Approval Ratings: RB Thomas Jones
Over the next few days, we want to hear from you about players, coaches and front office staff and whether you approve or disapprove of their contributions to the team.
Basically, do you want them to stay on in 2010?
Thomas Jones’s 2009 Highlights:
- Said what we were all thinking on Hot 97.
- Took a softer tone on the subject.
- Skipped some workouts to make a point.
- Skipped some more workouts.
- Returned to camp in May.
- Refused to discuss his contract with the press.
- Scored twice in his first game.
- Disproved some of the “RB after 30” rules.
- Took a larger role with the injury of Leon.
- Benefitted down the stretch against some bad teams.
- Carried Jets in win over Bills.
- Went for 1,000 in his fifth straight season.
- Started splitting carries down the stretch.
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153 Responses to Approval Ratings: RB Thomas Jones
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R3V1S 15LANd says:
approve yes, want back necessarily no..
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SackDance99 says:
I think you have to approve of his 2009 season, but endorse him as Greene’s back up in 2010? No way, it’s time to get younger and have Sanchez be the leader of the offense.
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Brendan says:
I don’t really care one way or the other with TJ. Approval for this season and I’m surprised as many people didn’t approve as did.
But let’s face some facts, his age is a factor. His production has tailed off considerably at the end of the past 3 seasons. He’s not going to want to be a lame-duck RB and will want a new contract. Whether he makes a stink in preseason or not is anyone’s guess, but he’s played good soldier so I don’t think he would. How is he going to take to being a backup? How is he going to take no longer being the offensive leader, as that job belongs to Sanchez. These are legitimate worries, and paying $5 million for a backup is a lotttttt to pay a backup. Jamal Lewis just got released, not saying I want him, but guys like him, that can be relied on to play in a pinch, are going to be increasingly available and it will be a buyer’s market with all the cuts coming.
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Bent says: Imagine if we did this every few months, TJ’s rating would have rollercoastered between really low and really high! In preseason and at the end of the season for the last few years it would have been really low, but in the middle of the season, it would have been really high.
He’s past his prime, but I think he’s got another decent year left in him and, conveniently, another year on his contract.
One scenario I only just thought about: maybe they’ll retain him, pay his roster bonus and bring him to camp. Then if he looks like he isn’t going to contribute, they can release him (saving $3m of salary) and pickup a cutdown guy or even trade for a surplus veteran backup for less than a million. Total cost $4m instead of the $6m they would otherwise pay Jones, but they at least get a chance to make sure he’s worthwhile to keep around, rather than getting rid of him before his bonus is due and spending about $2-3m a year on another RB that could just as easily turn out to be a letdown.
One problem with this is that Jones, like C-Mart before him, usually looks like crap in preseason/camp.
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sjfalcon2001 says:
Overall I approve of 2009′s performance, but I’m not sold on keeping him in 2010, given his contract and the development of Greene.
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BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
He will be costly, so wouldn’t want to over-spend for his services. But at the right price, I like this guy’s leadership in the locker room, and the fact that he didn’t let his salary demands affect his play last season.
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Ed L says:
we would be crazy not to keep him in 2010….until green learns to run the ball better (ball security and protecting his body better) and leon comes back to full strength we need him and his leadership on the team
TJ brings a fire to the offense with his personality and work ethic plus i wouldnt mind having him around greene for another season…
i feel like losing TJ will be a really bad decision
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and plus you guys are all so quick to cut and trade people away…there is a reason this team made it to the afc championship game….they only need to add a few small pieces here and there to make another solid run….
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The offensive line got us there.
TJ would be the most expensive backup RB in football by a lot.
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To continue being a top rushing team, the Jets need to unleash hell on the opposing defense for 4 quarters and OT of every single game of the 2010 season. My problem with Jones is that he was far below average for 5 of the Jets last 6 games. Coupled with his age and the basic fact that RBs decline as they get into their 30s, especially RBs that just spent the past 5 seasons getting over 1500 carries, then how smart is it for the Jets to rely on him as Greene’s back up? And, Jones didn’t exactly embrace the back up role with Chicago when they drafted Benson. I would prefer to have a back up with fresher legs.
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BigKatFan says:
Bring him back. Leon wont be the same and Greene will Sophomore slump
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Mark says:
Bring him back. I think he’s still got some gas in the tank.
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Ben Nevis says:
Bent-
I think we’re going to know what the Jets are going to do with TJ on or about March 5. If he’s paid the $3 million, I think there’s no way he gets cut in 2010.
If the FO wants TJ gone, he doesn’t see that $3 million come March 5.
But as another poster said on a previous thread, Mike T’s MO in situations such as these—situation where he doesn’t want to pay a player, and wants that player gone—is trash him in the press: in order to pave the way (in the public’s mind) for not paying him, not keeping him around.
So far, there hasn’t been any trash talk about TJ coming from the FO, and March 5 is just about a couple of weeks away.
So if I were making book on this, I’d have to bet that TJ is getting paid in early March, and that he’s a Jet for 2010.
Of course, if Shonn turns out to be the RB he all hope he will be in 2010—gaining over 1,000 yards, and not getting injured, not fumbling the ball—then TJ is gone in 2011.
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That should have been: Of course, if Shonn turns out to be the RB we all hope he will be in 2010—gaining over 1,000 yards, and not getting injured, not fumbling the ball—then TJ is gone in 2011.
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trevor says:
why dont we want to keep jones????
hes been running great for the past few yrs for the jets and is going to get reduced carries now because of leon and shonne…..so he will not be fatigued
keep the rb position strong please….
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head_coach says:
i aprove. I was one of the people that was saying trade for Cj Spiller but jones is cool for another year.
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There are two issues this post raises:
First, did Thomas Jones perform well enough in 2009 to be back in 2010?
Second, did Shonn Greene perform well enough in 2009 so that we don’t need TJ back in 2010.
Let’s take the second question first:
Joe Caporoso of TOTJ makes the argument that Shonn did NOT perform well enough this past season that we don’t need Thomas Jones back next season. Here (below) are JC’s major points:
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1. Shonn had multiple injury issues in 2009:
—SG missed nearly all of the pre-season and was inactive in week 1 with a rib injury.
—SG was knocked out in the second half of the AFC Championship Game with a rib injury.
—SG also had an ankle injury during training camp.
—SG was on the injury report late in the regular season with a shoulder injury.
_____________________________________2. Shonn had some pretty poor performances in 2009:
—8 carries for 18 yards against Miami
—7 carries for 26 yards against Jacksonville
—10 carries for 36 yards against Carolina
—8 carries for 30 yards against Atlanta
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3. Shonn looked like a future 1500 yard back in the playoffs but don’t forget he 3 lost fumbles during the regular season.
—TJ:
TWO LOST FUMBLES IN 1,200 CARRIES
one lost fumble every 600 caries—Shonn:
THREE LOST FUMBLES IN 108 CARRIES
one lost fumble every 36 carriesYou can make an argument that SG CAN possibly correct this problem, but there’s no way of knowing that he definitely WILL correct it, and do so for the entire length of an NFL season.
And to say he didn’t fumble in college is meaningless. The NFL is not college. Hundreds, if not thousands, of players thrive in college, then are a complete bust in the pros.
_____________________________________4. It is a big step going from being a #1 back for 2 and 1/2 games to being a #1 back for an entire season.
There is just no evidence whatsoever to suggest that Shonn can take a pounding over the course of 16 games in the NFL. There is no evidence that he can play through an injury.
We already know that TJ can take a pounding, and play through an injury. We already know that TJ can play 16 games, and gain over 1,300 yards (as he has in three of the past five years).
______________________________________All of which is to say, there just isn’t enough of a solid argument, based on the facts, to get rid of TJ, and to depend completely on Shonn as our feature back.
Especially in an uncapped year.
I think it’s possible that Shonn may prove during 2010 that he should be our feature back, that he can hold onto the ball, and not fumble, that he can stay off the injury list, that he can play through an injury, that he can take a pounding over the course of 16 NFL games.
And if SG does prove all this, well, then he’ll be our feature back in 2011. And TJ will be gone.
But if SG fumbles as much as he did in 2009, if he fumbles his way onto the bench, if he gets injured as much as he did in 2009, well, then we’ll know that we probably can’t depend on him. And TJ will be our feature back in 2010.
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Now the other question:
Did Thomas Jones perform well enough to be back in 2010?
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1–In 2009, Jones had his best year ever, with over 1,400 yards rushing, and 14 rushing TDs
2–In 2008, Jones led the AFC in rushing, with over 1,300 yards. (He also had 13 rushing TDs.)
3–TJ has gained more than 1,000 yards in each of the past five seasons. And in three of those five seasons, he rushed for over 1,300 yards.
4–On Oct 18, 2009, TJ rushed for a Jets franchise record of 210 yards.
5–TJ’s longest run of the season was 71 yards, with additional runs of 39, 33, and 29.
(By comparison, Shonn’s longest run of 2009 was 33 yards, with additional runs of 25, 21, and 17.)
6–Near the end of Jets v Chargers, the game is on the line, it’s 4th and 1, and who does Rex give the ball to? A healthy Shonn, or an injured TJ? Rex gives the ball to the vet. And TJ seals the victory, TJ gets that yard. Arguably, the most important yard of our entire season.
7–Jones has lost only two fumbles in over 1,200 carries during the past FOUR YEARS.
TJ:
1,200 CARRIES: 2 LOST FUMBLES.
One lost fumble every 600 carries.Shonn:
108 CARRIES: 3 LOST FUMBLES.
One lost fumble every 36 carries.
_______________________________________Just so there’s no confusion: I’m rooting for Shonn to be an All Pro, I’m rooting for him to gain over 1,000 yards, I’m rooting for him to win the starting job. But he has to earn it. And 108 carries in one rookie season with 3 lost fumbles and 3 injuries doesn’t guarantee him that starting job. Not yet, anyway. Not with Rex as the head coach.
All of which is to say, I think it’s highly likely that Thomas Jones is a Jet in 2010.
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Approve for his overall career as a Jet RB…… Its time for him to get a reduced role and be a veteran back that splits carries.
I love what he has brought to the team but he is and can be replaced. He is a quality person and player even at 32. But those carries have added up and unless he is the greatest RB of all time he will start to breakdown. I would rather have it not happen as our leading rusher.
This is Greene, Leon, Keller, Cotchery and Sanchez’s team now
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I keep on reading about Shonn Greene’s fumbling. Let’s put his fumbling in perspective. His last fumble of the season was in the Tampa Bay game. To that point, he fumbled 3 times, and lost all three fumbles in only 61 carries. What happened after that? He had 0 fumbles in his next 91 carries, including the playoffs. That’s a pretty good streak and given that he didn’t fumble at Iowa in his Doak Walker Award-winning final season, let’s chalk his fumbling up to a rookie learning the ropes. As for injuries, Greene has to bulk up and maybe wear different padding to protect his ribs, but it’s not like he had an injury plagued season. He was banged up in camp and then in the 19th game of the season was banged up in the 3rd quarter. If the Jets had made the Super Bowl, he would’ve been ready.
I look at Greene’s season and see progress: he finally learned his lessons on ball security and really performed when he was the workhorse. The weakness that I saw in the Jets was that when he left the Colts game, the Jets did not have an adequate back up. To me, Greene isn’t the question mark; it’s Jones as his back up.
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Ben might go on a homicide spree if they cut TJ. This at least the 3rd time he’s quoted that one article.
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To add to SD’s point, TJ had the same fumble issues as a rook (3 fumbles in just 4 more carries than Greene), so it’s not like these issues are likely to stick around for Greene, as he began to show already when he became the feature back at the end of the year.
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StvDoe says:
As many have said, all he costs is Woodys money. Unless you care about Woody’s money, (and who would?), bringing him back is a no brainer.
What possible downside can there be to his return? Even if his role becomes that of a proven back-up, he’s a valuable piece. If he fails miserably, which I seriously doubt would happen, all you lost was money.
What possible upside can there be to his departure? Were’ back to Woody’s money and nothing else.
A high character guy with a terrific work ethic who mentors his teammates. Could keeping him be an easier call?
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Bent says:
Seems to me that if Greene’s fumbling and durability are concerns, who better to pair him with than Jones, a guy who overcame similar issues and is a real gym rat.
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Some on this thread don’t like to see the points made by Joe Caporoso of TOTJ, but I haven’t yet seen one commenter on any TJB thread refute effectively what JC said.
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To say, for instance, the Shonn made continuous and steady progress during the course of the season simply isn’t true.
The poor performances Greene had (which are cited above) came against Miami, Jacksonville, Carolina and Atlanta in mid and late season:
—week 8
—week 10
–week 12
–week 15
Shonn had between 2.3 YPC and 3.8 YPC in each of these four games.
