Link: Passing the Torch?
The Sporting News fantasy footballers are looking into the crystal ball for next year, and they see … more good things for Shonn Greene.
RB Shonn Greene
The Jets waited for the playoffs to lean on the rookie, who averaged less than eight carries per game during the regular season. However, Greene posted two 100-yard games in the postseason and had touchdown runs of 39 and 53 yards. With his solid playoff performance, we may have witnessed the passing of the torch in the Jets’ backfield. Although Thomas Jones had another outstanding season, he’ll be 32 next season and could be in for a reduced role with Greene emerging and Leon Washington still in the mix.
For as much as we love TJ, with bonuses due to him, we’ll all have to keep our ear to the ground as to what the Jets do before the start of the 2010 cap year. He might not even be on the team to share the role with Greene and Washington … we’ll know soon enough.
73 Responses to Link: Passing the Torch?
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Bkkilla says:
i think without tj we aren’t the same team, what if greene gets injured?
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PA Matt says:
We definitely do not need Danny Woodhead. Sorry, I just don’t buy it.
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Vinny "IcantPASSthe" TESTAVERDE says:
I agree with PA Matt
No noe knows if Leon is going to be the same player he is.
IF LT leaves SD i would give him look, JUST a look. -
JamaicanJetFan says:
We need to draft a Tashard Choice type back in the 5th round this year
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BamBam says:
RB’s don’t last like other players. TJ is a rarity and we should ride him until his wheels fall off. Shonn is a great back but he spends too much time in the repair shop.
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Brendan says:
The only LT I would welcome to this team is the original. Did you SEE Tomlinson in the playoff game? I could’ve easily done the same job as him (run into the line at about 40% speed and fall over).
I think that if Greene gets a full offseason working out with his trainers they can build up his ability to stay healthy. He is the real deal, but I would like to see TJ kept on as a split-back scenario, keeping Greene rested for the 2nd half of the year and playoff push).
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Randy says:
Harvlis-I actually think our schedule isnt all to bad..
You cant pay attention to records because some team will be worse and others will be better…here is my breakdown..
If we are as good as we think we are than there are 7 Must winnable games.We Play Miami and Buffalo twice which we SHOULD win..We play Detriot,Cleveland and Chicago…3 very winnable games,,that gives us 7 games we SHOULD win…
We play the Patriots twice so I think we can spit so that gives us 8 wins..
Denver had a good start and fell apart and I dont think they are as good as their record..we could win 9 games there..
Out of the final 6 games..(Ravens,Bengals,Packers,Vikings,Texans,Steelers)
Vikings might not have Favre which makes them worse in the passing game,Ravens and Bengals are very winable because we match up perfectly with them and in ways they are similar to our style.I think Texans will be a tough offense to deal with but I still believe their defense is going to drag the Texans down.Only REALLY TOUGH games are the Steelers and Packers who are very tough to handle.I think we can split those games and have a record around 11-13 win season.
All in all we should be a better team next season than we were last season based on development of Sanchez and Greene.
At best we can win 12-13 games but if we let games slip like we did this year we are looking at 9-10 games.
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If not TJ then who can help carry the load? I love TJ but am not against replacing him ….but with who?
We cannot go into the 2010 season with Leon and Greene who have yet to show they can carry the ball more than 100 times in a year.
We dont need a 1000 yard back in the mix with these two kids even if TJ comes back but we need someone. Sanchez will be much more involved in the offense which should offset the running game a little but the best option is still probably T Jones…..
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Bent says: As Bkkilla says…on opening day 2010 if the Jets go into the game with a RB rotation of Greene/Leon/Woodhead and Greene gets hurt, then what? Leon might not be back to full fitness yet and they can’t expect to rely on Woodhead to go from part time third down back/fill in receiver to 20 carries a game running back.
Even if they drafted a running back to replace Jones, most rookie runners can’t cope with NFL pass protection right off the bat, so that guy probably couldn’t be expected to step in.
Jones stays. Surely…
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Jets-Fan-4-Life says:
The Jets need to keep Thomas Jones for 1 more year mainly because of Leon’s abilities after the injury are questionable!
Guys lets not fool ourselves TJ is one of the leaders on this team. He has lots of knowledge and is well grounded (no diva personality). He is a solid runner with great hands, and is in better shape then most backs his age!
Not sure what you think by I believe this is the kind of in house/on filed player any franchise would love to have, in order to mentor the next generation of players! Oh and what else makes him valuable to this team is that Jones has played in the Super Bowl! If this team ever gets to the big game his experience will be sought out!
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Oh and as for Woodhead I like the kid, but this experiment has run its course. Like most on this blog…. I think its time to move on.
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SackDance99 says:
TJ will enter the next season as a 32-year old RB, who the previous 5 years had over 1,500 rushes. In his last 6 games (including playoffs) he failed to crack over 3 yards per carry 5 times. IMO, you can’t look at his past 5 years and automatically assume that his production will be similar in 2010. I have never seen TJ rush at 32 after 1,500 carries the past 5 seasons and nobody else has either. It stands to reason, however, that his play will deteriorate. By how much is anybody’s guess. I’m on the record as saying that RB is a “need” this off-season because I just don’t think TJ is a reliable back up to Shonn Greene. The gap between what Greene can do and what TJ can do is too big. We may not have Faneca and Woody for much longer. While they’re still here, we need fresh horses behind them. I’m not saying TJ should be cut, but I don’t want him being the only “between the tackles” RB option behind Greene. The running game is too important for the Jets success to be that thin at backup RB.
