Thoughts on the loss of Thomas Jones to this team in 2010.
Right Place, Right Time — Thomas Jones was Mike Tannenbaum’s first real big trade for a player. The deal consisted of the Jets and Bears swapping some second rounders, (net of one third rounder from a value standpoint). Think about that for a second. The Jets got a guy who led the backfield for three years as a savvy veteran and was an integral leader to this team for the price of a third round pick. Yes please. When the history book is written on Tannenbaum’s career, I think this was the first move that we saw from the Jets in which they went against the convention of overvaluing draft picks in exchange for veteran players … Kris Jenkins, Lito Sheppard, and even Braylon Edwards could be bundled into this building strategy the Jets have used well in recent years.
The Age Defying Effect– Beyond his intense conditioning, if you take a close look at Jones career, he wasn’t used heavily in his first few years in Arizona, and because of that, he’s been able to play at a high level until this year. Still, I think that the Jets saw this coming to a close at the end of this season. We saw that in the Colts postseason game. Once the onus was on him, he was unable to run effectively enough to provide a counter to the Colts run stoppers. I don’t think this will change dramatically going forward. Jones might start the year strong, but by the end of next season, he’s not going to be a guy that the team could guarantee he would be reliable …
The Productivity Was Lagging — Running for under four yards a carry is not a good sign for running backs. Jones has been doing just this a lot, with one of the best blocking units in the game ahead of him. Football Outsiders ranked Jones just 24th against a replacement level player (so only 9 spots away from the “backup” level — the 33rd player in the league) and was 32nd in terms of his value in any given situation when he touched the ball. That’s not a good sign, as his numbers will continue to decrease in coming years. I like Jones a lot, and I think that he’ll be a contributor wherever he lands in 2010. 1,400+ yards and 14 TDs was pretty impressive, but people look at his 2009 statistics and use it as a benchmark that he can continue to do it. I don’t think that’s a smart idea.
The Economics Were Against Staying — At his salary and bonus amount, the team just wasn’t going to get what they were going to pay for on the field. After last year asking for a restructure and being rebuffed, there was no way that Thomas Jones was going to agree to a pay cut from Mike Tannenbaum. And I don’t blame him for a minute. It remains to be seen what Jones can command on the open market, but it seems Jones and Rosenhaus feel better about what they can get there than whatever the Jets were offering. Good luck to them in getting a better deal.
Factor in the Lockout — The League and the Union might well avoid a lockout, they’ve got a year to do it, but the threat of a potential lockout probably makes Thomas Jones realize that 2010 is even that much more important from a salary standpoint for him. He might not play in 2011, and it’s not like there’s that much football left for him as a 34 year old running back in 2012, presuming that’s when the league would return from a potential lockout.
Leadership Concerns — I’m sure the void will be filled by someone, but Jones was the vocal leader of this unit.
The Depth of the Draft — Watching Combine coverage Sunday, Mike Mayock gushed that he thought that running back was a position of extreme depth in this draft. With the influx of undersclassman in this draft, the Jets could grab a nice piece way down the draft board to help chip in behind Leon and Shonn. I think that economically, this allows them to spend the money they would otherwise have spent on Jones re-working the deal of someone like Revis or Mangold.
The third 3rd is the value of the second round swap, as you state.
That’s six picks, PLUS the money and cap space, not to mention useful contributors Stuckey (7th round pick) and Trusnik (who we missed).
I liked the TJ deal at the time and still want him to stay, but in general believe trade and sign will hurt you in the long run since you essentially are signing a free agent AND giving up picks.
So we got a pro-bowl WR, pro-bowl RB, pro-bowl NT and took a gamble on an old pro-bowler hoping he could regain form. To do this we gave up a special teams player (a good one, but a ST player nonetheless), a slot receiver, and picks. I would 100% do that again.
All those picks, btw, equal a late 1st round pick. So for a late first round pick the Jets got Braylon, Jenkins, TJ & Lito. Thank you and yes please.