____________________________________
To say that TJ fumbled several times his rookie year, as if this somehow EXCUSES Shonn’s three lost fumbles in 2009, is simply ridiculous.
Thomas Jones is ten years removed from his rookie season.
Shonn Greene is two months removed from his rookie season.
Shonn lost more fumbles in 2009 (three) than TJ has lost in the past FOUR YEARS (two).
TJ is NOT playing his second season in the league in 2010. Shonn is.
_______________________________________As for Shonn’s multiple injuries last season, he wasn’t able to play through them. TJ was injured down the stretch, but DID play through his injuries.
In other words, SG has not yet proven that he can take a pounding over the course of an entire NFL season, and stay healthy, stay on the field.
TJ has done this for at least the past five years.
Shonn didn’t play in the first three games of the season. And he had four carries or less in each of four other games in 2009.
Which means that SG played essentially half the season.
Which is not enough to prove that he deserves to be our only feature back in 2010.
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ramble914 says:
Approve! He’s been a warrior for us. And unless we have someone better, we should keep him for one more season.
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Bent,
Sure, hire TJ as the RB and Conditioning coach. I’m all for that, but if he has to come in during the 3rd quarter of the AFC Championship game with the Jets tied or losing by less than a TD, I have no confidence that he can average over 3 YPC. If he ends up being an unreliable back up, the Jets would’ve squandered both Woody’s money (which I don’t care about) and a chance to go to the Super Bowl (which I do care about). I guess it gets back to the different ways we broke down the Jets-Colts game. I saw a guy who couldn’t hit the holes fast enough to follow his blockers. Something that plagued him for 5 of the last 6 games of the season.
I don’t really care if the Jets keep Jones. I just want a viable plan B (another “between the tackles” runner) in case Jones is done. An RB/FB combo would be good because he could be groomed to take over for T-Rich and I think an FB that can run and catch would be a good addition to this offense.
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NorCal says:
And for the commentors who feel TJ will make some sort of “contract issue” or will have an issue with a reduced role “like in Chicago”, I say give me a break! TJ’s contract “issues” were that he was worried he would never see the money for the final year of his contract. And as far as having a reduced role, is it too much to think he might just realize he is at a different point of his career, and splitting reps on this offense might be what pro-longs that career? It’s not like other teams are going to be in a hurry to throw money at a 30+ running back, and as many of you pointed out, there will be several available. I see Thomas playing good soldier and contributing on this team. And who cares about the salary savings? Only Woody. And let’s not kid ourselves, it won’t be that much of a savings compared to the risk being taken.
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mike says:
TJs a leader on this team and I for one definitely want him back. I would rather not waste one of our few draft pics on a running back and we cannot enter the season with shonn greene and a questionable leon. TJ had a ridiculous season and no one knows how hurt he was during the playoffs. I completely agree that every time he touched the ball in the playoffs I was thinking this should be greene but still I want to keep greene fresh and with us running the ball 35-40 times a game, there will be plenty of carries to go around.
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Ok Ben, I guess you like ignoring me.
“The poor performances Greene had (which are cited above) came against Miami, Jacksonville, Carolina and Atlanta in mid and late season:”
And yet, Greene had a higher YPC than Jones in 3 of those 4 games and had an equal YPC in the 4th game.
“To say that TJ fumbled several times his rookie year, as if this somehow EXCUSES Shonn’s three lost fumbles in 2009, is simply ridiculous.”
We point out TJ’s struggles with fumbling his rookie year to show it’s a TEMPORARY problem. This was made evident as SD pointed out earlier “To that point, he fumbled 3 times, and lost all three fumbles in only 61 carries. What happened after that? He had 0 fumbles in his next 91 carries,” Greene clearly got better the more work he had.
SG had little carries in those games because…..Leon wasn’t hurt. To say that he played 1/2 a season is just wrong. Over the last 13 weeks Greene averaged 12 carries per game, with only one of those “four carries or less” games coming in that stretch.
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The ger says:
TJ needs to be kept around he’s a team leader and a work horse. Let him take all the pounding during the reg season like he did this year and then have green and or Washington with fresh and healthy legs going into the post season or late in games he won’t complain n he won’t stop inspiring his teamates he’s our new Curtis Martin
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Elliot says:
First of all, you have to be absolutely insane to disapprove of TJ.
Second, I know it’s not popular but I really think keeping TJ another year is a good idea. I think a HUGE reason why Greene ran so well in the playoffs was how fresh he was relative to defensive players. To keep Greene running at his best, we need another RB who can grind up yards and move the offense for multiple series at a time. I like Leon a lot but he’s not that kind of back. I think using TJ in the reg season a lot will be the key to having Greene produce more breakout playoff performances and more back-breaking fourth quarter runs where he plows through fatigued tacklers.
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Ben,
Let’s see.
First, Greene OUTPERFORMED Jones in YPC against Carolina (3.6 to 3.0) and Atlanta (3.75 to 2.74). So, Caporoso was wrong for saying these were poor games when Greene did better than Jones.
Second, starting after his last fumble in the Tampa Bay game, Greene OUTPERFORMED Jones through the end of the regular season without fumbling. He improved not only as the season went on, but also when the games became more pressure packed and important. Thus, Caparoso is wrong for saying that Greene didn’t improve as the season went on.
Third, Caporoso misses the point on fumbling in two respects. First, rookies fumble, that’s why the comparison to Jones is valid. Second, Caporoso fails to note that in his last 91 carries when the Jets season was on the line, Greene did not fumble. Why doesn’t that indicate that Greene has overcome his fumbling issues, like most rookies do and as Jones did.
Fourth, Caporoso fails to note that the injury issue cuts both ways and is somewhat cloudy. First, we do not know whether it was the coaching staff that limited Greene or Greene himself. Second, we have no idea what types of aches and pains Greene was dealing with this season. Third, the fact that Jones has played through pain over the past 5 years and 1500 carries is not a positive fact for 2010 at 32 years old. Considering the way he limped home at the finish, maybe TJ has finally hit the wall. It’s not statistically sound to just look at last season and expect that Jones will be as good or better. Sooner or later, all those carries and hits take their toll. Like I said in a response to you earlier, I believe that only Walter Payton was a feature back with an over 4.0 YPC at the age of 32. And, with all due respect to TJ, he’s just not in the same league as Sweetness. When the only reference point is one of the 5 greatest RBs in NFL history, you know there’s a problem.
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Some commenters seem to enjoy making specious arguments.
Such as: because back A had three lost fumbles as a rookie, and back B had three lost fumbles as rookie, then back A = back B.
The problem with this line of reasoning is obvious, or should be.
There are plenty of RBs in the history of the league who performed poorly (ie, three lost fumbles) in their rookie season who did NOT improve in their second or third seasons.
And there are comparatively few RBs who performed poorly (ie, three lost fumbles) in their rookie season, and then excelled in subsequent seasons.
So while it’s POSSIBLE that a back (Shonn Greene) who lost three fumbles in his rookie season MIGHT be able to correct that problem in future seasons, it is in no way a CERTAINTY that he will.
And to say that another back did correct his fumbling ways; therefore, a different back will do so as well, is, well, like saying:
Einstein is a scientist who lived in New Jersey and he discovered relativity; therefore, since I am a scientist who lives in New Jersey, I have just as much of a chance of making a scientific breakthrough as Einstein did.
_____________________________________Another specious argument:
A given back (SG) did NOT play at all in three games, and played very little (four carries or less) in another four games. In other words, he was not on the field for any significant length of time in seven games, or roughly half the season.
Now to argue that the reason the given back (SG) did not play (there was a superior RB available)–that this CHANGES the number of games the back (SG) played (ie, “To say that [SG] played 1/2 a season is just wrong”), this argument is beyond silly.
The RB still played the same number of games (roughly half the season), no matter what the reason.
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And, finally, one more specious argument:
To argue that back A (SG) outperformed back B (TJ) when back A played roughly half the games in a given season, and when back A had rougly one-third the carries (108 to 331) of back B is like saying:
Gambler A won $540 in four months in 2009.
Gambler B won $1,402 over the course of twelve months in 2009.
Therefore, Gambler A is a better gambler than Gambler B.
Sorry, but the logic doesn’t hold. We don’t know what Gambler A would have done over the course of those additional eight months.
There isn’t any way we could POSSIBLY know this.
And the only way to know it with any certainty is to watch Gambler A perform over the course of an entire year (2010), and see if he then does outperform Gambler B.
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Why would it be a waste of a draft pick to get an RB? The Titans and Panthers both used top picks on RBs within 3 years and guess which teams rounded out the top 3 rushing teams this season with the Jets? Miami, the 4th team, has 2 high 1st rounders as their main RBs. The Jets are a run-first team and maintaining that edge is critically important for the Jets’ success. I’m not saying that the Jets need to use the 1st rounder for an RB, but any round after that would be okay with me. In any event, whether the Jets keep Jones or not, adding another viable “between the tackles” option would be a prudent decision given Jones’ decline and Washington’s rehab.
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Bent says:
Sack – Maybe Jones didn’t look so good over those last six games, but he had already carried the ball 250 times. If Greene starts and Leon is healthy, then Jones has to step in during the postseason, he won’t have had nearly as many carries, so hopefully he’ll more closely resemble the guy who looked strong for his first 200 or so carries…and he’ll still have Leon to split carries with.
I did note that he looked slow in the AFC title game, but he was apparently injured, so I still believe he can return to being a productive player, just as he did in the last two years while everyone wrote him off and said he was finished because he struggled at the end of the year.
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Ben, I got everything you said up to the point of the word “specious”…
:-)
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Bent says:
That’s the one with Natasha Henstridge in, right?
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Ben,
I could deconstruct all of your arguments, but I don’t have the time or inclination. But, your biggest problem is not citing any concrete NFL examples to prove your points, only empty rhetoric and bombastic verbiage. For instance, using Emmit Smith as an example, he fumbled 7 times his rookie season, 8 times his league-leading second season and 7 times in 1995, one of the greatest seasons by an RB in NFL history as a 6-year pro. I cite this to show you that your premise is wrong. Fumbling is an issue, but if an RB’s production is good enough, fumbles are not the huge issue that you have made it to be. Emmit averaged over 4 fumbles a season for his HOF career. But, nobody remembers Emmit as a fumbler. Now, Peterson fumbles a lot. What team in the NFL would turn him down? Plus, you simply fail to address that in Greene’s last 91 carries, he did not fumble. So, that Greene has a fumbling issue is, in and of itself, debatable. But, in any event, your first argument on fumbling is unsound when applied to actual facts.
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LOL….I didn’t see that one, Bent.
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Sack,
I question if it’s prudent to draft a RB given our needs in other areas and balancing the current relative value of Jones. Of course we COULD use another between the tackle runner, just as we COULD use another quality player in ANY position.
But unless you know that Jones will prove to be ineffective next year, I’d surmise our resources would be better spent elsewhere.
So I guess what this REALLY comes down to is your conviction that TJ is done and my belief he isn’t. Or am I wrong in believing that you think drafting another RB is a must?
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Bent,
No concern that at 32 Jones cannot rebound as he did the last 2 seasons? You would agree that, eventually, his tank will be empty. You just don’t think it will be in 2010 at 32 years old?
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miketaliaferro says:
I love this nonsense.
I frankly don’t understand why Jones has never truly been embraced by NYJ fans since his arrival from Chicago.
What the hell does this guy gotta do for some of you guys?! Come put a new garage on your house? Give you some of his car collection? Build you a new deck or something? This is nuts.
We had NOBODY when C-Mart went out. NOBODY! Tanny smartly spent relatively next to nothing and got a SuperBowl RB from a team in love with a young, sexy stud (Benson).
All TJ did was come here for 2007, and run for 1,000+ yards behind a line that stunk by Pop Warner standards, on a rotten team. They got Chad hurt, and they pretty much destroyed KC’s career. But TJ still got his 1,000+ yds and kept us in a lot of games that year we didn’t deserve to be in.
In 2008, Tanny buys an OL and Voila! TJ runs to an AFC RUSHING TITLE and team TD record. And half this board trashed him all summer.
In 2009, with few fans getting his back, he planned to share the full RB load with Leon (WHO else does that off a title?), without so much as a peep. Waits patiently, game after game, until the OL figures out the new zone blocking system Callaghan installed in camp. Again, early on, fans dog him for not dashing thru holes that don’t exist. Once the new plan begins to click, Pow! Leon goes down. TJ doesn’t say a word, just goes back to a feature-back in a system where the 1st Q gains minimal yds. while the ‘Ground’ part finds the soft spots and starts to hammer the DL & LBs; the 2nd Half, TJ gets more daylight as the ‘Pound’ part kicks in, and rips off a number of long runs as Ben Nevis pointed out. I believe most of those long runs were from the late 2nd Q through the 2nd Half.
