The Amazing Playoff Race
What the heck is happening in the AFC and in particular the AFC East? After yesterday’s unexpected loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots have cracked the door just that much wider for other teams.
AFC East Remaining Schedule — Division Winner
7-5 New England’s Schedule: Carolina (5-7), @ Buffalo (4-8), Jacksonville (7-5), @ Houston (5-7)
Analysis: New England has four, very winnable games down the stretch. Jacksonville might be the toughest on the schedule, but the Patriots will get them at home. With no tough road games left, it’s still within reason to see them go undefeated over the next month, but consider that the team has probably had their roughest patch losing to the Colts, Saints and Dolphins within a month.
6-6 Miami Dolphins Schedule: @ Jacksonville (7-5), @ Tennessee (5-7), Houston (5-7), Pittsburgh (6-6)
Analysis: The next two games for the Dolphins will determine how much a fly in the ointment they are for the other AFC East teams. Jacksonville is playing better football now than they did at the start of the season, and Tennessee has just lost their first game (to the Colts) yesterday since Vince Young has become the quarterback. Pittsburgh is on a serious slide, but if they can snap out of it for the remainder of the season, that last game for the Dolphins could very well make or break one of those team’s playoff chances. As a Jets fan, you want to continue to see the Steelers continue to slide, only to win that last game.
6-6 New York Jets Schedule: @ Tampa Bay (1-11), Atlanta (6-6), @ Indianapolis (12-0), Cincinnati (9-3)
Analysis: Simply put, the Jets have to win out to keep any shot at the playoffs. With tiebreaker losses to the Dolphins and Pats (on head to head and divisional record respectively) 9-7 will not get it done for the Jets to have a shot to win the division.
Here’s where it gets a little more ugly. Here’s a list of all the teams in the AFC playoff hunt right now. With the Colts clinched, Cincinnati on the verge (but with two very losable games in the next two weeks), and quite a race in the West, it still comes down to the Jets winning out, and then getting lucky with other teams winning or losing some very strategic games.
12-0 Indianapolis: Denver, @ Jacksonville, New York Jets, @ Buffalo
9-3 Cincinnati: @ Minnesota, @ San Diego, Kansas City, @ New York Jets
9-3 San Diego Schedule: @ Dallas, Cincinnati, @ Tennessee, Washington
8-4 Denver Schedule: @ Indianapolis, Oakland, @ Philadelphia, Kansas City
7-5 Patriots: Carolina, @ Buffalo, Jacksonville, @ Houston
7-5 Jacksonville Schedule: Miami, Indianapolis, @ New England, @ Cleveland
6-5 Baltimore Schedule: @ Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, @ Pittsburgh, @ Oakland
6-6 Pittsburgh Schedule: @ Cleveland, Green Bay, Baltimore, @ Miami
6-6 Dolphins: @ Jaguars; @ Titans; Texans; Steelers.
6-6 Jets: @ Tampa Bay, Atlanta; @ Indianapolis, Cincinnati
119 Responses to The Amazing Playoff Race
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brian311 says:
yup – the 1st buffalo game is really going to kill us
great write up TJB
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in terms of the WC, the jets are going to need to be concerned with baltimore, denver and pitt.
the dolphins will certainly lose one of their remaining games, and i think Jax will lose 2 (miami, indy, at pats). that would put both with 7 losses and out of the WC race.
things would look a lot better for the jets if baltimore loses tonight at green bay. they would most likely lost one of their remaining 4 games. if the jets could keep on winning, it would come down to denver, pitt and the jets for 2 WC spots
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Every week teams lose winnable games. I am not going to keep harping on the tough losses we have had this year.
We need to get hot right now and win games. Lets get to 10 wins and see what happens
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Everyone,
1) Ravens must lose tonight for what I am going to say to work
2) Ravens play the Steelers so that will eliminate one of those 2 teams.
3) Miami plays Piittsburgh the final week. If Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, then one of these 2 teams will be eliminated here
4) Jacksonville needs to lose twice for us. They play NE, Mia, Ind, Cle..If they beat Miami this week, they’ll eliminate Miami and they still have 2 losable games on their schedule. -
Bent says: “Lets get to 10 wins and see what happens”
Even that is a step too far.
Let’s get to 7 wins on Sunday and THEN see what happens.
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TJBfan (twitter @infresco4) says:
I agree with Drew, the steelers and patriots just lost winnable games this week. Lets also not forget that going into the season we could have easily gone 0-4 facing the Texans, Patriots, Titans and Saints.
So lets just end the season on a high note with 10 wins and if the rest falls in place great. Also correct me if I’m wrong but as of right now we will enter week 13 ranked number 1 in rushing and defense!
