Link: Feast or Famine
This week Gregg Easterbrook writes about moonbase subsidies, but he also writes about Rex Ryan and how he blitzes.
TMQ has been warning that Rex Ryan’s all-out blitzing might work now and then, but it also will backfire — the big third-down conversion on Miami’s winning drive came against a seven-man blitz. Following the two-minute warning, Miami put three people — Henne, Ronnie Brown and Pat White — behind center on various plays. And TMQ liked that trailing 27-24, facing third-and-goal on the Jets’ 2 with 10 seconds remaining, the Dolphins put Brown in charge and ran a Wildcat misdirection play for the touchdown. Dance with the one that brung you!
We like that Rex brings pressure, but the results are spotty, at best so far for the Jets. Mangini was more effective in actually bringing down QBs, but I’d still argue that this defense is a better variety, even after Monday night, than Mangini’s was … still Bent emailed us today and noted that “Mangini’s defense had 13 sacks in 4 games, Rex has 4 in 5…is the constant blitzing just like a slugger constantly using his home run swing and now his average is sliding as a result? Get back to driving the ball [ie dominating at the point of attack] if you want to improve the consistency.”
And I agree there, the Jets need to try and see what they can do up front and see how that effects the pocket and where the QB moves, and scoop up some sacks from the OLBs near the edges.
44 Responses to Link: Feast or Famine
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The Ed(itor) says:
Same Old JETS! The Defense laid down and let the Fish walk over them. Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas were invisible as were the two Defensive ends. Rushing 7 and not getting to the QB is horrible. It is clear that the JETS O-Line and D-Line need shoring up.
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Rudibager says:
Same ol’ Jets fans…. Complaining about one bad defensive game.
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niko1677 says:
The “experts” are saying that the Jets D does not live and die with the blitz, which is incorrect. As per Sparano’s review of game film the Jets blitzed on only 1/3 of plays Monday night. Miami was able to counter it on a couple of occassions by keeping in extra blockers and/or using designed roll-outs. I would actually say that the Jets defense and Rex’s play calling was a little too passive against Miami.
It is obviously to me that our front is incapable of creating consistent pocket pressure without additional help from the edges or otherwise.
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Harris52ChampionshipDefense says:
The Jets picked up a lot of sacks early last year thanks to Jenkins just having a monster first part of the year, and Bryan Thomas playing really well. Jenkins has played well thus far, but not near the dominant level he was at last year, while Thomas, shockingly, has been ridiculously inconsistent (he made some nice plays on Monday, but too often was invisible unless he was whiffing on a tackle). Ellis also started like gang busters last year. The Jets can blitz as many middle LBs and safeties as they want; their sack numbers won’t improve unless the DLs and the OLBs can step up their game.
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JesusRevis says:
I have a question for Bent, how is this Braylon Edwards trade going to effect the contract talks with Leon Washington? Can the Jets afford to sign both to the deals they are looking for without hurting themselves for the future in dealing with contracts for Revis, Harris, Ferguson, etc. ?
Thanks, as always
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Jack says:
Sacks are overrated. Yes, the Jets sack total is way down through the first 5 games but they have the 5th rated passer rating (against them) in the league at 67.6. They finished last year with a QB rating of 88.1, 22nd in the league. And they have done that against some pretty good QBs named Brady, Brees and Schaub. Henne, ironically enough, is the one who had the best rating to date.
The idea is to put pressure on the QB and knock him off his game. If they get a sack all the better but the main goal is to disrupt the passing game. They are doing this at a much better rate than last year.
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jp losman says:
i think the sack total has more to do with who the opposing qb’s were. well, atleast until monday this theory made more sense.
week2 was brady and he never takes sacks. the important thing in that game was the pressure the D got on him.
week3 was collins. another guy who has been around for a while. we got a decent amount pressure on him and forced some bad throws. collins had to be perfect in order to move the ball.
week 4 was brees
sack totals don’t always tell the entire story. weeks 2/3/4 are a prime example of why. i think completeion % should be taken into just as much consideration as sack totals.
monday night was the night we really needed sacks rather than pressure. miami is an excpetion because our defense was getting picked apart by the run. instead of starting 2nd and 4 , a few 2nd a 15′s would have been nice. on 3rd and anything over 8, miami was like o for 4 and not even close.
if this were a comparison between the two defenses, the upside from rex ryans defense towers over any of the three mangini years. rex ryans defense, although revis is more refined, makes it so offenses have less margin of errror.