Even with that slow start, TJ runs for 1,400 frickin’ yards!!! In a year he was supposed to share the load — ’cause you all said he was too old. With a new blocking scheme. With EVERY DC keyed all week on stopping the run, putting 47 men in the box on every play.
1,402 yards, gentlemen! By sheer force of will on the part of that OL and TJ, against a box stacked on every play. 1,402 yards was also a personal best — in a year he was supposed to be older than John McCain.
If not for Chris Johnson’s INSANE rushing year, that’s ANOTHER AFC RUSHING TITLE, boys and girls! And Stephen Jackson of the NFC Rams is the only other NFL RB who ran for more yards than Thomas Jones — by a whole whopping 14 yards.
Except for the game vs. the hapless Raiders, SG mostly gets in as TJ’s caddy in the 2nd half to spell him at points.
You wanna talk playoffs? When there would have been NO playoffs if TJ hadn’t run all over everyone from Cincinnati except Johnny Bench?!
OK, playoffs! Dinged probably more seriously than the Jets let on, TJ still showed up to take those ugly 1st Q runs to nowhere. Gaining a yard here or there, as the line began the process of softening up each successive D. Same M.O. as the regular season. But most likely due to the ding, when the time came to take advantage of the bruising of the D line, they put SG’s fresh legs in there and off he goes to daylight! Wow, what kind of no-brainer was THAT???
TJ got the ugly yards, then unselfishly turned it over to SG to get the mostly sexy yards. Great game plan.
I plan on following Rex’s lead on this: When the entire season came down to 1 yard in SD, Rex never blinked — “Let TJ run his play!”
Does TJ get credit for his leadership? His humility? Hell, no!
Folks want to sell him to the glue factory as a broken-down nag who can’t pull a plow any more. So he’s gonna be 32; whatever. He’s a freak of nature; enjoy it. At least, he’s OUR freak of nature.
Why do we love C-Mart so, and yet spend three years with a raging battle over TJ, when they hit so many of the same notes? If TJ was a malcontent, or dogged it, or had up and down years, or shot himself at a nightclub, I could see at least some of what you guys are saying. But, he’s never been anything less than a top-line RB for us. This whole ‘controversy’ doesn’t make sense.
Until further notice — from TJ himself or from Rex — he stands as one of the elite backs in this league.
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“That’s the one with Natasha Henstridge in, right?”
Well played, Mr. Bent!
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BubbyBrister/shovelpass-
LOL. The most amusing thing about a man who makes specious arguments is that when you confront him with the falsity of his logic, he can’t follow it, he denies it.
Then makes another specious argument to defend the ones he’s already made.
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I think most people are between SD99 and Ben Nevis’s arguments here.
I happen to leam more towrds SD99 points since I believe any RB that will split carries behind our OL is replacable and noone can ignore the amout of carries TJ has had the last 5 years and RB history. Unless TJ is the most remarkable RB in NFL history he will breakdown this year. I unlike SD99 would like TJ back on a limited carry basis….. with Greene and Leon getting alot of carries. But if he isnt he can be replaced….we dont not need 1400 yrds and 10+ TDS….we would need a guy who can get 10-15 carries and be a Pro…If its TJ great if not….not a big deal really
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StvDoe,
I just don’t think it’s a waste of a draft pick to get an RB. Plus, the Jets rely heavily on the run; it’s part of what Rex wants Jets football to be. So, given the crucial importance of the running game, depth at RB is a little more important and, unlike OL or even DL where player can still be effective at 35, an RB rarely lasts to his early 30s. TJ has been great and an inspirational player, but having him as the only back up to Greene would make the Jets too thin at a critical position. So, I want the Jets to acquire another between the tackles RB. The draft seems the logical method because RB might be a great value pick in the second round. Right now, Spiller is the only RB projected to go in the 1st round, meaning that the trio of big backs (Dwyer, Blunt and Gerhart) might be around in round 2. I think Gerhart is right out of the Tanny/Rex mold, a smart guy that lives to be a football player and I’d like him on the Jets, but I don’t get into projections until after the Combine. Also, there may be guys cut that could be useful (Buffalo might cut the cord on Lynch). And, Tampa Bay barely used Ward last season, if Tanny wanted, I’m sure he could swing a trade for him. What I’m saying is that the last thing I want to see is Mangold, Moore and Faneca two yards in front of our RB when he gets tackled for a loss. That’s what happens when a back can’t get more than 3 YPC and that was Jones in 5 of his last 6 games.
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LWSquad says:
Keep Jones. A three headed beast is a lot scarier then a two-headed one.
Jet fans can be so funny can’t we. I agree with every person who sees this as simple as it is.
Would you suggest EVER getting rid of a player with the numbers TJ had last year. If you tell me it’s because of his age….Out of our 3 RBs who started every game last year? Nuff said. -
Certain commenters do not understand what a specious argument is. A specious argument is one devoid of fact and reliant upon empty rhetoric. As John Adams said, “facts are stubborn things.” It’s amazing that certain commenters just reel off the same fatuous verbal flatulence without ever addressing the obvious failings of their arguments.
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LW Squad,
Look at C-Mart’s season when he had the most carries and yards of his career, then look at Shaun Alexander’s. Then, look at their next season. Then, look at their ages and look at Jones’ age. Then, look at Jones’ numbers in 5 of his last six games. An RB’s numbers rarely decline gradually, it’s often a cliff dive.
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Sack,
I like I said, you think TJ is done, and the evidence is his YPC at year’s end. I just don’t buy it.
I understand the fear of a RB falling off the table, but given TJ’s work habits AND his relative low carries the first half of his career I remain optimistic that he’ll continue to perform at least well enough to split carries.
BTW, I like Gerhardt and wouldn’t hate it if he was a Jet. But as I said, I just see greater needs.
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Here is just one example of the supposed “fact filled” arguments that have been made on this thread:
________________________________________
Shonn Greene lost three fumbles his rookie season.
Thomas Jones lost three fumbles his rookie season.
Therefore, Shonn Greene = Thomas Jones.
And since TJ has only lost two fumbles in the past four years, then SG will not fumble in 2010, and will lose no fumbles (or, actually less than one fumble) over the next three years.
The logic here is risible. Yes, TJ fumbled three times in his rookie year. But he also fumbled five more times over the next two years, for an average of roughly one fumble every 70 carries.
So, then, if, as Mr. Specious has it, TJ = SG, then one should logically expect SG (in his first three years) to fumble at the same rate that TJ did in his first three years. In other words, one fumble every 70 carries over SG’s first three years in the league.
But Mr. Specious would have you believe that SG in his second season = TJ in his seventh through tenth seasons, when TJ lost only two fumbles in 1,200 carries.
Which is beyond ridiculous.
_____________________________________
But Mr. Specious does not stop there. Instead, he concocts another argument all together, and this one is:
FUMBLING DOES NOT REALLY MATTER.
And to support his claim, he makes yet another specious argument:
That Shonn Greene in his rookie season = Emmit Smith.
There is no basis for equating the two, but this does not deter Mr. Specious. Instead, he goes on with his argument:
Since Emmit Smith is a Hall-of-Fame back and he fumbled at a comparatively high rate, then Shonn Greene is equal to a HOF back.
The logic here is hilarious.
_____________________________________
Finally, it should be noted that Mr. Specious argued repeatedly—on this thread and others—that Shonn Greene would stop fumbling in 2010.
Then when others brought his attention the fact that it is not possible to know the future, Mr. Specious then argued instead that fumbling doesn’t really matter.
When you’re a Hall-of-Fame back, he says, who cares if you fumble?
There are several holes in this line of reasoning, but perhaps the most obvious one is that Shonn Greene is not a Hall-of-Fame back. Not even close.
And right now, no one—no human being in the whole wide world—can tell us how well, or not so well, SG will play in 2010.
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Bent says:
Sack – I ackowledge that, sure, but he doesn’t need to rebound like he did the last few years. Even if he falls back slightly, he’ll still be a good backup. If the question was should we bring him back to carry the load 25 times a game again, I’d agree they need an upgrade. Splitting carries with two other great backs though, with everything he brings to the table? I think he can handle it. Like I said, if he looks like crap in camp, they have a potential out.
Ben and Sack – I admire the arguments you have both put across, but – while I trust both of you to continue this conversation without resorting to namecalling or personal attacks – I don’t like where this is leading in terms of setting the tone for any latecomers to the conversation. You’ve both done a great job of listing out all the pros and cons and will never convince each other, so I politely request that you don’t continue going back and forth dissecting each others posts.
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Bent-
No problem. I hereby state that if other posters do not comment on my posts, I will not comment on theirs.
Also, thanks for your contributions to this thread.
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wallace wright says:
if you disapprove you are an idiot, so he slowed down in the playoffs, he never fumbles and deserves his bonus
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oleosmirf says:
TJ is no longer able to play a full season at a high level but what he can do is keep Greene and Leon fresh until playoff time.
IF TJ is back, the Jets need to understand that the TJ they have in the playoffs is nowhere near as good as he was in week 1.
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sackexchange says:
ok if we could get LT cheaper as a third RB of course people would still hang onto TJ?
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my only problem with TJ is that he leaves alot of yards on the field…..
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LT? That guy has been done for 2 years. That guy also has zero heart.
TJ is twice the player LT is at this point….
I would like TJ back but think he can be repalced…just not by a guy like LT.
If TJ is released get me a hungry RB that will have huge holes to run through with our OL and take whatever carries Greene and Leon leave.
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James in TN says:
Approve!!!! If someone needs cut, it should be that lazy a$$ Gholston.
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approve
I truley believe this is a no brainer we need him for this year. Honor the contract nothin more or less. He deserves it.
We still have questions on Green,and Leon hopefully comes back and doesnt skip a beat. But we dont know.
miketaliaferro
that was a great comment -
john l says:
the second to last stat is fumbles and the last stat is fumbles lost ……oh and by the way this is a hall of famer curtis ” my favorite martin ”
1995-96 New England 16 368 1487 92.9 4.0 14 30 261 16.3 8.7 27 8.1 9 1 5 3
1996-97 New England 16 316 1152 72.0 3.6 14 46 333 20.8 7.2 41 8.4 15 3 4 3
1997-98 New England 13 274 1160 89.2 4.2 4 41 296 22.8 7.2 22 7.4 12 1 3 2
1998-99 NY Jets 15 369 1287 85.8 3.5 8 43 365 24.3 8.5 23 9.1 17 1 5 1
1999-00 NY Jets 16 367 1464 91.5 4.0 5 45 259 16.2 5.8 34 7.3 9 0 2 0
2000-01 NY Jets 16 316 1204 75.3 3.8 9 70 508 31.8 7.3 31 6.1 24 2 2 2
2001-02 NY Jets 16 333 1513 94.6 4.5 10 53 320 20.0 6.0 27 8.2 13 0 2 2
2002-03 NY Jets 16 261 1094 68.4 4.2 7 49 362 22.6 7.4 28 8.7 17 0 0 0
2003-04 NY Jets 16 323 1308 81.8 4.0 2 42 262 16.4 6.2 29 7.2 9 0 2 2
2004-05 NY Jets 16 371 1697 106.1 4.6 12 41 245 15.3 6.0 22 7.2 12 2 2 0
2005-06 NY Jets 12 220 735 61.3 3.3 5 24 118 9.8 4.9 14 5.0 3 0 2 1
Career 168 3518 14101 83.9 4.0 90 484 3329 19.8 6.9 41 7.5 140 10 29 16Last
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John,
Uh, why?
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john l,
Your point being?
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hank/naples says:
Hey SD99:
You like to bringing up C. Mart stats and compare him to TJ? Then take a look at this:
TJ’s last five years TOTAL are only 500 yds short of Martin’s BEST FIVE CONSECUTIVE years Total. And as you have pointed out, that is THE LAST five years from TJ, a 32 year old, dried out RB.
Tell me again how TJ’s is finished !!
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Hey Ben Nevis;
There is no argument there. Green has not proven ANYTHING, Yet!!
TJ has nothing else to prove:6300+ yds the last five years with 27 TDs the last TWO. Getting better with age BABY!!! -
EastSide says:
I think it’s really weird that people don’t want TJ back because they think his postseason production was an indication of what he will produce in ’10-’11. The guy is past his prime but he still contributes steadily and provides the emotion that I’m not sure our young players on offense are quite ready to replace.
I know RBs are renowned for their sudden declines (CMart, Corey Dillon, Shaun Alexander, LT…), but I’m surprised that people seem to think TJ will be less likely to produce next year than Jenkins who suffered by all accounts a very serious injury for an older veteran. -
Bent,
My comments have been grossly distorted. I never said that Greene=Jones because they both fumbled 3 times as rookies. Instead, I pointed out that rookies tend to fumble and, then, tend to learn ball security. And, then, I merely pointed out that Greene did not fumble in his last 91 carries. So, my conclusion was that Greene had shown that he learned the importance of ball security and, IMO, fumbling was not a big issue.
