BGA: Part One – Sanchez
Disclaimer: All analysis was taken from the TV coverage, so at times it may have been hard to identify players or what was happening, because I was limited by their footage. However, I have tried to be as accurate as possible and apologize for any inaccuracies or omissions (which I am happy to correct).
After the jump, I break down each play where Mark Sanchez dropped back to pass in Thursday night’s game. There is much more to come over the weekend…
Mark Sanchez completed 7 of 15 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown on Thursday night, in just over one half of action before going down with a knee injury. Although those are far from gaudy numbers, his 92.1 QB rating was his fourth best of the season and could have been much higher, if not for some bad luck. Here’s the full breakdown:
- On a first and ten, the Jets lined up with four wide receivers, one of whom was Dustin Keller lined up in the slot. With nothing open downfield, Sanchez checked down to Keller, who was immediately tackled for a five yard loss. This would be Keller’s only catch of the game, as he (as we will see when I analyze the offensive line play later) surprisingly stayed in to block a lot. They may have been setting the Bills up for him to leak out and get downfield later on, but then Clemens’ insertion into the game necessitated a more conservative gameplan. Credit the Bills LBs/safeties too, as they shut him down for the second time this season.
- On third and four, Sanchez had time, but threw at the feet on Danny Woodhead who had lined up in the backfield and did not turn round to look at the ball in time. It’s hard to say who was at fault here, but they obviously got their wires crossed. Had the pass been thrown a beat later when Danny was ready for it, there was a window to hit him for the first down, but it wouldn’t have been easy. Hitting Jericho Cotchery over the middle might have been a better option, although the official was kind of in the way.
- On first and ten, Woody couldn’t find anyone to block in pass protection and a pass rusher was unaccounted for, but Sanchez backpedalled and threw over the onrushing lineman to Cotchery on the right side and he ran for a first down. This wasn’t easy, but Sanchez didn’t panic, put terrific touch on the pass and the ball placement was perfect, hitting Cotchery on the run in space.
- On a second and ten in the redzone, the Jets lined up with a running back, an H-back and three wideouts. Thomas Jones picked up the blitz, but Sanchez felt pressure from the strongside and missed a wide open Cotchery with a throw to the endzone. This should have been a touchdown, but he appeared to rush the throw more than he needed to and, although he saw Cotchery and made the right read, it was an inaccurate pass.
- On the next play, Sanchez was sacked as there was nobody open downfield and the Jets had to settle for a field goal. This was a coverage sack, as Faneca’s man was initially blocked but then got free to make the play. Sanchez could have thrown the ball away sooner, but at least he held onto the ball.
- On the next drive, Braylon Edwards was wide open deep downfield, but dropped a long pass by Sanchez at the Buffalo thirty yard line. Braylon says he lost sight of the ball in the lights of the Rogers Centre roof, which does appear to be the case. Could the ball have been thrown any better? It’s hard to say. If you were to nitpick, you could say that it would have been easier to catch over the inside shoulder and maybe if it wasn’t thrown so high it would have been easier to track, but it did hit him (literally) in stride. And, yes, that is the correct Canadian spelling of “Center” (sic).
- On third and four, the Jets lined up with 4 wide receivers, including one in motion. The Jets picked up the blitz well, with Faneca picking up Schobel on a stunt. Sanchez threw over the middle, but a diving Edwards couldn’t come up with it. This wasn’t an easy catch, but it appears the reason it didn’t work was that Edwards was expecting the ball to already be in the air, so that he caught it as soon as he came out of his break. However, Sanchez didn’t throw until Edwards had turned and threw it ahead of him, which appears to be why he seemed to slow down moving over the middle and couldn’t dive for the ball properly.
- On second and six, Sanchez was sacked again, as Faneca was beaten by Kyle Williams. Sanchez really didn’t stand a chance on this play.
- On third and 15, the Jets lined up with two backs in the backfield. Sanchez appeared to be looking for Woodhead in the flat, but then spotted an open Braylon Edwards downfield and he made a leaping grab for the first down. This was a great read, but he almost overthrew the receiver and was bailed out by a tremendous catch.
- On first and ten, Sanchez was under pressure when Jones whiffed on a blitz pickup. His long pass to David Clowney down the sideline was out of bounds. Clowney was covered on the play, so Sanchez really just threw this one away, which was smart.
- On second and five in the redzone, the Jets got good protection and Sanchez rolled out and threw to Clowney in the endzone, where he was unable to make a diving catch. Clowney did well to improvise and get open, but was unable to maintain control of the catch after getting both feet down inbounds. The throw by Sanchez was virtually perfect – in the only place where the receiver could get it and safely out of the reach of the defensive player. It was similar to Cassel-to-Moss or Roethlisberger-to-Holmes from last year. He also had a similar play to Stuckey in the Pats game earlier in the year.
