Revisiting the Secondary
I wrote shortly after the Colts Championship game that the Jets (and us their fans) needed to be cautious when it comes to over analyzing the last thing the team showed us, in terms of going forward with planning for the future. Rich Cimini of the Daily News wrote yesterday while the Jets need to address their secondary, maybe they weren’t as bad off as some thought.
Did a little research on ProFootballFocus.com and uncovered interesting tidbits about the Jets’ cornerback performance in 2009. Dwight Lowery and Sheppard finished fifth and sixth in the league, respectively, in the category of percentage of passes completed — 47.9 and 48.1. (By definition, that’s the percentages of balls completed into a player’s coverage.)
Based on that stat, Lowery should be the odds-on favorite to replace Sheppard, but it looks like the Jets will use the draft and maybe a trade to fortify that area.
By the way, some guy named Revis led the NFL in that category at 36.9%.
I think that the Jets secondary was extraordinary over the course of the season, but Peyton Manning was able to best it. According to Football Outsiders, there hasn’t been as effective a secondary since the 2004 Bills. 9/10 games that unit shuts down it’s opponent, but in the Championship game, against the best other team in the AFC, the Jets lost out.
Maybe that’s overly cavalier, and I see that. If the goal is a Super Bowl trophy, then having an even more bulletproof secondary would be great, but it’s not like the current unit is dog food. You can’t say that this unit needs a major overhaul. A tweak? Yes definitely. More than anything, I think the Jets have an open road to approach how to better this unit. They can either go after a better pass rusher, or a corner, but the Jets aren’t going to screech to a grinding halt without Sheppard. With Revis, help can swing over the top all day to the second corner, and that’s more help outside of Tampa-2 schemes than most corners get.
So let’s first address corner. I for one wouldn’t mind the Jets re-signing Lito, but with the injury concerns, you can’t contract him anything that would approximate to him being a long-term answer. There’s that possibility that the Jets could try and swing a free agent like Dunta Robinson, but with the lack of talent available unrestricted, the Jets would have to likely overpay for him. Pass. Lowery could hold the fort while they get a rookie online at the other starting spot. Or if the Jets are slotted out of drafting a corner high, they could try and grab a slot corner, as that’s really where I think the Jets biggest need in the secondary lies.
Just about a year ago, here’s something that KC Joyner wrote this on Fifth Down about Sheppard and how Lowery might be the better longer-term answer.
Sheppard’s overall history says he tends to give up a lot of yards and his value is almost completely dependent on getting picks. Philadelphia let him go because the risk/reward ratio was on the wrong side of the ledger. Rex Ryan’s scheme may give Sheppard a much needed shot in the arm in this area, but if he doesn’t show some Lester Hayes-like hands early in 2009, don’t be surprised if Dwight Lowery and his 7.1 YPA find their way back into the Jets’ starting lineup.
I like Lowery a lot. I distinctly remember one pass on the Jets four yard line to Pierre Garcon during the Championship game that was fantastic. Lowery came over the back in the end zone to make a clean break up on Garcon. It was pure butter. It might have been one of the single best pass defense of the game. His ability to make plays on the ball is uncanny in some spots. That said, Dwight Lowery is limited. Speed is an issue for him and that could limit his ability to play the slot, still he has some amazing abilities to break up passes.
Second, what about a pass-rusher? I personally would like to see a better base package rusher (meaning someone who can also defend the run) as opposed to a situational (third down) player, but that’s harder to come by, so economics and CBA constrictions will limit the Jets ability to do that.
25 Responses to Revisiting the Secondary
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sexy rexy says:
we need a true playmaker like revis on the other side of the ball that can make things happen. im sorry but Dwight Lowery is solid but he is not that guy. Kyle Wilson people im telling you this kid is gonna be a star and hes a Jersey Boy…remember Sexy Rexy said it first.
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Brendan says:
Actually, lots of other people have already said it. But I like the idea. Lowery is a ball-hawking DB, but I don’t think he has the skills to be an every-down corner. He’d be a better fit at Eric Smith’s hybrid nickel back/safety role, in my opinion. Adding Wilson (who is a football player, not an athlete who plays football) to the DB’s would be a great move.
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Dylan says:
The only way to hide Lowery and Lito’s inability to cover is by playing a zone scheme. However, zone is not Revis’s strength, so by playing it we are wasting the best cover corner in the game. The Jets NEED to find a good cover corner who can play opposite Revis. Lowery is forced to give a huge cushion because he is not fast enough to stay with most receivers. Lito is terrible at reading the receivers routes so he also gets beat deep a lot. We might be able to get by teams like the Dolphins or Bills without a good #2 corner, but we will NOT beat the Patriots or Colts. We beat the Patriots when Welker was hurt, and Edleman still destroyed us. We beat the Colts in a meaningless game with Garcon hurt. In order to stop Welker, Garcon, and Collie we absolutely need to have a better #2 corner.