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Oh just a thought….
Rex love the run game, he love the “pound and pound” performance between Jones and Greene.Leon is not built to pound the defensive line. Leon is a scat back/burner.
I do not see Rex cutting TJ unless there is another proven BIG pounder behind Sanchez!
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Gregory Rasputin says:
I love Shonne Greene. He was MY choice for first round pick last year…
That said… he will not be able to fill Thomas Jones’s shoes unless he adopts the grueling personal regimen of Jones.
Jones’s dependability is no accident. It can only come from supreme daily sacrifice.
Until the Mr.Greene adopts that regimen, the Jets would be wise to save him for the playoffs every year….
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One more thing… Thomas Jones may be 68 in March… I see no replacement in the offing for him.
A 4 back offence (Richardson included) may be unorthodox… but it would be a logical and difficult to defend solution.
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I’m sorry everyone but Greene cant be a full time RB yet.
He is a great runner but still has 3 important things he has to learn:
1) Catch the ball.
2) Pick up blocks out of the backfield.
3) Not fumble the ball.T. Jones is one of the best RB’s of #2 & #3 above.
Also, I wouldnt be surprised for the Jets to non-tender Leon hoping a team would give him big money to let the Jets sign one of the big defensive FA’s (Seymour or maybe even Peppers).
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WRXWgnNY says:
We still need to keep TJ! While he is aged and started to slow up during the post season, you can’t replace his leadership role and regular season play. Greene has a lot of promise but he’s not there yet, split carry teams with TJ, and have him learn more from TJ this coming year is the best way to go IMO. Leon has recovered but coming off a broken leg injury is going to be tough to expect him to play with the same explosiveness as he has prior to the injury.
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Harvlis says:
Randy,
You make it sound easy. I think we have a very tough schedule, against teams that are out of our division. The truth is, the schedule is easy or hard, depending on how good our team is. I have faith in Tanny that, he will have us ready to go for next season. I just hope you are right.
Sack,
I think your facts on Thomas Jones are wrong. As recently as the Colt game at the end of the season, TJ rushed for over 100 yds on 23 carries. He was injured at the end of the year. They were pretty quiet about the injury but, I do feel that he was not himself in the playoffs. That being said, he ran for 1400 yds this past season and did not look like a back that was falling off the table. If they can work out a reasonable contract with him for two years, I don’t think there are too many backs that we could get that would be better than TJ.
I do agree that depth is going to be important at the RB position. Thankfully, you can get good RB’s in the late rounds of the draft and, I’m sure, there will be some solid RB’s that get cut.
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Bent says:
I don’t even expect TJ’s numbers to be anything like this year, but even if they are half as good (700 yards, 7TDs*), then it will be worth having him around for leadership, to mentor TJ, to convert in short yardage situations and to send a message that the Jets look after their veteran players. It won’t hurt to have a fallback option in the event of a Shonn Greene injury, either.
* That’s assuming he does that in 200 carries, not 300.
His numbers fell in similar fashion at the end of the past two years, yet he returned the following year and was strong, which leads me to believe he was worn down, as opposed to permanently worn out.
Look at Tomlinson this year with the Chargers. Yeah, he was a shadow of his former self and is no longer in the conversation with the NFL’s elite, but he was still productive and if there’s no real financial reason to move a guy, why weaken your roster?
If you think they can get a guy cheap that will be as productive, then that’s a different matter, but good luck finding someone as reliable.
I really hope the Jets don’t non-tender Leon. (Well, they’ve already announced they will, so I guess it’s already been decided). Again, if Greene gets hurt, that leaves us with the same situation that perhaps cost the Jets a Superbowl berth.
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Ben Nevis says:
Bassett-
We heard this same thing–that TJ should be dumped or traded–before the 2009 season began. And we heard it again before the 2008 season began.
In 2008, TJ led the AFC in rushing with over 1,300 yards. In 2009, Jones had his best season ever, with over 1,400 yards.
I love Shonn as a RB, but TJ gained almost
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Sorry, that comment somehow got posted before I finished it.
What I was saying was that:
I love Shonn as a RB, but TJ gained almost 900 MORE YARDS than Greene did last year (540 to 1,402). This kid is just that, a kid, with only one rookie season under his belt. Who knows what he’ll be able to do or not do in 2010.
TJ, on the other hand, is one of the most consistent backs in the league. He’s rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the past five years.
Bent is right, Bassett. No way we go into 2010 without Thomas Jones.
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ronnie:
I have been thinking that Leon might get traded this offseason since he sustained that injury.Now with this 2010 salary cap issue and who the Jets are capable of signing…. Leon seems to be the best choice for an immediate trade and sign in order for this team to sign a big name defensive player!
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only maurice jones drew has more tds in last 2 years than tj, including adrian peterson!!
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neauone says:
C.J. SPILLER GO GET HIM TANNY!!!
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Bent,
Why don’t you want them to tender Leon?
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Bent says:
Harvlis – I said I hope they don’t NON-tender Leon.
In other words, I do want them to tender him!
