Link: OK, So Now It’s Even MORE Impressive
On the NY Daily News, Cimini made an interesting point about Revis that he picked up from another site.
According to Pro Football Focus, only two corners were thrown at more than Revis in 2009 — the Cards’ Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and the Jaguars’ Derek Cox.
Revis was targeted 111 times, but he allowed only 41 receptions for 425 yards and two TDs. So why throw at Revis? There’s only one explanation. Because he always covers the opponents’ No. 1 receiver, he’s always in the line of fire. QBs are willing to take their chances against Revis because they rely so much on those No. 1 receivers.
While he won’t link away to PFP, we’ll do it for him. Cimini is right in saying that Revis blanketed the WR1, but I think that’s a basic analysis. I think that it also comes into play just exactly how Ryan would employ his safeties with Revis on the WR1.
More often, Ryan dropped one safety into the “46″ role … meaning that there was a safety near the line of scrimmage, generally Eric Smith or Jim Leonhard. That then left one safety (generally Rhodes) high, in a Cover-1.
Rhodes was instructed to move away from the WR1 and open his hips to the WR2 who is generally on the opposite side of the field. This then was the bait for the Ryan-Revis trap. The QB sees the safety moving away, thinks he has a man coverage with no help over the top, which is (generally) a quick and quality read. The truth is that Revis rarely if ever needed that rolling help from the safety.
That’s what makes it a bad read, that he basically makes the stop, or doesn’t allow the receiver a big enough window to catch the ball all by himself.
THAT’S what makes him a Defensive Player of the Year, not tackles or interceptions or passes defensed statistics, it’s the meta-analysis that writers are clearly so lazy & unwilling to do.
Two things to note:
I Think This is Where the Gruffness From Rhodes Comes
In my opinion, he’s nothing more than a decoy in this role. The appearance to casual fans is that he’s looking late to the party, on the wrong side of the field, etc. and in a playmaking drought. Rhodes wants to be the playmaker, which Ryan allowed more towards the last few games of the season. This is a dynamic that I didn’t expect, because I didn’t really factor in moving from the more standard “Cover-2″ to “46″ scheme of the secondary, or the absolute dominance of Revis Island.
The Knock-On Effect Cannot Be Understated
With Revis in this role, covering everyone else makes it that much easier. With the Jets more able to readily cover the second receiver (not that Lito’s play doesn’t hurt) with a rolling safety, a slot guy can get the full attention (with some help) of a nickel corner, the linebackers have more help from the safeties in covering RBs, etc. etc.
21 Responses to Link: OK, So Now It’s Even MORE Impressive
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I think it may have been smarter if we dont pump up Revis that much so that the opposition will keep throwing at him.
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Led says:
This is exactly right. The Jets defense is designed to force QBs to throw to their #1 receiver in single coverage against Revis. Just think about that for a second. It’s mind boggling how good Revis is playing.
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Tivo says:
Ok, ok… I think that’s enough with the Revis got Robbed articles. We all clearly think he should’ve won. This is all just becoming a little redundant now. We have a game to play on Sunday, screw individual awards.
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Chris says:
Tivo.
Couldn’t agree more. At the end of the day, does it really matter? Revis still needs to continue to play well. He’ll still earn major money in the future. He made the Pro Bowl which is an accolade of his terrific season. No records were lost, or set.
In the last 30 Yrs, only 7 winners of the award went on to grab a ring that season. So, how knows- maybe this helps the TEAMS chance.
Huge game Sunday. A game that would be great to win, would really make this season special and possibly setup just a classic classic situation with hosting the Championship game.
Let’s think about how Revis will fare against Jackson. Or, how the pass rush gets to Rivers without the kitchen sink. Or, who will cover gates. Will Sproles and Scifres take over a playoff game again? Can the Jets control the ball for 40min? Is Edwards better served running quick slants? Can Keller tear up the middle again? Will the wildcat be more in the game plan knowing the Chargers’ personnel is more susceptible to it? Can Sanchez repeat his wild card performance? Is TJ rested and ready for a huge game? will our secondary depth hold up and cover these beanstalks??
Come on folks!! We had plenty to complain about this year. But it’s time for a playoff game!!
Anyone going to San Diego, we’ll be in the Hard Rock and sitting in section P8.
Get it done Jets!!!
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If you want to put it in perspective here is how awesome he played. What would be considered WR1 for the Jets opponents caught an average of 65 passes in 111 attempts for 943 yards in the non-Revis games. Thats a compl. % of 58.4% for 14.5 yards per catch.
Against Revis those number 1s only caught 36.9% of their targets and the yard per catch totals dropped to under 10.4. Yards per game for the number 1 fell from 62.9 to 26.5, which is huge loss of production for the opposition.
If Revis played that well against Vincent Jackson the type of day Jackson would have is 2 or 3 receptions for no more than 35 yards on the day. Thats pretty sick.
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Shamik says:
Its just too bad that we aren’t able to add any new players because of this ridiculous CBA rule – we can only improve through the draft or replace outgoing players. Just when we’re about to get up, we get shoved right back down. The f-ing pats have the most cap space to play with AND a buttload of draft picks waiting. Reports of their demise were greatly exaggerated indeed! They probably threw that damn game.
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Biebs says:
I posted this on another site, but I think it’s worth mentioning here too:
I’d argue a season like Revis had is more rare than a season like Woodson had. But those kinds of numbers only go back so far.