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SackDance99 says:
Againt the Texans, the Jets got 2 sacks and the NFL saw that Rex would be blitzing and blitzing some more. So, the Pats decided to have Brady in a hurry up the entire game and he passed quickly. The Jets hit him, but didn’t sack him. Against the Titans, 2 more sacks when Collins mostly dropped back. Brees wasn’t sacked, but he has a very quick release and has only been sacked 4 times. All 4 of those sacks came against 4-3 defenses and 1/2 of those sacks were caused when the opposing RDE beat the LT and sacked Brees. The Jets do not have a DL that can play heads up on the LT and get a sack, so the Jets have to blitz.
The lack of sacks against Henne can be attributable to 3 things. First, Henne wasn’t in many 3rd and longs. Second, Miami did a good job of moving Henne around. Third, the Dolphins OL did a good job.
If the Jets had a DL that could win a one-on-one battle with an LT, the Jets would have a boatload of sacks. They don’t, so Rex has to be creative with his blitzes. We are just going to have to live with the fact that if the blitzes don’t get to the QB, the Jets will not have many sacks. I will say though that Pace is the best Jets pass rusher and he looked rusty. As the season goes on, I think Pace will win some one-on-one battles.
The real tragedy is that the Jets are paying VG a ton of money because he was supposed to be a pass rushing menace. He’s paid like an elite pass rusher, but he isn’t. To trade for or get a UFA pass rusher, VG’s contract or a similar high contract has to be cleared. That wasted cap money on VG is a millstone.
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Bent says: JR – sorry I can’t give you a link (posting remotely) but do a search for my article from last week called “braylon Edwards: the financials” and that should answer your question. The short answer is that I think they have sufficient flexibility to retain everyone essential unless anyone makes ridiculously exhorbitant demands.
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Bent,
“The short answer is that I think they have sufficient flexibility to retain everyone essential unless anyone makes ridiculously exhorbitant demands.”
Thats my point, what makes you think a bunch of these guys wont make those ridiculously exhorbitant demands? I expect Revis to demand to be the highest paid corner in NFL history, which he deserves, but they will have to pay it nonetheless. What if Ferguson continues to improve and warrants a big contract as well? I cant remember a Jets team having this much young talent and I find it difficult to imagine that they will be able to re-sign all of these guys.
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sack – the bills got to henne 6 times the week before.
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Sack numbers are ALWAYS deceiving. The Jets had more sacks last year than the Ravens, but we all know how much better last years Ravens defense was than last years Jet defense. Its all about getting pressure, the sacks will come.
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JR,
Be patient, guys like Faneca, Woody and Ellis all have huge contracts, as does VG. Over the next couple of years, some of the high cap older guys and underperforming young guys will have to get cut or sign more cap friendly deals. Revis and Brick are the type of players that cannot be easily replaced, but Pace, BT, Moore and even Rhodes, who has to step it up, can be replaced. Baltimore, for the most part, kept its core of Lewis, Reed and Ogden together for a long time. They added Suggs, but they’ve also let go lots of players. I trust Rex and Tanny to give the roster a tough evaluation and make the proper decisions as to who is a keeper and who isn’t. Also, I’m sure Tanny has a strategy for an uncapped 2010.
IMO, if Edwards pans out, the Jets will have to keep the passing corps of Braylon, Keller and Sanchez together. But, besides Mangold, Brick and, maybe, Leon, the rest of the offense can be replaced and, as much as I hate to admit, Faneca might not have as much left in the tank as I thought and Woody’s only claim to fame is that he was a clear upgrade over Clement…not a very high bar. With Jones surely a goner, there’s fat to trim on offense. On defense, Jenkins, Scott, Harris, Revis and Leonhard are keepers. Anyone else with a high cap number can be replaced and I’m eager to see what the low cost guys like Westerman, Murrell and Pitoitua can do. In fact, I’d like to see Pitoitua in a steady rotation on the DL, he was the best DL in pre-season.
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AL says:
Brian I disagree with you saying that the results have been spotty at best with regard to Rex’s pressure. They have been outstanding.
They have Yielded 3 touchdowns in 4 games and we had one poor game.
Does anyone remember Tom I broke the TD record,have gone to 4 superbowls, MVP of the National Football League Brady not score 1 touchdown against US.
Or Drew I’m Leading the Best Offense in the NFL get 1 TD against US.
Or Matt I’m lighting up other teams not named the Jets Schaub get shut out.
We are not going to win every game but the D was spectacular if you want to use a stat in 80% of the games this year. Not Good, Spectacular.
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Sack,
I agree about Pitoitua, but why is he always inactive?