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Harvlis,
I said that in 5 of his last 6 games this season, Jones had an under 3 YPC, so I don’t believe you read my post right and I did not have my facts wrong. The only game that he went over 3 was the Colts game, which is not all that great for Jones because Greene out-performed him. During the same 6 game stretch, not only was Greene over 4 YPC in 5 out of 6, but also in the sixth, against Atlanta, he was at 3.8 YPC and probably should have had more carries. Point is behind the same OL, Greene AVERAGED 2 more YPC in those 6 games!!!!
Plus, all of you that simply expect Jones to be the exact same RB he was the previous season fail to account that he will enter 2010 at 32. Comparing him to LT, who has severely declined the past 2 seasons to say that LT wasn’t that bad fails to account for the fact the Jones is a year older and LT was a negative force on the Chargers. I don’t have the database to show that 32 is a bad age for RBs, but I remember the last Jets RB who at 31 had over 1400 yards and over 300 carries. You know what happened when he was 32? He had his worst season as a pro, got injured and retired. We all know who that was: Curtis Martin.
So, we have a chance not to repeat history and rely upon a 32-year old RB to defy father time. I’m not saying that the Jets should cut TJ, just that the Jets need to acquire another “between the tackles” RB in case TJ is done. Also, getting back to LT, his presence was gloomy on the Chargers. He was a shadow of his former self, lost carries to Sproles (who may have even been paid more) and knew he was on his way out. Could TJ be a similar gloomy presence on the Jets in 2010? One last point, the team leader on offense is no longer TJ. This is Mark Sanchez’s offense and he is the leader. If having TJ around impedes Sanchez from taking the leadership mantle, IMO, that’s a reason to cut Jones and acquire an RB as high as in round 2.
Realistic Jets fans have to look at the roster with cold-hearted objectivity. At his best, TJ was an above-average NFL back, who was not good at the second level. The Jets OL attacks the second-level better than any other OL in the NFL. Even if TJ were 29 years old, he would still not be the best type of RB for the Jets’ zone-blocking scheme. Sentimentality kills in the NFL, it’s not like Jones was C-Mart. He’s been a solid performer, who was paid handosmely for his talents. He is now going to be 32, in the danger zone for NFL RBs, so why on Earth should the Jets make a point of keeping him? In the Giants’ heyday under Parcells, every year OJ Anderson would run like one of the NFL’s best RBs and every year Parcells would cut him for salary cap purposes. That’s how you build winning teams.
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Bent,
Maybe “non-tendering” Leon is a way for the Jets to let Leon establish a market, like this past season when Moore was cut. Moore thought he was worth more (pardon the pun) than the Jets were willing to spend. So, he was cut and his agent solicited teams only to find that the market for RGs (not exactly a difficult position to fill) was not nearly as robust as he thought. I think Leon will find the same problem. The market for RBs coming off of knee surgery will not garner him MJD-type money. If anything, his injury will bolster the notion that he’s not an every down back and should not be paid accordingly. It’s the prevailing thought in the NFL that RB is a plentiful and fungible position. Thus, Leon may find out that what he could make with the Jets is significantly more than what he could make on the open market.
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Bent says:
I agree with most of your post. Where I used Tomlinson as an example, I was talking about that almost as a worst case scenario. I’d hope that TJ will be a positive influence, because that’s the main reason I’d suggest retaining him. I’d agree that in any other year, it wouldn’t make sense to keep him with a high cap number, but in an uncapped year, it seems counter-intuitive to get rid of him. Especially when replacing him could be problematic.
Adding another back might be a sensible move, but isn’t a top priority.
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SackDance-
You write: “At his best, TJ was an above-average NFL back. . .”
TJ led the NFL in rushing in 2008, with over 1,300 yards. And 2009 was his best season ever with over 1,400 yards. How is that in any way just “above-average.”
Jones is without question one of the best backs in the league over the past five years, in which he gained over 1,000 yards in each of five seasons.
As for YPC, TJ had 4.2 last season, Shonn had 5.0. But Jones gained almost 900 MORE YARDS than Greene (540 to 1,402).
As for Curtis Martin, just because he hit a wall at age 32, it does not reliably predict that any other back (ie, TJ) is going to hit a wall at that same age.
In the preseason, you predicted Lito would be All-Pro. (I predicted Lito would be a bust.) You were wrong then, you’re wrong again.
There is no way in hell that Rex isn’t bringing TJ back in 2010, especially in a year when the Jets face so many trade restrictions.
To think otherwise is simply delusional.
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Correction: TJ led the AFC in rushing in 2008, with over 1,300 yards rushing.
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Bent says:
Tendering Leon and risking losing him for nothing doesn’t make much sense when a high tender is so cheap. I guess they could give him a lower tender and then some teams might actually make an offer for him (thereby setting the market as you suggest) and giving the jets the option to match or let him go and collect a pick.
A second round tender might be low enough to attract some offers. However, I’d expect them to retain him at the top tender so that nobody will bid and he can be retained on the cheap.
It’s worth it just to annoy Keels, who recently tweeted about how unfair the franchise tag is (boo hoo hoo, as Rex would say). I’d imagine that, like Peter King, he was actually referring to RFA tenders.
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sackexchange says:
TJ has given his heart to us and as far as character, top notch……if he stays woodhead must go and there had better be a better RB then TJ to replace woodhead making TJ the fourth RB. I like u TJ but your time has come…..