The one thing I could find was this. Since Football Outsiders started tracking defensive stats against #1 WRs in 1999, the only seasons for teams against a #1 WR under 40 yards per game were
Green Bay in 2005: 38.3 YPG
Green Bay in 2007: 36.6 YPGThis year, the Jets are giving up 29.4 YPG to #1 WRs.
About 4 Yards per attempt @ #1 WRs. Again, unlike other DBs (including Woodson) that’s always Revis. Every time. (BTW, 2nd was San Diego at 46 Yards Per Game)In spite of all that, I don’t have a real issue with Woodson winning. But, I think the season by Revis is, at the very least, one of the best of the decade, if not the single best cover CB season by a DB in the decade.
1 more telling stat. The Jets allowed 4.08 Yards Per Attempt to #1 receivers. The 2nd lowest # in the decade is 5.48 YPA by Washington in 2004.
Only 6 teams in the decade held opponents under 6 yards per attempt to #1 receivers.
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Brendan says:
Shamik,
They have had spotty draft success at best, so their draft prowess has also been greatly exaggerated. We’re on the rise, they’re on the decline. Our roster is better than theirs and we just need Sanchez to continue to improve to unseat them as AFC East powerhouse.
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Shamik, If we do not advance this weekend we can still sign free agents. All those reports on “final 8″ are really on the “Final 4″. A Final 8 team can sign 1 free agent with a first year cap number of about 5 million and as many as they want for 3.3 million or less. So its not a big deal. And if we win Im not complaining. Ill gladly give up a year of free agency for the championship round. We havent been there since the 1998 season.
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Just to add, 2nd this season are the Bengals at 6.14 YPA
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Regardless of their previous drafting success (or lack thereof) the mere fact that they’re stockpiling draft picks means they have a greater chance of hitting that diamond in the rough (a la Brady). I agree we’re a great up and coming team, but I’d like to have unfettered access to FAs to continue to better our team. I don’t want to get to the championship game and lose and also miss out on the opportunity to truly better our team due to some retarded parity rules.
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MattyMo says:
I am surprised to hear that Revis was thrown to that much relative to other cornerbacks. I always heard people using the argument that Revis did not match Woodson’s INT’s and TDs (which shouldn’t always be used to determine a better CB) because Revis was not thrown to as often. Why do you think Revis did not have more INT’s with the amount of passes thrown his way? Clearly not his hands because I would argue he was one of the best hands of any CB…maybe he could be the third WR also for the JETS!
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Bent says: The analysis of the safeties is spot on. Rhodes is integral to the team. By the way, the same site has Rhodes at the number two safety in the NFL this season by a comfortable margin (see link below), which backs up my feeling that even when he was said to be struggling, his performance was actually pretty good. Thankfully, that midseason dip in form was just a blip. It is very important that they sort out their differences (if there still are any) and try to retain him.
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Matty my guess is Revis does not get as many picks as a guy like Woodson because he does not take the same kind of chances. Woodson plays on a team with an explosive offense that played an extremely easy schedule. You can take chances in games like that. The Jets have no offense and rarely blow teams away. Revis does not have the luxury of taking a stab at a ball and giving up a big play.
Revis had 23 passes defensed and only gave up 2 TDs on the season. Woodson only broke up 8 passes and gave up 5 scores, which is not great. Those are numbers that point to one guy taking chances and getting interceptions because of it and another guy playing it safe. Revis also is credited with almost a full yard after catch less per reception that Woodson. That also is a sign that one guy may take a chance and need help from a safety while the other guy is making his own tackle.
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Bent says:
Jason – I agree with your comments about the final 8 and have been saying for a while that the Jets should (and probably will) focus their resources on player retention rather than going out and getting a bunch of new guys anyway.
However, unsurprisingly, Lombardi has the wrong end of the stick again, going so far as to say that the Pats are better off having lost on Sunday, almost as if to say it was a smart move and they lost on purpose. “Now they can spend freely” he says.
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Diner-morning-news-Pats-loss-was-a-good-thing.html
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I dont get that theory of losing is a good thing. Spend on what? Almost everyone is a RFA next year. What significant upgrade can the Pats find in free agency? There will likely be none. About the only place I can see the Pats looking that would have been unable to before is trading for Brandon Marshall, but I think he is also a RFA.
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miketaliaferro says:
So, according to Bassett’s theory, if the Ravens had had “a Revis” type of shutdown corner, under Rex’s scheme there’s a good chance that Ed Reed may not have been so widely known as “Ed Reed.” Correct?
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Bent says:
Ed Reed was always going to be Ed Reed. More to the point, this is a perfect example of Rex doing what he promised he would and tweaking the scheme to optimize his players’ strengths. Obviously in Baltimore, it is Reed who is the best defensive playmaker, so he is the guy they want to bait the opponent into throwing at.
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brian311 says:
on the free agent front – i read that if you are in the final 8 and one of your UFA leaves, you have the opportunity to sign one. isnt it pretty safe to say that one of our UFAs will leave?
also i agree that the list of UFA players is probably not as impressive as people think. this isnt baseball where you have a ton of talented guys coming off contracts – many players are RFA, and some of the UFAs who are very talented can be franchised / transitioned. it is a completely different situation in football – so to say that becasue the pats lost in the WC round and have cap space they can act like the ny yankees is probabaly not accurate
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I just wanted to chime in with a quick comment. I feel like Revis was punished for being so shut down and not being required to be as versatile as Woodson. In a case like this it seems to have more to do with the scheme he plays in and the talent around him.
I actually wrote about it on my own blog.
I know he had a great season but just think how scary revis and this defense can be when Rex gets more of “his” type of players.
This could be a 4-5 year run of just dominating defense