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jplosman,
The Fins beat the Bills 38-10. The Bills have Schobel, who also sacked Brees. Having a guy like Schobel means that the Bills will get more sacks. I didn’t see the Bills-Dolphins game, but I’m sure that given the score, the Fins weren’t concerned about Henne being sacked. The blitz makes an offense game plan for it, which means fewer deep drops, more max protect, and shorter passes. Different games, different defenses (4-3 v. 3-4…the 4-3 naturally lends itself to more sacks) and different personnel. That the Bills sacked Henne 6 times and got routed really is sort of meaningless, right?
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Bent says:
JR – I was thinking more of a guy who would want to be paid like the highest paid player at his position but didn’t deserve it. Of course they should pay Revis top dollar as long as he doesn’t regress or get hurt. If one of these guys wanted more than he was worth, then the Jets could still probably afford it, but my sense is that they shouldn’t overpay a guy that wants substantially more money than he is worth. So it’s not a matter of being able to afford them all, but more what they would sacrifice if they chose to overpay any of them as against deciding to let some other team overpay him.
Obviously any decision will have to be weighed up. As a very vague example, say Braylon wants 10-12m a year next year, maybe the Jets would be better off signing a replacement for 6-8m a year and then using that other 4m to bolster their depth on the lines.
It is true they have a lot of talent, but like Sack says, if they can continue to fill out the rest of the roster with young talent like Clowney, DeVito and Westerman (and cheap veterans like Izzo, Hartsock and Richardson), then they should still be able to afford to re-up those guys. Enough big contracts will be coming to an end or reaching a point where they can be restructured or ended cheaply over that period to create room.
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Bent says:
I don’t think Ropati is ready yet, but he sure looked like a guy who will contribute next year, all being well.
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JR,
Rex has been keeping tons of DBs active…I think Pitoitua could’ve helped more than Green or Fowler, but I’m sure there’s a special teams reason for Fowler being active…but why Fowler over Westerman? Is Westerman injured?
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Bent says:
Fowler has taken Trusnik’s role on the coverage units.
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bernie says:
Is the constant blitzing just like a slugger constantly using his home run swing and now his average is sliding as a result?
No, the bottom line is we really don’t have much pass rushing talent. Think about it, who is a truly feared pass rusher on this team? Compare us to the giants, with Uminyora, Tuck, Kiwanuka, et al. We have no one in the league with any of those guys. We get to the QB on blitzes only. Period. It’s called years of missing on high D-line draft picks, and not taking enough of them to spread out the risk. Where have you gone, John Abraham?….
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Bent,
The only thing Ropati has to work on is anger management, I think he got 2 unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in pre-season…lol. He is raw, but he’s a load at DE and, like I said, the Jets really don’t have a DE that can win a one-on-one battle with an LT. If the Jets had a guy like that who, in passing downs needed to be doubled, the OLB would have a field day. Maybe VG all of a sudden turns into Suggs?
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Bent,
Why Fowler over Westerman?
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Here’s a sequence that I forgot about in the 2nd quarter:
4-3-MIA 40 (4:58) (Punt formation) B.Smith right end to MIA 28 for 12 yards (Y.Bell). R10
1-10-MIA 28 (4:12) T.Jones up the middle to MIA 28 for no gain (S.Smith; G.Wilson).
PENALTY on NYJ-D.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 28 – No Play.
1-20-MIA 38 (3:42) (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to L.Washington.
2-20-MIA 38 (3:35) L.Washington up the middle to MIA 27 for 11 yards (A.Ayodele, N.Jones).
3-9-MIA 27 (2:48) (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to D.Clowney to MIA 22 for 5 yards (V.Davis).
4-4-MIA 22 (2:12) (Field Goal formation) J.Feely 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-S.Weatherford.Brick called for holding on a running play for no gain?!? Wow, in retrospect, that was a killer.
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Bent says:
It would be interesting to see what VG could do if one of the other players was being double teamed rather than him, but I don’t exactly expect him to turn into Suggs overnight. Before we turn water into wine, how about Calvin Pace turns into Calvin Pace first?
I accept bernie’s disagreement of my analogy, although the overload blitzing is intended to counter that fact (the lack of pass rushing talent) and still create pressure. To be fair, it has done that and the QB ratings from some good players are testament to that. Rex did say pressure was more important than sacks. I’d say the lack of pressure in the Miami game is due to the defense being on its heels and more concerned with gap control.
I did come up with two other analogies…
1. A pitcher who throws a fastball all the time and the hitters (QBs and, to an extent, the linemen) get into a rhythm as a result. Keep them off balance with a few change ups (show pressure but drop off a few times so that when you do bring the house, they aren’t ready for it).