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Bent,
But, Jones will also take up a roster spot that could go to an RB/FB combo who could play special teams. Plus, I’ll play seanmac here and say that I bet that statistically it’s likely that Jones either gets injured or will be ineffective at 32. Thus, why not save the money and build for the future, especially since the Jets do need to groom an FB? As for “needs” besides a pass rushing WILL/DE hybrid or a bona fide slot WR (who could be an off-season veteran pick up), I don’t think any position is any more of a “need” than any other (and, yes, I’m including CB because I think Lowery, Coleman, Strickland and Cole are far better than people think; after all, the Jets did have the no. 1 pass defense by a wide margin). However, the running game is vital to this team’s offense and having RBs that can fully exploit the Jets’ excellent run-blocking OL for 4 quarters of every game of the 2010 season is as big a “need” as I can think of. And, it was a “need” that was lacking this season after Leon was injured and TJ’s play declined AND the lack of a capable back up to Greene cost the Jets against the Colts as much as (if not more than) the play of the non-Revis CBs. The Jets just can’t be caught short on RBs again.
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Bent says:
Ben – The money owed to TJ is still a lot of cash, even though the salary cap is a non-factor. I hope they do bring him back, but if they want to defray the cost over a few years, but TJ isn’t on board with a cap friendly contract extension, then looking for a cheaper option instead is not beyond the realms of possibility.
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Sack,
I agree with you totally that, knowing when to cut the cord is the key to being a good GM. If we were talking about paying TJ to be the starting RB, I would look elsewhere. Thankfully, we will have Shonn Greene taking over the majority of the load. Regardless, we will need depth at the RB position. I think TJ would be our best possible security blanket, as long as the price is right. His yards per carry don’t frighten me, as the other things he brings to the table more than make up for that. I don’t think that his leadership will be a problem. It is not like he is an outspoken personality. He is coming off one of the best all-around seasons for a RB in the NFL. Contrary to what Denver has done over the years, I believe that TJ’s familiarity with the O-line is important. As long as that price tag is reasonable, we are not going to get a better back-up for Shonn.
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Bent says:
Sack – there are obviously pros and cons. The pros, which I listed earlier, outweigh the cons IMO, but what I think doesn’t matter. It depends what the team’s current thinking is. We shall see.
I think the CBs the Jets have are good enough to handle most teams, but they need to be able to stop the Colts, Pats and Chargers. When everyone was healthy, they fared pretty well against those teams, but I’d feel a little more comfortable with better depth. I don’t disagree about needing to bolster the pass rushing.
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Bent-
I agree that we’re probably not looking at a cap-friendly contract extension for TJ this year. As you may remember, he wasn’t happy with his contract going into the 2009 season.
But I can’t see Rex cutting TJ going into the 2010 season, especially in an uncapped year, and especially when there are such severe trade restrictions on the team.
Which also means it’s going to be extremely difficult to replace him.
Which also means, TJ plays out the final year of his contract with the Jets this season.
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One more thing, Bent-
I think it’s pretty clear that Rex is going to target a quality CB in the offseason.
It’s also pretty clear that RR thinks the poor play by our CBs (other than Revis) is the key reason we didn’t make it to the Super Bowl.
Lowery, Lito and Coleman were embarrassed in the AFC Championship game.
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Bent says:
I expect so, but these trade restrictions are really not all that bad. If they did release Jones, they could still sign any RB cut by another team, trade for one, draft one or sign an RFA.
I hope they don’t but it’s not unthinkable.
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Bent says:
Ben – yes, his comments did suggest that and I think that would be smart. Is it the top priority though? Who knows?
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Bent-
Any RB cut by another team is not going to better than TJ, otherwise he wouldn’t be cut.
And I can’t see us drafting a RB in the first couple of rounds.
So I would say it’s highly probable that TJ is back in 2010. So much so I’d be willing to place actual money on it.
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Bent-
Yes, it might be difficult to say that targetting a quality CB is going to be THE top priority, but I think it’s safe to say that Rex sees it as at least ONE of the top priorities.
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Jeff says:
Um, I am not worried that Leon will return back to form. Some of you guys sound like he tore his ACL or blew out a knee. He broke a leg bone.
All I know is that an injury like that does not limit or inhibit the way you usually play a game. Knee injuries do (i.e. Culpepper)
The book is still out on Greene and Washington, but TJ better get a paycut if he gets a reduced role.
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Bent, I think its a very high possibility that we’ll tender Leon but not at the highest level just so Leon can get an offer from another team. I think the same tender that Miles Austin got last offseason will suffice. If he gets the big contract, watch us go after Dunta Robinson.
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Ben Nevis,
You want to go “tit-for-tat” on predictions? I’ve been posting here for years and regulars know that my predictions, like: Gholston would be a bust (made well before the draft), that Matt Ryan would be a franchise QB (made before the draft), that the Jets OL would not suffer injuries this season (made before the season), that Rex Ryan would transform the Jets’ defense to a top 5 defense (made days after Ryan was selected), that Scott and Leonhard would be excellent FA signings (made before the deals were announced), that the Jets’ record this season would be at least as good as last year’s (bingo, 9-7), that drafting a QB and starting the rookie was better than having KC be the QB (something I’ve said for, maybe, 3 years), that Sanchez should start his rookie season and not be benched during the season and on and on. I’ll match my track record with anyone who posts here. So, I was wrong about Lito, it was one of the few.
