Link: Greene Gives Jets Better Chance at Winning
Accuscore crunches the numbers for The Sporting News and notes that if the Jets give the ball to Shonn Greene, they are more likely to win their playoff game this weekend.
In the baseline forecast, Greene and Jones basically split carries, and the Jets have a 32% chance of winning. When Jones is the primary ball carrier, the Jets winning percentage is basically unchanged. However, if Greene is the primary ball carrier, their chances of winning improve by four percentage points and their average margin of loss goes from 7 to 5 points. Despite the higher risk of turnovers, the Jets have a better chance against the Chargers with Greene as the primary RB.
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25 Responses to Link: Greene Gives Jets Better Chance at Winning
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Been saying it for weeks. The kid has to get as many if not more carries than TJ. Let TJ run the rock late in games to salt a way a lead and give Greene a break.
TJ 18 -20 carries
Greene 20- 25 carries
B Smith 4 -6 Wildcat
Sanchez throw the ball 20 timesWe win!
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Harvlis says:
They are taking the statistics and extrapolating them, so that it looks like Greene can run for 200 yards. Don’t forget, we led the league in rushing, with TJ back there. For most of the season, Greene was learning and fumbling. I like when the Jets use both backs but, a key fumble in this game and our season is over. TJ is the man. Ride TJ to the SB.
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Eddie DiGio says:
Greene is one of the smartest rookie runners I have ever seen, he always picks the right spot when the Jets are zone blocking, he always fall foward, and besides a case of fumbilitis early, he has done a much better job. TJ will get the tough yards, but Shonn will move the chains and score points. I have no problem going 60-40 with Greene over TJ rigth now
Besides our prolific rushing attack
I like the way our defense matches up against the Chargers offense. They are big, finesse, basketball type of recievers. They remind a lot of the Houston Texans offense. THey really dont have that devastating slot guy like Welker, who really hurt us when he came back.
The key is going to be hitting RIvers while only bringing 4 or 5 guys MAX. Rex and Pettine get pretty creative with who they send and where they send em.
I know and we all know what this d is capable of, I really think Sunday that they are going to go out and do some things that catch the nations attention. San Diego is a real good athletic team, but they better buckle up the chinstraps, cause the New Young Jets led by DRex are comin
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DSmizzle says:
Greene is great and he’s an ideal zone scheme back (VERY patient when choosing lanes, GREAT at reading the blocking scheme and hits it like a bat out of hell when he sees the holes) BUT TJ got us here. Those stat geeks are interesting but unless Greene is feelin’ it and TJ isn’t (like the Cincy playoff game) then you gotta give TJ the most carries.
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NamVetJet says:
Am psyched about this weekends game. I will be nervous as usual—but I think we have a good chance of winning. I am not much of an x’s and o’s guy, never having played the game in any orgainized way (claim to fame was playing football with Jack Tatum in Jr. High gym class) but as many have said if we can keep the pressure on Rivers we got a shot. And what better coach to have on your side if you want to pressure a QB.
The other thing that gives me confidence is that there is a new attitude top to bottom with this team and we are going to be in the hunt for the SB for the next 10 years.
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spent says:
DSmizzle: Where’s Leon fit in after this season? Do you think TJ is gone? Do they keep Leon? Who do you think is more similar: Leon to Greene. Or TJ or Greene? Got to think that the odd man is going to go.
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Elliot says:
Let’s not overreact to one game, TJ has been so consistent and played so well all year. If he gets off to another slow start then shift Greene into the more prominent role, but based on overall performance, using TJ more gives us a better chance to win realistically, no matter what these guys say.
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pizzapancakes says:
Nothing like being the underdog. That’s the way i’ve always known our Jets and that’s the way I like ‘em. It’s the underdog that you never see you coming; it just makes it that much sweeter when the dog punches you in the mouff.
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Cazz says:
@spent : me personally i feel TJ is gone after next year when his contract is up. Greene is a power back just like TJ except hes younger and faster out of the backfield (Greene reminds me of curtis martin in many ways). I would be surprised if they get rid of leon cuz then you lose the HB screen that they loved so much the beginning of this year plus a HB who can take it up the sidelines. I see TJ Greene and Leon in 2010 but just Greene and Leon in 2011… Let the kids play and learn its time for a new franchise era beginning with this amazing season.. Go Jets!
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JetMetVet says:
Stats have also shown that if the offense takes a knee at least once in a game, that team is more likely to win the game.
Some of this analysis is getting silly. I guess this is what you get when you have less teams to write about.
But yeah, Shonn is a beast.
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we will win! this is our year weve been waiting to long!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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largebarge says:
1st off, lets me just say this…BACON MAKES IT BETTER!!! That said, I’m not as confident, in this weeks matchup, as l was in last weeks game!!! l truly feel San Diego offers too many mis-matches on offense, especially in regards to Gates, but hopefully Rhodes, & Pace can hold him to an average performance!!! Regardless, whether we win, or lose, l’m extremely happy with this teams progression this year!!! The truth is, the Jets are an up, & coming franchise, & I’m hopeful that we’re gonna be a perenial playoff team for years too come!!!