Wise – yes, but they have all been better than you would expect from just using the pick. You’re getting a sure thing.
Look at the other side of the coin. It’s no different from the decision whether to extend a player. If the Jets extended Vilma, that would have cost them cap space and they would have never received the pick they got by trading him. Did the Saints get hosed though? Nope, he helped them win a title.
The last 3 3rd rounders, 1 4th and 2 5ths the Jets drafted…Greene, Schlegal, Eric Smith, Dwight Lowery, Erik Ainge, Jason Pociask. You wouldn’t trade them for Jenkins, Jones, Lito and Braylon, would you? As for signing them to extensions, giving up the picks (which I think i’ve just proven is worthwhile) enables you to target guys who are perfect fits, rather than just being restricted to those who are on the FA market.
Hey SD:
Here are some stats for you:
There are about 210 RB’s/FB’s in the NFL.
Guess how many were able to carry 200 times but less than 300?
sixten (16) or about 0.08%
Guess how many were able to rush for OVER 300 times?
Seven (7) or about 0.03% …….Jones was #2
Noticed Jones was # Thirty One (31) in top RB Salaries paid last year!!!
Tannenbaum= Penny wise/pound foolish!!!!
Hank,
Jones was 3rd in RB salary in 2007, when he averaged 3.6 yards per carry and had 2 touchdowns (1 receiving, 1 rushing). So that was worth being the 3rd highest paid RB in football? When he had over 300 touches? As I’ve been saying to other posters, the salary argument isn’t valid since he clearly didn’t come close to being a top 3 RB that year.
I have to admit that releasing TJ feels “pennywise, poundfoolish” in an uncapped year, but if Greene stays healthy and curbs his fumblitis, Leon returns even somewhat to form and we pick up a decent player to fill the void, we won’t feel it that much. Still think he would’ve been a great insurance policy. Expensive as a backup? Hell yeah, but do I give a damn for an owner who wants to fleece as many of us as possible with PSAs? Hell, no.
Too bad TJ wouldn’t budge on re-negotiating. Don’t quite know what he thinks he can get out there, will be interesting to see.
Jones should have held out last year in retrospect. I hope that we do the right thing and find a way to keep him here.
Brendan:
C’mon guy, you keep bringing that silly fact up.
Try these:
How about Jone was the only RB (i believe) within the last five years with five consecutive 1000+ rushing yards with about 1000 rushing attemptsand NOT missing a BEAT?
Or,
How about Jones EARNINGt he lowest $$$$$/yd rushed of all RB’s in ’09?
NYCPE:
That is a LOTTA IFS, right?
Hank, I keep bringing it up because it’s relevant.
Everyone weeping for the poor millionaire NFL star who only made $1,000,000 last year, when he got a big payday to do very little in 2007. So you complain he was underpaid in 2009, and I counter with he was overpaid in 2007. In my mind, those two years even out, and he was pretty fairly compensated in 2008. That means, to me, in his 3 years he was fairly compensated as a whole.
To the Pro-TJ guy’s,Thank’s!!!To the rest,explain to me who can protect Mr.Mark?Not only was TJ a great N.F.L. running-back but a positive citizen as well.Graduated from College in three year’s.A special thank’s to MikeTaliaferro for great commentary.I could’nt have said it better.
Brendan, I agree that TJ was fairly compensated as a whole while he was here. Don’t really agree that he did very little in 2007. The guy played behind a terrible Oline with either an injured chad or KC as the QB. Still got over 1000 yards and while that may no longer be the milestone it once was, I feel it was a milestone behind that year’s swiss cheese Oline. I thought he played his heart out every year he was here, and earned his fair compensation.
tjmax,
Who can protect Mark? Let’s hope the O-line, since that’s what we pay them for.
