Re-Engineering the Game
There has been a firestorm of criticism in the past six weeks over the practice by teams that have clinched their post-season seeding, of benching starting players in late season games; games that can have no bearing on their postseason. Most notably, the criticism has been leveled against the Indianapolis Colts who, in week sixteen, pulled their starters from a game with the New York Jets in the third quarter, with the outcome still in doubt. The action by the coach, which he admitted was premeditated on the grounds that the Colts had “locked up” their playoff seeding, was in the interest of assuring the health of his team in anticipation of the playoffs, six weeks in the future. However, it was widely believed to have affected the outcome of the game and resulted in the New York Jets having an unfair advantage in obtaining their own post-season berth. While it is obvious that the outcome of the Indianapolis game remained in doubt when the Indianapolis starters were removed, criticism has focused on that club because the act appears to be a betrayal of fan confidence, and calls the game’s overall integrity into question.
In the past, the argument was made that the opportunity to rest players at the end of the season prior to the playoffs, encouraged teams to compete vigorously in the early season. In fact, the league has given the four most successful clubs in the regular season a week off, to rest and recuperate in keeping with that spirit. However, the importance of certain key players to postseason success, along with the length of the season, not to mention the inherent violence of the game, have conspired to make teams reevaluate the cost-benefit ratio of playing expensive, talented individuals in meaningless games, where the health of those players is paramount in producing competitive results in the post-season. While fans have, to some extent in the past, understood this dynamic tension between player safety and competitive late-season games, they no longer seem willing to trade the latter for the former. Thus, there would now seem to be a compelling weight of public opinion in favor of guaranteeing late-season competitiveness.
Unfortunately, there has been an accompanying lack of creativity in suggesting alternatives to the existing system that might guarantee that end. The league has suggested a draft-pick reward for playing “stars” in the last few games, but this seems unworkable on many levels. How would “stars” be determined? How would a star’s “true” injuries be discriminated from ones that were being exaggerated to hold the player out of competition? How would the league assess whether a club was “playing their starters?” Do 75% of starters, qualify on a given week? How many minutes constitute “playing” a game? Is a great special-teams player, a starter?
In the interests of providing a workable solution, I have another suggestion that requires very little alteration of the current seeding system. Why not award the extra advantage of a week off, not to the two teams in a conference with the best overall record, but to the two division winners with the best record over the last six games? Thus, every team would have an incentive to “finish” the season. For example, in this season, the Indianapolis Colts, leading up to the week sixteen matchup with the Jets, would have already accumulated a 4-0 record in the last six games with two games to go. To insure a week off, however, they would have had to finish with a better record over the last six games than the other three division winners. Therefore, the game with the Jets would have had post-season significance. If they blew off their last two games, they would have ended with a 4-2 record in the last six (which in fact they did). If any of the other division winners had a better than 4-2 record (for example, if the Patriots had won 5 of their last 6), they would have replaced Indy as the 1 or 2 seed.
In closing, I should point out that I am agnostic about teams “playing out” the season. However, I can see which way the wind is blowing. In keeping with the prevailing sentiment, then, I submit this plan, for consideration.
32 Responses to Re-Engineering the Game
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Brad says:
I heard my following argument on the radio a few weeks ago: Schedule the last 2-3 games with in the divison or other rival type games. If the colts played the Patriots the last week- I think the colts would of played harder with more starters playing because of the rivalry. I think combining this strategy with this articles suggested strategy by Weiss might be the perfect combo solution to this problem.
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JEFFDOLFINI says:
I was wondering, how would everyone feel about this team if we would have lost to the Colts and ended the season 8-8 and missed the playoffs. I for one would have had alot more questions about this team. It is amazing how things worked out this year. I really don’t think after we lost to the Falcons that we deserved to make it, but we got lucky this year. We better be alot better in the regular season next year.
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I rest my starters. The prize is the championship not the stats. Play it the way it is. The Colts were not the only loser to the Jets. Every contender who blew it at the end, no matter who they played, helped the Jets. It was “Divine Providence” that decided this outcome, not the Jets, Colts, Bengals, etc.. Also, Manning got another shot at figuring out Rex’s defense, and with the help of Scott’s injury, he figured it out and smote us!
