Accuscore Assigns A Percentage to Jets Playoff Hopes
If you were to assign a percentage of how likely it is for the Jets to make the playoffs at this point, where would you go? ESPN and Accuscore took the bye week as a chance to play out the scenario, and we’re got the answer and our reaction after the jump …
With the Jets off this week, AccuScore took a look at their chances to win the division and to make the playoffs. The computer spat out some unfavorable numbers.
The numbers, of course, will fluctuate. But based on 10,000 simulations of how the season will unfold after Week 8, AccuScore determined the Jets have a 4 percent chance to take the division and a 13 percent shot to reach the postseason.
The Jets’ projected record was 8-8.
To me, I determine getting to the playoffs in football as my watermark for a successful season. Before the season started, and before they went 3-0 we thought that the Jets would have fallen somewhere in the 7-9 — 9-7 range, and statistically now that’s where it seems like they’ll end up. Now, statistics can’t account for teams rallying, pulling together, quarterbacks maturing, and head coaches gaining sudden in-game awareness that so far they don’t seem to possess, so anything’s still possible.
But 13% to make the playoffs, that seems about right. The problem as we laid out earlier this week is that a lot of teams above them would have to fall off pretty drastically while the Jets put together an impressive run of at least six, potentially seven wins for thet team to sneak out a wildcard spot. That said, the teams proven that they can play well in all three phases, but they just have failed to do so at the same time. If the Jets can get firing on all cylinders, they could make a move, but for now, don’t go holding your breath.
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What was the % of teams making the playoffs after a 3-0 start???
% means nothing.
If we play consistently we can win 10 games and have a shot. If we continue to play inconsistent, turn the ball over and keep getting penalized at the worst times…. we will win 7 – 8 games.
If we lose to Jacksonville after the bye the NE game means nothing and our season is all but over.
If we beat Jacksonville we walk into NE with a chance to change out entire season and outlook.
The last 2 out of the last 3 years teams came from nowhere to make the playoffs and do damage. The Cardinals last year and the Giants a few years back. Who knows what those % were at week 8/9 of their seasons.
It ain’t over till it’s over, it’s been done before. We all know this team has the TALENT to make the playoffs. Can they put it all together, we shall see.
PS… these computer scoring things are a joke anyway
I know exactly whats going to happen. The Jets will dominate Jacksonville, get all of our hopes up, play tough against New England, and lose in a heart breaker.
To me this season will be successful if Sanchez develops into a big time QB and is ready to lead this team deep in the playoffs next year.
In the Wild Card race, two of the teams, Texans and Bengals, above us we have or potentially can have a tiebreaker over. On the otherhand, the Fins, who are .5 game behind us, own the tiebreaker versus us. This weekend’s games, Mia@NE, Bal@Cin, Hou@Indy, SD@NYG and Pit@Den will go quite a ways in detemining where we stand.
Drew sums up the second half chances far more realistically then some mathematical model that fluctuates with the same inconsistencies as the typical fan. Making the playoffs is certainly an appropriate goal, but after 40 years I would like to set a higher standard of being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They certainly are not. The rookie coach and QB excuse notwithstanding, this team has sufficient personnel to be a contender. The author of: “Excuses are for losers” was not just being provocative, he was being honest.
good point – huge games this weekend
out of those 5 games, it is very likely that the jets get a favorable outcome from at least 3 of them. i see the pats, cincy, indy, NYG and denver winning. we would be tied with balt and SD. houston would be .5 game ahead and pitt would be 1 game up.
what would compltely shaft us is if houston won
I think the Jets are well positioned to make a good run in the playoffs next season. This season I see 9-7 or 8-8, which will not get there. Let Mark and Rex make their rookie growing mistakes and lets hope for a healthy Jenks and Leon next season.
Looking closer at the numbers they ran, the Bengals are 34% to win the wild card, while we are 9% — so that final game could change a lot (evens records and gives us tie-breaker). Ravens are 37% wild card at 4-3 and play the Bengals this week. And the Chargers, also at 4-3, are 37% to get the wild card. At 9%, only the Dolphins (10%) are given much of a shot at all (5% for Jags who we must beat anyway, 1% to Bills), so while 13% overall and 9% for wild card looks low, according to Accuscore, it’s not too shabby considering only three teams are given higher odds.