Second, I never said that Greene=Emmit Smith. Instead, I responded to this comment:
“There are plenty of RBs in the history of the league who performed poorly (ie, three lost fumbles) in their rookie season who did NOT improve in their second or third seasons.
And there are comparatively few RBs who performed poorly (ie, three lost fumbles) in their rookie season, and then excelled in subsequent seasons.”
Sorry, but this is a completely and utterly false statement. As proof of this, I pointed out that Emmit Smith fumbled 7 times as a rookie and 8 times as a second-year player. But, as a second year player, he led the NFL in rushing and in his signature 1995 25 TD season he, again, had 7 fumbles. Walter Payton had 30 fumbles in his first 3 seasons and fewer than 5 only 1 time in his career. Barry Sanders fumbled 10 times in his rookie season, and generally improved thereafter (only 31 times over his next 9 years). Smith, Payton and Sanders are in the pantheon of greatest NFL backs, yet each excelled after having a boatload of rookie fumbles. Plus, their careers show that fumbles, while an issue, is not THE issue for running backs. Would any sane person have cut any of these guys for averaging more than 3 fumbles a season for their careers? So, I’m not comparing Greene to any of these guys, I’m just pointing out the fallacy of focusing on fumbles, especially for a guy who had 0 fumbles his last 91 carries of the season.
Third, I never predicted that Greene would stop fumbling, I just pointed out that, having not fumbled in his last pressure-packed 91 carries, it was truly unfair to say the opposite, that he has a fumbling problem.
So, sorry to beat this dead horse, but I won’t stand by while somebody just completely distorts what I’ve posted just to make ad hominem attacks.
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Hank,
When C-Mart was 31, he had the most carries of his career in a season (371) and the most yards (1697). His YPC was 4.6. It was an excellent NFL-leading season. What happened at 32? He had the FEWEST carries of his career (220) and the FEWEST yards (735) and only a 3.3 YPC, which was the LOWEST of his career.
Thomas Jones at 31 had the most carries in a season for his career (331), the most yards (1402) and a 4.2 YPC. My concern is what happens to TJ at 32? I don’t know the future, but RBs tend to fall off a cliff, not decline gradually. And, I know TJ’s supporters don’t like this, but in 5 of his last 6 games, he averaged less than 3 yards per carry. I just don’t expect a big rebound.
Also, I don’t think the Jets should differ from their plans just because there is no cap. The Jets would never have kept Jones in a capped year, he would’ve been cut. Sentimentality should not control player personnel decisions. Like I have said before, in the Giants glory days under Parcells, every year OJ Anderson would be a horse in the regular season and playoffs and every season Parcells would cut him for cap reasons then re-sign him for less money. That’s how you build championship teams. If the Jets cut TJ, let him shop himself and then let the Jets re-sign him cheaply. I’m fine with that, especially if the Jets add needed depth to the RB position. Relying on Jones to be an adequate backup RB at 32 years old is a recipe for disaster, like it was in the second half of the AFC Championship game.
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I like this idea, TJ and a conditional pick to the Chargers for Merriman and Cromartie:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/348760-jets-and-chargers-trade-partners
JRevis, I even worked Merriman into this thread!
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kicas17 says:
Keeep jones!
In perspective hes not getting paid that much… His bonus is the only big hit but he deserves it all. Hes been the best running back we had since curtis martin. Jones is a team leader and work horse. I was a big fan of him in Chicago and loved when he came here. Hes been great is past 2 seasons and I think he has one more left. Hes not “electrifying” but he can certainly get the job done. Why risk getting a bust in the draft when we have a performer on the roster.
This draft isnt even RB heavy. I dont think Cj Spillar will be a baller in the NFL and will probly go early and well Jahvid Best is dirty but hes gunna go to the chargers.
To get a legit runningback wel have to trade up which is not worth it!
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brightfuture says:
I still think the pros of keeping him out weigh the cons but if ur going to release him is it possible that they can maybe at least trade him for a 5, 6, or 7th round draft pick i no his value is low but ocnnel cost a 7th rounder i think we can get at least a low 6 th rounder for tj
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Bent-
Thanks for asking us both not to comment on—or endlessly dissect—other’s posts. I said I would do as you asked, and expected the other party to do the same.
But the other party I see is not capable of this.
Despite this fact, I’ve decided not to respond to the other party’s attacks.
You were right, Bent, the back and forth should have ended when you asked that it be ended.
Good night, brother.
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SackDance,
“Talent and Character: You can’t have one without the other.”
That’s the motto of this organization and the reason they won’t trade a locker room leader and a pick for an immature patriarch (Cromartie) and a post-roid diva (Merriman). -
He may not be back with the Jets but he certainly should have a shot elsewhere this year. And it doesn’t even need to be a dual back attack. TJ may be 32 but he has plenty of tread left on the tires. He hasn’t had as many carries as most backs his age, not to mention he’s a physical freak. The man is in amazing shape, really takes care of himself. It’s obvious now that he was not a bust, he was just stuck on the hapless Cardinals. As to why teams keep chasing him off after he produces for them? Mind boggling.
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DHarvey27 says:
I’ve said this before.. TJ is only successful in open space where the O line has opened big holes..if you watch carefully, once he hits a tackler, he basically stops running.. his legs do not churn.. A typical day for him is 40 yards on 16 carries and 80 yards on 2 where he has broken open. The converse to this is to watch Shonn Greene who powers through tackles and adds another 3, 4 6 yards after contact. So in truth, I would rather see a Shonn/Leon RB combo and let TJ go.
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Bent says:
Levi – yes, but it was the other knee.
Ben – I saw Sack’s last comment as mainly defending his own post, which is fair enough. The 91 carry fumble-free streak IS a good sign, but what happened to Curtis Martin is worrying, although he was playing hurt and I have no idea whether TJ’s struggles were down to any permanent physical issue.
I think we all accept that we don’t know what will happen. Greene looked great in the playoffs – will he overcome the fumbles and injuries? History tells us he might…or he might not. Is Jones still going to produce next year? History again tells us he might, or might not. Let’s hope the answer to both questions is yes (or if the Jets do lose Jones, that his replacement does well).
Again, you’ve both had a chance to fairly represent your side of the argument, so I hope this doesn’t have to escalate further.
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tjmax says:
Thank you Ben and Mike, for your positive and forceful comments in defense of a very good pro in TJ.The Jets need to pay the man, he has earned it.I like all of our running- backs,but Thomas Jones is still the man on this or any other team.
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Bent,
Well said.
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i think this is all gonna come down to how much they r going to pay washington, and how much r they willing to pay for a old number three RB
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Not a huge fan of leaning too hard on YPC as a stat.
In 2004, when C-Mart had his 1697 yards, both Lamont Jordan and JERALD SOWELL had clearly better YPC numbers.
There are too many intra-game contexts to peruse to make that stat a ‘be-all’ / ‘end-all’ number in an argument.
Just sayin’…
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makojets says:
I love what TJ did in 2009. However, SG will be the main guy in 2010 and TJ will be backing up SG. TJ is going to be a very expensive backup and I do not like spending that kind of money even if it is an uncapped year. History tells us good RBs can be found in later round of draft and undrafted as Denver has produced a lot of them. Having said that, I would keep TJ if he takes a pay cut.
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Also, someone brought up C-Mart falling off a cliff from age 31 to age 32. Good point. Yes, he did. Absolutely. This sets off an unmistakable Red Flag for how TJ would damage the Jets’ chances this year!!!
Umm, except…, upon reaching 32, Martin was in the same wobbly Green&White wagon with everyone else when Herm & Bradway sent the whole kit ‘n’ caboodle careening off the cliff. Which, of course, sent Woody off looking for a Genius — Man-, or otherwise.
A little context:
2004: 10-6 — two playoff games, ‘everyone loves Herm,’ NYJ FGs: 83% Oppt. FGs: 84%, Curtis (31): healthy, 1,697 reg. season yds., NFL rushing title (by a yd, I believe), team rushing high: 275 yds. v. Phins in Wk 8 (3 other 200+ team rushing games, 9 other 100+ yd. team rushing games), outscored oppts. by 72 points that year. [However, if I remember correctly, CM got hurt in the last couple of reg. season games, which made the on-going story line whether he could hold up to actually win the title or not, and his availability for the playoffs...which turned into the "What a Warrior!" story lines.]
2005: 4-12 — Bradway implodes, rotten team (the Doug Jolley, Brooks Bollinger, Cedric Houston era), ‘everyone hates Herm,’ Year of the Five QBs, NYJ FGs: 78% Oppt. FGs: 86%, Curtis (32): still hurt, 735 reg. season yds. on one leg basically, team rushing high: 184 yds. v. Raiders in Wk. 14 (only 3 other 100+ yd. team rushing games), outscored by oppts. by 115 points for the year. Herm fired; Bradway kicked down the hall.
Curtis was hurt; the line fell apart. Vinnie, Chad, Feidler, Kingsbury & Bollinger combined for 19 fumbles, 11 TDs and 15 INTs.
So, it’s clear beyond doubt that Curtis Martin’s turning 32 was solely responsible and sent the Jets off into the abyss.
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No one connected with the team (that I’m aware of) has called for TJ to once again be the featured back in a one-back system of Ground & Pound. Or even off-handedly intimated it. Nada. No one.
The fan ‘Party of NO’ here keeps arguing as if this were to be the case.
He was never meant to have that role last year. And nothing coming out of Florham Park leads me to believe they’re entertaining that notion for this year.
Last year, it was meant to be a two-headed TJ/Leon beast, spelled on occasion by the rook. As the season wore on, it was assumed coming out of camp, the mixture could always be adjusted — determined by how it was working and how the rook (and Sanchez) progressed. TJ stepped into the role of feature back only because Leon’s leg shattered and the rook wasn’t ready. So, he manned up and took on the responsibility. 1,402 says he did it fairly well, eh?
But even while quietly proving again that he was an elite NFL RB, 300+ carries for ANY RB is too many and he started to wear down under the burden. So, Rex found more spots for the rook to bounce back after his fumble yips to spell TJ more often, which allowed SG to gain some confidence. When TJ got nicked, Rex felt better about putting the rook in more often, and the kid did well.
Nothing I’ve seen, read or heard leads me to believe there is any plan afoot in FP other than instituting a 3-headed beast. Each has a strength [pound, breakaway, burst]; each has a potentially bad flaw: no one will have ANY idea how Leon’s leg comes back (or what kind of shape he’ll be in, physically or mentally) until he shows he can take a pounding again; TJ is an elite back who is now at an age where his carries need to be monitored to keep him fresh and dangerous; SG is potentially an amazing talent who now must prove that he can maintain and improve upon his rookie showing — scores of sophomores through all sports never come close to reaching their rookie success, so the jury will be out on SG until this next season ends, then we’ll know what we really have.
A mean, three-headed dog in that backfield in various Schotty-devised combinations — along with Sanchez further growing into the QB job — with maybe a slot burner to add to the mix.
I’m liking this a lot.
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Mako –
“I do not like spending that kind of money even if it is an uncapped year.”
No one’s asking you to. But, if Woody’s jake with it, we’re cool.
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Bent-
You ask us not to dissect each other’s posts. I comply. The other party does not.
Instead, he accuses me of making “false statements” and “gross distortions” and “ad hominem attacks.”
Is this what you call “defending his own post,” Bent? Is this what you call “fair”?
Well, if so, then I guess I have a right to defend my own post now.
_____________________________________
The other party says that my point—that “there are comparatively few RBs who performed poorly (ie, three lost fumbles) in their rookie season, and then excelled in subsequent seasons”—is disproved simply by the example he gives of THREE backs, Emmit Smith, Walter Payton and Barry Sanders.
But my point is that there are “comparatively FEW” backs that have done this, Smith, Payton and Sanders being among that very talented number.
In order to disprove my point, you would have to demonstrate, statistically, that the MAJORITY of backs who perform poorly (three lost fumbles) in their rookie season, then go on to excel.
Of course the MAJORITY of backs who perform poorly in their rookie season DON’T excel after their first year in the pros.
The MAJORITY of backs don’t have a career like Emmit Smith or Walter Payton or Barry Sanders.
It’s obvious.
Most rookies who perform poorly at ANY postion NEVER excel in subsequent years.
Otherwise, the HOF would have literally hundreds of inductees every year.
In other words, the fact that Smith, Payton and Sanders exelled after their rookie year is in NO WAY PROOF that any other back (ie, SG) will excel after his rookie year.
_____________________________________Just to be clear: I am making the point that while a HOF back—Smith, Sanders, Payton—might fumble at a comparatively high rate, and still have great value for a team, a rookie back with only 108 carries and 540 yards rushing is NOT a HOF back—not even close.