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Bent says: All those conditions like “if they play 75% of their starters, then that’s okay” would have been met by the Colts, who had a few starters legitimately out with injuries, but the guys who started the game all played into the fourth quarter on defense and the offensive line, which basically gets you to 75%. If that was the rule, they could have done exactly the same thing and everyone would still be making the same complaints.
Changing the rules in that way won’t make much difference, it will just set the parameters around which everyone can (and therefore will) rest players.
And what happens if there are legitimate injuries? Are you forced to play hurt? The players union will never sign up for that. It also potentially opens the door for some crafty deceit.
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Tom B says:
The stink this year only comes from people not wanting to see the Jets “back into” the playoffs. What they never address is why any of the other teams *should* have made the playoffs.
Denver? They had a joke of a second half and no one to blame but themselves.
Pittsburgh? Don’t lose on a 88 yard drive led by Bruce Gradkowski and then I will care that you didn’t make the playoffs.
Houston? Lost to the jets, no argument.It seems that people only care because it was the Jets that benefited from the situation. If Pittsburgh snuck in under similar circumstances I doubt this article would have even been written today. This isn’t the first time that a team has snuck in over the last 3 weeks with a debatable no-starters opponent, and it won’t be the last.
So do we adjust the entire playoff structure to account for teams that have dominated the league all year? Why bother? Competitive balance can only exist and be accounted for over the entire season. Don’t want the Jet’s to make the playoffs by beating a team that isn’t playing their starters? Try winning games all season, not just at the end to hope to make it with less than 10 wins.
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Chase says:
Resting starters makes no difference to me. It happens in all sports. They could probably alleviate some of the problem by seeding teams according to record (and not division / wc). But, that would only help keep the 10-6 / 11-5 teams playing… sometimes.
The NFL needs to stop trying to fix every problem like this. The whole concept of restricting the top 4 teams from signing UFAs is absolutely ridiculous. The salary cap keeps the league competitive. Now they are just trying to fix problems that don’t’ exist.
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If Denver, Houston, or Miami really feels like the Colts jipped them out of a playoff spot, then they should have focused on winning more games. That isn’t Indy’s problem. Or ours, for that matter.
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NamVetJet says:
Andrew: the only problem I have with your scenario is that it would have been possible that Manning could have had a legit injury that would have kept him out of the last two games. You would then be punishing a team for having an injured starter.
IMO micro-managing is not an option. The Jets needed a lot things to fall in place in order for them to make the playoffs this year. It was a perfect storm. It has happened in the past and will happen again. This is what the NFL wanted when they set up the wild-card system—maintain interest at the end of the season for an many teams as possible. As I have said before they call them “wild-card” teams for a reason and the road for a wild-card team is very difficult. I think that the system works just fine and does not need tikering.
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Jack says:
Two words, Wes Welker.
Ask the Pats if they could have a do over if they would have changed that move.
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SackDance99 says:
Besides injury, what if the Colts had lost to the Jets in a hard fought game? Swagger and confidence are important to teams and the Colts to a man believed that if they played all 4 quarters to win, they’d beat the Jets. But, what if the Jets had won? What if Pace would’ve gotten to Peyton and stripped sacked him (it wasn’t like Painter had that much time)? What if the Jets ground game made mince meat of the Colts in the 4th quarter? There are losses that teams have (like boxers) that they can’t recover from (like the Titans’ loss to the Jets last year, after the bloom was off the rose, the Titans couldn’t get their swagger back).
I say keep the season the way it is. If you win 12 or 13 straight games and clinch your division and a bye, you deserve to play however you want. Also, the NFL doesn’t allow for “garbage time” like the other pro sports. Those 2 games gave the Colts back ups important playing time against regular season NFL opposition. Maybe the reason that teams, like the Colts, are able to maintain quality is that their coaching staff gets to evaluate their reserves against real NFL action more so than other teams.
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this is a non-issue — win early in the season and you earn the right to do what you want.
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Jets = (Less) Misery says:
Yeah I don’t buy it. There’s nothing here that needs fixing, and I don’t feel bad for the Steelers or Texans fans.
