Link: Walkthrough on Sanchez
Mike Tanier at Football Outsiders wrote a very detailed breakdown of Mark Sanchez and his interceptions from the game last weekend. Without ruining anything, we’ll give you Tanier’s conclusion, but really it’s the whole lead up that’s the best part.
Sanchez is a very impressive rookie quarterback who will be able to win several more games this season once he has a full complement of offensive weapons. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s overall game plan against the Bills was excellent: he established the run and stuck with it, calling pass plays that emphasized play action and protection. It’s up to the players to execute, and when Sanchez wasn’t battling the wind or making mistakes, Edwards and Keller were dropping passes, or Clowney and Hartsock were running bad routes. The problem will self-correct once Cotchery and Smith return. Until then, Sanchez can live without the Namath comparisons.
It’s interesting, because many people were killing Schottenheimer for his calls, but I do think that for as unflashy as Cotchery is to the national media, he’s a big part of what made Sanchez successful early in the season. Sanchez knows he’s a reliable route runner.
Still Sanchez has to get over his staring down receivers, which Tanier concludes he did on multiple bad throws, and that Darren Sharper pointed out three weeks ago. He’s got to stop doing that. Now.
I’m thinking Sanchez will be fine, while 5 picks is brutal, it’s that type of performance that you have to expect when you hand the reigns to a rookie with as little experience as he has.
Schottenheimer’s solid although sometimes I think he is predictably unpredictable (Running on long down and distance, bubble screens in same situation, shifting strength of field to run to weak side)
That article left me feeling conflicted.
On one hand, I’m glad that some of the crappiness Mark displayed last Sunday can be attributed to garbage receiver play. Makes it seem like it’s not his fault.
On the other hand, it’s scary that losing Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Freakin’ Smith has such a profound impact on the passing game. I’d been telling myself, especially after the Miami game, that Clowney was a viable option in the passing game. Now it seems like he just sucks. I wore a Dustin Keller jersey during the game, and he was flat out awful.
I’m not sure exactly what the implication is: Sanchez isn’t good enough to overcome a weak receiving corps, or the receiving corps is so thin it can’t sustain itself though a couple nagging injuries.
Either way, its troubling. Unless it isn’t.
That’s what my analysis told me too, Bassett.
Leon and TJ broke two long runs each (which happens when their is 8 or 9 in the box, because there’s nobody at the second level). Other than that, Leon averaged 3.1 a carry and TJ averaged 3.7 a carry. If your run is getting stuffed more often than not, you’re going to end up with a passing situation on 3rd down, where you have no choice but to pass. The situation simply becomes worse if you run all the time.
If anyone can look at the play-by-play and give me more than a couple of situations where they ran when they should have passed and vice versa, I’d like to hear them.
I didn’t want Sanchez throwing downfield either, but short passes are just as likely to be stuffed with 8 in the box, in fact, just like with the runs, Leon broke one, but other than that 6 passes to RBs netted just 30 yards (and one almost got Leon KO’d!)
Schott isn’t perfect by any means, but he’s called many worse games than this one. What more could he have done? I think the defense could have been softened up by an end-around (he may not feel confident running those without Cotch, Stuckey or Smith on the team or may just have been relunctant to do it in the rain after what happened last year) and by Sanchez tucking and running once or twice (which is Mark’s choice, not Schott’s.)
“reluctant to do it in the rain”—what rain?
I don’t know what is happening with Keller, but he did suck last game. He needs to be one of the reliable receivers for Sanchez. Edwards is basically the Jets verison of T.O., capable of making big plays, but will have a lot of drops. That is fine as long as we have reliable receivers to convert on critical first down situations. Keller has to step up and be one of those reliable third down receivers so that on first and second down we have the ability to mix up the run with some potential big plays with Edwards.
Also, Schotty still takes some blame. I didn’t think he had a good game. Ture, the players have to execute, but it was obivious that Sanchez and Keller were struggling. There should have been more throws to the RB’s and some draw plays to catch the defense off guard. Also, although Clowney isn’t a great route runner, they should have at least tried to get him in man coverage for one attempted bomb.
