It’s Not Always About the Metrics
SI.com’s Peter King started his column today with a caution about the Scouting Combine, and just how seriously it should be considered in the draft process.
In my calls around the league in the last few days, I spoke to one club architect who shall remain nameless at his request. He told me his team had changed its way of doing business in the scouting realm this year, and his team’s draft board is “90 percent set.”
Quoth this architect: “You know why it’s 90 percent set now? Because guys go to the Scouting Combine and they change their grade on a player based on things that have nothing to do with playing football. I’m convinced if you took the stopwatches away from a lot of these guys, most of ‘em would not be able to tell you whether they liked a player or not.
“These guys go out and watch players all fall, then we all watch the tape of all these guys, and we see what kind of football players they are. That’s scouting. Who plays good football in pads? That’s scouting. Now we need the combine for the medical evaluations and the personal baggage stuff. But don’t come in after the combine and tell me you want to change some guy and move him way up because he ran faster than you thought he would. That’s where you get in trouble, and that’s why our draft board is pretty well set.”
If I told you who this speaker was, you’d all say, “Whoa, we have to listen to this guy. We respect him.” Just take my word for it. He’s legit.
I enjoy the combine. It gives me the chance to meet a lot of players I’ll be covering in the future and to see people in the NFL and get team-by-team updates. It’s valuable. But it’s way overrated in terms of deciding who should get picked where in the draft, and it always will be.
With the league and fans access ever increasing (via NFL Network and the like) the Combine was a blip on the NFL radar just ten years ago. Now it’s under intense focus that it never received to the average fan. A whole cottage industry pioneered by Mel Kiper has even sprung up.
After two years of defending Vernon Gholston, I’d have to agree with this unknown league exec’s assessment. Metrics are fine, but they need to be considered in context. The Jets drafted Vernon Gholston two years ago in large part because of his metrics, and after two years of little production, it’s hard to continue defending the move. Gholston might yet become a great player, but the point of grabbing someone at that spot is not to develop them, that’s what later picks should be for.
Nowadays, there are academies built for players to hone their Combine skills that they utlize in between the end of the NCAA season and the start of the Combine and Pro Days. I don’t begrudge players for using them, they know what’s at stake and that a tenth of a second can mean all the difference in the world on where they are drafted. The point is that it shouldn’t have as much focus as it does. But with hundreds of players available, every factor is considered, and this is one of those factors. The Combine might be about subtle shifts, but in large part, teams heavy lifting should be done by this point.
30 Responses to It’s Not Always About the Metrics
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I asked this question a few weeks ago but …..Whats the over/under on how many times Vernon Gholston “combine work out” and “bust label” will be brought up the next 2 weeks? The term looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane or He looks good getting off the bus line might be in full effect this year!!!
It is clear that VG has become the new “Mike Mamula”…. actually worse since Mamula actually played a little bit and was somewhat involved in the game.
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GP says:
Yep, you gotta be weary of some of these combine superstars. In my perfect world, you’d put all the players at each position in a hand-to-hand battle royale. That way, you’d know who had the killer instinct it took to dominate in the pros.
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Bent says: Yes, proceed with caution when considering combine data, but disregard it completely at your peril. Every year guys come out of nowhere based on their combine results and do perform well. Also, highly rated guys will fall based on their combine numbers and amount to nothing.
These results should absolutely be factored into decisions, they just shouldn’t drive them.
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Brendan says:
Hopefully Gholston puts together a good season this year so people find a new player to throw into every NFL combine article under the “be wary of this guy” section.
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Bassett
“Gholston might yet become a great player…… ”
You just had to throw that in…. lol
I think we all know what VG is at this point. No need to sugar coat it anymore. If he gives us any production will be happy but…. the great player thoery is long gone.
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david i says:
AKA…Drew
Take the number of teams, times the number of local journalist, plus the national reporters, local sports newscasters all across the US, so I would say somewhere in the 1,500-2,000 times the fact that they will say it multiple times and you have to think maybe 20,000 to 40,000, which is about the number of times Mangini and Tannenbaum think about it daily during this time of year when working on their boards.
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brian g. says:
I really think we should go for best player available this season in the draft no matter the position (unless its a QB).
