The Rundown: Are the Heavens Opening?
Yesterday Rex Ryan confessed that there’s a little bit of schadenfeude that comes with this time of the season, especially when your team is 6-6 and scratching for the playoffs is just focusing on the game ahead, not what other teams are doing.
Sure, a few teams in the AFC playoff mix lost and helped improve the Jets’ chances, but Ryan isn’t concerned about all that, right?
“All I’m worried about is this next game that we play,” Ryan said Monday. “That’s where the entire focus is – as far as anybody knows.”
Then came a laugh and an admission.
“It was like, “Whoa!’ ” Ryan said, his true feelings bursting out. “To think that I wasn’t cheering for the Oakland Raiders against Pittsburgh, OK, I’ll admit it, I was cheering for Oakland. Tonight, as much as I love the Ravens and all the people there, I’ll be cheering for Green Bay. It’s that time of year.”
Yep, when every loss counts and your playoff status can improve while you’re sitting home watching games on TV.
“I was watching games yesterday and I saw that New England lost,” right tackle Damien Woody said. “Pittsburgh lost and hopefully Baltimore loses. Things are really falling our way for us, but first and foremost, we’ve got to handle our business and keep winning ballgames. If we do that, I think good things will happen for us.”
After last night, the door opened a little wider for the Jets on account of the Ravens loss on Monday Night.
Green Bay won for the fourth time in a row and improved to 8-4 after Monday night’s game, matching Philadelphia for the last two National Conference playoff berths with the New York Giants one game behind.
Baltimore fell to 6-6, dropping level with Pittsburgh, Miami and the New York Jets with all of them one game behind Jacksonville for the last American Conference playoff spot.
In a mess of a game played in cold conditions, the teams combined for 310 yards in penalties whistled, matching the second-largest total in any game in NFL history.
Now, there’s a number of teams at 6-6 (Baltimore, Miami, NY Jets, Pittsburgh) with just two teams above them for Wildcard spots, Denver at 8-4, while Jacksonville sits at 7-5. The Jets will still need to win out to have a chance, but this was a good weekend to at least keep the games for the Jets competitive for the coming weeks.
60 Responses to The Rundown: Are the Heavens Opening?
-
brian311 says:
denver is pretty much a lock to get to 10 wins. they have tough games at indy and philly, but play oakland and KC at home. going 2-2 down the stretch would get them a WC spot, as they would have only 4 conference losses
that leaves JAX, miami, ravens and jets battling for the last spot. JAX has 3 tough games in a row – miami, indy and at pats. best case they beat miami and lose to indy and the pats.
miami is also very unlikely to run the table with at Jax, at Tenn, houston and pitt remaining.
the ravens and steelers play each other in week 16. so the jets will need whoever wins that game, to lose one mroe game out of their remaining 4 games
-
Harlan Lachman says:
I come at this differently, I don’t think we win a SB this year with the Saints and Colts playing at a high level and other teams (even the Fish) doing more than us, many with less talent.
So what I want (and wanted for those who want to check) to see are meaningful games late in December. I want this team playing real games for as long as possible.
In fact, winning our remaining games and not making the playoffs is fine by me. Who would not have been happy with 10-6 this year? It will prepare us for next year in a big way. I want to see our team using its talents effectively and pissed they did not do so earlier. I want a hungry Jets team.
To be clear, I want to win our next two games because it makes the third game interesting. And so on.
When our team is good enough, for example like the 2007 Pats and this year’s Colts and Saints, it won’t matter what other teams do.
The ’07 Pats did not win their last game and these two teams may not hold the SB Trophy (damned if I will call it a Lombardi) at the end either, but their fans know they are in the playoffs and have as good a shot as anyone.
That is what I want again. The confidence we are in and have every chance of winning it all.
Not there yet!
harlan
-
Brendan says:
Ahem, let us not count out the Steelers. Their secondary may be in shambles, and their o-line as porous as swiss cheese, but I never will count out Big Ben.
They play Jax, Balt, Miami and the Browns.
Basically, every team has a tough road, so whoever comes out on top certainly earned it. The Jets can luck out if Indy wins this week, as it will get the Colts home-field throughout, set the record for consecutive regular season wins in a row, and set the record for most wins in a decade (all of which the team is very aware of). Lose this week and next, and they will be out to steamroll the Jets. If they get those accolades (and by far most importantly, home-field advantage), Caldwell seems pretty set in his decision to rest players.