I’m sorry guys…. there is NO EXCUSE for Schotty. It doesn’t matter how many long runs there were, any team that runs for over 300 yards should not have 5 picks. Those are two totally counter-intuitive statistics. Its inexcusable, no matter whose fault it was on the field, Mark, Dustin, the WRs. It doesn’t matter. At some point when during the game when Mark has already thrown two or three picks and we have dominated the running game, it is the Coach’s responsibility to real it in, slow the game down, and just grind out the win on the ground. If you go three in out every time, who cares! You are winning by 10 points, you have a defense that wasn’t play terribly, and you have Fitzpatrick going at you. I absolutely hate the Dolphins, but at this point I am completely envious of their clock management. The way they possess the ball against good teams has significantly improved their chances of winning games (refer to the Indy game where if it wasn’t for a freak QB on the other side, they win). Its not always pretty, its not flashy, its just straight up smart. I don’t want TDs, I want to ball possession.
NJets,
Refer to the Fins/Colts Monday Night Football game for their superior clock “management”. I’ve never seen a 2 minute drill look that terrible in my entire life.
I guess you missed Bent’s point, but basically besides a few long runs/Leon’s one catch, the RB’s were not pounding out yardage. Under 4 ypc for both RB’s if you exclude TJ’s two long runs and Leon’s lone big run. About 5 ypc on balls dumped off to the RB’s.
They had to try to throw deep to get the Bills to back off, otherwise it was going to be like running into a brick wall. And the TD our defense gave up would’ve been a TD from any spot on the field with our all-out blitz and Evan’s game-breaking speed, so sitting on a 13-3 lead and running 3-and-outs would have been just as bad as the INT’s.
14 minutes, 53 seconds… that’s the amount of time Indy had the ball that game, and regardless of how they ran the 2 minute drill (which has nothing to do with overall clock management or my point), they were in a very good position to win that game.
I understood Bent’s point perfectly… and its a good point… but whats to say Leon or TJ don’t break two or three more huge ones? I mean, I saw the game with my own two eyes. They were definitely struggling to stop the run, regardless of what the YPC say. Those were looking like some easy 5 yards. 3 and outs are not as bad as INT’s because INT’s screw you in field position. It turns 80 yard drives for them into 40-60 yard drives. Its inexcusable we didn’t continue to run the ball until they showed the could completely (and i mean completely) shut it down. 4-7 yards per carry is very good average in this league.
I would usually agree with Bent’s and Brendan’s argument, but not against that team and not in those conditions. Unfortunately, Sanchez is going to need to experience in bad weather just as much as he needs NFL experience in general. It was obvious that the cold and the wind were affecting him mentally and physically. And it was also obvious after Edwards went out that Buffalo was not going to score much if the Jets played a good field position game. As ugly as it would’ve been, Schott shoud’ve played it ultra conservative, Ravens/Flacco style game when they were up 10 and eeked out a low scoring win. The only way they could’ve lost that game was to beat themselves, which they did. Stupid.
NJets – I do agree with your point about going 3 and out and punting being better than turning it over – and that this might havemeant they broke more long ones (especially if that wore down the defense).
If we pinned them deep with a punt in ot instead of throwing a pick, they’d have had the field position advantage and probably won.
As an aside, I absolutely hated the decision to receive having won the toss in overtime.. They should have kicked off and had the wind behind them.
Oh, and nvj…I stand corrected about the rain, I thought there was some. If not, then I definitely think they should have run at least one reverse.
I agree with Led too…the coaching staff shouldn’t let the reactions the fans would have given to a three and out influence them.
Hartsock doesn’t hold in OT on a RUN and the Jets eke out an ugly win. I thought Schott’s playcalling was fine, except for the bomb to Edwards (I would have thrown a bomb to Clowney with Edwards as a decoy) and he should have run the reverse to Clowney that Sanchez kept faking. Also, I would not have given up on the Seminole after just one stop. But, it’s really hard to fault the offense or defense schemes in the face of 6 turnovers.
NJets,
The 2 minutes drill to win the game has nothing to do with overall clock management? I think it has quite a bit to do with overall clock management, possibly moreso than any other part of the game since the game is on the line.
3 out of 40 rushes were long ones, what’s to say that we rush it another 20 times and get no more long runs?
