the clown why is he not playing…i just don’t get it
Sixes, Clown obviously has some flaws in his game, (or his personality ).
Despite his obvious talent, three coaching staffs have buried him on the depth chart, which I presume is no accident. If he were the real deal they would not have traded for Edwards which should serve to bury him further.
At various times I have seen it written that he drops too many passes, runs poor routes, and does not, or can not block.
The stats that bother me this week the most;
Miami averages 5.0 yds per carry, Jets allow 4.0.
Jets average 4.0 yds per carry, MIA allows 2.9.
This does not bode well, especially with road grader RT Woody limited or not playing.
Pace, for all the talk about his pass rushing skills, should be a big improvement vs. the run, where Gholston has been exploited at times. With or without the wildcat, they simply need to stop the run and dare the rook to beat them, similar to what the opponents have been doing to the Jets.
On offense, they need to stop the smokescreens, the motion, the razzle dazzle, and just run the damn ball, preferably between the tackles. Impose your will on the defense.
Commit to pounding the rock, even at the expense of a few three and outs, and good things will happen later in the game.
No more third and one pass plays, PLEASE!
Wise – I like your thinking re: Wallace Wright.
On Gholston, I can’t defend his performance on Sunday, where he was driven back a few times and look confused on another occasion, but I see people criticizing him for not shedding a block and tackling the ball carrier, when if he was to do that on a play when they are cutting to the inside, then it opens up the possibility of a bounce to the outside for a huge gain. Where his assignment has been just to maintain contain, which is likely to be the case against the wildcat, he has usually done a good job.
Bent,
Stuckey reminds me in many ways of a poor man’s Laverneus Coles: great hands, great YAC. He was really a smaller/ faster version of Cotch in our system. Who that next possession receiver will be is up to the three men left on the roster: Wright, BSmith, or Clowney. I would love to see Wallace Wright step up as I don’t see the Clown or BSmith as those type of guys with great hands.
Sticking with your assesment last year, BSmith has to prove himself a capable receiver in year 3 otherwise it’s waiver wire city 2010, no?
Bent, I agree almost completely with what you said. However as far as the receivers go, you said that Clowney and Smith don’t have the hands of a slot receiver. I haven’t seen Clowney enough during games to know this. His one and only reception last year was an excellent catch against Buffalo, showing very good hands.
Dr. K – it might be his last chance to show what he has as a wideout, but I think much like ww his st play is enough to keep him in the league (if not as a jet).
Paul – I base that on seeing him in college, the fact that the packers cited it as one of the reasons they cut him and the fact he had a few drops in preseason the last few years.
I wish that Brad Smith who I like and is tough and physical. and a good blocker as well as the “seminole” trick stuff would be good enough. That said when healthy I’d put Cotch back in the Slot. He is the best guy for the job hands down… Gholston will play alot against Miami, Pace will be alittle winded for not having the reps this season. My guess at our next ST Hero Murrell He’ll be the guy.
*** By the way, Best of luck to both Stuckey & Trusnik, Thank you ***
Bent
Nice analysis. As for Edwards, what we’ve done basically is trade a #3 receiver for a #1 receiver (apart from Trusnik and the picks) allowing Cotch to move over to #2. While Stuckey played the #2, he wasn’t that suited to the role. The trade, although not filling a hole because it robbed Peter to pay Paul, allows us to settle in at the two main WR roles, while focusing in on the characteristics we need in a slot guy. That would be quickness and great hands, IMO. I’m with you guys on Wright. I think he’s the closest we’ve got on the roster. But, we no longer have to try and make a square peg fit in a round hole. We’ve got a pure #1 and a pure #2. We’re still a receiver short, but we know what we need and we ought to be settled at two positions, 1 and 2 wrs. That alone ought to bring the offense some options and stability.
I don’t know if Gholston is gonna make it in the NFL. Million dollar body-ten cent head pops to mind, but that’s probably unfair. I think if they can simplify his role, he’ll be fine. If the game is too complicated for him, it’s a doomed experiment.
I think Clowney gets a chance this week as well. Dolphins give up big plays and that is the one think Clowney might be able to do. I think Brad Smith really hurt himself when he ran a wrong route against the Saints early on. He just doesnt do enough in games to blow plays like that and keep going, Probably the last shot for Gholston this week. If they run at him once and he blows it I think he will see the bench. He was a liability last week. Id imagine we should be fine on specials.
Anyway I think this will be a close game with little offense from both sides. Miami doesnt know how to score and wont pass much. It will be a good test to see if our run defense is actually weak or if our run D simply has given up plays because we are daring teams to run. I think its somewhere in the middle, but it should be a good test. I think the major difference is that we have the ability to put together big plays on offense from time to time and our defense is super strong inside the 10. Both of those traits really hurt the Dolphins this week.
Though not affected by the Braylon move, I’d like to throw another name into the discussion: Shonn Greene.
He seems to be past the ankle injury which caused him to leave last week’s game early, so do we expect to see more of him? Against the Saints he looked pretty good before going down. I wonder how much more work he was planned to get in that game?
Fans are already complaining that Leon isn’t seeing the ball enough (maybe we need to concede more touchdowns?) so any reps for Greene will presumably cut into TJ’s workload. Anyone else get a Lamont Jordan-esque “give him a few series and then leave him on the bench” vibe? I hope they stick with him as long as he’s effective (although I understand his pass protection needs refining, making him a little one-dimensional).
Bent,
I think that is primarily why they don’t use Greene as often because his blocking at this point “needs refining.” We need to keep our Sanchise upright (which makes me nervous having Wayne “turnstile” Hunter at RT).
Could it be that they don’t give Leon enough touches because his blocking just isn’t as good as TJ’s?
While we’re talking offense, a game like last week gives me those Schotty’s-being-too-cute-for-his-own-sake feeling again.
WOJF beat me to the punch on Wallace Wright. I was also wondering if he might be better suited to the slot than Smith. Probably has better hands and he’s certainly used to the traffic he’ll see over the middle from his teams play.
As for Clowney, I think the Jets will need to really get their running game going before the slow developing deep routes that feature his attributes are going to be viable. Until that happens, opponents are going to be coming after Sanchez pretty relentlessly and screens, intermediate outs, TE seams, etc. are likely going to be the pass calls. Any deeper throws would probably go to BE, who’s got a better chance of catching balls while covered than Clowney, who probably needs to get behind the coverage to be successful.
[...] Wide Receivers: See Bent’s “Offense: Braylon replaces Chansi.” [...]