Plus, you fall into the trap of expecting Jones to be the same RB as he was before 32. So, he can defy father time, but C-Mart, LT, Shaun Alexander, Emmit Smith, Eddie George couldn’t? Do you know how many elite RBs were done by 30? Including guys like Terrell Davis and Earl Campbell? As far as I know, only 2 RBs that were 32 or over have one of the top 250 rushing seasons in NFL history: Walter Payton and John Riggins. Do you think Jones is in that company? Really?
As for average, TJ has never led the NFL in rushing (he led the AFC in 2008), is tied for the 121st best rushing season of all time and his 4.0 YPC is tied for 245th best. He may crack 10,000 yards rushing for his career (a notable benchmark) and it’s his longevity that makes him “above-average” because his other career numbers are just average for a lead back. The best thing that Jones has going for him is the good fortune of being behind one of the NFL’s great run-blocking OLs. Citing Jones’ rushing yards over Greene’s is a joke, right? Isn’t YPC more important? With all due respect, Greene’s rushing performance in the playoffs was a level of greatness that Jones has never approached. Are you really arguing that Jones is BETTER than Greene? I mean, did you watch the games or just listen on radio?
So, Ben, if you think that TJ can just keep on chugging along until he’s 40 without any detioration, then you have real nerve calling me “delusional.”
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Harvlis,
TJ’s YPC bothers me, a lot. He cannot have a 2 YPC drop off from Greene. That means we go from a weapon to a dud and it changes the entire offense. In 2006 (Williams) and 2008 (Stewart), Carolina took 1st round every down RBs. Similarly, the Titans took a 1st round RB in 2008 (Johnson) and a 2nd rounder in 2006 (White). Carolina and the Titans may have problems, but it’s not at RB. Fisher and Fox are smart, defensive oriented guys, like Rex. When your team identity is wrapped up in the defense and running game, then it’s a position where quality depth is important. TJ’s final 6 games were sub-standard and he’s just not a good second-level RB. So, RB depth is an issue. Plus, I wouldn’t over-emphasize getting used to the OL’s zone blocking. Many colleges use zone blocking and hitting the hole and the vision to see the holes at the second level along with the elusiveness to create holes or break tackles is more skill than learning. I mean Shonn is great, but he wasn’t exactly a Rhodes scholar in college and now he’s earned Phi Beta Kappa in zone blocking.
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Bent
I have missed most of the Leon tender talk but…. am I the only guy thinking their is a team out there that (knowing 2010 might be the last real football for a while) will go after a Leon to make a run? Especially if we dont offer the highest tender?
I juts have a feeling teams are gearing up for this years run
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Bent says:
Ben – Maybe I should broker a gambling transaction between you and Hank. He’s convinced the Jets will not “honor TJ’s contract”.
Guys, let’s not turn this into an argument.
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Bent says:
Drew – I think he will get the top tender. It’s just too risky to expose him if they want to keep him (especially with the possibility of a poison pill type contract that they can’t match).
I don’t see a downside in retaining him for $3m and then revisiting his contract demands during the season.
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Bent,
What team would target Leon? Just curious, do you have a team in mind? Also, there’s no cap or floor in 2010, so there might be some teams that dump high salaries and don’t touch the FA market.
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I have agreed with SD99 thoughts on TJ since the end of the year.
The guy has had a run of carries the last 5 years that have matched any RB in a long time. I love the guy but its not blind love. Yes I think he is valuable and yes I think he still can be a nice piece of our running game but he has to except the fact that he is a spilt carry back at best going into 2010.
And there are always salary cuts that become starters for other teams…..It happens every year. It wouldnt be my first choice but it would be a choice.
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SD99
What about a team like San Diego, Seattle, Houston or god forbid New England?
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Bent says:
No, I don’t have anyone in mind, but it only takes one team to want him and he’d be gone. I’m sure someone would bite if he had a low tender (which could also adversely affect contract negotiations if the plan is to keep him.)
If a player the caliber of Leon was exposed by another team (even if they had injury concerns), I’d expect the jets -and their fans – to be all over it.
I nearly always side with retaining guys though. I’d be a hopeless GM. In this case though, I do think it’s the smart play.
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Sack-
You can sing your own praises all you want, but it doesn’t change the fact that you’re wrong about TJ being just an “above-average” back.
Here are a few of the facts:
1. TJ has gained more than 1,000 yards in each of the past five seasons. And in three of those five seasons, he rushed for over 1,300 yards.
2. In 2008, Jones led the AFC in rushing.
3. In 2009, TJ had his best season ever, with over 1,400 yards rushing.
4. In 2009, Jones had 14 rushing TDs. In 2008, he had 13 rushing TDs.
5. In the past five seasons, TJ has not fumbled the ball more than twice in any season. And he’s lost only two fumbles in the past four years.
6. On Oct 18, 2009, TJ rushed for a Jets franchise record of 210 yards.
As for the comparison between Shonn and TJ, this one stat is particularly telling:
Over the past four years, TJ lost only two fumbles in over 1,200 carries. Last year, Shonn lost three fumbles in just 108 carries.
That’s one lost fumble every 36 carries for Shonn. And one lost fumble every 1,000 carries for TJ.