-
JesusRevis says:
I love that the season is still exciting, but it would take epic collapses by all of these teams for the Jets to make the playoffs. We are pretty much behind everyone in terms of tie-breakers, and we have the hardest schedule. I dont want to sound negative, but it’s a very big long shot.
-
I am with Jesus here…. I am confident we will continue to play well but we have to run the table and then hope for some miracles to happen in the process.
I am just happy the games are fun and have some meaning right now. I would really hate to be talking April draft the first week of December.
-
greg sec 130 says:
“The Jets will still need to win out to have a chance”
Jets winning out makes things extremely easier, but they do not need to win out to have a chance. A bunch of things must play out, but as you’ll see each thing is more likely to happen than not.
At 10-6 it’s simple. Four key games make this happen easiest:
Miami over Jacksonville — most key
Steelers over Ravens — very possible, at Pittsburgh
Miami losing one other game (Houston, Titans, Steelers) — likely
Jacksonville losing one other game (Indy, Pats, Browns) — very likelyThose four happen, we are in at 10-6 (70% wild card, 30% division – based on NE finish).
Add one more loss to each of the five teams (Miami, Pitts, Jax, Houston, Ravens) and we are a wildcard at 9-7. As you’ll see, there is another loss on each of their schedules, except Baltimore (who have been playing poorly).
Miami plays Pittsburgh. So either Miami loses to both Houston and Titans then beats Steelers, or Steelers lose to Green Bay then beat Miami. A lot to hope for but not insane. Then Jaguars lose to both Indy and Pats (very possible). Houston loses to NE and Ravens lose to Lions, Raiders or Bears (the first unlikely of all).
The best part of the 9-7 scenario is that the Steelers v Miami game is week 17, which means that if Miami beats Jacksonville this week, the Jets would be alive in week 17 even if they are 8-7 (tho possibly needing Browns and Raiders to upset Jags and Ravens if they don’t lose their week 15 games, but still, alive).
-
Harlan,
I think that’s all that any of us can ask for (the meaningful December games). But let’s take a second to remember that the Pats went to (and won) a Superbowl with a brand-spankin-new QB as well. They did it on defense and ball-control offense.
Let me be clear about this, I’m not saying I expect this, but just saying….crazy things tend to happen this time of year.
But agree with the overall sentiment that we need to win this week before even dreaming of the playoffs (and the week after…and the week after…and the week after).
-
Brendan, if we win out, you CAN count the Steelers out. We have the tiebreaker over them now that they lost their 5th conference game to the Raiders.
-
JPM says:
Agreed Jesus. It’s a real long shot that every team ahead of us will lose less games than we do, especially considering how inconsistent the team has been this year.
That being said, I’m really happy that we’re even having this conversation. I hate when everyone’s in draft pick mode. Until mathematical elimination occurs, there’s still a chance.
-
Jesus and Drew, not miracles or collapses. See my post above. Miami over Jacksonville, Pittsburgh over Ravens, and Miami losing one of three games and Jcksonville losing to NE or Indy. Very possible. 9-7 is also not out of the realm of possibility now that Ravens lost.
-
Greg, I wish I could, but you know as well as I do we have zero idea how this will shake out. When all is said and done who knows what is going to happen. As it stands right now, the Steelers are at least participating in the 5 team race for a single spot.
If nothing else, this is shaping up to be an AWESOME finish to the season and hopefully makes every week exciting.
-
Oh, of course, Steelers can win out — but that would actually help us, since we own tiebreaker now and that would knock Ravens behind us. Since Jacksonville plays NE and Indy, no team scares me now. I am no longer thinking about help for 10-6. I am now focusing on getting help so we can lose to Indy and still be alive week 17 (just being realistic).
-
Greg,
the chances of the Jets going 4-0, along with the rest of your scenarios playing out, is very much a long shot. That doesnt mean its not possible, but the combination of us winning and other teams losing, is very unlikely.
-
My software is so fun… here is another item for you all.
The Ravens losing was great for us, but at the same time, the Packers won. What does that do for the Jets? Well, if the Saints beat the Falcons on Sunday, that ELIMINATES the Falcons from postseason contention regardless of the result of any other games for the rest of the year!
