I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.

(As a heads up, negative percentages are good on defense, bad on offense & specials)

Pass Offense: 19.3% (15th)
Rush Offense: 2.5% (13th)
Run Blocking: 16th // Pass Protection: 7th
Analysis: The way the Jets are playing on defense these days, they’re going to need some carry-over from some struggling teams like they’ve just played (Panthers, Bills, Bucs) as they transition into some better offenses in the next three weeks.  

Atlanta’s got three very talented players in (when healthy) Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzalez.  Ryan’s having a steady second season, along  with one of the league’s better backs, Michael Turner.  While Roddy White is someone that Revis will likely draw in the passing game, the concern should be more around Tony Gonzalez who has been having another great year as a receiver for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

Kerry Rhodes has matched up well in the past against Gonzalez because they’re both athletic and tall, and between him, Bart Scott and Bryan Thomas, the team should be in good hands should any of the levels need to cover the receiver.  Still, Gonzalez will get his yards, it’s going to be about limiting him and keeping him out of the picture as a safety valve for Ryan as much as possible.  That’s the concern for me from the way Rhodes has been tackling this year.  Watching Dallas Clark’s second TD last night reminded me of the tackling I’ve seen from Rhodes all season.

As far as stopping the run, the Jets are going to be up against a unit that is very statistically similar to their own, so expect the Falcons, to rely heavily on the run, especially if the weather turns snowy.

Pass Defense: 30.3% (29th)
Rush Defense: -9.5% (10th)
Run Blocking: 18th // Sack Rate: 25th

Analysis: This matchup for the Jets reminds me of the Jacksonville game, in which the Jets faced a tough run defense and sagging pass defense.  It was enough to lull the Jets into a false sense of security when it came to passing the ball, where they were clearly going to have to earn their keep against such a stout run defense.  While the Falcons run defense isn’t as good as the Jags is, it’s still good enough that the Jets are going to have to grind their way to a victory against this unit while running the ball, and the team needs to keep Sanchez in makable down and distance to convert on third downs, without allowing him to press the situation and then making mistakes, like Sanchez did in throwing 2 INTs against the Jaguars.  Sanchez’s first INT of the game was on the very first play from scrimmage, and was converted for seven.

If the game is a snowy one, this could make for a very interesting conundrum for the Jets and their passing unit.  Watch to see how Schottenheimer would deal with that weather element from a run-pass perspective, and when the team does pass, what type of plays are they running?

Special Teams: 0.2% (18th)

Analysis: The Falcons have the best kick and coverage unit in the league by a wide margin, so expect the Jets to be set up often deep into their own territory off kicks.

If the defense can do it’s job by keeping the Falcons from converting for new first downs, then the Falcons will be playing into the Jets hands on punts and field goals.  The Falcons are really struggling in their punting, so look for the Jets to try and capitalize as best they can for field position via punts, since it won’t come on kickoffs.  Other than Tampa, the the Falcons have had a rough time with field goal kicking this season, so look to see if misses don’t come into play on a cold, snowy day in New Jersey.