Outsider’s View: Miami Dolphins Week 8
I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.
(As a heads up, negative percentages are good on defense, bad on offense & specials)
Pass Offense: 14.1% (18th)
Rush Offense: 25.2% (4th)
Analysis:What was so frustrating about the first game in the series this year was that the Jets knew what it would take to stop the Dolphins, and they couldn’t do it anyway. Paired with the coming of age of Chad Henne on the Monday Night spotlight, the Jets defense looked impotent around this offense.
Last time the Jets played the Dolphins, we predicted that “[f]or the Dolphins to win this matchup, Chad Henne is going to have to rise to the occasion and beat the Jets through the air” and that was true, but only a half-truth as it turned out. Still the runaway performance that the Jets defense saw from the Dolphins isn’t a full picture of this team, which seems to fluctuate wildly in performances on offense and defense alike. What we do know, is that this offense is ruthlessly effective in running the ball, but with Henne now starting, still a middling passing game, mostly due to the inexperience of the QB, and some weak personnel at Wide Receiver.
As the Jets saw, the insertion of Chad Henne has invigorated the pass offense since just a few weeks ago when the Jets faced the Dolphins the first time around. Still with Kris Jenkins sidelined and question marks in the middle of the defensive line for the Jets, look for the Dolphins to exploit that with various run packages, as it’s the point where the Jets are the weakest. That means lots of Ronnie Brown, who might not be leading statistical categories, but according to FO has so far been the most efficient runner of the football this season, followed closely by fellow tailback Ricky Williams.
While Calvin Pace looked rusty in his first game back (which came against the Dolphins) and made Gholston look good against the run by comparison, Pace is starting to feel his oats and could be much more of a force on the edge this time around for the Jets against the Dolphins. To stop the running game, the Jets would be wise to play a lot more rotational 4-3 fronts, keeping their fastest surest tackling ends and ILBs on the field as much as possible. The Jets are going to give up chunks of yardage on the ground, so although it’s not Ryan’s favorite way to play, playing bend-don’t-break against the run will have to be an important strategy, since no one on the team can get the same type of penetration that Kris Jenkins could consistently.
Pass Defense: 2.2% (12th)
Rush Defense: -0.4% (22nd)
Analysis: This might be good timing for the Jets to take advantage of a beat up Miami secondary and flagging run defense. Last time around, Mark Sanchez didn’t lose the game for the Jets … that fell squarely on the defense. The Jets offensive staff might feel comfortable opening up the passing game a little more than they did against the Raiders (Sanchez threw just 15 times), but there’s no shame in Sanchez throwing less then 20 times again in the game if the Jets can get the upper-hand on the Dolphins run and pass defenses and keep it that way.
Braylon Edwards had an impressive game against Miami on MNF and with Will Allen out of the lineup, he might be able to do more of the same so look for Sanchez to try and get some balls to Edwards when he’s in single coverage. Still, Sanchez needs to avoid locking on Edwards, especially if Jerricho Cotchery is as ready to go as he’s been telling the press this week that he is. Cotchery should be a big part of the gameplan (if healthy) and Dustin Keller should be able to break some long pass plays against this defense that’s struggled all season to cover Tight Ends. Just last week, Jeremy Shockey had four catches for 105 yards against the Dolphins, I think Keller is a more talented pass-catcher than Shockey is now. So Schottenheimer would be wise to run some of the same type of plays that got Shockey free against this defense for Keller, who needs a little boost in confidence after some quiet games.
This defense is good at stopping runners once they get to the linebacker/safety level, but struggles at the line and especially on the right side of the offensive formation. Look for a large dose of runs to Damien Woody’s side of the formation, along with a number of pulling guard plays from Faneca coming across the formation to lead block for Thomas Jones or Shonn Greene. Jones and Greene might be able to break one or two long runs, but this defense plays well against long gains, so look for the Jets to grind out three to four yards much of the game.
Special Teams: -0.9% (21st)
Analysis: Not a great special team unit, and the Jets got some gimmick plays on it in their first matchup, but don’t look for more of that this time around, I don’t think the Dolphins will sleep on punting and kicking plays this time. The Dolphins struggle on kick returns, so that might be good news for Justin Miller or whoever runs back kicks against the Dolphins.