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Deven says:
Yea the buffalo was a killer, or the Miami games. I think the one that might hurt the worst is Jax cuz if they beat Miami next week we may be left out in the cold due to a tiebreaker. We just have to route for Miami to win as much as it sucks next week, and continue to hope NE loose as usual. Green Bay has to win tonight for all of this too, Baltimore has tie breakers too. We do however have tie breaker against pitt. so if they win out and we do we get the spot and they play Miami last week of the season. We are not dead yet. Life Support is still letting us breathe
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The only way we don’t make the playoffs by winning out is the following (Assuming the Ravens lose tonight which we have to hope):
1) The Patriots go 3-1 or better to end the season
AND
2) Jacksonville go 3-1 or better
AND
3) Denver going 3-1
and/or
4) One of these teams win out – Pit, Bal, MiaPitt vs Miami
Pitt vs Bal
Jax vs Mia
Jax vs NE
We will gain ground every week on teams ahead of us as long as we win,We will be gaining
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NorCal says:
Bent has is right (again), we just need to win THIS week. Nothing else matters.
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greg sec 130 says:
Agreed — forget looking back at the tough losses. The reality is that we’ve only lost one game to a bad team, and we threw six INTs. Oakland just beat Cincy and Pittsburgh. Should we let them have those games back too?
Simply looking ahead, that Bills loss only means we have no more room for error. Instead of needing to win 3 of 4, we need all 4. Fine. The question now is can NE lose two games, or can Balt/Pitts and Jax lose two more for the wild card. Three is not happening.
I think we are a week early with the permutations. Beat the Bucs, see what else transpires, and go from there. Maybe NE loses to Carolina. Maybe a wild card team or two lose their QB. Until next week, it’s a little too much to take in now realistically.
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ronnie — if we win out, it will be the Jax vs NE game that will determine which scoreboard we watch week 17 (NE at Houston for division or Jax + other teams for WC).
But again, I am taking this week off thinking about this stuff. (starting NOW)
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greg,
If Miami beat Jax this week, the Jax have another tough game with Indy so they can be out of it by the time they play NE.
Our one saving grace is that each team ahead of us play each other one way or another (JAX, NE, MIA, PIT, BAL) -
subwayfare says:
Interesting scenarios and I’m happy, as a long time Jet fan, to even be in the playoff conversation in the 4th quarter of the season. However, right now we just have to hope that Sanchez wins the interception battle vs Freeman, who threw 5 himself, yesterday.
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swizzle81 says:
The Jets winning out is a big “if”. What has Sanchez shown in the last few weeks, or the season for that matter, that makes any clear thinking Jet fan that he can perform well down the stretch. He is still prone to the Favre like INT every game and its not a matter of if it is going to happen, but when. The Jets will be lucky to finish 9-7, what a shame because the D has been really good of late.
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As usual, I’m with Bent on this –
With the way this team has given away games to supposedly lesser opponents, let’s just focus on beating the Bucs this week, who have generally been playing better — remember, they upset the Packers in Tampa less than a month ago. If the Jets lose this week, then none of this matters at all …
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The thing is, we had a horrible stretch and have now beaten two lousy teams. I hope that we can beat better teams but as of now, that’s still a question. Our defense is playing really good, except when they play bad, which unfortunately has happened a couple of times at the end of games when the other team is driving for the win. Our offense has played much better the last two games, albeit very conservatively, which might not be enough against better teams.
All that being said, being a die hard jet fan I will be right there until the end, I just want to see us play well against a team that has a decent record.
Before everyone starts pounding on me, I don’t think this is SOJ mentality at all. I am not expecting us to lose, I am simple stating reality: that we haven’t shown we can play with a really good team in a month and a half at least and I want to see that before I get too excited. Hopefully these last few weeks (and this coming Sunday) are just what we need to get some confidence and swagger back that we had earlier in the year. -
Tom says:
Before we start worrying about who needs to lose lets beat Tampa first.
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Sanchez yet to be confirmed to play. First thing we need to focus on is beating TB and Baltimore slipping up tonight couldn’t hurt
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Also agree with subwayfare, I am very happy to be in the playoff conversation. Nothing worse than the season being over (for all intents and purposes) by week 12.
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Jets = Misery says:
I think our best chance is at wildcard. We may have to leapfrog more teams, but NE has a much easier schedule than any of those teams.
We want Indy to beat Denver and Jacksonville. That will help us in two ways, Indy will have clinched home field going into their game with us, and Denver and Jacksonville will be that much closer. This is not a stretch.
We want Cincinnati to have already firmed up their seed, whatever it happens to be, by the time they play us. Whether we want them to beat or lost to San Diego depends on how both teams’ games go this week (San Diego vs. Dallas, Cincinnati vs. Minnesota). I think we should be Bengals fans through the next three weeks.