Therefore, that rookie back (SG) does not have the same value to a team that a HOF back would have.
Which means that for a rookie back to lose three fumbles in just 108 carries (3 lost fumbles every 36 carries) IS an issue, and one that is certainly cause for concern.
_____________________________________
As for the point, which you yourself cite, that 91 carries without a fumble is somehow proof that a RB (SG) is not going to fumble in subsequent years, or not going to fumble at a high rate—91 carries is NOTHING.
TJ has 1,200 carries with only TWO lost fumbles, or ONE lost fumble every 600 carries. So when Shonn carries the ball 600 times and doesn’t fumble, or fumbles only once, let me know.
Until then, my point stands: Greene is an unknown.
We don’t know—no one can possibly know—whether or not SG will lose three fumbles, or nine fumbles, or zero fumbles in 2010.
But we do know, based upon what he has done over the past FOUR YEARS, that it is highly unlikely that in 2010, TJ will fumble at anywhere near the rate that Shonn has fumbled—one lost fumble every 36 carries—in his very short career.
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miketaliaferro-
Great posts. Thanks.
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BigBear says:
I think we should keep TJ for 2010 for the following reasons:
1. If you forget money for a second, you would like to add a third RB to a SG LW backfield. 2010 uncapped year let’s us be a little more casual with money though not crazy
2. There are some questions with both SG and LW which would make me a little nervous going into 2010 w/o TJ. I really like them both, but each have something to prove. This insurance would be great for all involved – esp as many point out TJ is 32
3. I think TJ’s leadership is important on a young team and I further believe that continuity in an offensive system is important (see Indy,NE,etc)
4. I want there to be no questions about our ability to run the ball so that there is not a ton of pressure on Sanchez and the passing game. Let other teams prepare like this year to stop the run and that can only provide upside for the development of Sanchez and the passing game. This plus our D gives us an ability to keep the “training wheels” on the O if needed, but an option to drop them if we don’t..
5. I think that TJ has deserved the right to play out the final year of his contract. He was worried last year about this, but went back to work and performed very well. I would like the front office to “do the right thing” after a couple of questionable moves that may have had some locker room impact – Kendall,Baker,Chad.
6. This is just for a year – not forever. TJ is in great shape, had some years with limited playing time, and has leadership, exp in our system, and a Rex attitude to help mentor Greene. With a split with SG and LW, TJ will be fresh(er) for 2010. Beyond is tougher, and then the risks get higher, but we will know a lot more about how good SG is and also know about our future with LW. Expensive insurance – perhaps, but worth it in my opinion given state of offense, team dynamics/maturity, etc. This isn’t fantasy football where only stats matter.
7. If as Bent suggests/hopes we could negotiate an extension which lowers costs this year it could give us even more flexibility nexy year. This would be gravy in my opinion. -
Bent says:
Ben – Yes, it’s fair that you can defend your own post, and now you have.
It’s all speculation, so neither of you can “win” this argument. I think we’ve covered all the bases now, so no point going back over old ground.
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Bent-
I agree that we’ve covered all the bases, and neither side is going to be convinced of the other’s arguments.
But isn’t it, as you put it, “all speculation,” Bent.
We do know, for instance, how TJ has performed over the past five years (at least 1,000 yards per year), and how often he has lost fumbles (two lost fumbles in 1,200 carries), and how often he has taken a pounding, played through an injury, and stayed on the field (every season in the past five years).
All of which makes is highly likely that he will perform at a similar level next year.
What is speculation, though, is how Shonn will perform next year. And that’s because we don’t yet have enough information to go on.
Here’s an interesting stat from 2009:
_____________
THOMAS JONES:
—SIXTEEN GAMES with 10 or more carries.
—ELEVEN GAMES with 20 or more carries.
________
SHONN GREENE:
—FIVE GAMES with 10 or more carries.
—ZERO GAMES with 20 or more carries.
_________
Which means that Shonn spent significant time on the field in only FIVE games the entire 2009 season.
My point, Bent, has been that this Shonn’s minimal experience in 2009 (as well as his several injuries, as well as his several fumbles) makes any prediction about how Greene will perform in 2010 pure speculation.
You can’t say the same thing about a back (TJ) who has been CONSISTENT (consistently reliable) for FIVE out of the past FIVE YEARS.
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That should have been:
But it isn’t, as you put it, “all speculation,” Bent.
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Harvlis says:
TJ deserves the opportunity to compete for the the starting job and the SB. Many of you are so enthralled with Shonn G that you forget who carried us to the playoffs.
Here are a few reasons why you should all calm down about Greene:
1. There was no tape on Greene for the opposition to analyze, at the end of last season. That offers a distinct advantage. The other teams don’t know his tendencies, ability, body language, etc…
2. TJ injured his knee at the end of the season. As the O-Line took their game to the next level, in the post season — Who’s to say that TJ wouldn’t have done as well or better than SG, if he was healthy. Let SG beat him out in training camp, before you just hand him the offense that was built by TJ’s sweat and blood.
3. Greene was injured three times, last season. If he comes out, who replaces him full time. Sorry but, he has to prove his ability to stay on the field, before I disgard my workhorse back.
4. Turnovers lose games. How do you know how many games Greene will give away, if he were to be taking the majority of the carries. Or, if he were trying to play through an injury. Once agin, he has to prove himself before I get rid of the stingiest RB in the NFL.
The question seems to be — should the Jets give TJ the bonus. It’s okay for the Jets to over-charge the Jet fans for PSL’s, Tickets, Parking, Food & Drink, and Jet Merchandise but, they would let one of our best players go, over a few million dollars. This smells like the Kendall move. You all know what happened to the O-line, and our team, after they cheaped out on that one. Our Offense starts and ends with our running game. TJ has been our running game. If they let TJ go, they change our whole Offense. For a few Mil, I don’t think it’s worth the risk.
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Bent-
Have to run out now to go to work.
So I won’t be posting anything else on this subject for a while.
Anyway, it’s always a pleasure to exchange with you, Bent.
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Harvlis – Amen.
While I think SG has done a great job with the chances he has been given, I would rather be safe than sorry for a sake of a few million dollars. If they cut TJ, they’d have to sign someone to take his place.
Worse case we have too many great running backs for one year. Also, SG is cheap, LW will be tendered RFA and if TJ costs $5mm, so be it…combined RB payroll not crazy in context of its importance to our gameplan.
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gangreen4ever says:
when youre a top 5 rusher in the game, you get an approval. bring him back!
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To BenNevis,Harvlis,Miketaliaferro,Ganggren4ever,Thank you for your support of the man who carried this team.We were #1 in rushing,what more needs to be said! We like our rushing attack,let TJ retire as a NY JET.Pay the bonus .
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One last thing to be aware of in this TJ discussion, especially for those who worry so about spending Woody’s Q-Tip money…
Because of the way the Jets and TJ structured TJ’s 4-yr./$20 mil. contract three years ago, this recently past third year of it produced great cost savings to the Jets on its 2009 budget. They paid him only $1 mil. in total bonus/salary package in ’09. Yes, the contract was heavily front-loaded into the 2007 and 2008 budgets, but the team never once complained of being overly burdened by this that I know of. Perhaps because they gained returns on their 2007 and 2008 investments of a 1,000+ yd. rusher on an horrendous team with one of the worst O lines in franchise history, and an AFC rushing title winner, respectively. Not to mention, a locker room force in both years, as well.
Happily, the Jets got exactly what they paid for in each of those first two contract years.
In 2009, the planned-for trough year in the contract’s structure, TJ ranked behind 56 other NFL RBs for total 2009 compensation by year’s end.
Yep, you read that correctly. TJ was the FIFTY-SEVENTH (57) highest-paid RUNNING BACK in the NFL in 2009. I’ll let you do your own counting to see how far he falls when you add in all the payments for the other positions in the league.
While this group includes top RBs like MDJ, Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, it also included the Brandon Jacobs of the world, along with the likes of Terrelle Smith, Lousaka Polite and the immortal Mewelde Moore among scores of others.
Now, this was the contractual plan all along, so there’s no weeping for TJ here. But did you hear a peep out of Jones once he reported to camp this summer after holding out at first? Or when Leon went down? Or when SG was running for glory and headlines? Or, more importantly, when it became clear that a slew of no-name guys who couldn’t hold his cup for him while he was in the shower were making considerably more than he was this year.
No? Neither did I. In a league of spoiled boys, this is a man.
[ Now, BTW, how many of these 56 other running backs did TJ out-gain, hm-m? What? 54 of them?? What say you? TJ had more rushing yards than FIFTY-FOUR (54) of the FIFTY-SIX (56) NFL backs who made more than TJ did in '09? My! What a decrepit mess he is...to allow TWO whole RBs to rush for more yards than he gained. He's obviously lost it all, or he'd never have allowed Steven Jackson to pass him by those whopping 14 yards. He's obviously toast. ]
Now, in 2010 this number clearly goes back up some, but still only puts him into the mix with other well-paid RBs in the league for 2010 — it doesn’t put him near or at the top, despite being a Top-3 RB. This higher number seems eminently fair following the amazing bargain Tanny and TJ’s agent arranged for the Jets for this 3rd year of TJ’s contract. Considering the stunning return he’s provided on his contractual commitment and the unsure, unsteady RB picture for the Jets’ 2010 Ground & Pound offense, the March payout should be a no-brainer. With an adequate, pre-budgeted salary already in place.
As Bent stated earlier, certainly, if Tanny can get TJ to revisit the contract to bring the 2010 numbers down, he’ll certainly attempt to do that. This being a business, after all, I assume he’ll do that. But since TJ has already provided full value for every dollar earned in three years, along with Tanny’s effort to tarnish him last summer, we can only assume that it’s going to cost Tanny something tangible to accomplish this. We can assume there’ll be no change in the contract without a clear ‘Quid’ for the ‘pro Quo.’
And do not be mis-led:
Few teams may want to trade tangible draft/roster value for a 32-yr.-old RB, no matter how good he is.
But if the Jets foolishly cut him, sit back and get out of the way! Just watch the enormous, blood-filled scrum that develops for his services, moments after the Jets’ press announcement.
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Bent says:
Minor nitpick that doesn’t affect the tone or content of your post:
Lou Polite is IMO one of, if not THE best blocking back in the NFL, so using him as an example troubled me!
To address the post itself, history means nothing. If Jones is washed up (and note that I don’t believe he is) then it will prove to be a mistake to give him that money, whether he deserves it or not. If he wants the money due to him in year 4, then he shouldn’t have signed a backloaded deal. Of course, if they did release him and Greene couldn’t handle the load for a whole year, that’s an even bigger mistake. Nobody can be sure what will happen (hence the heated discussions), but I’m optimistic on both fronts.
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I think it’s ironic that many of the folks that support Jones now are the same people that say that the Jets OL is “old” and needs depth or says the same thing about the DL. But, it’s been shown in all of NFL history that very few RBs at 32 or older can be productive, while on the OL and DL many players can remain productive well into their 30s.
If anyone looks at the top of the comments, I said:
#
SackDance99, on February 19th, 2010 at 1:01 pm Said:I think you have to approve of his 2009 season, but endorse him as Greene’s back up in 2010? No way, it’s time to get younger and have Sanchez be the leader of the offense.
If Woody wants to spend his money (IMO, unwisely) to keep TJ, sure. But, I think it’s just the prudent thing to do to get another “between the tackles” RB in camp (an RB/FB combo would be even better given T-Rich’s age). I don’t think it’s debatable that the running game is crucial to the Jets success. And, I also think it’s not debatable that TJ was sub-standard late in the season, especially in 5 of his last 6 games where he had an under 3 YPC. Basing the Jets future on the hope that TJ can rebound at 32 as he did at 31 or 30 is just elevating hope over experience. RBs decline with age…that’s a fact. Even HOF RBs who were far greater than TJ began to fail in their early 30s. So, I like the loyalty to TJ, but I want an AFC East Championship, a first round bye, an AFC Championship and a Super Bowl victory. IMO, relying on TJ as Greene’s back up or as one of the “3-headed” monster is wrong-headed. It would be
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It would be better to have the 3-headed monster be like the Ravens, with an FB, power RB and scat back. TJ just doesn’t fit what I think would make the team stronger. I’d love him as the RB and Conditioning coach. As a cornerstone of the running game? I’m just not comfortable with that.
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Bassett-
You asked: “Basically, do you want [Thomas Jones] to stay on in 2010?”
Looks like about 85% of fans on this site want TJ back next year. Smart fans.
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Mike,
He was 57th this year, because he was the 7th highest paid RB in the league in 2008 and the 10th highest in 2007. His deal was structured so his 3rd year was his lowest compensated season. Also, he was 31st in the league in RB salary, not 57th (usa today website). And this year (although the official #’s aren’t available yet) he’ll be compensated like a top 10 RB (going by 2009′s top RB figures). Let’s hold back our tears for Mr. Jones, who is compensated quite fairly for his services. One subpar year (yes, 2007 was a 1,000 yard season, but at a 3.6YPC clip) where he was overcompensated, and one good year where he wasn’t compensated enough, that seems like it evens out to me.