J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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andrew says:
Calvin Pace needs to have a HUGE game. He’s gonna be called on to be a part of the committee to keep Gates in check and he’s our best pass rusher off the outside. Pace needs to earn his $$$$ Sunday.
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Jason says:
Let’s all just take a moment as Jets fans to appreciate this moment, right now, where we are in the Divisional Round…. It doesn’t happen all that often, so let’s enjoy it while it lasts.
Second, the Patriots are not in the playoffs right now and neither are the stupid Dolphins… so let’s just enjoy that little moment…. there.
J-E-T-S… JETS JETS JETS!
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sec133 says:
Rivers is an emotional player.. if we can get him off his rythym by bringing strong blitzes and get him frustrated in the beginning of the game then I feel very confident about our chances. This will also give a lot less time for the play to develop. If we give him time in the pocket then we are cooked, He will find an open guy all day.
On the offensive side, if we can run the ball (which I think we will be able to) and maintain a strong advantage of game clock time… I have no doubts we should win.
Obviously this is a lot easier said then done, but I think we have the coaches and players to make it happen.
J
E
T
SJETS JETS JETS
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After spending a small fortune on hotel, flight, and tickets, I will be at the game, cheering on the Jets…
I’m psyched. LIke you all are saying, we’ve got a lot to be happy about..!!! It’s house money at this point! Let it ride!!!!
Does anyone know of any Jets road trip rally points this weekend? I gotta practice my Jets chant a little before the game…
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largebarge,
If you’re a Jet fan, be optimistic. There is no reason that we can’t beat the Chargers. If the defense has the same type of game that it had against New Orleans and Drew Brees — there is no reason that we can’t shut Rivers down. If you tell your friends that your team is going to kick butt — what’s the worst that can happen — you’re wrong. But, you were a good fan. Right now — You’re a drag.
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Harvis
Are you friggin’ kidding me??? You’re obviously a blowhard baffoon!!! At what point, in my above post, was I being a drag??? I merely said I’m not as confident as I was last week!!! That said, I do feel like we can win this game, & hopefully will, but regardless, I’m extremely happy with this teams effort this year!!!
Suggestion……GET A CLUE, BRO!!!!!!!!!!!
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largebarge,
You weren’t as negative as I thought, upon second read. For that, I apologize for being so critical. It sounded like you were satisfied with what we have done and comfortable with losing. As opposed to you, and although our regular season was not so hot, I am very confident that we will give the Chargers a hard time. Sorry for the rip, it wasn’t deserved. If I see you at the bar, I will buy you a drink. I’ll be the guy who is starting the J-E-T-S chant.
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Harvlis
Apology accepted!!! Let’s just hope Gang Green plays with as much passion, on the field Sunday, as we fans have on this blog!!!!
J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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largebarge,
Raised in Flushing. Walked to games. Delivered newspapers to the 68′ Jets. Live and die it. Go Jets!
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Spent:
The almighty Bent would be the best person to ask regarding the likelihood that they can keep TJ on board (from a potential holdout or contract dispute and salary cap perspective) – THAT BEING SAID:
With Leon recovering from his serious injury, I think the ideal is to try and keep TJ on board. I’d love to see Leon slowly get his legs back under him with a gradually-expanding role as the season goes on. Clearly, he’s a dynamite ’3rd-down back’ (and much more when called upon and when he’s healthy) and is a great change of pace from TJ and Greene, who – while certainly not the same player – are both bigger, strong and powerful running backs.
Ideally, I think if Greene can learn to protect the ball (like Tiki Barber eventually did a few years into his career – a few years too late IMHO), then I’d like to see something close to Greene getting 45 percent of the carries, TJ 40 percent, and Leon around 15 percent. That sets up pretty well for 2011 where I’d like to see a 70-30 split with Leon and Greene (or adjusted for a 3rd back getting 5-10 percent of the carries).
While its fun to see a huge season (1250-plus yards like TJ has been doing), I’d love to get great production from these guys but see them stay around for many years and stay fresh throughout the season. Its not like they’d be doing this per my plan in 2010 and 2011 just for the sake of doing it – TJ, Green and Leon all bring ALOT to the table. TJ may be close to hitting the wall, but I don’t think he will be looking old next year if he’s only handling less than 50 percent of the load.
In summary: I’d like to see TJ back not only for Greene insurance (if he can’t learn not to fumble or gets hurt) and also for Leon insurance (recovering from injury) but also because TJ’s been great and it could be a 3-headed monster.
I’m not so sure TJ shares my opinion about his role next year tho (lol).
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Bent says: Smizz – FWIW my views on TJ haven’t changed much, but the uncapped year, the Leon injury and his emergence as a crucial leader all make it more likely he’ll be back.
If it’s uncapped, then there is no reason not to retain him next year. If he has a high cap number, who cares if there is no cap? If there is a cap, I expect them to try to extend him for 2 more years, so that the 2010 cap number is reduced. They can do this without giving up much more in the way of guaranteed money, so it’s low risk. Even if there is no cap, they still might extend him, but this time, frontload it as much as possible.
I’d be surprised to see him leave.
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