San Diego. San Diego needs to lose to the Bengals, and be trailing them by a game going into the last game of the season.
Denver. Denver will probably go 10-6 or 11-5, but it is vital that they lose to Indy, so that the Colts have nothing to play for when they play us (as mentioned above).
New England. New England hosed us by losing to Miami, because now we need Miami to lose another game when they’re going to be playing a lot of people whom we need to lose. They can redeem themselves by handing Jacksonville one of two necessary losses.
Jacksonville. Jacksonville needs to lose two games. Now they could do us a favor by beating Miami this week, and eliminating them, but it might be cutting it a close if we wait and hope that they lose to Indy and New England. This is especially true since Jacksonville’s last game comes against the Browns. I say go Miami for this week, because the Dolphins simply won’t run the table, and we need the Jaguars to lose.
Baltimore. Baltimore needs to lose two games. If they lose tonight then they only need to lose one. Perhaps the other one can come from Pittsburgh late? Also, it’s important to note that we have a conference record tiebreaker over the Steelers, so we’d prefer to finish tied with them than with the Ravens.
Pittsburgh. If the Steelers could lose to the Packers late in the season, then finish by beating the Ravens and the Dolphins, then that would be gold. But even if they win out, we hold the tiebreaker over them, and we’d need to be at that 10-6 mark to be relevant anyway.
Miami. If Miami could beat the Jags and then lose a few times, that would be sufficient.
Jets. If we don’t win out, none of the other 93 things matter.
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Bent says:
“Our defense is playing really good, except when they play bad”
That sums up the season!
What about this scenario: The Jets win out (or, failing that, at least win on the last day of the season to go 9-7) but other results keep the Jets out of the playoffs. Maybe that would actually be a better scenario that sneaking in and getting knocked out by another team in the first round. End the season on a high, slightly better draft pick, possibly an easier schedule etc.
If the Jets do sneak in with a win over the Bengals on the last game of the season, then they’d probably face the Bengals in the playoffs the following week, which is exactly what happened against the Raiders in 2001, when the Jets beat them to make it, but then lost to them the following week.
Still, I’m not thinking past Tampa. Honest!
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StvDoe says:
Win…..stay alive.
Everything else is superfluous.
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ramble914 says:
Off topic, but I’ll ask anyway:
Does anyone else feel we shouls be talking to Charlie Weiss about becoming our OC.
If this has been discussed before, I apologize, as I’ve been away for awhile.
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Mark says:
This late season tease seems to come virtually every year. This is no different. Of course, it remains statistically possible, but highly unlikely that the Jets get in.
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Eddie DiGio says:
Good job Bent, StvDoe, and Drew – we just have to keep winning games.
If we can play within Rex’s vision, we can grind out wins. It might not always be pretty or precise, but it works for the Jets
The Jets may not have all the flash and flair or a precision passing game, but when we play smashmouth on both sides of the ball, the Jets are a team no one wants to play.
Get after Josh Freeman’s ass on Sunday, I bet Rex is telling our boys
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Bent says:
ramble – I’ll direct you to where we’ve discussed this already:
http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/12/02/link-more-on-why-weis-wont-coach-the-jets/
http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/12/02/news-patriots-not-thinking-about-weis-yet/
http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/12/01/weis-gets-the-cold-shoulder/ -
Bent says:
“we just have to keep winning games.”
In other words, we’re going streaking!
Prince will be back later this week for part two. Anyone believe yet?
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Johnny Reefer says:
swizzle show some god damn f’n pride in your team.
your negative energy isn’t helping anything.
Our D is good enough that even with 1 Sanchez pick per game we can pull out wins vs all these teams.
One thing you need to remember, a Rex Ryan Defense always has those few games where they let up plays, but by the final set of games they step it up big time and lead their team. Like last year the ravens where 6 and 5 at one point. Maybe even 5 and 6, i can’t remember. I just remember people where saying they weren’t in it, then the D just shut everyone down. Plus a few big throws by Flacco, which Sanchez is capable of doing( see The Miami games)
I have hope and i’m gonna show the Jet Pride. If we do win out and make the playoffs all you haters better not even watch them play. You cant give up on a team then when they “shock” you, become a fan again.
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People REALLY think that the Colts will rest their team sitting at 14-0 with the Jets and Bills left on their schedule?!
If anything they will play their hardest to make it a blowout so that they can sit their starters early, but they WILL NOT treat this game as an exhibition just because they clinch first seed as so many seem to hope they will.
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Bent says:
“People REALLY think that the Colts will rest their team sitting at 14-0 with the Jets and Bills left on their schedule?!”
I don’t know. I have really thought about it because we have a game this weekend that I’m focusing on.
Hang on…does this make me a “fangini”?