So, yes, I’ll ABSOLUTELY take a RB who loses a fumble once every 1,000 carries with 4.2 YPC, 1,400 yards rushing, and 14 TDs OVER a RB who loses a fumble once every 36 carries with 5.0 YPC, 540 yards, and 2 TDs.
As for whether TJ is going to perform “until he’s 40 without any deterioration,” I never said that. You did. Which means that you’re just setting up a strawman to knock down.
All I’m saying is that there’s plenty of serious reasons to believe that TJ is going to be a Jet in 2010:
1. Rex loves him.
2. It’s an uncapped year.
3. There are serious trade restrictions on the Jets in 2010.
4. Going into 2010, it’s going to be extremely difficult to acquire a RB with TJ’s numbers.
5. TJ is coming over his best season ever in 2010.
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Bent-
Sure, I’m up for a friendly wager with Hank, say, $100.
If TJ is cut or traded before the 2010 season begins, I pay Hank $100.
If TJ is in green and white for the first 2010 regular season game, then Hank pays me $100.
One question, though: can you vouch for Hank? I mean, that he’ll pay up?
(Okay, okay, I know you were only kidding. But I’m truly willing to make the bet!)
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TJ is also one of the leaders of the team.
btw, anyone know if T-Rich plans on playing another season?
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That should have been:
5. TJ is coming off his best season ever going into 2010.
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Bent says:
I was joking too, but Hank did make a bet with another poster last year and he conceded defeat and was going to pay up. That was for charity though.
I think you’re probably right, but I wouldn’t put money on it.
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Bent says:
I haven’t heard on Richardson. Hopefully no news is good news.
On TJ, I wanted to verify my earlier comment that his play dropped off in the last two years too at the end of the year.
In each case, it was the last three games where his numbers dropped off, with no 100 yard games, no games with an average of 4 or better and an overall average of about 3 ypc. He just can’t handle the workload they’ve given him for more than 13 games, it seems. I still think he can play at a high level in future. Even in the Colts game, he looked better than Curtis did in that 2005 season when he basically was finished.
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You cant blame TJ for slowing down.
We did play like 15 weeks in a row to end the season with a lot of them on the road. -
Bent-
This past season, TJ had more than three times as many carries at Shonn (331 to 108).
In 2010, if we give Shonn and Leon a good number of carries, say, at least 200 to 250 between the two of them, then I don’t think TJ (with, say, no more than 200 carries) is going to be as rundown by the end of the season.
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Bent says:
I like that plan.
You’ll like this stat:
Missed tackles by opposing tacklers (including playoffs) when carried by each running back…
Green 20 on 163 carries
Jones 16 on 377
Brad Smith 10 on 20
Leon 6 on 71
Woodhead 1 on 15 -
Bent-
Just so there’s no confusion: I love Shonn as a RB.
It’s just right now, TJ is still the proven vet.
For instance, over the past four years, TJ lost only two fumbles in over 1,200 carries.
Last year, Shonn lost three fumbles in just 108 carries.
That’s one lost fumble every 36 carries for Shonn. And one lost fumble every 600 carries for TJ.
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Sack,
What Ben said.
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Joe B. says:
ronnie -
Did you watch Sanchez’s TD pass to Keller in San Diego? Greene picked up a loose DL as Sanchez was scrambling and kept him occupied for the two seconds it took Keller to get separation. Without Shonn’s block, the TD doesn’t happen, Sanchez is either sacked or has to throw it away. That was a huge, huge play. I agree his ball security needs work (though he didn’t fumble in the playoffs) and durability is a concern, but the kid isn’t a lousy blocker.
Other thoughts on this topic:
I’m in the camp that believes if TJ is willing to accept a reduced/backup role, we have to bring him back. My opinion on TJ is somewhere between Ben’s and Sack’s. I wouldn’t take his rushing yards the last two years at face value. He’s run behind a terrific and healthy O-Line with three Pro Bowlers on it, and in his brief time, Shonn was easily the better runner this year. YPC and missed tackles are more important to me than total yards. At the same time, to assume that because TJ is turning 32 he’s suddenly going to be a totally useless RB is silly. And to imply that we can find a better backup RB on the street or low in the draft is equally silly. We have a RB coming off a 1,400-yard season (total have some use) who theoretically is willing to accept a backup role, and you want to look elsewhere? Why? Because you’re assuming Shonn will get hurt, Leon won’t be his old self and TJ will hit a brick wall on his 32nd? Seems like an awful lot of assumptions to make if we’re going to make RB a priority now.
I also don’t agree with Ben’s carry breakdown. We ran the ball 600+ times this year, and now we’re gonna drop to 400-450 and give TJ the bulk of the carries still?
How I’d like to see it, assuming everyone’s healthy/happy:
Greene – 275
Washington – 125
Jones – 125
Smith – 25
Woodhead/etc. – 20 -
There is nothing wrong with being an “above-average” NFL RB. There are simlply too many to list that were good, solid RBs, but not Hall of Fame caliber. No matter how strongly you say it, Ben, I do not think Jones is an exceptional RB. I do think, however, that Greene has the potential to be something special. So, as an RB, meaning hitting the hole, reading blocks, being elusive, breaking tackles, making long runs, etc. Greene is the better RB. Also, you do know that Greene never fumbled in college. As a rookie, Jones fumbled 4 times in a combined 144 rushes and receptions combined, that’s a fumble for every 36 touches. Wow, isn’t that the same as Greene’s this year? What a concept, a rookie fumbles in the NFL and has to learn to secure the ball better. Of course, Greene blew away Jones’ rookie season, but that doesn’t seem to matter for you because you don’t seem to project that rookies will improve and veterans will decline.