The top-3 RB statement could be debated, but that’s not my point. But to say that Jones should be paid more than guys like MJD, Peterson, S. Jackson, etc. is absurd. He is adequately compensated for his work, having made over $12 million in the past 3 years.
And this notion that Tanny “tarnish[ed]” Jones this summer, or attempted to. Um, what? Just because Tanny doesn’t dole out extensions whenever a veteran feels he deserves it he’s tarnishing their image now? Jones was locked into a very affordable contract, the season immediately after he had two well-paid seasons in a row, so the Jets should throw away the cheap year and give him a new deal? Because Tanny said no, he’s tarnishing Jones?
I like Jones, would welcome him back, but if he won’t restructure (essentially asking to be cut) than I wouldn’t care if they cut him. There will be cheap veterans we can find (like Jamal Lewis, who just got released) who could do similar work to TJ, in the event Greene can’t do it. Jones has been a good soldier, but as everyone says, this is a business, and paying a backup RB more than $5 mil is bad for business.
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Ben Nevis/miketalialiferro:
I Completely agree. I’ve been arguing the same points in support of Jones since his mini hold in pre-season. Take a look at ONE of my “old”comments in respose to a TJB regular fan:
hank/naplesh, on May 16th, 2009 at 12:24 pm Said:
Get your facts straight: $14 MM (13.1 +900,000) divided by 3 years (‘07, ‘08, ‘09) will give him slightly more than $4 MM per year.
Take a look at all RB’s salaries last year and tell me where Jones falls considering those that ran for over 1000 yds/yr the last four years? (only 3 players in the NFL)
And you can take it to the bank that he will rush for 1000 + this year which would make it 5years in a row.Now tell me he hasn’t overperformed his contract considering he will be earning $900,000 this year and knows Tannanbaum will cut him so not to pay the back end of the contract, regardless of TJ’s value to the team?
And if you’re basing your argument strickly on age (shortsighted) remeber that Martin was 31 + when he he won the NFL rushing title.
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Martin won the rushing title, then retired following the next season…
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Bren da:
Yes, we all know about THE “bone on bone” knee condition that FORCED him to retire at the same age as TJ.
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Brendan:
Evcuse your name mist print, must blame the computer.
thanks
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Hank,
You know me well enough to know I’m not going to get mad at a typo, don’t worry bud. And I know about the bone-on-bone injury. I’m jsut pointing out that these guys lose the ability to recover from injuries and play through pain as they age. Jones is getting to that point and his knee injury concerns me a bit.
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A great poll would be “Who should be the feature back next season, Jones or Greene?”
I suspect that Greene would win by a landslide. Then, the next question is “Who should be Greene’s primary back up, Leon or Jones?” Or, “Who should get more carries next season, Leon or Jones?” Again, Leon would win either poll, but by a closer vote.
So, then the question is: “Should the Jets pay TJ’s contract to have him be the no. 3 RB?” TJ would win that vote, probably by a landslide. That’s the point that I disagree with because I think the Jets should groom a younger, cheaper back up that could also play FB and replace T-Rich in 2011. I’d cut the cord on TJ and I hope the Jets’ management realizes that sentimentality for an aging, expensive no. 3 RB is just not good planning for the future. And, apparently, Jets management is struggling with this issue, as they should.
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^ Like a La’Ron McClain. FB/RB, can step in and pound it for a few games, tough as hell.
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Bent,
Thanks for the catch w/Polite. Wasn’t as well aware of him, personally. One of the many names on the list. My bad.Your second point is sound, of course.
IF, in fact, TJ is toast physically (meaning he’s HURT, is injured), delete this entire long thread because it’d be moot, and he’ll be gone as the naysayers say he should be.
We’ll see that with the next payout in March. I believe they pay him if he’s healthy; they cut him if the leg, or whatever the late-season nick was, doesn’t respond.
If he’s healthy, and Rex likes him, it’s also entirely moot — he’s playing.
Basically, we’re all whistling in the dark here because we do not have access to Dr.’s reports; F.O. meetings; Rex’s staff discussions, wishes and observations, or what Woody had for breakfast — so we’re all discussing this from a very limited vantage point.
In essence, just a good pub argument. And I commend you, Bent, on keeping the tempers cooled.
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Bent, I’m not so sure TJ’s contract was back-loaded, as you wrote. It strikes me as being a very creative (and pretty savvy as to NFL ways) contract for someone coming to a new team.
TJ’d already been on three different teams early on, and was no trusting, happy camper. He’s admitted as much. The Jets OK’d re-doing his deal to get him here from a SB team, and he basically said: OK, Show Me. No tears need be shed for the Jets in this. They got what they wanted and needed, and paid what they thought was fair. They’ve known exactly what they’ve been doing at every step.
This contract’s structure seems designed to protect TJ rather than to give the team a sweet deal, but agreed to happily by the Jets, since there are positives for the team in it as well. Very sound work for a player and his agent, I’d say, rather than the shoddy work by Leon’s agent.
Out of the 4/$20m promised TJ, it was heavily front-loaded, I believe, for roughly $12m of that $20 in the first two years; the trough for $900,000 (actually, $1m paid w/bonuses) in 2009, then roughly $7m in Year 4. This strikes me as very savvy.
Player positives:
For the player — who knows full well that back years on standard NFL contracts are rarely attained before being cut — this wisely puts the bulk of the money up-front when the team still is high on you. The burden is then clearly on the player to produce. If you produce as expected, you’re seen as a value and worth the money. If you fail, you’re cut — but you’ve still gotten the bulk of your deal as a parting gift.You then build in a team discount in Yr. 3, so that for a year, IF you are still offering value, you’re offering extreme value for the monies paid you in that budget year, allowing the team greater flexibility that year. You’ve also placed pressure upon the F.O. to pick up the remainder of the contract — which it can be argued, very few teams would be likely to do without some type of competitive or loud fan-base or PR pressure. Again, IF you’re NOT holding up your end fully, there’s no way you’ll ever see that 4th year, or the third even. But, IF you are a high producer in that 3rd year, you’re now seen as a elite player at a bargain (say, 57th among RBs, while 3rd in rushing…), and improve your chances of joining that rare breed of NFL players who see a final contractual year.
TJ has fulfilled, and even surpassed, all of these requirements. It appears (depending on the status of his late-season injury) that he could be writing a primer for other players on how to handle the business side of football as a player. Of course, he’s a physical and mental freak of nature, so it would be difficult for many players to reach the bar he’s set, but as least they can see now how it’s done.
NFL team positives:
This 4-yr approach is team-friendly also. They pay a premium for an elite player, assuming extended value for two years before depreciation as the player’s body wears down after that. As long as the premium matches what other teams are paying their elite players, there’s no out-sized hit to the team. They’re still within fiscal guidelines. Plus, they’re aware of the low probability of paying out on the second two years, especially on the last one.Having a 3rd Year valley is an attractive concept for the team as well. They’ve paid their premium for an elite player for two years and the rest, as they say, is gravy, assuming standard diminished player performance from then on. Even if the player is still serviceable, you’re paying a mid-ranking amount to him, which allows you to keep him on the roster and continue a face-of-the-team for the fan base and PR efforts, and be able to have him mentor his replacement at a reasonable cost. The team also gains from having discounted additional funds available that year to steer from a former elite player to other contractual needs around the roster. If, in fact, the player still performs at an elite level, then fiscally this becomes a windfall value to the team. The PR side, however, becomes thornier.
The full assumption is that the final year on the contract will never be honored (plan B). However, smart accounting demands that all future projections include this amount on all statements thru the life of the contract (plan A), but the working premise is you’ll have that money back in-hand that last year. If for some unforeseen reason, the player is still performing at an elite level, the payout has already been accounted for in the budget, so the team can easily stay with plan A.
What becomes tricky with continued elite play is the strong allure of the thought by the F.O., sports pundits and fantasy league fans of having those funds back in-hand that last year as a fait accompli. Very powerful, indeed. If you do have to pay out those remaining funds, it now forces you to become much more creative in allocating the remaining monies you have available rather than relying on lazy assumptions.
A Hobson’s Choice: Do you pay an elite player who still leads your team on the field and in the locker room and in your PR campaign off of it, or do you save money to spread around to fill less visible holes, and replace your elite player with a lesser player — perhaps then taking a PR hit and angering your fan base if your former elite player performs well elsewhere?
What was not planned for in this, I believe, is the continued high level of play, commitment, physical preparation and locker room leadership exhibited by Thomas Jones. I understand the concerns of the naysayers. But Jones simply is not your typical football player; he strikes me more along the lines of a Ricky Henderson in baseball, who always was a physical specimen that 99% of the MLB brotherhood could never dream of emulating, physically. He was a freak. He performed at a top ML level for ten years after all reason and sensibility dictated he stop.
Jones is that type of player, IMHO. Hurt, yes, I can see him being felled by being hurt. An injury can stop his career as it can for anyone. But “wearing down”? Nope, I just don’t see it. He’s just different, is all. Barring injury, TJ has any number of productive seasons left. I only pray that they’re for us, rather than used against us.
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miketaliaferro-
Great post once again (your most recent).
It’s great to read comments (such as yours) that are filled with actual information and facts and analysis (rather than just conjecture and posturing and huffing and puffing).
Thanks once again.
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What about me! I use facts!
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Don’t see any good reason in letting TJ go in this uncapped season. Any set of fresh legs they bring in will be as much if not more of a question mark than TJ. While he would have a greater upside this is something we can look at next year when questions about Leon and Shonn are answered. They should look for a FB for T-Rich to groom and those can be the fresh legs in the event that any of our “question-mark” RBs fall apart in 2010. Would rather spend time, effort, attention, etc on filling other definite needs as opposed to RB, which is a possible, though unlikely need this year although a very certain need next year. Our 3 headed monster should easily punish opposing defenses for all 4 qtrs and overtime and could even sustain minor injuries throughout the season, as any two of these guys at one time is a great combo. If the FO sees something different as workouts and training camp commence then they can deal with it then. They know and see a hell of a lot more then we do so have a lot more info on things like TJs injury, Leon’s progress, Shonn’s work ethic while conditioning in the offseason, so I trust their judgement. Damn! Feels good to say that – can’t remember when I felt that way before.
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For those who equate C-Mart’s 31/32 with TJ’s 31/32, I would point you to how their careers got them to those ages.
I believe that many of us will agree that 200+ carries is a solid RB year, and that the 300+ carry level is the point of excessive physical pounding on an NFL running back. Many can do it, some extremely well, but you’re not going to do it for long without the “wearing down” people refer to.
C-Mart:
11 years: Had only THREE years with FEWER THAN 300 carries. (Yr. 3: 274, Yr. 8: 261, and that last, sad Yr. 11 on one leg: he still got 220 carries), the other six, he carried between 316 times and 371 times (his rushing title season in Yr. 10) a year.Thomas Jones:
10 years: Has only THREE years with MORE THAN 300 carries. (Yr. 6, Yr. 8, and Yr. 10). He just missed the 300 mark in Yrs. 7: 296 and Yr. 9: 290. TJ carried 200+ times in one other year. Otherwise, for the other four, he carried 112 (2x), 137, and 138 — a very manageable work load there.Again, short of injury which would change everything, TJ simply has not had the extended pounding that C-Mart endured.
Perhaps had TJ been around Rex Ryan (or Bill Parcells, for that matter) in the early part of his career, he’d be a burnt out hulk of himself. But early on, he was on bad, pass-happy teams and ducked the pounding his ground-game RB brethren were hit with.
Simply put, C-Mart’s 32 does not necessarily equal TJ’s 32.
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Brendan,
I think that I’m the one that’s in the crosshairs of that comment despite the fact I probably use more facts than any regular commenter on TJB!
Not to critique mike t, but baseball is a far different sport with numerous examples of great players being productive in their 40s. Heck, a guy like Jamie Moyer might have been better after 40 than he was in his 20s or 30s! But, the NFL is cruel to over-30 RBs and very few even have careers that last beyond 30 and fewer still have career’s that stretch to 32 and beyond, while being as productive as they were before turning 30. Like I said, the only RB that I identified that had an over 4 YPC beyond 32 was Walter Payton. But, here’s the list of RBs, maybe someone can tell me who is the model for TJ’s career:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_yds_career.htm
And, a good back up RB is one that does at least as well as the starter (sometimes they do even better, like Turner for LT or Ward for Jacobs). Can TJ still at 32 have a YPC that is equal or better than what Greene can do? That’s an open question. But, if I’m right and he cannot, then the Jets could potentially waste their greatest offensive asset, the best run-blocking OL in the NFL, one that has linemen (and WRs) block so well downfield that a Jet RB can at any time reel off a long gain. The window of opportunity to maximize the potential of the OL is also closing with Faneca and Woody over 30. The Jets have to start getting younger somewhere, IMO, back up RB is a good place to start, especially if the backup can be groomed to take over for T-Rich, who will turn 39 this year.