NYCPE,
To be honest, I agree. But people make it seem that 2007 was due to a horrendous O-line, but this year was solely TJ. It’s like there’s no middle ground. TJ couldn’t make his own yards in 2007, and the O-line made him more effective this year.
I think the good from this year was a little “too good” and the bad from 2007 was a little “too bad” if you understand what I mean. I think 2008, with a good, not great, O-line and a good, not great TJ, is the median and what I believe TJ’s real worth is.
Brendan, agreed, 100%. A monster Oline helps any back and certainly can make a good one seem excellent.
Still woulda kept him this year without cap ramifications, guess that’s why I’m not the GM! Or maybe owner is more like it!
have to agree with hank/naples,
“Penny wise/pound foolish!!!!”
if he’d be 2nd or 3rd back in 2010, he’d be the best 2nd or 3rd back in the league.
Brendan:
You know, you keep insisting that soo overpaid in ’07, but you did not do the math!!!
AS bad as you say he was, dollar to donuts that he was NOT the HIGHEST paid RB per carry in ’07 BUT he WAS the LOWEST paid RB per carry in ’09.
“he WAS the LOWEST paid RB per carry in ‘09.”
Apart from:
- Adrian Peterson
- Ray Rice
- Jamaal Charles
- Jerome Harrison
- Marion Barber
- Pierre Thomas
- Kevin Smith
- Matt Forte
- Justin Forsett
- Ahmad Bradshaw
- Tim Hightower
- Steve Slaton
- Mike Bell
I may have missed some others.
Slaton, Bell and Forte were the only three with a lower ypc than Jones.
His average salary over the three years was 4.7m, which would have been 12th highest in the NFL in 2009.
Brendan,
One thing we can agree on, which others can’t see, it seems, is that none of TJ’s salary years have been typical — by design — due specifically IMHO to how it was structured when it was struck.
Coming off of a SB, he had leverage so he used it. He didn’t trust the Jets (or any team) to not do what they just did to him (smart call), so he had it front-loaded. Fine.
I should say at this point that I brought up TJ’s being the 57th highest paid RB in ’09 not in order to say he was grossly underpaid, but to point out that contract’s structure offered Tanny a year within it that offered an easing of payment pressure and allowed Tanny some much-needed flexibility. TJ made what he made that year by design, regardless of what others made.
The further point about that 3rd year is that TJ worked just as hard as he had the other two years because that’s the only way he knows how to work, and he understood the overall numbers of the contract. So, he kept his mouth shut with the press, became a loud voice in the locker room, and carried the load against stacked decks to a #3 finish in rushing.
What concerns me is your continued dogging of his overall play for the life of the contract. I’m not sure what you wanted of the man, or what he could have done to please you, or who you think was a better, more consistent runner from 2007 until today.
He wasn’t good enough to somehow overcome one of the worst OLs in franchise history in ’07. A line that would have gotten Gayle Sayers killed. The fact is that he survived that experience and still gained 1,119 yards placed him at #10 among NFL rushers (#5 in the AFC). Behind THAT line. A Top 10 rusher on a rotten team. And he was UNDERPAID? Sorry, amigo, I just don’t see it. I say give the man a medal for what he did that year. The contract was front loaded into that year by design. It wasn’t his fault the team stunk. That 3.6 YPC may have been his best personal work of the contract.
His 2008 only won the AFC rushing title (#5 in the NFL this time), and that was only due to an improved OL, of course. Because TJ is clearly deficient (YPC – 4.5).
His 2009 only produced 1,402 yards (third in the NFL, YPC – 4.2), so obviously he squandered an OL running on all cylinders from Day One by not gaining 2000+ yards.
So, in three years he finished as a Top 10 rusher, a Top 5 and a Top 3 in the league. There are, what, 60 – 70 RBs in the league?
No, I do not shed a tear for TJ’s financial history (and future). He’s very well off. What I see is someone who not only held up their end of the bargain, he even prospered and lead.
I’m simply having a very hard time seeing this useless RB you keep writing about — esp. for 2007.