As for the concept that Jones will fall off of a cliff at 32, well it’s happened to better backs before. There are, again, dozens of backs whose play declines drastically when they hit a year over 30. I’ve already mentioned C-Mart and Shaun Alexander. Alexander is a great example, at 28 he had an MVP-like season with over 1800 yards rushing, 27 TDs and a 5.1 YPC…all considerably better than anything TJ has done in his career. What happened the next 3 years of his career? Well, he had almost 1000 yards less his next season and 19 fewer TDs and his YPC went down to 3.6 and it was further downhill after that. So, Joe B. and Ben, is it that “silly” that Jones could have the same drop off? C-Mart also came off of his best season and the next season his career was over and, again, C-Mart was a better RB. Those are 2 RBs, like TJ, who came off the best season of their career and then, poof, career over. Even Walter Payton, probably the most consistent RB in NFL history, had 4 straight Pro Bowl (and 2 All-Pro) seasons from 29-32 called it quits at 33 and Payton was THE leader of the Bears for over a decade! Point is that it’s not a steady decline for older RBs, it’s a cliff fall. So, given this reality, why place the future of the franchise in the hands of an RB who will inevitably decline? The Jets need a better Plan B.
Oh, and for the “better RB off the street” comment, I think I advocated taking an RB as high as the 2nd round or trying to trade back into the 3rd or 4th rounds. Moreover, guys like Ryan Grant, Cedric Benson, Michael Turner, Pierre Thomas, and Ahmad Bradshaw, and others were all either 2nd day picks, UDFAs, signed off of practice squads, or acquired for a bag of donuts. It’s not as unlikely as you posit that the Jets could get an RB who would be better for the team at this point in time (younger, cheaper, faster, able to play special teams, etc.) in the 5th round or later or “off the street.” Plus, Shonn had nagging injuries, Washington is coming off a leg injury and has an uncertain contract situation and Jones is a year older when by 32 many great RBs are done. What am I assuming? I think Joe B. is assuming that Greene will stay healthy all 16 games (something he hasn’t done, yet), Leon will be signed and be the same (unknowable at this point) and Jones will be exactly as he was at 31 (just unlikely from a biological standpoint). There’s just too much risk there when this team relies on the running game so heavily.
I think TJ is a good RB, I defended him after his first mediocre season with the Jets because the OL was poor, now the OL is the best in the NFL and there are many RBs given the opportunity that would be equally productive. And, for the record, while Jones had more yards in ’09 over ’08, his YPC declined from 4.5 to 4.2. And, don’t tell me it was because of 8-men in the box because behind the same (and better in ’09) OL, Greene had a 5.0 YPC. Expecting TJ to be the same RB at 32 as he was at 31, 30, or 29 is folly and a potentially very expensive one for the Jets.
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Sack-
1. You admit that you’re not surprised that as a rookie, Shonn lost 3 fumbles in just 108 carries, or one lost fumble every 36 carries.
To justify this, you bring up TJ’s rookie season, and say that TJ also fumbled a lot back then.
But you’re just making my point, Sack:
TJ IS NOT A ROOKIE NOW. SHONN IS. WHICH MEANS THAT SHONN IS STILL UNPROVEN.
There’s no reliable way to know now if SG is going to fumble at the same rate next season, or not. But there is a reliable way to know that TJ won’t be losing one fumble every 36 carries in 2010: past performance.
TJ:
1,200 CARRIES: 2 LOST FUMBLES.
One lost fumble every 600 carries.Shonn:
108 CARRIES: 3 LOST FUMBLES.
One lost fumble every 36 carries.On that basis alone, I’d favor TJ over Shonn in 2010.
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2. Sack, you write in an earlier post above: “The best thing that Jones has going for him is the good fortune of being behind one of the NFL’s great run-blocking OLs.”
Then in your most recent post, you write that during TJ’s first season with the Jets, “the OL was poor.”
But Jones gained over 1,100 yards that first year with the Jets, even with, as you admit, A POOR O LINE.
In other words, you suggest in one post that TJ’s accomplishments are completely dependent upon the greatness of his O line, then in another post, you admit that the O line was “poor” even when Jones rushed for over 1,100 yards.
And here’s another point to consider: Shonn gained ALL of his yards in the NFL behind that same great O line, and he gained most of his yards toward the end of the season when that O line was at its best and (according to members of the O line themselves) beginning to gel (that is, beginning to gel in Callahan’s new zone block system).
In other words, there’s no way to prove that Shonn would be able to gain any yards whatsoever behind a “poor” O line: he’s never run behind one in the NFL.
But there is a way to prove that even with a “poor” O line, TJ, at a minimum, can gain over 1,100 yards. Because he’s already done it.
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3. You keep beating this dead horse about how other backs in the league hit a wall, as you put it, “a year over 30.”
But by your logic, we should have cut TJ, then, BEFORE the 2009 season began, when Jones was 31.
And yet, TJ had his best year ever in 2009 at the age of 31, scoring 14 TDs, and gaining over 1,400 yards.
All of which is to say, your logic here is, to put it kindly, a little silly.