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Brendan says:
TJBfan,
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/11/30/caldwell-going-undefeated-is-secondary/
There is a link. As I said before, Caldwell is going to choose resting his playesr over an undefeated season.
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Haha, fangini, I like that, Bent. Too bad Hank doesn’t log on here when the Jets win or he may have stolen it from you.
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Nah Bent — I would rather get in and be knocked out. Most of why I want to make the playoffs is to get Sanchez playoff experience right away, so next year it’s not another building block.
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Oh and I fully believe we can beat the colts even if they don’t rest their starters.
We can run the ball, and play good D.
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TJBfan – I believe Indy’s HC has already confirmed that as soon as they have clinched #1 seed, they will be resting starters and anyone else banged up. i would expect them to treat week 16 like a preseason game – peyton and the starters get a few series but will ultimately sit
tony dungy has confirmed this as well.
obviously, none of this matters if we dont beat TB this week. TB has 21 turnovers in 11 games. i think that regardless of who our QB is, the D needs to dominate this game. i am confident that rex, with an extra 2 days to prepare, will have the D ready to go
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Oh and for all the Sanchez haters out there.
Look at the other 2 rookie Qbs this year, they also have games with 4+ picks.
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IF THE COLTS DONT REST THEIR PLAYERS WE’LL MAKE SURE WE KNOCK SOMEONE OUT. WE CAN LINE UP BART SCOTT ON A WR IN THE SLOT AND BLITZ HIM.
I’M SURE THE BENGALS WILL SIT SOME OF THEIR PLAYERS ALSO. !
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Johnny Reefer — I love it. It baffles me when fans give up on a team before they are done in hopes of lessening the pain by either trying to feel like they knew something we didn’t and were able to “beat” the disappointment, or try to accept the pain early so it doesn’t hurt later. For me, it still hurts later when they lose the last game, so why make the 5% dream 0%? How does it make you feel better? We all know it’s a long shot. No one will be shocked if we go anything but 6-0 down the stretch. Why not stick with it and have some fun.
I’m not saying we wave pom-poms at a 6-6 team. They are young and growing and have upside, but have also disappointed at times too. Feel free to bash the team when they stink, or handle something improperly, but to jump ship on them is simply unacceptable to me.
That said, I am going back to hibernation regarding playoff permutations until after next week. I assume 10-6 gets in and stand by my assertion that we are one week too early to map out the other teams fighting for a spot ahead of us.
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Rich in Albany says:
“If we win out, if we win out, if we win out…..” ARE YOU CRAZY???? We are 6-6, and have a decent shot at 8-8 and maybe 9-7 with a bit of luck. Absolutely no way we beat Atlanta, Cincy and Peyton. Not all 3. That’s just plain stupid.
But I will tell you guys something. If the Earth tilts the other way on its axis and we happen to end up 10-6 I guarantee that will get us in. But it ain’t happening, we’re not that good. We are going to have to swallow 8-8 and I think that we might have a chance to be pretty good next year.
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Rich, if we can get the next 2, there’s a very good chance that Indy and Cincy will be sitting their players that are hurt. With their QB’s, at most, Manning and Palmer will play the 1st half only.
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Jets-Fan-4-Life says:
Question for anyone who knows…
At this point in time what would it take for the Jets to win the Division? That’s if they win all the remaining games.
I’m asking only because the Jets would have to be extremely lucky to snatch up a wild card spot but I hope it happens!
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Rich,
Atlanta (at home) is a very winnable game. Especially if Turner and Ryan aren’t 100%. Atlanta is giving up 120 yards a game on the ground, so the Jets should be able to pound their smaller front 7.
Colts could have home field wrapped up at 14-0 by the time they play the Jets. Their coach has gone on record saying they value rested players over a perfect season, so he very well may rest guys like Peyton, Wayne and Freeney.
Cincy is a wild card. They should have their division (and #2 seed) locked up by then, but if not then that will be an all-out war (assuming the Jets have hope). Two of the top defenses and running games going head to head. That’s all we can ask for. Meaningful game in week 17.
10-6 likely? Probably not. But realistic? Absolutely.
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Bent says:
greg – Of course, I’d prefer that too, but I’d definitely take the other alternative ahead of a late season swoon.
If there’s a chance, even a slim one, of the Jets making the postseason with a win in the last ever game at the stadium, then it should be an exciting occasion and a fitting way to end things there, even if it proves in vain.
What are the chances of the Jets being mathematically still alive in week 17 if they are only 8-7? I guess they need the Ravens, Pittsburgh and Miami to lose one of the next three and the Jags to lose two. (That’s if Baltimore loses tonight…if not, they must lose two of three). Alternatively NE needs to lose two of three and Miami needs to lose one. Since they all play each other, these scenarios could play out unless one of those teams gets hot and wins 3 straight.