- On the next play, the Jets lined up with 3 wideouts, Ben Hartsock and Danny Woodhead. With good protection, Sanchez threw a quick out to Cotchery beyond the first down marker, but it was broken up by Donte Whitner. Although this was incomplete, it was again put in a place where only the receiver had a chance to make a play on it. The only way it could have been completed was if it got there a shade sooner, which may have been possible, but Sanchez has been burned by rushing that throw already this year.
- On second and ten, the Jets lined up in an offset I formation and Sanchez threw a comebacker to Edwards off a three step drop. He was immediately tackled for a five yard gain. Timing and ball placement were good, with the throw to his back shoulder. This type of play could become their bread and butter as they develop chemistry.
- On first and ten from a shotgun, Sanchez threw down the seam to Cotchery off a three step drop. Cotchery, with a step on the defender, caught the ball in stride and ran for a 45 yard gain. Again, the timing and ball placement were perfect. The throw was released at the exact moment that Cotchery was shoulder-to-shoulder with the DB as he overtook him.
- On second and five in the redzone, the Jets lined up with three wideouts. Edwards wasn’t Sanchez’ first option, but he sat down in the middle of the zone and Sanchez bought some time with his feet, throwing high over the middle as he moved to his left. Edwards made the catch beyond the marker, shrugged off a tackler and dove into the endzone for what proved to effectively be the winning touchdown. It was all Braylon in terms of getting the ball in the endzone, but Sanchez showed good poise in completing the pass and again made an accurate throw.
- Into the second half, the Jets lined up with three wide receivers and Sanchez threw a pass to Cotchery, who was in motion, in the flat. He was immediately cut down for a big loss. Why didn’t the play work? Two reasons. First, I think Dustin Keller blocked the wrong guy. Second, the pass was slightly behind Cotchery, which meant his momentum was not heading upfield when he caught it. The reason for this was that Sanchez simply didn’t have an angle because Aaron Schobel tried to speed rush on the outside. At least Sanchez saw him and adjusted the pass accordingly, because this was similar to his interceptions against the Jags a few weeks ago and the Ravens in preseason. This may have been Sanchez’ most important pass of the night.
- His final pass of the night was a throw away after he retreated to the endzone to avoid pressure from Woody’s man. This was another encouraging decision, because for a moment, the play looked set to unfold like the one where he fumbled in the endzone against the Saints.
Conclusions: I thought Sanchez had one of his best games so far and was getting into a nice rhythm at the end of the second half. Let’s hope this injury doesn’t slow his progress.
Up next: A look at the Jets’ pass rush…
10 Responses to BGA: Part One – Sanchez
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Kirk the Jerk says:
I truly find these breakdowns to be the best part of the blog. keep it up!
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Nice post. After Thursday’s game any inkling of wanting Clemens to play is now dead and gone….
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Shamik says:
Excellent breakdown of the game. Really drives home the point that Sanchez is beginning to click and is making better decisions. Hopefully he is able to play at full speed next week.
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Bent — excellent analysis — curious as to what his rating would have been if the passes to Edwards and Clowney both went for TDs.
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Bent says:
“curious as to what his rating would have been if the passes to Edwards and Clowney both went for TDs.”
The Edwards one would have been an 84 yard TD and the Clowney one would have been a 13 yard TD, so that would make his stats 9-14-201-3TD. (Note: He had one more incompletion on the play after the Clowney drive that obviously wouldn’t have happened).
9-14-201-3TD translates to a 147.3 rating.
Had he connected on the 8 yard TD pass to Jerricho Cotchery in the first quarter as well, he’d have been 10-14-209-4TD. That translates to a 153.3 rating.
Looking at it from another perspective, let’s imagine he threw a pick to Schobel on that screen pass on his penultimate throw. He would have been 6-13-108-1TD-1int at that point…which translates to a rating of 68.8. Also, he would never have injured himself later on in that series. Depending on how the rest of the game had played out, we could be talking about another disappointing afternoon statistically, despite the fact that, in the first half, he play undeniably well.
That’s enough “what if”s though! Where we stand is that Sanchez played encouragingly and Clemens didn’t, so now we wait and see if Sanchez can go next weekend.
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geoff says:
sorry im tired, you lost me at FOUR wide recievers, that in itself is, well just crap. ill re read tomorrow.
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Bent — thanks for the calculations — I was focusing only on the Edwards/Clowney plays because those were well thrown balls that could/should have been touchdowns — like you, I had the “feeling” that he played very well but the stats in the newspaper don’t tell the whole story in this case.
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bubbybrister/shovelpass says:
heh,heh,heh…Bent said ‘ penultimate ‘ !
Great work Bent, as always,
…and I love the subtle “enrichment of all of our collective vocabularies”on this blog. -
vajet says:
thanks for the great analysis!
Great analysis.