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mike t,
Maybe TJ’s 32 equals Shaun Alexander’s 29, when after 5 years of over 1500 carries, he declined dramatically. Or, maybe his 32 equal LT’s 29, when after 7 years of 300 carry seasons, his numbers declined dramatically. The point is that there is a tipping point for all RBs, where the carries and hits finally cause a decline. TJ lightly running early may have elongated his career, but how long? And, in 5 of his last 6 games, his YPC was under 3, including each playoff game. That surprised me because if the Bears had beaten Indy, it was likely Jones who should’ve gotten the MVP, he was great in the playoffs with the Bears. You have to agree that sooner or later TJ will decline, I think sooner, you think later. But, why take the risk?
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Brendan, just a couple of quick points…
1) Yes, TJ was paid a premium as an elite back in ’07/’08. That was how the Jets set up his deal. I don’t get your point, exactly. The Yr. 3 valley was also by plan. What was not accounted for by the team, IMHO, was TJ still playing at an elite level after three years. [As an aside to some, TJ had his 3rd highest YPC number this year.]
2) In using dollar comparisons, I caution against using ‘Salary’ when discussing NFL player compensation. Since the dawn of Free Agency, it’s become a meaningless word.
You want to look at “Total Compensation” for both a given year, and for an guy’s contract numbers. The other word you want to look for when a contract is announced is how much is ‘Guaranteed’. That’s really the only money the player is looking at walking away with by signing that contract. The rest is Monopoly Money.
The NFL and the NFLPA have long since allowed the introduction of “Voodoo Economics” into the reportage of player compensation.
They’ve destroyed the definition of the word “Bonus.” As the NFL uses it, it now merely means a timed payout on the earlier contract that the team can simply refuse to pay, making the player a free agent (i.e., cut). It’s an Out Clause, nothing more.
They may announce a sexy 3 year/$24 million contract for someone. But at close scrutiny, it’s so sliced and diced in its language that it’s not worth the paper in the press release. In all likelihood, it’ll really be about a 1 year/$3-6 mil. or 2 year/$4-8 mil. deal after the guy’s cut. [In baseball, the player is going to get his whole $24 million. Somehow, but he'll get it, unless it's voided which is rare. Every MLB team carries long-gone players on its payroll books.]
TJ’s salary for 2009 was $900,000 but he was actually paid $1 million in that contract’s third ‘valley’ year, since the Jets paid whatever other monies were in that contract for this year.
In terms of the now-bogus 2009 ‘Salary’, yes, TJ’s in the thirties somewhere in RB ranking. But for Total Compensation, he’s 57th due to some whopping ‘Bonus’ payments made to other RBs. And no, I am not shedding Tear One for TJ. Just stating the facts of things. Also, yes, you are correct in stating that in the first two years, he was in the top group of RBs in compensation, and will be again in 2010 assuming the Jets will pay the March Pay-Out and then his salary.
One must add all the bonuses, salaries, etc. into the equation — because it’s certain every NFL team does. Player XXX may be getting a salary this year of $385,000, but that little $5,006,760.00 bonus is what the team is looking at. THAT’S his compensation for this year, as far as they’re concerned. So, that’s what his perceived value to the team will be pegged on.
If the team feels he’s worth it (and/or if they still have guaranteed money owed the player anyway) then he gets his $5+ mil. ‘Bonus’. If not, poof. Gone. No bonus, no job.
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“a good back up RB is one that does at least as well as the starter ”
Wow, that is some statement right there! At least as well??
I would call that a great backup RB and one that you will not find on many teams. Does it happen? Sure, but it’s not commonplace as it sounds in that post.
I don’t see why people are focusing on having a #1, #2 and #3 RB. A good 3 headed monster mixes and matches based on the team they face and how things are going that day. One may wear down the opposing team’s D, paving the way for another (sound familiar) to explode. I am all for Greene getting the bulk of the carries and Leon and TJ sharing the rest depending on the day, but I prefer that Greene’s bulk is not 300+.
I see a backup in place of TJ to be just as much and probably more of a risk than TJ. Now if the FO knows something about TJs injury that we don’t, fine. If someone amazing is available thru waivers because a sad sack team would rather save money than field the best team possible, fine. But IMO, chances are good that TJ will be a better one year option as part of a 3 headed machine than a younger unproven backup. Best to get younger on the OL, find a backup for T-Rich and go after a RB next year when we know more about both Shonn and Leon. I don’t see a problem carrying 5 RBs this year, seeing as the run game is so critical for us (and assuming that we’re not carrying 4 QBs and/or 2 PKs!). -
Brendan –
No, TJ’s being a Top 3 RB cannot be debated because he ranked 3rd in the NFL in Rushing in 2009. It’s in the record books. It’s now official. As Yogi said, ‘You could look it up.’
He also won the AFC Rushing Title in 2008. So, 2009 clearly is not a fluke. Saying he’s a ‘Top 3,’ or a ‘Top 5′ or a ‘Top 10′ is, up until the 2010 season starts and new numbers accrue, accurate.
What happens from now is merely the future.
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Mike,
1) My point is, you aren’t going to give someone a brand new deal in their “valley year”, as we’ll call it, immediately after you paid them as a premium player at their position the two prior years. So when TJ wanted that new deal and Tanny “tarnished” him (which I don’t agree with at all), it wasn’t justified. TJ wasn’t complaining during years 1 & 2 when he was correctly compensated, or even compensated too much.
I am well aware that there is a difference between salary and total compensation, which is why saying Jones isn’t going to be a top-paid RB next season is completely false. I was referring to his Cap Value when I said 31st this season. And regardless, my point still stands, he was paid as a top 10 back the previous two years (where only 1 of those years it was warranted) so it balances out.
2) I’m sorry you went through all that typing, but I knew this. And it still doesn’t change the fact he’ll be a top 10 compensated RB again in 2010. So for a 4 year deal he was top 10 in his positional salary for 3 of them. There’s no conceivable way you can say he is underpaid.
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Mike,
Well, since you’re so sure of yourself, can you look up the total yards from scrimmage leaders from this past year? Because a lotttt of RB’s got more total yards than TJ because a lottttt of RB’s have receiving yards.
As I said, it’s up for debate. Not his rushing totals, those are, as you so put it “now official”. But as any fan knows, yourself included I’m sure, stats only tell part of the story. If I had to pick a RB, even for a single game, would TJ be in my top 3? Not even close. Top 5? Nope. Top 10? Probably not. That’s what I mean when I say it’s debatable.
And that rushing title for the AFC (not the NFL since he was nowhere close to that) would not have led the league in rushing any other year this past decade.
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Sorry, Brendan, one more thing –
If my memory serves correctly, TJ was not looking to trash a cheap year to get a new contract last summer as you implied.
He was doing what EVERY pro athlete does — parlay an out-of-the-box achievement (AFC Rushing Title) for a better contract. If this bothers, than all of sports must be re-tooled.
He was clearly not looking for a ‘new’ contract or an ‘extension.’ He was actually angling to get the Jets to guarantee the remaining $8 million they were already ‘contracted’ to pay him in early ’07. That would have been the ‘new’ part of the contract. The re-worked part. Sure, he asked for a couple of extra bucks as a negotiating stance, but it became clear early on that what he was after was the guarantee for the remaining bits of THAT contract. But as we all know, no NFL team will pay off on the end of anything other than rookie contracts unless they have to. Hence, the rub.
When the Jets wouldn’t budge, TJ reported to camp. No harm in asking. You can ask your boss for a raise, tho’ you probably not get it in this economy. But there’s no harm in asking. There is no one who follows sports who should be surprised that he looked to take care of himself after a banner year. He then proceeded to have a third elite year.
Also, anyone who claims that TJ was ‘overcompensated’ in 2007 obviously was out of the country and did not get to watch that season. A total of 1,000 yds. on THAT team should have won him a Nobel Prize.
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Mike,
I never said that he was out of line for asking. But you said that Tanny was “tarnishing” TJ in the way they went about denying Jones’ request. And to be honest, I didn’t think they should guarantee the final year then, and I don’t believe it now. He signed the deal, with agent Drew Rosenhaus, KNOWING what was going to happen. He wanted that $13 mil right away, so it’s not Tanny’s problem to work around the cap to give TJ more in 2009 than was earned, and he reserves the right to save almost $6 million this year by cutting Jones.
“anyone who claims that TJ was ‘overcompensated’ in 2007 obviously was out of the country and did not get to watch that season”
And anyone who claims that TJ is a top 3 RB because he gains 1300 yards behind a top 3 offensive line in football obviously doesn’t understand the “team” concept and that Jones needs a great O-line to be good.
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Sack —
Actually, both Jerome Bettis and Franco Harris jump out at me as TJ-types.
Roughly about the same bruising style with giddy-up when needed, and same ball park for Att. and YPC avgs.
Major differences, of course, but of that mold…
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Brendan,
I do believe that you and I can simply agree to disagree — both on what actually transpired in 2007 and for 2010.
No prob’.
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Works for me.
And I saw what transpired in 2007. I’m not saying he didn’t earn every one of those yards, either, so I hope it doesn’t seem like I think if you put someone else back there that they instantly would have gotten 1700 yards or something.
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Brendan;
I can’t believe this argument, so let me ask you one question because it appears that there is never going to be enough information or statistics to sway you or SD99:
If you had to bet the ranch on one RB (TJ or SG) to CARRY the team for THE YEAR, which one would you put your $$$ on?
Please answer as DIRECTLY as posible.
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NYC PE,
Well, you critique my statement without citing any examples that refute it. Let’s see: 1. Dolphins (not much tail off from Brown to Williams), 2. Panthers (not much tail off from Williams to Stewart), 3. Chargers (Sproles had a higher YPC than LT), 4. Broncos (Buchalter had a higher YPC than Moreno), 5. Colts (not much tail off from Addai to Brown), 6. Ravens (Rice and McGahee bother over 5.0 YPC), 7. Saints (tough to tell whose the back up, Bell had the most carries and lowest YPC, while Bush and Thomas (most yards) were both over 5), 8. Texans (all of Slaton’s back ups had a higher YPC), 9. Jets (Greene better YPC than TJ), 10. Pats (all back ups had a higher YPC than Maroney), 11. Cards (Wells, the back up, supplanted the starter Hightower), 12. Bills (Jackson, the back up, supplanted the starter, Lynch), 13. Seahawks (Forsett far outperformed TJ’s brother), 14. Browns (Lewis supplanted as the starter by Harrison), 15. Cowboys (Choice and Jones have a higher YPC than Barber), 16. Giants (Bradshaw and Ware have a higher YPC than Jacobs), 17. Eagles (Westbrook, McCoy and Weaver all over 4 YPC), 18. Rams (Darby in far fewer carries had a higher YPC than Jackson), 19. Bears (all back ups had a higher YPC than Forte), 20. Bengals (both back ups to Benson had a higher YPC), 21. Jags (Jennings higher YPC than MJD), 22. Lions (Backups have higher YPC than Smith).
As for the rest, it’s no surprise that Chris Johnson’s, Adrian Peterson’s, Michael Turner’s, and Frank Gore’s back ups have a far lower YPC. As for the rest, the back ups had inferior numbers, which in some cases (Cadillac much better than Ward and nobody that (my definition within .3 yards) close to Ryan Grant, Mendenhall, Bush or Portis) were surprising.
You see, it’s the exception when a back up doesn’t have at least as good (or darn close) YPC to the starter. There are many quite obvious reasons for this, the defense is used to the starter and is either not preapred or lets up for the back up, the starter gets the “tough” yards, etc. But, it is a FACT that a good back up usually has a YPC that is close (or many times) better than the starter.
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Hank,
That’s not a realistic question. No matter who the starter is, they’re not carrying the team by themselves. So, would I rather have Greene, Leon, a veteran 3rd RB and $4.5 million or so to spend elsewhere, or TJ, Greene & Leon? Probably option A.
I know I posed my own question, but the one you pose just isn’t realistic.
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brian311 says:
i would take option B
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mike t,
Well, I liked Franco a lot and besides being a much better RB than TJ, he somewhat benefited from 1982 (his 32nd year) being only 9 games because of the lockout. If you look at his gamelog, he tailed off very badly the second half of 1983. IMO, not a great example because of the lockout. Also, Franco went out sort of weakly, he was the subject of withering criticism by Jim Brown (whose career yardage record Franco was approaching) for not trying to get the tough yards anymore, opting to go out of bounds rather than fight for extra yardage. Brown even flirted with coming out of retirement and playing with the Raiders to protect his record from someone he considered unworthy of the record. Not exactly a great comparable for TJ.