I think if the Jets can win this week, the situation should become a lot clearer, so we should just focus on that.
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JF4L,
To win the division we need to finish one game better than both the Pats and Phins. So whatever our record is (10-6, 9-7) they’ll ahve to be a full game behind (9-7. 8-8)
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Reefer, that must be some good stuff your smoking. Who said I am giving up, the Jets beat two lousy teams in a row and all of a sudden and some people are talking playoffs? One game at a time here, if Sanchez goes this week and has a turnover free gameor even plays decent, I might start believing, but until that happens, then the Jets will finish out of the playoffs.
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Hey Ronnie and Brendan…I love you guys, and I’ll be rooting for them just as hard as you, but let me remind you of one thing. We are talking about the Jets! Questions?
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Bent — it would be the last game at that stadium only if they are trying to clinch the WC. Also, the 5th seed WC could play the 6th WC seed down the line. But more interesting than my nitpicking is the fact that that assuming the Giants don’t get in, it would be possible to not know if the Jets-Bengals game is the final football game at the Meadowlands until after the game ends (if NE game ends later, or other games matter at 4pm)
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I’m starting to wonder if the “Curse” for this team is the stadium!
If so look out next year!!!!
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Rich,
My only questions is why fans such as yourself not just perpetuate the SOJ mentality, but almost seem to embrace it. The ONLY thing that has remained with this team since it’s creation are it’s colors and it’s fans. Owners, coaches, players, GM’s have ALL come and gone, yet this SOJ mentality has yet to leave this team. I doubt the colors have much to do with it, so clearly the only other reason for this tagline are the fans.
Is it that absurd to think the Jets may run the table? In each of the past 5 (or 6, not sure) years a team has come from being below .500 with 5 games remaining to reach the playoffs. So I’m sorry if I’m crazy for believing this could be the Jets, but there’s a lot of season left and anything is possible.
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They beat bad teams, but in the NFL a win is a win, bad team or not. We lost to enough bad teams this yr to know a WIN is a win.
Being Negative is why the Jets have a losing culture. Like i’ve said a million times before, how do you expect the Jets to take pride and win games, when the fan base doesn’t even believe they can, and shows no pride themselves.
You can say they get paid millions of dollars too, but that’s more of a reason for them not to care.
its football, any given sunday, being realistic isn’t something you can do in football, because unreal things happen every week.
I’m sorry if I offended you swizzle, I really am, I’m just so sick of these negative, “same old jet” sayin fans.
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in 02 we were 2-5 and made the playoffs.
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Yeah, just like the Mets.
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*regarding the cursed stadium
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What bad teams have we lost to other than the Bills?
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Ive said on record to many people, that Joe Willy sold his soul to the devil for superbowl 3 and the deal ment we had to have our hearts broken for 40 yrs.
but that was more of a joke.
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Bent
My point to the “lets get to 10 wins” was there is no playoff chance with 9 wins.
I love reading the senarios and all but unless we win out they mean nothing…. and like you said if we dont get #7 ….its over
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Rich,
I don’t buy this SOJ talk either. Over the past 10-12 years, we have been in the upper half of the league in terms of successful seasons.
Not only that, there are many teams that have never even sniffed the superbowl. -
I think Miami is pretty bad, if we didn’t basically give them 2 games they’d be 4-8.
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****, i also believe we should have won every game this year.
2 plays from them all, and we’d be undefeated.
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If Miami is bad, maybe the Patriots CAN lose 3 of 4.
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Reefer?
Gave the Phins 2 games? They ran all over us on MNF?
If they are a bad team what does that make us?
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Bent says:
Drew – If they lose to the Colts and we find out that there’s a slight chance of getting in at 9-7 (which is possible) even if we need four or five other teams to lose their last game, as much as you won’t want to, a small part of you will allow you to believe there’s a chance, just enough to break your heart when it doesn’t happen.
Remember when Herm pulled off a similar feat with the Chiefs? We should bring this guy back as a one-week-only special consultant – he is the master of lucky results elsewhere helping him in week 17. (2002 – NE/Miami, 2004 – Pitt/Buff, 2006 – Half the AFC losing). If those results went against him and Hall never made that miracle kick against the Raiders, he would have never made the playoffs.
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Drew, it makes us a team with a rookie coach and a new defensive system that are now finally clicking. They did run all over us on MNF, but we could have easily won that game.
2 plays here and there and we could be undefeated right now, i know we aren’t but i also look at the glass half full. sorry if you guys think i’m naive, but its just how i think about everything.
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Bent says:
Greg – Good point about possibly hosting a playoff game. I hadn’t considered that, although it’s not very likely.
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But be fair on Miami, they may be 4-6 in games against other teams, but they played Indy and N.O to the wire, almost beating both teams.