But as Drew says, it’s just week 8 and means little, other than the teams with 0% are probably eliminated.
And Drew — I know your question was rhetorical but Accuscore actually had the Cardinals at 81% to win the division after weeks 8 and 9, because they were up so much. They had the Jets at just 13% to make it last year (right before wins at NE and Tenn)
You know the AFC is kind of interesting, 16 teams, 6 make the playoffs and 4 have already been eliminated (Browns, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs)
So, now it’s 6 spots divided between 12 teams. I’d say *only* the colts are a virtual lock at this stage – with their schedule, only something colossal like losing Manning could de-rail them (even so, I would still expect them to go 4-5 and get a spot)
Of the rest of the teams in the AFC, there’s only two games between the 2nd best record (Denver) and the “in contention” (Bills 3-5)
I really think the playoff race is going to tighten significantly, unless some teams outperform during difficult portions of their schedule (Patriots or Denver go 4-1 in their next 5 games, for example).
Just MHO
Sorry, my bad, there’s 3 games between Denver and the Bills – I wrestled with putting the Bills “in contention” but I suppose they’re only a 3 game win streak away from getting back in the playoff picture, and to be fair, the Bills have been surprisingly competitive (close @ NE, winning @Jets)
Greg “SEC” 130
Thank you for acknowledging my question was rhetorical…
I think everyone understands where this team stands. The 2 crushing losses will probably hurt this team from making the playoffs….but I have seen way too many teams in recent history (with less talen) get on a roll and next thing you know thery are in the 2nd round of the playoffs.
This bye week is absolutely huge for this team. I am not saying to make a major playoff push but to get an identity of what we are. A pretender with a load coach and aggresive defense…. or an actual team that dosent beat itself
The playoffs would be great and, at least, a 9-7 record would give this team a winning record as a springboard to next season. But, more than anything, the education of Mark Sanchez is the most important thing for the Jets in the second half. It will be the first time Mark plays in frigid temperatures with biting winds, he’ll play on the road at NE and Indy, two of the perennial elite AFC teams, and he may have the pressure of a playoff run. If Mark improves to the point where that completion percentage gets near 60% and he tosses fewer INTs to TDs, then we have 2010 to look forward to because the second season for promising rookies is usually a quantum leap.
Hopefully Indy wraps up their division and #1 seed by week 16 so they can rest peyton for the jets game. Regardless of what everyone else does ahead of us if we go 7-1 we should definately make the playoffs although NE went 11-5 last year and missed it
The best way for the Jets to be in the playoffs is for all Jets fans PRAY the ‘Phins beat the Pats !!!
jets should all be looking at the yankees victory parade how much would us jets fans love to have that moment cmon guys lets do ti we can if arizona could do it we can also do it but we must win get angry and channel it through your play on the field dont talk be like mark bavaro lock mean and keep everybody confused famous words of the godfarther dont let them know what you are thinking,
The computer probably has an 80-90 % chance of the Pats making the playoffs or winning the division. If the Jets should beet the Pat’s what would their chances be?
If we go 11-5, we WILL make the playoffs because of the teams we’d be competing with, we’d hold the tiebreak advantage over Cincy and Houston.
When you look at the schedule, if the Jets can beat New England, anything is possible. We will probably be playing an Indy team in Week 16 that has clinched a playoff spot, BTW.
The thing you can go to sleep with is that we CAN win every game we are in.
i think that the D should play well enough to keep us in every game down the stretch (even at Indy – revis will shut down wayne and it will just be a matter of covering dallas clark). hopefully we get lito and stick back to 100% and the D gets even better
the questions will be can we continue to run the ball effectively and play mistake-free football? most of that will be on sanchez – but as we saw last week, we cant fumble, or have special teams lose the game for us. we have to cut down on the penalties. if we can play mistake free football, we should at least have a chance against every team we play
When I was a kid, the ‘73 team, or was it the ‘74 team, won their last 6 games to go from 1-7 to 7-7. Anything is possible.
The Jets have to avoid any more injuries if they want to compete for a playoff spot. They have no depth whatsoever at OL, TE, WR, QB, DL, and LB. All you need to know about the depth at LB is that the backups are Gholston, Westerman, Izzo, and Fowler. Not exactly a dream team.
At this point little victories first, but above all else please Rex with the division championship this year!!!!
It ain’t over till the fat guy tears his ACL.
What’s that?