(I think I will reject this on the basis that Rex isn’t blinding sending guys after the QB and is varying up the types of blitzes – again, harder to do when the wildcat has you on your heels, because the extra blocker makes lane integrity essential)
2. A boxer that keeps swinging haymakers and missing, instead of setting it up with some jabs. Send the weakside backer after the QB three times, but then on the fourth time send the safety instead and drop the backer into coverage.
(I think they could benefit from NOT varying it up, so that the defense thinks it knows what is coming, rather than being all geared up to react to anything).
I probably should give up on the analogies. I’ll spare you my synchronized swimming one!
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While I do think the Jets need to begin this week seeing if they actually have a player that can do what they expected VG to do in terms of being a 1 on 1 rusher the overall pass numbers indicate to me that the scheme works even if the sacks are not there. Our new corners have missed most of the season so the personnel is more or less the same. Here are the key stats from 2008 compared to the quality of opposition:
Completion %: 6.22%
Yards: 14.7%
TDs: 19%
INT: 0.6%
1st downs allowed: 25%
20+ Plays: 1%
40+ Plays: -27.7%
Sacks: 19.7%Despite sacking the opposition 19.7% times more than the opposition was sacked against their other 15 opponents they had a higher completion %, yards, TDs, and 1st downs through the air. Our Interceptions were about average as were the 20+ plays. We did a good job deep down the field.
Here are the 2009 numbers through 5 games:
Completion %:-15.4%
Yards: -18.8%
TDs: -63.2%
INT: 8.57%
1st downs allowed: -26.5%
20+ Plays: -20.8%
40+ Plays: -15.5%
Sacks: -52.5%So despite the miserable sack numbers we are holding teams well below their average in every category, a huge jump from last season. Our interceptions are up. About the only area worse is that we have not protected the deep pass as well, but odds are those numbers are skewed by the dud we just laid in Miami where they had the two big plays, which are the only ones we gave up this year. These are not spotty results if they keep up at this pace. These are dominating numbers. I tend to think Miami was an aberration, but we shall see in the coming weeks if that is the case.
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Bent says:
Sack – Fowler is an experienced special teamer. I’m not sure Westerman is as reliable in space and probably doesn’t have the same kind of mobility. Just speculating though, maybe Fowler will be cut tomorrow and Westerman will become the next Ayenbadejo.
Westerman has flashed in places, but from what I have seen from him, he is too error-prone. In terms of depth at ILB, I guess the Jets want someone reliable, even if that guy doesn’t have the same big-play potential. (This seems fitting in a thread called “feast or famine”, huh?) Even Larry Izzo made a good play inside the five!
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brian311 says:
the problem with the pass rush, in the dolphins game at least, was every 3rd and long obvious blitz situation, the dolphins simply went max protection. i dont care how complicated the blitz scheme is, if you are going up against a wall of 5 OLs and 2 blocking TEs, it will be difficult to get to the QB. also in other situations, the dolphins rolled henne out to buy an extra second.
the dolphins did a great job of countering our blitz. rex has to do a better job of making adjustments. either use zone/over load blitzes, or just drop 7 into coverage.
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Bent says:
Jason indirectly makes a great point. Put Stick and Shep in for Lowery and Coleman and maybe some of those seemingly easy throws to open receivers are not there and the QB is forced to take a sack a couple of times a game (or better still, throws a pick and then thinks twice the next time).
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I agree with Jason’s great post. Miami has the no. 1 rushing offense in the NFL and runs the Wildcat better than and more frequently with better personnel than any team in the NFL (with Ronnie Brown being left-handed, too). So, the Fins are unique. Henne was also somewhat of a mystery and Rex admitted he didn’t respect him enough. Let’s see what happens up here in 3 weeks. I still think the Wildcat can be shut down and if the Fins have to rely on their base offense, they’re in trouble.
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Bent says:
Losing to Henne is like when a team sees a rookie pitcher for the first time and then can’t get any hits off him because they aren’t used to his tendencies.
I can’t stop making baseball analogies! What’s wrong with me?
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Jack says:
Willing to bet we see Marquice Cole released this week with Sheppard and/or Strickland returning this week. Also will see him released cause Cotchery and Smith didn’t practice. Marcus Henry will be joining the active roster most likely.
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TimNC says:
Jason posted “I tend to think Miami was an aberration, but we shall see in the coming weeks if that is the case.”
I agree completely. In 4 out of 5 games this year, against some very good offensive opponents, the Jets D was great – borderline stellar. I think that’s the real Jets D. Why they laid an egg in Miami? Who knows, best answer I can come up with is because its a Jets-Dolphins game and thats’ why. Crazy things happen when these two teams square off. This coming from an alumni of the Monday Night Miracle!