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tyrone says:
what the sense in going to playoffs if we cant beat colts 1ST team or Cincy I rather beat there real team to give me hope we could go foward . HEY Jax/ BUF/ miami we did not win they waited to long to make changes so we should play to get better and get ready for next year I want home field advantage and a good team going into playoffs 82 afc lost 86lost div playoff 98 lost last qter and so on …lets put a killer team together and dominate though miracles happen the 2001 pat did it so anything is possible but this team is going to be great with time.
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OK OK FINE!. i just hate miami lol.
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hank/naples says:
swizzle81/Rich:
Nobody, but nobody has been harder on the Jets over the last two seasons than yours trully.
But I can tell you that you are absolutely dead wrong!!
The Jets are a very well conditioned team right now playing lights out defense and outstanding running game. They have problems, you are right, with the biggest problem being the QB, but it finally dawned on Rex to tie Franchez down. With that done, the Jets have shown to be dominant during the last two games and can be so in the future.
The Jets are one QB short from becomming a top 2 or three elite team in the NFL
So relax and enjoy the ride, because like they say, this is football and ” on any given sunday………..
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Reefer?
Listen I drink the kool-aid with the best of them but we didnt give Miami the first game…….thats all I was saying
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alex says:
there is no point to entertain any ideas of playoffs until we win at least next 3 games…..all we did is win a game against a very bad team and even there it came down to the last drive…….how about we start off with something simple as putting a good overall game by all three phases for the first time since week 1.
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Bent
We can bring Herm in as our time-managment guru….He can be Rex’s Dick Curl…..lol
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kd bart says:
Here’s something different. Of the close games that the Jets have loss, Miami(2), Buffalo, Jax, which one do you wish they had won and why?
Looking at the way things stand right now, I wish it were the Jacksonville game. Would allow them to be tied in the division(still lose NE tiebreaker) plus have the upperhand in all of the wildcard tiebreakers(Both Jax and Miami would be a game behind them and they would have the tiebreaker over Jax). A win over Miami would give them a tie for the division but they would still lose the tiebreakers with NE( Division record) and Jax(head to head). A win over Jax would’ve given them the best payoff.
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*hugs hank*
welcome my friend, welcome.
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…..Did Hank just…..wait….he did?…..People stock up on the canned goods the world is ending.
But seriously (and you probably should “Print Screen” this) Hank is right. We are very close as a team. And, as he said, on any given sunday…..
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KD Bart,
Either Phins game since it would mean they didn’t sweep us.
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Rudibager says:
Yes!!!
Even Hank is in on the “Ya Gotta Believe” train!
Come on fellas, let’s take it one win at a time and enjoy every lasting second we have of meaningful football! -
Bent:
Dont think I’ve gone soft because of my previous post , but it needed to be said.
With that done, those “fans” that root for the ‘Phins to win are loco. The must be carefull what they wish for.
If the ‘Phins win out, they have proven, WITH HENNE, that the Jets have ANOTHER team in their division, and you know who it is, that they must contend with for a lon, LONG time to come.
If they do, then LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!!!
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Along the lines of Bent’s last post, I was thinking something similar: that to sneak in and get knocked right out isn’t really worth it. I guess it depends on how we finish up. If we get red hot like the 07 giants or 08 cardinals, then of course it’s worth it. If we somehow win the game like against the raiders in 01 but , then there’s not a lot of reason to believe it would suddenly all fall into place in the playoffs, especially for Sanchez.
Then again, we did get red hot in 02 against the packers and then against Indy in the playoffs and we all know what happened the next week against oakland, so any theory (this one at least) has holes. -
Hey Guys:
Applaouse is not needed, just throw money (ojo)
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After reading the Peter King post on the main page, I figure now is as good a time as any to whip this out. It’s one of my favorite “inspirational speeches” of all time, gets me fired up, and puts me immediately in a good mood.
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steviek says:
you guys are making me dizzy…
but one question –
if we beat TB (i’m more confident than others, the extra rest & they too have a rookie qb who just threw 5 int’s)…
should we be rooting for Jacksonville or Miami on Sunday or is either outcome pretty much equal?
i’m thinking Miami right?
(ps. Jack is 5-1 at home and 2-4 on the road). -
Brendan,
Great speech…..
I would have to put Favre’s final speech before he pooped the bed against Miami up there also. That was the most inspired I have been in years…..lol
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I still say we table this for next monday — there are just way too many permutations with four games left to deal with. There are seven teams in the mix for a wildcard and they all have four games left, figuring some playing against each other makes for over 500 different scenarios. I’m sure the Jets can make the playoffs in about 100-300 or so of them, if they win out, maybe 10-20 if they win 9, and probably none if they win 8. Obviously some scenarios are more likely than others (NE vs Panthers isn’t 50-50).