Damn.
I actually think the Jets best shot is to take the division. I am going to root for Miami over NE this weekend & then we will more or less control our own destiny. I’m betting the Fish are not good enough to go on a run.
Miami’s schedule the rest of the way is absurdly easy. I may be rooting for NE to knock Miami’s playoffs hopes out and then hope they can’t beat us, Indy and NO.
Miami has the Pats twice & the Steelers(Week 17!). So they split with Pats, lose to the the Steelers & drop 1 to another .500 team.
This is going to be tough any way we slice it, but I want the Jets to be in control in December.
We are only 1 game out of the wildcard….
5-3 is the wildcard at this point. Evereryone take a deep breath.
Im the type of person who harps on things, and I will never get over the fact that we lost that Buffalo game or last weeks game to Miami. We should be 6-2 and that’s that. It really breaks my heart. #1 rush offense, #2 defense, and we’re 4-4? That is unheard of!!!!
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Ok here’s a breakdown of the situation. The legitimate teams we are battling with for the wildcard spot are:
Baltimore
San Diego
Houston
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
The largest lead over us is by Pittsburgh (1.5 games)
Baltimore has 3 tough divisional games (the games against teams not from Cleveland) remaining on the schedule. They also play Indy, Green Bay, and Chicago. They could easily lose 3 games which would result in a final record of 10-6 or worse.
San Diego has about 4 easy wins left on their schedule (KC, CLE, TEN, WSH) but they also play the 3 good teams in the NFC East + Cincy + Denver once more. They get swept by Denver. 10-6 or 9-7.
Houston’s next 4 games are against divisional opponents. They can lose twice to Indy. They also end the season with Miami and New England. 9-7.
Pittsburgh also has 3 tough divisional games and plays Denver and Green Bay. I can’t see them losing more than 3 of these games. 11-5.
Cincinnati has Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the next two weeks. Later they have MIN, SD, and us. Say they lose 3 of those before our game, if we can win they will be 10-6 and we will have the tiebreaker.
For us this means that 10-6 is the minimum that we can expect to make the playoffs. Which means winning all four games we are expected to win (JAX, TB, BUF, CAR) and winning two of the ones we are not (NE, ATL, IND, CIN). I’d like to add that I’m being really optimistic and I don’t expect us to win all of the games in which we are favored b/c we can’t seem to get up for those games.
Anyway, now we know to root against Cincy and Baltimore.
Drew, you may have corrected my name, but you slipped on calling Rex loud, calling him a load instead. Well done. :)
13% to make the playoffs? Come on, what kind of statistical computer is this? I am sure the computer did not “know” they were Jet’s statistics. My computer says 2% (and that’s because Raiders, Chiefs and Titans have already been eliminated otherwise it would be 0%). To draft day…go, go, Jets!
hank/naples,, I’m sorry but the best way to make the playoffs is for the Dolphins to lose to the Pats. WW85 points out that the Dolphins would not go on a run.
After this game they play:
Tampa, Carolina, Bills, NE, Jags, Titans, Texans, Pitts
They can’t win 6 of those games, losing to NE and Steelers (both games at home)? They can go 7-1 even, for 11 wins, but even 6-2 would mean 10-6 if they beat the Pats, and there is no way we are going to be 11-5.
Now, if the Pats beat the Fins, and knock them to 3-5, it makes them 9-7 if they aren’t demoralized, and even though the Pats go to 6-2, they travel to Indy after that and play us after that. THAT is controlling our own destiny a lot more than hoping the Fins win and then lose to inferior teams.
You want the Pats to beat Miami and then lose at Indy (which is likely anyway), then lose to us.
Then we beat Jags and are 5-4, and playing the Pats for.. ahem.. sole possession of first place, believe it or not.
Now, will we win that game in Foxboro? Probably not. But this is the scenario that works best for the division (unless you want to concede the division to Miami and try to pass NE in the WC, which is not what I think you are thinking).
*correction: (unless you want to concede the division to NE and try to pass Miami in the WC, which is not what I think you are thinking).
BTW, I think the Titans with Vince Young at QB the rest of the way are going to be tough opponent. They’re going to knock off a few teams.
greg sec 130:
It sounds like you are more worried about the ‘Phins that the Pats. Don’t.
I’m referring to the Jets getting a chance to win the Div.