14 Responses to Outsider’s View: Miami Dolphins Week 8
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Tish says:
Interesting to read that “Keller is a more talented pass-catcher than Shockey is “. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Does Shotty concur with this opinion? No team can win on running alone (unless you play a Raiders/Browns/Bucs every week). Passing is essential even if the team is run oriented. If Keller is so talented, why isn’t he being utilized more frequently, especially when so many WRs were injured? Not to make a comparison, but Brees is usually able to find Shockey or at least call his number among an improved running game and multiple quality receivers.
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Jeff says:
I think the problem Tish is that Sanchez being a young QB tends to focus on his first option more than anything. After time and experience he will be able to look off defenders and get the ball to the 2nd or 3rd read. Keller is actually a better pass catcher than Shockey, but he has been underutilized so far.
On a side note I highly doubt that Brown and Williams are the best runners in the NFL. Plays run in the option/Wildcat are different than regular running formations. They have an extra up front to boot.
Hopefully our D shows up and pummels their QB and shuts down the Wildfish formation
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brian311 says:
i think red zone efficiency is going to be key to this game. i expect both teams to be able to move the ball. our D needs to tighten up and be stout inside the RZ. the dolphins cannot be allowed to walk in the endzone via the wildcat.
on offense, i see some opportunities for deep balls. with 2 rookie CBs, the dolphins are going to have to roll safety help over the top. if they dont respect edwards or the clown, we need to be running play action, 2-3 man routes, with max protection. on the other side, if they keep safeties deep to help on the pass, we should be able to run all day
im keeping my fingers crossed for JCo and Brad Smith to be healthy.
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If you noticed it Tish, what was said is that Shockey is a worse tight end than Dustin Keller is at the present time. Not all time…
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Matt says:
Highly recommend checking out the new KSK post on Rex. If you can read through it without wanting to tackle someone you have no soul.
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freshAShell says:
im pretty sure the weather is going to be bad on sunday. not looking good for Sanchez
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Eddie DiGio says:
I hope J Co is ready to go after his two game absence, he is just so reliable and tough, and is really Sanchez’s favorite receiver. Sanchez has looked remarkably better when he is in the lineup…
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david harris says:
isnt there some huge storm coming in from denver?
all i can say is that if it snows everything will be equal. their running will take a hit more than our running will bc they rely so much more on quick movements, same can be said if it rains. our runners are better equiped to handle bad weather. our qb is less equipted than henne bc henne played in mich where the weather always seems to be unpredictably. usually we have a terrible game if the weather is bad but i feel like it would benefit us more if it was worse weather.
anyone else hoping for a big snow storm?
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Wise Old Jet Fan says:
The most confident prediction I have ever made in my life, Its not going to snow on Sunday. Cloudy, 62 degrees.
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“I think Keller is a more talented pass-catcher than Shockey is now”.
Not the Dustin Keller I have been watching.
Shockey, 26 catches 304 yds, 3 TD’s.
Keller, 15 catches, 1 TD.His route running has been poor and his hands questionable.
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MIA is 3rd and 8th against the run in total yards allowed and yards per carry (3.7).
I am aware FO does their own mystical statistical analysis that is superior to traditional rankings, but find it difficult to believe they could be ranked 22nd against the run using any formula.
For the record, REX’s super physical defense is ranked 24th and 16th (4.2ypc) in the same categories.
This will be the litmus test for he Jets running offense.
Will find out early how many of those 600 yards rushing were due to the fact that BUF (32nd and last ypc carry allowed) and OAK (28th ypc) just plain suck against the run.
I believe the JETs need to stick with what’s working, pounding the backs between the tackles, even in the face of some resistance. Do not panic and abandon the run the first time TJ gets stuffed. Keep pounding away and they will soften later in the game.
There should be some Schott’s open downfield off play action, similar to last MIA game.
But Edwards will be double covered this time and they do not have to worry about Leon so Cotch and Keller (see discussion above) will need to get open (and of course the QB needs to find them).
Big test, if they pass we can keep dreaming of a playoff run with at least the thought of a big game in NE for the divisional lead.
If they fail they are just another team, playing out the string as a fringe playoff contender.
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James in TN says:
I think if nothing else, not hearing Marc Anthony “sing” the national anthem will help. The deck was stacked in Miami from Obama to the ref calling the first penalty in Spanish. Hopefully at home we will come out on top .
Jets 24
Dolphin Dancers13Go JETS!!!!!!
Did anyone else notice that the Jets seemed far more effective in 3-4 fronts than in 4-3 fronts against the Raiders?
I don’t have a breakdown of the numebrs, but I’d love to see one if anyone has it.
It was just something that I noticed, and it surprised me, since Jinx wasn’t clogging up the middle.