One team’s motivation down…. two to go….
-
Way to keep the faith in your team JR. We have the #1 defense, the #1 rush attack, both huge factors in December games. We are playing teams that have nothing to play for, and have faced adversity. I see no reason we cannot win the next two games and have a shot at the playoffs in week 17, even if we lose to Indy and need every other team to lose. We don’t need any help to be in it if we beat Indy.
-
Greg,
Maybe I’m missing something, but if Pitt wins the rest of their games, they’ll have the same conference record as if we win out. Then it goes to common opponents. Not sure how this would work since we play Cincy, the play the Phins, and both swept their respective division rivals. Then we both beat Tenn, we beat Oakland (they lost). So would that Oakland game win it for us, or because the “common opponents” (minimum of 4, btw) aren’t identical since we played division rivals twice, would we have to go to the next tiebreaker: strength of victory.
Speaking of strength of victory, we both have the same one. I kid you not. We both have scored 41 more points than we gave up.
Then it’s strength of schedule. Ugh, basically, we need them to not end up with the same record or my head will explode figuring this stuff out.
-
Greg 130 is rocking this thread-I even had to copy and paste his scenario in a JN thread, since he’s smarter than me and all…
-
johnsec.125 says:
if it wasn’t for a ben hartsock holding penalty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-
Yes, the Jets get in due to common opponent since they’d beat the Bengals. Steelers 2-4 (beat Mia and Tenn, losses to Oak, Tenn, Cinn, Cinn), and Jets 3-2 (beat Tenn, Oak, and Cinn, lost to Mia twice)
Common games within the division count an extra time, but even if they didn’t, it’s a wash and Jets would still win it.
-
Yeah, I wasn’t sure if the double-game made the scenario void and moved to the next tiebreaker. That just cleared everything up for me. Thanks, Greg.
-
Greg,
My faith in the Jets is the last think that should ever be in question.
-
SoFlaJets — here is a link to the software I am using. Warning, I am getting nothing done playing with the scenarios.
It says 2008, but it’s up-to-date to last night’s game. Just toggle every game to what you want to happen to that team (Jets winning all 4, or just losing Indy, etc) then click “Forecast” and the bottom tabs show you who gets in.
you can toggle every remaining game to what you expect to happen, or make them 75%, or whatever.
-
Again, the best thing could be that GB’s win eliminates the Falcons with a loss to the Saints on Sunday.
-
StvDoe says:
I understand the allure of the scenarios, but it’s still unimportant. All that matters is that we win, not just in hopes of making the playoffs, but also, as Harlan pointed out, to set us up for next year.
Win games. Improve. Build confidence and continuity.
The goal shouldn’t just be success this year, it should be success in the Ryan/Sanchez era.
-
greg,
I don’t want to beat teams with nothing to play for. If you actually harbor dreams of the Jets making some noise THIS year, then you want to play teams that are trying their damnedest to win.
Think of the Giants loss to NE in week 17, ’07. That game set up the Giants for their Super Bowl run.
As I’ve said, I don’t think it’s about this year anyway. But backing into the playoffs by beating three teams in a row with nothing to play for is hardly the recipe for post season success.
-
I never get caught up in worrying about what has to happen with other teams. If the Jets take care of their business, then they should wind up in the playoffs.
-
If the Jets can win all 4, they have a real good chance, that’s all I care about. If we win all 4 and another of those teams also sweeps and gets in, I will not be unhappy. Nice that a few of them play each other and can bump each other off, though. We have a rookie qb, a rookie HC and assuming we can win Sunday, a chance well into december. That makes it interesting and I wasn’t hoping for much more before the season.
-
I wouldn’t say winning your last six games is ‘backing into the playoffs’, just because you were playing with more at stake then they were, and if you really think it is about next year, you wouldn’t be concerned with playoff success, just the experience it will give our rookie QB.
-
Very simple:
1) Jets win out
2) Jax lose 2
3) Steelers win outAnd we’re in the playoffs
-
It’s simple to write it, but that actually happening, is far from simple.
-
Hah, seriously. That is the furthest thing from simple. But nice to think about for sure.