The only chance, straight forward, is if the Dolphins beat the Pats at least once. This way if the Jets are tied, they beat the Pats because of head to head.
do we really want to make the playoffs as an 8-8 team? i’d rather get a better draft pick then be a mediocre group that gets creamed in the 1st round on the road.
look the jets can make the playoffs… they need the dolphins to beat the pats in 1 or both games they play them, and the jets need to win against the pats at NE to take the division lead. we have games whihc are gimmes but we’ve had games the same way in the frst half which we blew. this team needs to show that its time to buckle upa nd become the team thats destined for a championship… hopeflly this season. i may be overly optimistic but i want to believe this years jets can win the superbowl. this team looks so similar to me to the superbowl winning giants. their team was doing well on all sections but not playing togethor, then it just clicked int he second half of the season and in the playoffs. ts better to play hot than to play wel and end cold. lets hope the jets get it togethor and become a cohesive unit for once this season.
JR- I hear ya, I think about all the stupid mistakes and penalties in those games and it drives me F’in crazy. We all got spoiled by the potential of Sanchez and Rex’s new Defense. There was bound to be some growing pains. Just so damn close to 6-2…
We get a win in Jacksonville then take it one game at a time…I dont care if its .001 of a percent chance, Im going down with this team and this coach until the bitter freakin end. I think they can do it…
If everyone is in agreement that Sanchez and Rex improving is a major goal of this year, then Schotty must be let go during the bye.
Callahan replaces him and Rex gets 8 games where his hands aren’t tied to be ready for next year.
THAT is our best chance at long term success. Schotty is a joke.
That’s why they play the games..damn computers ull be the death of me. 10 000 simulations? do computers have heart? do they take heart into account? hmmm…playoff baby…lol HEART screw the comp!!!!
you guys are worried to much about miami if ginn dosen’t return those two kicks foe touchdowns we beat them easy what worries me is why did we wait for them to take the lead then giving our offense the go ahead and you see what they did jets offense is better then what the coaches think i would just let the offense go out and play to evaluate them i say it sanchez is more like a slinger hes going to win alot of games and score a lot this team could be like the 99 rams but the offense cord. dont know what to do with all these weapons leon /edwards/cotcthery/clowney/jones/keller/smith/ this team has alot of talent the defense is set remember belicheck was a defense coach and hes done preety good ryan is right fit not shooty callahan was head coach and offensive cord. with that sb raiders and he took them in his first year yeah wqe know what happen he faced gruden but you cant change the playbook in two weeks
What’s truly needed right now, is someone to throw an arm around Bassett, who’s been sounding awfully dire the last couple of weeks, and give the Big Guy a hug. Hang in there, Bassett, you’re the emotional core for this community, so stay strong — not optimistically dopey, no — but strong, nonetheless. We’ve got another 8 games to get through. And I, for one, would like to enjoy the ride.
Now. As to the play-off possibilities. The only non-variable:
Some team or two among that pack of teams we’re in will get very hot. Some teams will fall off a table, like we did last year.
The rest will muddle along, with a win-one, lose-one cha-cha.
The problem currently is, at this juncture no one has any way of telling which team will go in which direction. We’ve seen to this point, that they all have roughly the same talent level, skill sets and functioning coaching system. From here on in, it’s the intangibles — heart, guts, grit, desire, foxhole mentality, cohesion, discipline, etc. Some teams in that pack will be a step slower at this point. Some will find it within to take a step further.
This is how most years play out. We watch these games every year to find out who is whom. Which team goes in which direction?
So, throw away those dopey computers. Then sit back and watch the people on the field and on the sidelines.
Enjoy the ride, and argue with your friends…
fonzie, my response to you was the division. If the Fins beat the Pats once they will be 9-7, maybe 10-6. Look at their schedule and find a 3rd loss, assuming the Steelers beat them in Miami. We are not going 11-5 if the Fins are 10-6, but if the Pats beat the Fins twice the Fins would be behind us, even if they win the other games, while the Pats would have a much tougher schedule, and two losses to us in the tie-breaker.
I think you are rooting based on your fear of the Pats being a better team than Miami, and you may be right — maybe the Pats at Indy is a W for them and Miami at Tampa is a loss for Miami — but I am not underestimating the Dolphins like you seem to be. Beating NE puts Miami in sole possession of first place with a VERY easy schedule, and a tie-break on us