Next week that number dies down to under 200 scenarios, and that is much more manageable to put thru some software and figure out.
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Lysol says:
How about the scenario where we win out and end up playing the bengals two weeks in a row.
Anyways let’s go packers!!!
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cmonleon says:
i just heard that matt ryan is gonna be out for the next 3 weeks everything is shaping up for us to choke one more time this season
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Here is a great site to play around with.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/jetsmig.html
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/jetswhatif.htmlRight now the Jets have a 6% chance at the playoffs (4% division and 2% WC). My 5% estimation above wasn’t so far off!
If the Panthers beat the Pats on Sunday, the Jets move to 11% (9% division).
Very cool site.
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Here is an interesting thing from that site:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/falconseliminate.html
The Falcons can be eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday. Ryan would sit, etc etc
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reality jet fan says:
We better beat the yucaneers!
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WW85 says:
Our Defense is good enough to beat the Colts. I dont want to beat the Colts B team. Let’s beeat the starters & earn som friggin respect. It’s SOJ mentality to hope for a team’s backups.
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OK, now I found some software that allows you to toggle between who wins what games, from 0% to 100%, and putting the Jets at 100% for all four games gives them a 62% chance at the postseason.
Of course, that is with every other game at 50%.
I can change the slam dunks to 95% (games vs Detroit, etc) and adjust this week’s games any way you like.
Suggestions?
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They Chose Me says:
I feel the same way as some of you, that those games they lost to BUF and MIA “SHOULD” have won— but SHOULD is a dangerous word–
PIT SHOULD have won yesterday and beat CHI and KC, the Pats SHOULD have beat MIA, jacksonville SHOULD have beat Seattle and SF, Denver should have beat washington.
Just gotta survive now— they can beat any of the 4 teams left– just hate having to win 6 in a row, the odds of every game going smoothly are near zero
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frustratedjetfan says:
Odds against the Jets making the playoffs are about 100 to 1, not impossible, but ain’t gonna happen. If we didn’t take the middle of the season off to read press clippings it would’ve been very different. It took way too long for Tanny & Woody to tell (and give Rex) the go-ahead to take some of Schotty’s offensive autonomy away.
If Miamai makes the playoffs either as a Division winner or Wildcard, they should send us a belated Christmas gift. They were dead before they played us and we were nice enough to give them 2 games.
Ever the fool, I’m still rooting but having been a fan since they drafted Namath, I’m sooooo tired of playing the “what if” game. I say win out, go 10-6, take your chances, look in the mirror AND LEARN so we won’t have to go through this next year.
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dmazz says:
Can you imagine if this is the 1st weekend of playoffs?
Could this be the 1st time in the history of the NFL that 2 teams played back to back weeks in different stadiums?
NYJ @ Cincinnati
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Bent says:
No, I think it’s happened before a few times.
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EnoughTalk says:
rusty sanchez said “we should be 8-4 or even 9-3″ and others with the should have – could have….
What does that even mean – you are what your records says you are & what is says is that you are a mediocre team and oyu should start planning for 2010… Miami crushed the JETs season and it’s now 3 in a row for the FINS.
The season is over and done with!!
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EnoughTalk,
Actually, the Jets’ season isn’t “crushed”, seeing how they still have a meaningful December to play. And in all likelyhood the Phins are going to be golfing in January so why are you touting them. Oh and prior to the Phins every-so-dominating 3 in a row, was the Jets winning 8 of 9. So add those 3 wins to the one you had and the Jets still have twice as many wins than the Phins in the past 6 years. Oh, and the Jets lead the all-time series by 4 games.
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dave b says:
Some people seem to think that our “saving grace” is having teams that are in front of us playing each other. It’s actually the opposite: it’s the nail in our coffin. Because these teams play each other, one of them has to win! If it were set up a little more fortuitously, it would be advantageous, but as it stands, it’s NOT.
There’s a website called playoffstatus.com It gives mathematical probabilities of playoff hopes. We’re sitting at a 2% chance, up from like a 1% two weeks ago.
As I’ve said before, our only chance is winning the division. Root against pats and phins, and that’s it. We need Pats to go 2-2, phins to go at least 3-1, and for us to win out. The wild card is an absurd probability.
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m eazii says:
Lets beat the bucs this sunday…lets dominate! I have faith we can run the table the way defense is playing….the playoffs is a possibility but its 1 game at a time!!! Lets go jets!!!!
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Latinlawyer says:
Guys…lets just go week to week. If we bet Tampa we will be 7-6 and still alive. Then we can see how the other teams do. We need to root for Green Bay tonight.
if GB wins that blows the AFC race wide open.