-
Eddie DiGio says:
Just keep pounding the rock and let Rex and Pettine do what they do best. I think that if this team plays within Rex’s vision we are one of the those teams that NO ONE is going to want to play, that is all I could ask for.
The team has hit some growing pains mid season that really has put our back against the wall. Running the table, and making the playoffs would be a true HERCULEAN EFFORT by Rex.
Hey, we just have to go for it, take care of our own business, and let the chips fall where they may
-
Ryan says:
its amazing theres still a chance but it just frustrates me so much, if we had just won one of those easy games we were supposed to down the stretch this whole thing would be so much easier.
-
Yes, if we didn’t lose just one of those home games we wouldn’t be speculating how much help we would need to make the playoffs, we’d be in first place and have the 5th best record in the AFC. That created this thread. But another way to look at it is, if the Steelers didn’t lose to the Chiefs and Raiders, and the Broncos didn’t lose the Redskins, this would be so much harder.
-
Bent says: Even if the Jets do win out, they don’t control their own destiny. Conclusion: let’s just focus on this week’s game and see where we are this time next week.
Off topic – I don’t know how reliable this information is, but I just heard that Darrelle Revis WAS at Terrell Owens’ party, a sure sign that he’s earned the big guy’s respect after last week’s game.
-
Bent,
I heard the same thing
-
Bent I saw someone post on here about that before. Is there an actual website with the story? (Page 6 or whatever).
-
SackDance99 says:
I’m with Bent. This Sunday’s game is the type that the “SOJ” crowd loves. It’s on the road, against an inferior opponent, starting a rookie QB, with a rookie HC (who makes Rex Ryan look like Lombardi) and a loss would be soul-crushing to Jets Nation. I still remember ripping up my playoff tickets vochure in disgust in 2002 after the Jets lost to the Bears at the University of Illinois stadium. Of course, the Jets ended up winning the division and smoking Indy in a home playoff win (I bought scalped tix). So, you never know.
In any event, I’m not buying into any playoff scenarios unless the Jets go into Indy with an 8-6 record. At that point, win or lose, I would view the season as a positive and look forward to next season with a lot fewer questions.
-
The way I see it, as far as questions go for next season, it really all comes down to Mark Sanchez. It would be nice to add some depth to the d-line, add a WILL, and re-sign Leon Washington and Braylon Edwards, but all that really matters is if Sanchez can take the next step and become a good NFL QB. If Sanchez is the real deal, then the Jets will be very good next year.
-
ramble914 says:
Sanchez is the real deal! I see plenty of talent, and a natural feel for the game. I only see him getting better and better as his career progresses.
-
Bent says:
Brendan – Nope, just here.
-
jon in bk says:
Agreed, Jesus. The good thing is that Sanchez has (imo) shown the potential to be the real deal. The bad thing is he’s so young and inexperienced it could be more realistic to say it’ll be his 3rd year when he’s really ready to win. That’s why getting in the playoffs this year would, I think, be pretty big- just to get the taste of playoff football.
That’s why I’d rather see the Jets go 9-7 and get a playoff game (obviously a real longshot) than see them go 10-6 and be left out. Not that you can be upset about 10-6, but I do think a playoff game would help a lot of people on the team.
Required disclaimer- let’s just win this week- a loss against the Bucs could propel them right back to the mid-season swoon and I wouldn’t put 6-10 out of the equation.
-
BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
Damn! If not for that 2pt. drop by Braylon against Jax….
-
bubby,
No way that was Edwards’ fault. Sanchez lobbed it to him and that allowed the safety to slam him as the ball got there. If Sanchez had zipped the ball in there, he would’ve had an easy catch. If you want to balme somebody, blame Hartsock’s awful hold in OT against the Bills. A hold on a run? He should’ve been cut right after the game.
-
JR,
Year 2 for Sanchez will be huge. Almost every good QB shines in his second year. If he doesn’t, then his 3rd would be make or break. I think that he’ll really improve in year 2, especially with a new OC.
-
Would a new OC really help him? Dont you think continuity is important in the development of a young QB? I know Schotty has a lot of haters around here, but his last 2 seasons have been spent trying to fit Brett Favre in our offense and now tutoring a rookie QB, 2 tasks that are very difficult to succeed in. The way I see it, Schotty isnt going anywhere.