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buttHoleSurfer says:
Bent…I can make a baseball analogie for anything in life…..I love blitzing I think its great and there is no reason to stop…also there is no way that the jets can afford to keep mangold revis harris washington and edwards all coming off rookie contracts in the same year…not the way they haven spending …one or two of em will be gone…guarantee so be ready for it…and with the lack of draft picks it will be difficult to replace them
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Bent says:
First of all, Revis is signed through 2011.
Secondly, what I didn’t mention was the uncapped year, which – if it happens – will afford them a good opportunity to extend some of them with frontloaded deals that don’t have huge cap hits in future years. Even if there is a cap, they should be fine because they have plenty of flexibility.
Jones, Woody and probably Faneca, Ellis and BT will be gone by then, which will create the cap room they need.
Obviously, there are a ton of variables so I have to talk in generalities but I have a pretty good track record. The cap is in pretty good shape compared with the number of holes on the team.
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NYDREAMER says:
Mark Sanchez is up for Rookie of the week again, Go Vote!
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Matt Orchant says:
Only in New York. Guy was the defensive coordinator for the most consistently dominating defense in the NFL of the last decade, but his scheme is entirely wrong. We know this because a writer for the WSJ said so. Ridiculous.
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NYSACKEXCHANGE says:
There are pros and cons to prevent defense and heavy blitz. I’ll take my chances with the blitz especially against a young Q.B.
If you guys remember when the Phins were going for a 0-16 season, they beat the Ravens with a quick slant that went the distance for the game winner, Things happen and there are pros and cons to both.. It was well orcastrated play call by Miami, a rollout from the gun. Very ingenious.
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dakar says:
i’ll take ryan’s D over mangini’s D anyday…are D definitly played bad…they didn’t put any pressure on the QB and they didn’t tackle like they did the 1st 4 games…they drag tackled the whole game and gave all day for henne to throw the ball…in 2 weeks when we beat the hell out of miami with ryan’s D…THIS CONVERSATION YOUR ALL HAVING WILL HAVE BEEN MEANINGLESS…as it is now…just my thoughts…
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Jetsetter says:
Start Gholsten at DE with Jenkins and Ellis!
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I am not going to start killing the Rex defense because we got beat my Miami and their wildcat offense.
The Colts got beat up the same way and found a way to win the game. Something we had chances to do also…..Was it a mirage that we handled the Texans,Pats,Tenn,and NO offenses?? The fact is Rex was outcoached and couldnt figure out a gimimick offense and it worked to perfection.
Comparing anything this defense has done to any of Mangini’s teams is an insult to any Jet fan. I dont care how many sacks we had under Mangini. There is no comparision.
Typical crazy overreactions…..
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Wise Old Jet Fan says:
Agree its too soon to throw this defense under the bus, but the inability to stop the run is a big red flag, as is the lack of pass rush from the base defense, no matter how you spin it.
If you HAVE to blitz to get pressure, quality NFL coaches will adjust.
Sure, you can beat the Bills and Raiders, but the bar has been set a bit higher than 9-7 this year. To beat the top teams you need to generate pressure from your base package, and stop the run when you know your opponent is going to run.
Sean Ellis has been invisible since about Week 8 last season, and Douglass is getting manhandled. Jenkins is a load but can not play more than three plays in a row before needing oxygen, and Pouha is getting abused.
The D line needs a major overhaul next season and may just be the achiles heal that keeps them from being a serious contender this year.
In the meantime it could not hurt to give some/more reps to Pit and DeVito just to see if they can bring something to the table that Ellis and Douglass can not.
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The Jets D-Line is definitely their biggest weakness. However, the basis of a 3-4 defense relies on OLB’s generating pressure, serving as the main pass rushers. Our D-Line is pretty standard for a 3-4 defense, but we are missing that stud OLB that is necessary for this type of defense. Other teams that play a 3-4 have guys like Demarcus Ware, James Harrison, Lemarr Woodley, Joey Porter, Terrel Suggs. I like Calvin Pace, a lot, but hes not in that class as far as being a pass rusher. The Jets drafted Vernon Gholston to play that role for us, and so far it looks like it’s not going to happen. So do we need to improve the D-Line, or do we need to invest more money into finding a stud OLB?
I think the difference is obvious. Mangini’s defense accumulated more sacks because he was dropping more players into coverage, which ultimately led to a ton of ‘coverage’ sacks. On the other hand, Ryan is bringing the heat which has forced QB’s to either get rid of the ball early or check it down to the RB’s. The blitzes have been working, despite the poor sack numbers. As long as we can stop teams on 3rd down, I dont care how many sacks we get.