Stop trying to micro-manage every last detail, it’s stupid. The system is perfectly fine. We don’t need more games, more regulations, less regulations, or anything else. It’s fine the way it is, thank you very much.
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Wes says:
This resting starters in a non-issue. Some years you benefit, some years you don’t. Just part of the game. Given that there are more teams then games played, every schedule of every team is unfair, every year but we seem to live with that. In the old AFL, where every team was able to play every other team in the league (twice inside their division) you had little argument about unfair scheduling. There were no weaker or stronger schedules. But we live with that with few complaints.
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ramble914 says:
As Brad said above:
The best way to “resolve” this, if it must be resolved, is to schedule the last game or two within each teams division. That would leave the outcome of the palyoffs to the very end and make the end of the season games relevant.
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I agree very much with what sd99 wrote. In addition, if andrew’s scenario were implemented, it would improve this “problem” but not alleviate it. There would still be cases where a team has the 1st seed locked up and could rest whoever they wanted the last week (or even two).
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Biebs says:
I don’t see the value in the last games ni the division at the end.. That wouldn’t have affected the Colts at all this season.
I jsut don’t like the idea of making the games at the end of the season more valuable than the ones at the beginning.
I don’t see an issue, this isn’t like the idiotic overtime rules. It doesn’t need to be fixed
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cling says:
I was searching the web and came across this
DEARTH ON WAY OUT?
The Jets have signed Kansas City long snapper Tanner Purdum, 25, a member of the Chiefs practice squad this season. Could mean an end to James Dearth, 34, the Jets long snapper since 2001, who is an unrestricted free agent this season. Yes, there were some questions about Dearth this season after a few bad snaps on Feely FGs, but Dearth has been a rock for over 8 seasons now.
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Harvlis says:
Andrew,
I enjoy your posts alot. I don’t think your proposal is feasible because, teams who do well early should not be penalized, if they end the season poorly. The final record is what counts.
I agree with Chase’s post.
How could the league tell a team that they have to play certain players, if the team says that the players have minor injuries and can’t play. The league has to leave this alone. I understand that many Colt fans would have liked to have an undefeated season. I can’t understand why that wasn’t important to their management. Especially, since they played Manning for more than a half. If they wanted to protect him — why did he play at all? In Indiannapolis’ case, I blame their management for the stupidity.
If a team does well enough, that they have the ability to sit players, and let them get healthy at the end of a season, they should do so.
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greg sec130 says:
If your effort is to make the league more fair, I don’t think making the last six games count more than the first ten is the answer. Now you’ve made it more fair in that these teams will play harder late, but opened up the potential for unfairness in the scheduling. Besides, who is to say the Colts don’t go 5-0 and the other three teams go 3-2 and they still rest in the final game?
And where does it end? If a team is winning 42-0 in the 4th Q should they have to play their starters? No. The goal is to win the Super Bowl. To get to the Super Bowl, you need to win games. But not every game. You can’t police every coach and team into trying every game.
I agree with Bent to a degree — Trying to schedule games late in the year against good teams… of course it’s impossible to know which teams will be good, and you cannot hold scheduling because of the stadiums need to fill off weeks with concerts, etc long in advance… but, maybe you must play teams that were closest to your prior year’s record late in the year. Thus, next year the Jets play all 9-7 teams in weeks 15, 16, 17, as much as possible. It’s as close as you’ll get to matching up the right teams late.
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Chase: “The whole concept of restricting the top 4 teams from signing UFAs is absolutely ridiculous. The salary cap keeps the league competitive. Now they are just trying to fix problems that don’t’ exist.”
The concept was created because the salary cap is going away next year. That is the point. If an agreement comes soon and the cap is intact for 2010, that concept will not happen.
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I have a great idea for us football fans to get through sundays without football.
How about each week after the superbowl, we will still have sunday night football going for 21 weeks. Each week they replay the best game from each week. So the best game from week 1 will be replayed the 1st week. etc.
What does everyone think? -
This is really a case of trying to fix a problem that doesn’t exist save for in the media.