I think we should draft a solid player who can make an impact right away but not much potential than a player with a lot of potential but wont produce much early on. -
anthony says:
Gp- that was great lol I just laughed out loud at work
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I have a glimmer of hope that VG can be decent as a down lineman if he bulks up. While it’s hard to believe he’ll ever be worth what we paid him, it will help our depth to have another guy in the rotation.
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Harlan Lachman says:
Bent, I think it is OK to devalue a player based on his combine and pro day measurables.
I just don’t think it should be used to devalue a player unless that player’s ranking on a team’s board was great for production but someone thought he was too slow, short, tall or fat.
Production seems to be the best correlation to success. Almost never should measurables outweigh production.
harlan
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I’ve never understood why the combine influenced the draft so much. A guy runs a 4.1 40 time…great! Can he run 4.1 with pads on? Can he do anything with that speed other than run in a straight line? I just would put a lottttt more weight into game film than a pro day or a combine, where players have been trained to perform certain exercises to the max of their ability. Just because you train to jump 40 inches one day doesn’t mean you’re jumping 40 inches come your first game in September. I’d rather see the on-field production, not a bunch of guys perform tricks for the NFL.
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The draft will always have workout warriors like Heyward bey, Gholston etc… ( you have guys like Vernon Davis who was a workout guy but has become a pretty good player) ……. but what about guys like Joe Flacco and Chris Johnson that were not highly rated based on their college production and then went to the Combine and clearly influenced their draft status. Both were supposed to be 2nd -3rd round picks a month before the combine.
The Combine workouts hold some value. Its up to the scouts to make the math work on real players and the phoneys
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“( you have guys like Vernon Davis who was a workout guy but has become a pretty good player) ”
!!!!!!!!!!!
Pulling this out of Drew’s statement because we have a guy like this of our own. Ultra raw. Freak of nature athletically. Never had to rely on skill because they were worlds above their opponents in terms of athleticism. Eventually was taught the game correctly, and is not a beast.
This is a good example of what could potentially be Gholston’s good career arc. There are endless examples of what his bad career arc could be. But at least this is a guy that had similar early-career struggles as Gholston, but has shown if you stick with it you can come out of it as a real football player.
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SackDance99 says:
I thought it was obvious from his play and his “highlights” that VG didn’t have what it takes to be the pass-rushing god that many thought he’d become. Pass rushing is a skill that VG didn’t possess. That he had a good number of sacks at OSU was basically meaningless because he didn’t really have to work for those sacks. He just edge rushed and ran a straight path to the QB. No moves, no work.
The Combine actually works against good football players without great measurables. That’s why a guy that I thought was a can’t miss defensive player, like Maualuga, went 2nd round or a talented RB like Shonn Greene lasts until the 3rd round. But, I also think the Combine gives the little known players (often with great stats) that played for bad Div. I teams or at smaller non-Div. I teams a platform to get recognized. Flacco is a great example of the Combine working. But, the biggest “bust” potential is for the “workout warriors” from Div. I schools that got by solely because of their athleticism. That’s why I also disliked DHB last year and touted Percy Harvin. Harvin was the most electric player in college football in 2008, while DHB was a Combine sensation. When in doubt, go for the guy that looks like he was born to play football.
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Brendan
Totally different…Davis had a decent rookie year he then struggled under offensive, QB and eventually coaching changes until finally getting on the same page with the staff……His problems were more attitude based than actual skill and playing time.
VG has a great attitude and is suppsoed to be a great kid…. But under 2 staffs that scream for some production from an OLB…he never sees the field.
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SD99
Totally agree on the combine…..
I will admit while I hated VG in college and thought he was vastly overrated I “hoped” when we picked him he could be coached up and translate his “measureables” to the field.
He was a one dimensional player at OSU and his “1″ sack of Jake Long was the most overhyped meaningless play of the year.
The light has not gone on and its looks like it never will.
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Harvlis says:
I agree with the unidentified GM, as to the importance of the Combine. What happens on the football field should determine an opinion about a player. The time in a 40yd dash is nice but, let’s see the players run a 40, after playing for three quarters, with pads on.
The combine is definitely useful, as a central workout location, to gauge a players health and personality.
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“struggled under offensive, QB and eventually coaching changes until finally getting on the same page with the staff”
Liiiike changing head coaches, defensive coordinators, position coaches, and defensive schemes in Gholston’s first two seasons?