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Look, Sack, I think you and I have spent enough time and thread space going back and forth on this. So maybe it’s time to give it a rest.
Toward that end, here are a few things that (I hope) we can agree on:
1. With one rookie season under his belt, Shonn Greene gives every indication of being a terrific RB. He looks to be the RB of the Jets’ future, for years to come, and I hope he is.
2. If Thomas Jones doesn’t perform well in 2010–if he doesn’t gain at least 1,000 yards, if he doesn’t score at least 10 TDs, if he doesn’t gain at least 4.2 YPC–then the Jets won’t bring him back for 2011.
3. If Shonn loses 3 fumbles in his first 100 or 150 or 200 carries in 2010, he won’t be getting the ball very much more. And he might not be back in 2011.
All of which is to say, we may disagree on a few things, Sack, but I think it’s safe to say that we both value Shonn and TJ as RBs. And maybe we should leave it at that.
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Sorry, Ben, but I can’t leave some of what you said alone. First, you have this fixation on total yards as opposed to YPC. So what TJ gained over 1100 yards in 2007? His YPC was under 4. And, I believe that Greene, because he has more breakaway ability would’ve done better than TJ in 2007, like he did in limited carries with a better OL in 2009.
Second, fumbles. Rookie QBs throw interceptions, rookie RBs fumble, rookie WR have drops and run the wrong routes. I cited TJ’s fumbles to show that as part of the natural maturation of a running back, the good ones learn to stop fumbling, like TJ did or Tiki Barber or countless others. I just don’t think fumbling is that big an issue for Greene and he showed in the playoffs that he can control the fumbling and he did not fumble at all his last, Doak Walker Award winning season at Iowa. Plus, the NFL is littered with RBs who had fumbling issues their entire careers. So, you’re telling me that you’d rather have Jones over Adrian Peterson? I don’t think Greene has a fumbling issue, I just think he was a rookie. Plus, I can tell you right now, if Greene loses 3 fumbles in his first 100 carries, Rex will work on him so he doesn’t fumble in his next 150+ because Greene is the future of this team. Heck, Bill Simmons regularly cries about how the Pats passed on Greene with all of their 2nd round picks. If you really think that Greene will be off of the Jets even if he has 7 fumbles in 300 carries (like Peterson), you’re loco.
Third, age. You entirely miss my point on age. It’s a dual function of age AND workload. TJ has had over 1500 carries the past 5 years. In 2007, it was obvious that TJ had plenty of tread left on his tires because he was lightly rushed early in his career. That’s just not true anymore. I think the tread is gone and, as even Bent has said, TJ has tailed off 2 seasons in a row. And, coming off a career high in carries and yards is a warning sign, not an indication that he can still be productive.
Also, you just can’t admit that Jones was a liability in the playoffs. How else would you describe an RB that could not break 3 YPC? Maybe, TJ has hit the wall and maybe he hasn’t. But, why rely on a question mark when the running game is uber-important for the Jets’ success?
I think we both want the same thing, a Jets Super Bowl victory. I just think that is made more likely with a better back up RB for Greene than TJ or, at least, another option. You disagree. Now, we can leave it at that.
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Sack-
Don’t know about you, but I’m getting tired of this exchange, tired of the two of us repeating ourselves over and over and over again.
So just a few more points, and then I’m done:
1. For every rookie who fumbled as much as Shonn and then went on to greatness, there are at least as many rooks—and probably a whole hell of a lot more—who were a bust.
In other words, it’s just too soon to say whether or not Shonn is going to be the RB we both hope he will be.
2. TJ didn’t hit a wall at the end of the 2009 season. He was injured. But when TJ is injured, he sucks it up, he’s a gamer, he plays.
To judge Jones based on his play while he was injured is beyond silly. It would be like judging Shonn for going down in the AFC Championship game, and NOT going back out on the field, NOT contributing, NOT playing.
3. You say TJ is the question mark. I say Jones is the proven vet. You say Shonn is already a lock to be the future of the team. I say Greene is the question mark, with only one rookie season under his belt.
I’d start TJ in 2010 because he’s been effective for the previous five years. You’d start Shonn in 2010 because he’s been effective for the second half of one rookie season.
I’d make Shonn prove that he can hold onto the ball, and that he can play without getting injured. You’d cut or trade TJ to find another RB as a back-up to Greene.
Well, Sack, Shonn may be a future All Pro. I hope he is—I love the guy as a RB. But it’s also possible that he could be prone to injury, or could fumble his way onto the bench.
All of which is to say, neither of us knows the future, Sack.
All we can do from the sidelines is hope for the best, hope for a Super Bowl.
And maybe we should leave it at that.
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Well… that’s interessting but to be honest i have a hard time visualizing it… wonder how others think about this..
Shonn Greene showed tremendous potential, in his rookie season. But, as many Jet fans have noted, he has to show us that he can stay healthy and hold on to the ball, before we get rid of one of the best RB’s in the NFL. Thomas Jones is a solid runner, a solid citizen, and a Jet leader. His performance, over the past few years, should have earned him his bonus’ and a new two-year contract. This does not mean that Shonn won’t get the majority of the carries. We have a monster schedule in 2010-2011. Our offense starts with the run. We will need TJ, Shonn, Leon, and Woodhead, if we plan on going into the playoffs with a healthy running game.