In the NFL, probably more than in sports like MLB or the NBA which have very long seasons with many games, every game is important. A week 6 match up agains the Lions is every bit as important as a week 16 match up against the Colts. Every game counts exactly the same. This should be obvious but it tends to get lost as the season progresses and people focus on the current record and what is needed to get into the playoffs for their team.
Decisions are made throughout the season which could affect playoff standings. For example, Sanchez sitting against the Bucs when it was reported that he could have played if it were a playoff game. Even the decision to keep playing Sanchez when he was going through his rookie meltdown because it was felt the experience he would gain was worth more to the Jets in the long run than a game or two in the ’09 season may have affected the overall league standings. This kind of stuff happens to every team throughout the season. How do you account for that? The truth is, it’s never accounted for, it only seems to matter around playoff time.
In my opinion, anything that is done to address this “problem” will just create other issues and the process repeats. Much better to tell teams like the Steelers and others who were whinning about the Jets at the end of the year, if you want to be in the playoffs don’t take half the season off and then turn it on at the end. Every game matters and that should be the focus.
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Brabble says:
That is not what agnostic means.
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Andrew Weiss says:
bent, harvlis
You’ve got things wrong. I’m not suggesting that any rules be used to determine who should play. That was my example of what won’t work. I merely said award the top two seeds to the teams with the best record in the last six. Play who you want.
We already reward the top two seeds by overall record. No one is suggesting we take the playoffs away from a fourteen win team. I’m just suggesting different criteria for awarding the top two positions. If a 13 win team goes 3-3 in its last six, while an eleven win team goes 6-0 to close the season (assuming they win the division), why can’t we award them the higher seed?
As I said, I don’t know what’s best, but if the problem needs to be fixed, here’s a solution that’s relatively uncomplicated.
brabble
That is what agnostic means, as long as we’re using English.
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Bent says:
Andrew – no, I did appreciate your stance. If anything, I was trying to reinforce your point. Good article btw.
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Cold_Old_Steeler_Fan says:
Do teams get in trouble for a Q-back taking a knee at the end of a game when the outcome is decided?
If you have earned the luxury of resting/protecting your best/most vulnerable players then you should be able to do so. Any fans who can’t figure that out are idiots or whiners looking for a reason to complain.
Yes, my Steelers didn’t get in. Tough. We will just have to win more games next year.
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Andrew,
I understand your proposal but, I believe the overall record is what should count and teams that win early and have a better overall record should not be penalized.
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boozer says:
This never really was an issue until this year and the colts 16-0 thing.
Keep it the way it is. Teams earn the right to approach the playoffs however they want.
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What happens if my team has a tough schedule for the last games and a team competing for the last spot with me has an easy schedule. Is that fair? That system does’nt seem fair to me. If it ain’ broke don’t fix it. The only problem I see is that no one likes the Jets and it pissed them off that we got in.
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DHarvey27 says:
I think fans who whine about the throw away games are in truth a minority of fandom. I don’t think the NFL needs to change a thing. If the Colts felt they could sit back the last two games, good for them. The ONLY thing that matters is winning the Super Bowl and how a team gets there should be their choice. Period. The end.
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klecko71 says:
this is a GIANT JOKE….
the league is worried about crap like this, but their fans pay full price for $%%#$! PRE SEASON GAMES!!!
this only became an issue b/c the colts were losers for not going for 16-0…. they decided a perfect season wasnt worth risking injury for the prize they deemed most impt…a super bowl win.
of course their players said they wanted to go for it, and i agree they should have…but like others have said…ask the pats how they felt watching welker get carted off the field.
AND….manning and the rest of the best colt players playing in that blizzard in buffalo would have been quite the risk….
there is no “solution” to the problem…b/c it isnt a problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! its a teams right to do what they want…..
commissioner roger needs to worry about the lockout thats coming b/c losers like us who pay too much $$ for tickets and in some cities PSL’s….arent gonna stand for this crap much longer especially if the loser owners lock out the players in 2011.
Oh tell those people to stick it!!!
I would rather my team sit my guys and be prepared to play in the playoffs healthy then to have a star player get injured and loose them for the playoffs over a meaningless game!!!
As I channel my best Herm…..Remember….. “YOU PLAY TO WIN”!!