Bent:
Sorry Bent, this time you are wrong. You can’t jump in the middle of a conversation and expect to be right all the time.
My discussion with Brendan was involving RB’s that A) Are NOT under rookie contracts, and
B) My assertion is salary earned per carry, NOT yds. per carry.
Looked at your top eight (8) on your list and the only one that qualifies is Marion Barber ( I believe) and he beats Jones by more than $17.00/carry.
I did not bother to do the math on the others
PS. A Peterson signed a contract with $17 million gteed.
Hank – That WAS salary per carry. I just pointed out that only three of them had lower yards per carry as well, because my intention was to point out that there are guys out there that carry the ball more cost effectively than he did even in the lowest year, salary wise, of his contract. If you’re looking at salary per carry, then where do you think he would rank next year, earning $6m and carrying the ball maybe as low as 100-150 times if he’s the 3rd RB? Probably most expensive in the NFL. That’s what happens when you have a contract that fluctuates like this one.
As, I said average salary over the three years was 4.7m, which would have been 12th highest in the NFL in 2009. That’s reasonable enough. Paying him $5.8m in the year when he’s a backup when you have no obligation to do so, obviously made no financial sense to them. I’d have done it anyway, but I can see how they might think they can do something more cost effective.
I accept that most of these are in their rookie contract and I missed that part of your conversation, but look at the decision that is facing the Jets now. Clearly, they might choose to replace him with a rookie, so this has shown that they can get great value for their money, especially when compared with $6m (which would have been a top 8 salary in 2009) instead of $1m.
“A Peterson signed a contract with $17 million gteed.”
So? The money he received last year was $745,000 and he had almost as many carries as Jones. Jones signed a contract with $8m guaranteed, but only received $1,000,000 last year.
The point I was trying to make in my last post above is — Tanny has received full value for any and all monies he’s paid TJ over three years.
And also that TJ has earned the right to be paid like the Top 10 back that he is.
Bent —
Any idea about Peterson’s contract numbers and structure? Is that a trough year also, like TJ’s?
Mike,
I am not saying that it’s TJ’s fault completely for 2007. I’m just saying for his performance, he was overpaid. He was underpaid this year. The fluctuating contract, I agree, was structured this way on purpose. Give TJ solid pay years, give a trough year for cap relief, and his last year has no dead money. Pretty fair contract for both sides. I agree with your last post, aside from top 10 back statement. Basically when I think “top 10 back” I think of the first 10 guys at RB I’d pick if we were playing a pickup game. He’s just not top 10 for me, and on this I’m sure we can agree to disagree.
Hank,
Salary per carry, to me, doesn’t imply overpaid/underpaid. Production does. You can get 400 carries while getting $6.5 million, so by your stats that’d be fairly paid (or slightly overpaid) but if that guy gets 1200 yards and 3 td’s, that’s overpaid.
Mike – his salary jumps to 3.64m in 2010 and 7.72m in 2011, as far as I’m aware.
Bent:
This is really just silly to go ’round ‘n round!! But I’ll take just one mo stab at it.
The crux of the matter is and should be, whether or not Jones has earned the right to fulfill his contract. and the club HONOR it…..NOT…..whether or not Jones will be/deserves to be a back-up this year!!!!
Keep in mind the latter will not be determined untill the “fat lady sings”
We’re becoming fairly agreed there, Brendan.
Except on the use of backyard draft-pick bragging rights vs. official NFL player stats. On that, ahem, yes, we’ll have to agree to disagree.
Bent –
Thanks for the numbers on AP. Hmmm, for a rookie contract (somehow, I thought he was older…) of $4.54m, 2.82m, 760k, 3.64m and 7.72m, now THERE is a man who’s underpaid. If this were not a rook contract, I’d say the 2011 year was also a fantasy. But he should get that. But for his future, if he keeps toting it in the high 300s (two of the last three years), he won’t have much left to offer for another contract.