One week at a time…
The Jets can beat every team out there…. #1 d and #1 rushing attack…
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David Harris Fan says:
We just have to worry about ourselves. IF we run the table and that’s a big IF, we will probably make the playoffs, whether by wild card or division. However we have to win our games then worry about what other teams do. We really need a Green Bay win tonight, but it’s not the end of the world if they don’t. Let’s beat Tampa and see where things go from there.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!
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Andrew Weiss says:
First, I want to be the team that they talk about near the end of the season and they say, “I wouldn’t want to play those guys.”
As for the playoff scenarios, allowing for the ‘bent caveat,’ our goal has to be to bring everyone back to the pack. The Pats, however, kill us head to head bec they split with the Dolphins and prob will beat the Bills a second time. The Broncos also kill us and they’ve got 2 easy games to get to 10-6. Therefore, our best interests lie in rooting for the Patriots and Broncos to win out. There is no good scenario for us to win the first playoff spot. Denver’s in the catbird seat.
So, it’s all a question of the second wild card spot. Our best chace there, assuming the Jags lose 2 and the Fins and Steelers one, is Balt no worse than 10-6 after the Pitt game and Cincy losing 2 of the next 3 (likely) going into the final with the Jets. Baltimore would win that tie breaker which would put our final game with Cincy for the last playoff spot.
I promised myself I wouldn’t do this.
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chris philly jets fan says:
My projected AFC standings following season:
1.) COLTS 15-1
2.) CHARGERS 12-4
3.) BENGALS 11-5
4.) PATRIOTS 11-5
5.) BRONCOS 10-6
6.) JETS 10-6BALTIMORE 9-7
PITTSBURGH 9-7
JAX 8-8
MIAMI 7-9Take it for what it is, but I’ve been over the scenario a million times, and think it would work well for the Jets if the Colts rested players, and we all know how the last game of season at home for a playoff berth would go.
Not sure who would be 3 and 4 between Patriots and Bengals, but for all intents and purposes those 4 are my division winners. Say what you want about looking ahead, but were fans, were supposed to look ahead, as long as the players aren’t, were in good shape. -
david harris says:
ravens suggs and reed are out tn. rogers should have a field day. hopefully that puts them at 6-6 as well.
pats can lose to teh texans, especially if the wc is still in reach for a 9-7 team and the texans have something left to play for. pats can also lose to the bills, who have a good defense and also an offense who can pound on that bad ne defense.
miami can lsoe 1 or even 2 games
jax can lose 1 or 2 games
pitt is sliding they can lose multiple games
baltimore is sliding they can lose multiple games
hopefully indy has a loss by the time we play them so they play their bench for part of the game. and the same goes for cincy.
we have to hope for a lot of things to happen.
but right now all we should be worried about is the 1-11 bucaneers.
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Tell em Johnny Reefer’- We got nothing to lose man, everyone thinks we’re s#*t, just go for it!!!
Oh yes Bent, We’re going streaking!!!!
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Actually we dont Indy to have a loss by the time we play them because they play Denver and Jacksonville – 2 teams ahead of us.
btw, its 10-0 GreenBay -
About to be 10 or 17 to 0 before the half!!! Lets go packers!
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Casey says:
Big Packer win for the Jetties, lets take care of business against Tampa.
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HANK DID IT!!!!!!! A FAIR POST ABOUT THE JETS!!!!!!
ITS ALL COMING TOGETHER, LETS GO STREAKING!!!!!
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michael says:
My guess is that it comes down to a tiebreaker of 9-7 teams. So even if the Jets are in that, they probably don’t get it.
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The wild card is an absurd probability? Come on. The Bills and Raiders are still alive for the playoffs with 8 losses. THAT is an absurd probability. The Jets can get a home playoff game at 8-8, if NE loses all four and Miami only beats NE. THAT is an absurd probability.
Winning out is improbable, but if we do, we have a better chance at the wildcard.
Using my software, if the Jets win all four games, and the other games are weighted by 75% for good teams to beat bad teams and 50% on the rest, Jets have a 29% at the division, and 49% at the wild card.
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Anyone, tell me if any of these scenarios for these five teams are absurd :
Miami loses to Houston and Tenn (beats Jacksonville and Pittsburgh)
Pittsburgh loses to Miami in week 17 (beats Browns, Packers, Ravens)
Texans lose to Pats week 17 (beat Seahwaks, Rams and Dolphins)
Baltimore loses to Steelers and Bears (beats Lions and Raiders)
Jacksonville loses to Dolphins, Colts, Pats (beat Browns)If the above happens, the Jets are the wild card team at 9-7.
There are more permutations for that, and countless for 10-6.
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A lot of those scenarios overlapped above, it wasn’t as much as it appears.
this really blows cause we should be 8-4 or even 9-3 and sittin pretty but instead we gotta win out and hope for a alot of help…worst case scenairio we dont make the playoffs cause of a stupid tie breaker