Obviously Int’s are worse, but if you don’t pass you’re going to go 3 and out every drive when you need to put more points up on the board. You can’t rush the ball every play.
And you’re assertion that we didn’t continue to run the ball is way off base. Our run/pass ratio stayed consistent throughout the game, staying at or around 60/40 in both halves of the game. Maybe the fact that we weren’t ripping off the big runs in the second half makes people think we abandoned the run, but that just wasn’t the case.
By the way, have we run a screen to a RB in the last few weeks? If so, I can’t remember it. And I don’t even remember any screens to a WR against the Bills. The screen game used to be a productive part of our offense. Not sure where it went.
Brendan…
Why do you keep bringing up the 2 minute drill? My whole point has nothing to do with whether or not they actually won the game. The point is that a very inferior team (the Dolphins) held Indy to 14 minutes, 53 seconds and they had a very good shot to win the game. It doesn’t matter whether the game was on the line or not in the final 2 minutes…I don’t get why you’re stuck on that.
We didn’t need to put more points. We were up by 10, our defense wasn’t breaking badly, and Fitzpatrick was their QB. 60/40 shouldn’t stay 60/40. Not when Sanchez has already thrown 3 interceptions, he is clearly struggling in the conditions, and WRs are dropping everything. That’s the whole point, the Coaching staff didn’t adjust. We should of ran the clock out and won that game. Period. Oh and yes… logic would imply that given 20 more opportunities to run the balls, 1 or 2 more long runs would of broken off. Especially if you continue to wear their line and they defense out as the game goes along.
FWIW, I think Fitzgerald is a better QB than Edwards. He has more mobility and a better arm. Not that Fitz really killed the Jets D, but I thought his deep passing skills should have been respected a tad more.
I think the one problem I see with Bents analysis is that you can’t make believe that the long runs by Thomas and Leon did not happen—and say that Leon averaged 3.1 and TJ 3.7. Just because they were long runs does not mean you can eliminate them from the average yards per carry. By that logic you could take away any +5 yards and get their average even lower to justify a point. The Jets averaged 8yds per carry, Leon 6.6 and TJ 9.5 that is a fact. You can’t assume that if they would have run more that average would not have been maintained. The fact is you don’t know what would have happened—but with Sanchez having a miserable day, the windy/cold conditions, I think more runs were in order.
NJets,
I am not stuck on the 2 minute drill, but you can’t dismiss how poorly it was managed when talking about overall clock management.
We were up by 10, but as a lifelong fan that has watched the team sit on leads, that never works out for this team. The Lee Evans TD could have happened for 99 yards with that play call. I’m not saying that would have happened, but it is a staple of Ryan’s defenses to give up the big play once in a while. If football was a math problem, then yes it would be logical that we would rip off 1 or w more 30+ yard runs, but in reality, that is very unlikely. How many runs do the Jets have that are that long all season? And I don’t think running it 3 downs into an 8 or 9 man front then punting is a recipe for victory even with a 10 point lead.
B-Schott has to learn that in a game like that a punt is not a bad thing. Those are the games you win ugly and dont get cute….
Instead of winning ugly we lost horribly and are in a desperate game on the road in Oakland to basically try and save this season
I dont care what the stats say or what the pass/run ratio was …..his understanding of the flow of the game especially in that weather was bad. plain and simple
Brendan,
Listen I respect your point about the Lee Evans TD but the bottom line is that even if we weren’t breaking off 30-40 yard runs, anyone that watched game, saw that we were very capable of running 10 yard runs, even with 8 or 9 in the box. Running another 20 times would have easily put up another field goal or two and totally won that game for us. As a team, we cannot be giving games away (which is really what we did). One thing is to force them to win, force them to throw more Lee Evans TD (take your chances with a backup QB and basically one of the worst statistical offenses in the the league right now). Another thing is to go away from what is working and giving them the game, and making stupid penalties, and playing on our toes. They did everything in their power to give us the game and we did everything in ours to give them the game. I guess we were better in one thing that game…
Led – I mentioned the passes to RBs, most of these were screens. One worked really well, but as I mentioned, short passing is tough against a stacked box.