I think they’re similar because Davis’ receiving skillset wasn’t on level with an NFL player’s. He wasn’t quite as raw as Gholston, but it wasn’t far off. He was a freak of nature (watching him run the 40 actually scared me) but he also didn’t know how to run a route. I agree his attitude did factor into his struggles quite a bit, but the overall similarities are there between the two.
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Hah, I don’t think I have more than a 3% chance of being right, and that’s being optimistic. I just saw the similarities and am holding onto any straw i can grasp for this kid.
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Brendan,
I think Davis had an easier path. First, TE is an easier position to “learn” (Antonio Gates is a good example…played basketball and high school football and has become one of the top receiving TEs of all time). TE is a position where if you start with great athleticism, you may be able to create a good TE. Second, VG did not really have a natural NFL position. He was projected to become a WILL/DE hybrid, playing primarily with his hand off the ground. And, he was supposed to be a pass rusher. But, IMO, pass rushing takes a lot of skill and natural ability. I don’t think you can “learn” to be a good pass rusher as easily as you can learn to be a TE, who often times isn’t even covered at the LOS. I just have never seen VG display any pass rush ability and that’s the only reason he was drafted at 6.
Now, I do think that VG could, maybe, become a 3-4 DE, but he would have to gain weight, which could affect his speed. I think we have to forget about his ever becoming an OLB or a pass rusher. He could be a guy who occupies a couple of OL and isn’t blown off the ball. It’s just not what he was drafted at no. 6 for. I think the cautionary tale is not to avoid “workout warriors” completely, it’s to look at the tape, see if the guy is a player AND that he has an NFL position waiting for him. After 2 years, I really have no idea what defensive position VG could play and I still think it’s unlikely that a guy as strong and as fast as VG has no NFL position. But, if Rex and Pettine can’t find a place for him, maybe the position doesn’t exist.
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SD,
I don’t disagree with any of what you said. I realize that learning the WILL spot is much harder than a tight end in terms of acquired skills. And I won’t disagree that Davis came better equipped than VG for the pro’s. I was just pointing out that ultra-raw project players do work out in some cases. Another would be Calvin Pace, who virtually disappeared in Arizona before his big season prior to becoming a Jet.
I guess I am just holding out a little more hope for the kid than I should be. I agree his best spot would be a down lineman, maybe he will find better luck leaving the Jets and becoming a 4-3 DE. But just because he’s a project player who hasn’t performed I am not going to write off a 23 year old with out-of-this-world athleticism as many people have already done. But again, I’d be foolish to disagree with any of what you wrote. I just wanted to point out to people that being ultra-raw and underperforming (or not performing) doesn’t mean they’re never going to perform well.
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I agree with Brendan and Harvlis – at the very least, I wish the combine had guys run in full pads and helmet. I want to see how well a guy retains his pure speed with the extra weight on him.
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The best part of the combine is listening to Mike Mayock. This guy usually understands what players can translate their skills to the pro game every year.
To add to SD99 VG’s point. When Rex and Pettine got here they stated if we cant get anything out of him….nobody will. Then after camp Pettine did an interview when he flat out said…VG has speed and power but has not been able to translate that to the field yet. He then said…..Hopefully we can find a way to help him do that….That was before he did nothing at all year in 2009.
Maybe he can eat block at 280lbs at DE but he will never be a pass-rushing player.
BTW … Mayock hated Gholston coming out and had a 2nd grade on him.
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BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
cough…cough…Ozzie Newsome…cough.
justa hunch.
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miketaliaferro says:
The Combine would be greatly enhanced by draping a 337-lb. weight around each player’s shoulders for each event — just to help show how they’d handle things in the NFL.
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Brendan,
I thought maybe he could play in a 4-3, too. But, he’d be an LDE on the strong side, not an RDE. But, he’d still have to hand fight well enough to shed the TE in a double team. He’s a tough fit on the defense. Maybe ILB? Except, he doesn’t read the offense very well. Oh, never mind!
Couldn’t agree more. I just posted about this in another thread, seconds before basset’s post went up.
Normally I can’t stand Florio, but he had some interesting things about the combine as well:
“Unless and until the Scouting Combine includes games between incoming NFL players and current NFL players, nothing that happens this week will provide keen insight into whether men who were great college players will be good pro football players.”
can you say vernon gholsten? at least dustin keller is working out better.