Bettis, IMO, is even a worse example because he had been sharing carries once he hit 30 AND he didn’t start his season at 32 after a 5-year stretch of over 1500 carries AND his YPC was under 4 (and worse than the no. 2 RB, Duce Staley in his 32nd year). By 33, the Bus was done.
Again, it’s a big gamble that TJ, who has had a boatload of carries at 30 and 31 (and tailed off at the end of each season) can have a productive season at 32 and if he’d be done by 33 anyhow, why not begin the process of replacing him as the back up now?
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SD99 – Yes, but as you said, there are many reasons why the backup has YPC as good or close to (which by the way is not the same as “at LEAST as good as”, which is what you originally said) the starter and a big one is that they have fewer carries than the starter and the starter often wears out the D before the backup comes in. This is not factoring in garbage time runs when the game is essentially over, which primarily go to the backup. For instance, little Danny Woodhead had a better YPC than TJ. While I imagine you will pounce on this to say how over the hill TJ is, I say that most of his runs didn’t matter much and thus he got more YPC than he would’ve if he were the starter.
In some of the examples you stated, the backup played much of the season and in some, they just had better YPCs, which as illustrated above is not the be all, end all and I certainly don’t believe that a good backup must have “at least as good” YPC as the starter.
This is not to say that I think TJ should be THE GUY this year, just one of the guys. If there was a salary cap on the year, I wouldn’t feel this way. Without that financial limitation, I see no reason to cut him. You can worry all you want about his age, but as part of a 3 man team he would have far fewer carries and likely a higher YPC. I see why people get worked up about perceived “walls” (TJ’s age, Drew Brees’ height) but with TJ I see a guy who handled a big workload, had 1400 yards and 14 TDS, was a team and lockeroom leader and also had a low YPC. But it worked this year. Sometimes people feel the need to mess with what works – like the Ravens signing Johnson after Dilfer QB’d them to the superbowl. Seemed like a good idea at the time, how’d that work out for them?
Would a different RB have 1700 or 1800 yards? Maybe. Would they have been able to take the punishment and keep going (and not fumbling)? Maybe, maybe not. I just see a chance to keep what worked for another year and to evaluate Greene and Leon. I would rather find a RB next year after we know how those two guys look, as it could affect the type of runner we need if either of those two are not what we think/hope they are.
But we agree on finding a FB for T-Rich to bring up to speed, I just don’t see the need to cut TJ while doing so. -
Okay, let’s break down how the carries might be apportioned next season:
Greene-250
Leon-100
B. Smith-30
T-Rich-10
T. Jones-110(I basically flip TJ and Greene from 2009, boost Leon’s and B. Smith’s carries, which I think is a given, and give T-Rich a few more carries…but, Leon could have up to 50 more carries, which would make keeping TJ even more questionable).
On a per carry basis, TJ might be the highest NFL RB by far next season. I only differ as to Brendan’s “Plan A” because I want a rookie in the FB/RB slot, especially in a 4th quarter mop up role (something I hope we see lots of next season).
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miketaliaferro-
Great points. Particularly this one:
_____________________________________
C-Mart:
11 years: Had only THREE years with FEWER THAN 300 carries.Thomas Jones:
10 years: Has only THREE years with MORE THAN 300 carries________________________________________
It is a mystery how anyone can think that a back who’s been consistently reliable for five years—gaining more than 1,000 yards in each of those five years (not to mention, more than 1,300 in three of those five years)—it’s a mystery how anyone can think that we can KNOW now that said back (TJ) is “done,” that his career is over, that he won’t perform at anywhere near the level at which he has performed—consistently—over the past FIVE YEARS.
It’s also a mystery how anyone can think that a back who had ONLY 108 carries in 2009, as well as several injuries, as well as three lost fumbles—one lost fumble every 36 carries—it’s a mystery how anyone can think we can KNOW that this back (Shonn) will be able to take a pounding over the course of 16 games in 2010, and not get injured, not fumble. And still perform at a high level.
Here’s another stat to consider from 2009:
________
SHONN GREENE:
—FIVE GAMES with 10 or more carries.
—ZERO GAMES with 20 or more carries.
_________
Which means that Shonn spent significant time on the field in only FIVE games in 2009.
The point is that SG’s minimal experience in 2009—as well as his several injuries, as well as his several fumbles—makes any prediction about how Greene will perform in 2010 pure speculation.
You just can’t say the same thing about Thomas Jones, a back who has been CONSISTENT—consistently reliable–for FIVE out of the past FIVE YEARS.
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if TJ averages less than 7 carries per game next year, that is a very good thing. it means that Green and Leon are healthy and extremely effective.
i will take my chances on overpaying TJ for 2010. 1) it is not as simple as saying “we can spend TJ’s money on other players” because of the final 8 restrictions. 2) TJ provides insurance in case Greene gets hurt (based on his style of running and what happened in 2009) or if Leon is not a major factor (could easily happen coming off major injury)
otherwise, i pretty much agree with everything in NYC parking experts post above
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NYC PE,
I think you missed my point about back ups; also, I didn’t quibble, the guys I cited above as back ups all were at least as good on a YPC basis and even if you started to shave guys who were sligthly worse, the average back up is still at least as good in YPC as the starter (if I had the ability to quantify it, I’m willing to bet that the average back up actually has a slightly higher YPC). You made it sound like the opposite is true and that is flat wrong.
My problem is that if TJ is like he was in the playoffs, he will hurt the Jets and be an inadequate back up while taking PT away from a rookie or other player that should be groomed as T-Rich’s replacement. I see defined roles in the offense, FB, RB and 3rd down/change of pace RB. I think that an FB that is actually a viable part of the offense would improve the running game. I love T-Rich’s blocking, but I don’t like the FB to be just a blocker, I like a guy who can occasionally catch a pass in the flat or run up the gut for a quick hitter. T-Rich can do these things, but he’s 39 and primarily a blocker. Plus, RB is the most fungible position in football and with our OL, many a journeyman could be productive. So, I don’t fear handing the reins to Greene, getting a rookie RB/FB and cutting the cord with TJ. If it were such a no-brainer, there wouldn’t be reports that the Jets’ FO is conflicted as to whether he should be kept or cut.
I still say whether TJ is kept or cut, the Jets will add a few RBs and may even draft one.
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brian311,
The final 8 restrictions should have no impact on the Jets’ ability to acquire an RB or FB, especially a back up. They could draft, sign a UDFA, sign a cut player or a practice squadder. With only 1 RB slated to go in the 1st round of the draft, there will be plenty of talented RBs and FBs in the later rounds and with the prevailing NFL viewpoint that RBs are fungible, I’d be surprised if there weren’t a number of decent RBs cut. In particular, I’d watch what Tampa Bay does. Cadillac, Ward and Graham are all decent RBs and it would seem unlikely that the rebuilding Bucs keep all of them, especially Ward who has a big salary.
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SD99 –
Well, if TJ is the highest paid backup in the NFL, I could care less – this year.
As for TJ playing like he did in the playoffs, he will surely hurt us – as would any injured RB you could name.
There are a lot of reports out there, I am very skeptical about all of them until a name is attached.
As I mentioned in a prior post, a key reason to keep him is because when need to see who Leon is, post serious injury and because as much as we all love Greene, we have a very limited amount to judge him upon. I want to find out more about who these guys are and then make a more educated decision about what we need.
As for bringing in more guys, absolutely, not doing so is nuts. Everyone should have to earn a spot. As for drafting one, I could see drafting a FB, I just wouldn’t use a pick on another RB this year.
I am not a guy who believes in rewarding a player out of loyalty or because he is a “warrior’. The guy did well for us last year, if not in YPC then in total yards and TDS. If the FO decides he can’t cut it anymore, I won’t shed a tear. If he stays and has 110 carries as you suggest, I think he will help us.
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SD99 – with respect to spending the money we would otherwise pay to TJ – you really are only talking about signing players who are cut. we arent taking a RB in the 1st round of the draft, and the other methods of acquiring a player (UDFA, practice squader, etc) would not require a lot of capital. all positions considered, how many cut players are we going to spend $6M on? again, i dont think many exist. so i dont put as much weight into the “spend TJs money elsewhere”
lets see what RBs are cut. I’d rather have TJ than LT. if Tampa’s RBs are cut, I would definitely take a look at them. but i dont think the list of cut players overall, at RB is going to be that impressive
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brian 311,
Like I’ve said, it’s Woody’s money, but it’s also Rex’s locker room. How would Leon and Shonn (or their agents) feel if TJ makes a lot more money than they do? Greene, in particular, doesn’t make that much and I doubt whether Leon’s new deal will pay him in 2010 close to TJ’s salary. Also, how would a prideful guy like Jones take being the no. 3 RB? Would he sulk or complain? I think it’s nutty to pay that much to a back up who doesn’t play special teams and will earn more than the starters, but I’m in the minority on this thread.
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brian,
No one said that we have to spend the money saved from TJ on a RB. You could get a cheap veteran RB to sign for much cheaper than you’re paying TJ. You could bring in a rookie RB basically for free if he’s an UDFA.
The money saved on TJ could be put to use on defense. Where the Jets need a pass rusher, some D-line bodies and help in the defensive backfield.
What would a guy like Jamal Lewis cost? Last year he had concussion problems so looking beyond that to his last season, he ran for 3.6 ypc on a garbage team with a bad offensive line….the 2007 Thomas Jones! Lewis isn’t going to cost almost $6 million. That’s just one example, I’m sure there will be more. I would be in favor of signing Lewis to 1/3 of TJ’s 2010 contract and bringing in a late-round/UDFA rb/fb to groom to take over for T-Rich.
I like people who say “it’s an uncapped year, why would we cut him?” Because $5.9 million dollars is $5.9 million dollars, that’s why. Just because Woody is worth billions doesn’t mean it’s in a safe in his house. How much is liquid? He didn’t get rich by lighting 100 dollar bills on fire, so if he can save close to $6 mil, he’s going to do it.
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brendan:
Very good there guy, I think you and SD picked the wrong professions because both of you would have made wonderful MATADORS. You both have exhibited great ability to give a great looking pass to theee bull. Way to go and avoid my question and throw theee bull, my friend!!!.
You know darn well that by “CARRY the team” I meant be the #1 back, the go to guy, the guy that gets 80% of the carries, the one guy that will bring the lunch bucket and give the ‘gound ‘n pound’ every day.
So if you and SD 99 trully believe, and willing to bet the ranch that SG can/will be that guy and they should NOT pay TJ, then there is nothing else to say!!!
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If I had to bet my life on which would have a better season? All things being equal? I’ll take the guy who can make his own yards. I know you don’t need me to say who that is, but I’ll do it anyway.
Shonn Greene the War Machine.
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Brendan:
“If I had to bet my life on which would have a better season? All things being equal?’ You must mean like a ‘level playing field’ ? Because “CARRY” the load means like 300 carries. And I’ll bet the ranch that SG will NEVER see ANYTHING close to that!!!
Shown Green may be THE War Machine but we both know who THE Battle Tank is.
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Um, yeah, “level playing field” is another way of saying “all things being equal”, thanks for clarifying. And I would gladly bet you that NO Jets RB reaches 300 yards, barring an injury. The feature RB will be in the neighborhood of 250 carries. You bet your ranch, because I’ll make the same bet that TJ never makes it anywhere near 300 carries either. Even if he’s brought back, he’s looking at 100 carries, possibly a little more.
Greene is the man this year, I don’t think that’s up for debate. This was about whether or not TJ comes in to be the backup to Greene. But yeah, make it about who is going to start, even though it’s obvious to everyone (including Rex) who his best RB is.
It’s Shonn Greene, btw.
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Hank.
I don’t bet on this site and I think it’s obvious who I think will have more carries, yards, TDs and a better YPC…and that’s Shonn Greene. The only thing that TJ will have if he’s on the team is a lot more money than the guys higher on the depth chart.
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SD/Brendan:
We know that gambling over the ‘net state side is illegal, so betting the ranch is only a figure of spech, colloquialism. But what I can do is save the above posts, in sort of a time capsule, to be opened down the road apiece. So we’ll see.
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Haha, please feel free Hank. If you want, I can keep a running log of all your comments so I can pull them out 12 months down the road to prove a point no one will care about 12 months down the road. But sure, save away.
I don’t understand why everyone is speculating that Thomas is gone next year. Just to save some $ in an uncappped year? Gimme a break. The positives of keeping him around far outweigh the savings of a couple million (not mine) dollars. Remember, they won’t save his whole salary, they will need to pay his replacement. Why bother? Let him finish his contract and address the RB need after next season. I believe this has been Tannenbaum’s plan all along.