Nam – I accept that. My point is that with the box stacked it’s very much boom or bust, mostly bust, and it’s difficult to sustain drives that way. Also that the run game was dominant, but not as much as the numbers suggest and that it was a product of the fact that the Bills were trying to make the Jets have to throw downfield. To some extent at least.
As to staring down WR’s…..every youbg QB does it…..some vets still do it.
This is where Sanchez needs to be protected early on. We are asking this kid to make throws and read defenses consistently and he’s struggling.
To say that B-Schott’s gameplan was excellent is absurd…. Youre missing Smith and Cotchery and gashing the Bills 8 man front with long runs and are calling pass plays in a tight game in those conditions?
I like B-Schott but his job on this team is to control the young QB/offense and let the defense win games like that. He did anything but that on Sunday
Bent, you don’t kickoff in overtime. Period.
dmsarad,
You do when there’s 25 mph winds going the length of the field and you need field position to win.
As a rule, no, but when both teams are failing to move the ball and the wind is worth another 10-15 yards, you should. They would have won if they did, I’m sure.
“If football was a math problem, then yes it would be logical that we would rip off 1 or w more 30+ yard runs, but in reality, that is very unlikely. How many runs do the Jets have that are that long all season?”
Think you need to look at how they were performing against the Bills on this paticular Sunday—and it was damn well. Each game is it’s own chess match. What they did against previous teams should not be the deciding factor when it comes to “game” management or play calling. In football or any other sport what you did in the past or will do in the future is irrelavant—one game and one opponent at a time.
If you read the full article its kind of contradictory on Schottenheimer, IMO. The author does make mention of bad play personnel being on the field as well as poor play setup in the interception situations.
Im trying to work on something for my site looking at the QBs in the system. One of the things I noticed with Sanchez in comparison to what is supposed to be “the model” with Ryan and Flacco is how often the Jets throw on 3rd and shorter situations compared to those other two. Sanchez is on pace to obliterate what they were asked to do in those spots. Im not sure if there is a problem with doing that or not, but it does seem (and in fairness we all mainly remember the bad plays so it may not be nearly as often as we think) that in many of those spots the Jets go 4 wide, shotgun, empty backfield. In a 3rd and 3 or 4 the offense has a tremendous advantage and the defense a disadvantage in that the offense can call run or pass and has an entire field to work with, but only needs a few yards to move the chains. By going empty they eliminate the threat of run which allows teams to either try to tee off on the QB or drop their linebackers into zone. and take away alot of the area that will pick up the first down. They end up putting the offense at a disadvantage with this playcalls.
Thats a really really good point Jason…
Also goes along the lines of why the Wildcat is a great option there two. Just adds more things for them to think about. Bottom line, 3rd and 3 or 4 need to be owned by the offense like you said.
NamVet,
I saw how they were performing against the bills. Under 4 YPC (when removing the 3 runs of over 30 yards). They would get 6 yards, 8 yards, then a no gain, 1 yard, and force a 3rd and long. It’s the inconsistency that is killing this team. Not playcalling.
I’m gonna have to say that I agree with Drew and NJets here.
The stats that Bent brought up has definitely made me rethink my stance on Schotty a bit. However, as I watched the game, it really did seem like more times than not, when we ran the ball, we consistently got 5-6 yards.
Then to see that kind of running game get interrupted by not 1, not 2, but 5 interceptions just makes fans got absolutely crazy.
Was it perception over reality?
NJNets – you said “Another thing is to go away from what is working and giving them the game…”.
But that is not true, they did not “go away from” what was working, they’d stayed very consistent at a 60/40 ratio throughout the game. You wanted them to run more, that is not the same as going away from what they were doing.
I don’t see any guarantee that running more would have given us a few more field goals, I think it just as likely that they get stuffed, though I would certainly prefer a punt to an INT. I didn’t mind so much the amount of times that they threw but would like to have seen safer throws as the game went on considering the conditions and how Sanchez was playing. I also couldn’t believe how many times he threw it when the receiver was double or triple covered. Does that mean someone else was open or at least in single coverage? Definitely agree that they should have kicked off in OT. They start every game that way when they win the toss. It was a tougher decision with Jenkins out but with the wind blowing the way it was, throw convention (always receive in OT) out the window and play to your strong suit, which was the D. Ryan is still learning, too. I wonder if Callahan, Westhoff, etc get in his ear at all in situations like that?