-
With respect to Sanchez, as long as Sanchez is asked to throw within the flow of the game, he will be fine. The coaching staff is at fault for putting way too much of the burden on the kids back. He has already passed Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in terms of pass attempts for the year.
The more he learns how to just move the chains, the better his game will get. The kid has all the tools and is learning the mental aspect of the NFL game.
I came away very impressed after the Buffalo game, a team that made him look horrid, by the way he rebounded. He made good decisions all night, threw some darts that were dropped and had one bad throw.
Rookie QBs dont come ready to wear, you have to develop them and handle with kid gloves, thank God Rex put his boot up Schotty’s behind
-
I think whether Shotty goes or not depends on how much Rex’s getting involved with the O really “stung” him and also if Rex feels that he shouldn’t have had to have told Shotty to be more conservative. I agree that Shotty has had tough sledding with old graybeard and now a rook, but then why didn’t he follow the conservative approach we all thought was the gameplan from the beginning of the season? The buffalo game at least is another win if he doesn’t have sanchez throwing so much.
-
Johnny Reefer says:
Playoffs?
Def a possibility.
I believe it, I believe our D will carry us to the playoffs. It is that good. They just have to play smart and we are in.
I fully believe even if the Colts are at full strength we can beat them if we play smart football. If sanchez didn’t throw a pick 6 and fumble the ball in the endzone we would have beat the saints.
Smart football, and we are in the playoffs.
-
I agree Johnny. Another part of our team I am liking is all the young players taking advantage of their roles. Shonn Greene, Devito, Pouha, Pitoitua, Westerman (just to name a few) are all making strides in their game. Obviously they can’t play too much or else risk being overexposed, but in the limited playing time they’ve all been impressive.
-
I agree too, I have never, felt this good about a the Jets future since i can remember being a fan. The Young players are stepping up, and we have a great group of vets.
It just doesn’t feel like the jets of old anymore.
1st in rushing
1st in defense.It should only get better.
-
Imagine if Big Jenks and Leon weren’t hurt.
Leon is a big reason i think Sanchez has been having troubles, he no longer has Leon to check the ball down too. TJ has decent hands but is no Leon, and Greene can’t catch a cold.
Also, those check downs, Leon breaks for big plays alot, which we have also been missing.
-
Johnny, don’t say that too loudly. The Same ‘Ol Jets squad of death and sorrow is going to come out of the woodwork and attack. But I agree, this clearly is a team moving in the right direction.
-
JR,
Who says firing Schotty has to mean no continuity? Callahan could take the reins and Cavanaugh would still be his QB coach. I think that a better OC would put Sanchez in better passing situations. I’m very surprised by how few passes have gone to the RBs and TEs this season (and a lot of the TE passes are also downfield, not TE delays in the flat) For instance, Flacco tossed over 100 passes, nearly 50%, to his RBs and TEs, while Matty Ice passed primarily to his WRs. With Sanchez’s grand total of 16 Div. I starts, the Flacco example might have been better. Plus, IMO, guys like Matty Ice and Marino come along very infrequently…passing to the WRs is much harder. Those shorter passes are usually the bread and butter of a young QB. Schotty has Sanchez going downfield to his WRs a lot, as much (if not more), than he had Chad and Favre do it.
Reef,
TJ used to be known for his hands, he once had 56 receptions for Chicago. His 9 this season, so far, means he’ll probably have a career low. I just don’t understand that.
-
David Harris Fan says:
My question for everyone is, who are you going to root for next week in the Jaguars, Dolphins game? I’m leaning towards Miami because if Jacksonville wins we”l need them to lose 2 out of the last 3 which is very unlikely. Miami wins and we’ll need to win out and need both Miami and Jacksonville to lose just 1 of the last 3 which is very possible.
-
Bent says:
Jax has their next two games against NE and Indy though.
It’s a toss up.
-
Pingback: Jets and Playoffs? The Path of Least Resistance - The Fifth Down Blog - NYTimes.com
-
WW85 says:
I hate Miami so much I don’t think I can root for them even if it hurts the Jets. I just can’t do it. FROG!
-
flushing boy says:
Best outcome – Jags and Dolphins tie.
Jacksonville needs to loose 2
All other teams need to loose 1
And we need to do nothing but kick a$$ and we are in the playoffs baby!!!!!!!!