How can anyone say you dont take the ball in OT?
Even with Leon struggling on KO’s there is a good chance he gets a decent KO and we win that game…..which we should have anyway.
Now if you would have told me we would have 2 idiots start fighting in OT and push us back to the 15 yrd line and then when we are in FG range have another idiot hold for no reason that pushes us out of FG range than maybe….
But we were in position to win the game regardless of all of that nonsesne and Sabchez/B-Schott so not taking theball in OT is out of the question……
AKA, I see your point but we were getting stupid penalties all game, shooting ourselves continually in the foot. Although in hindsight you are right that we were in FG range until Hartstock’s penalty, the FGs are much harder in that direction so I still see the logic of relying on the one phase of your team that had played well that day and kicking off so that we have the wind with us and they the opposite. But as I said above, tough decision.
I think that we can all agree—that there were a lot of problems in the Bills game including 14 penalties. I don’t think that correcting just one problem would have changed the results. As I have said after our previous losses—I hope that they learn from the mistakes and correct them. Oakland has now become a very critical game and is not going to be easy. Although my initial prediction was 8-8, my hope is always to at least make the playoffs and that is still possible.
60/40 is the ratio I want to see in a game played under normal conditions….
Let alone a 35 mph wind with a struggling rookie as we are running well against a beaten defense and Buffalo’s offense that was having trouble scoring points.
IMO we could have run the ball 100% in the 2nd half. Would have anyone been complaining that we ran the ball too much after Sanchez 1st half?
Smashmouth Football and Big OL play in cold weather at home is what we expected…..We just didnt get it on Sunday. it really not that hard to see
I can’t beleive people are harping on the coaching decisions. They lost the game strictly due to bad on-field execution in the passsing game and special teams, and dumb penalties. Considering how close they still came to winning this game, you take away almost any of those on-field mistakes, and the Jets walk away with a 4-2 record.
are-tee
Its up to the caoches to make better decisions when the passing game and our rookie QB are playing awful in hurricane type winds
AKA wrote: “IMO we could have run the ball 100% in the 2nd half. Would have anyone been complaining that we ran the ball too much after Sanchez 1st half?”
I fully believe that somewhere around 95% of the posters on this blog would be complaining if we ran the 100% of the time (or even 90%) in the 2nd half and lost.
I sure would because if we lost we should not have been doing it. Much in the same way we should not have been passing as much as we did—-because we know for sure that did not work.
I feel its important to qualify all of these comments with the fact that the opposition was the Buffalo Bills.
And that we are ranked 30th in the NFL in passing and 2nd in rushing.
My point is it would have been very difficult for us to lose if we just kept running the ball and asked our defesnse to win the game…..instead of our rookie QB to make throws into the wind when it was clear he was struggling.
When your playing that team at home and roll a 300 spot on the ground (even more inpressive that Sanchez was awful) and still throw the ball 30 times….something is wrong
Come on Drew. 100% of the time? The Bills offense is out of sync, but still has guys that could rip on off (like Lee Evans did) and two RB’s who own us for whatever reason. Getting complacent and running the ball knowing they’d stack the box is asking for 3 and outs. Enough 3 and outs and they work their way into better field position and make things happen. It wasn’t the playcalls. It was inconsistency with the rushing attack and poor execution with the passing attack. Couple that with penalties killing our momentum all game, and the special teams blunders and those all add up to a loss. Not Schotty calling 5 or 10 too many pass plays.
I am totally with AKA….Drew on this one.
We could of literally gone to 100% run and would of had a better outcome than what we had. Its just straight up counter intuitive to have 300 yards rushing and 6 interceptions. Those two stats have likely never been accumulated together by any team in any other game in history (if someone could confirm that somehow, that’d be cool). There is nothing wrong with getting complacent with an already dominating running game when you are winning by 10.
Guys…. you get my point. 30 pass attempts based on the weather, the QB and the way we were running the ball is just dumb.