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Bent says: See? Cimini’s using PFF now. When I used it to illustrate that Rhodes actually had a decent year, everyone dismissed it as a load of nonsense.
The Jets did play some zone in the playoffs with Revis still covering his guy man-to-man. I guess this was intended to “hide” guys, as Dylan suggests, but without mitigating was Revis could do. Against the Colts, the big issue was the drop off from Lito (when he was playing well earlier in the year) to Lowery, Strickland to Coleman and (especially) Scott to Ihedigbo in coverage. With more depth and better personnel, this could slow down even a team like the Colts. Dare I say a better pass rush would help too.
If the Jets move Rhodes, they will probably have to play that type of scheme more often, because what they did for much of the year relied on having him ranging deep, which not many safeties can do as well.
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neauone says:
I’m not sure we need a corner as badly as we need a pass rushing specialist.B Get someone to put pressure on the QB before he can set up and the secondary will take care of itself. In the S.B. which the Giants won against N.E. they won on defense. Tom Brady had the greatest single year of any QB in history, but the game was won in the trenches, N.E. had no answer for all the pressure and the sacks on T.B. If left to himself Brady would have carved up the Giants, he never had a chance to get comfortable and when he did he heard footsteps. So I will not say we “don’t” need a better corner, but I do think we need a better pass rush.
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david i says:
This was my point to Brendan yesterday. At the end of the day, we had a great secondary. Not one where we needed to hit the panic button in the AFC Championship. No offense to Lowery and Coleman, but they are not Shepard and Strickland. Granted, Strickland is made out of paper mache (sp?) and Lito was never going to see that bonus. But this is the only D that shut down the new Super Bowl champs Offense in the their home dome. I agree with Cimini 100%. Now that we are where we are, it will be interesting see how the cards get played out over the next two months via trades, free agency and the draft. I have faith in Mr. T.
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Joe Haden just ran a 4.57 and a 4.60. He could freefall after times like that.
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Get to the QB and the DB’s will look alot better.
I am not saying we shouldnt address it but this team had the #1 defense and got beaten by “maybe” the greatest QB of all time.
Lets not overreact with our secondary. Get a OLB that can cause damage off the egde and Lowery or whoever is opposite Revis will look alot better
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I like improving the pass rush as a priority. I agree with Bent, that when Lito, Strickland and Scott went down, the D became completely unravelled.
It was easy to blame it on the secondary, but it’s more an issue of depth than needing a stud opposite Revis. -
ron2473000 says:
What about the possibility of playing Lowery at FS and then drafting a CB (wilson, or robinson, no way haden drops to us but you never know) because if you look at his stats besides the sacks and tackles he has comparable overall numbers to Rhodes. I know playing safety is much different from cb but remember ASO was a safety in college but he switched and lowery doesn’t have the speed but he makes up for that with instincts for making plays on the ball and forcing fumbles and last but not least tackling which is our major problem with rhodes. I know this isn’t just a tweak but our hands or tied and this is another solution to help plus trading rhodes could land us some more pics while not giving away our strategy of replacing him with another safety we can’t sign or afford anyhow?
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Jack says:
I’m pretty sure those percentages are identical to the “burn rate” numbers that were posted on ESPN, STATS Inc, etc. throughout the season.
I still maintain that the Jets biggest need is not on the defensive secondary or even on the defense. Sure, you can argue for upgrades there. You can argue for upgrades everywhere. But if you take away the special teams points and points off turnovers the Jets D gave up less than 11 points per game. You can ground and pound all you want but in this league you have got to have an offense that scores more than the Jets did this past year and cuts down on the turnovers.
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jsa says:
Agree with this, way too many people seem to just be looking at the last game the Jets played, and ignoring how this secondary was the strength of the team all season long, and the best in the league. Lowery played well most of the season, and graded out much better last year than, say, Dunta Robinson, according to the stats from profootballfocus and other sites.
That said, I would love to get Nnamdi if that’s possible without giving up a ton, because he’s up there among the top 5 (probably top 3) CBs in the game. A secondary with Nnamdi and Revis would be just ridiculously strong and allow Rex to do so many things.
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That would be great to get ASO but honestly have we asked what we really have to give up to get him. I don’t believe Tanny will give up a 1st rd because he hasn’t since being the GM and we all know that is what it will take to get ASO. Yeah we can throw rhodes in that deal but that still leaves up with a hole at FS…..
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originalJetFan says:
Iam totally confused, we have the #1 pass defense in football, our corners have the 1, 5, 6 best reception records in football and we are saying thats our biggest wekness because the guy who some say is the greatest QB in history beat us? Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush thats what we need, that and an offensive passing game (which will come) so the D doesnt have to keep people below 20 every game.
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Do we want to go down that road again with another VG bust at olb, which olb rates to be picked in rd 1 that doesn’t seem to be a 1 yr wonder. I would rather send the 1st rd pick and player/pick to get either berry/thomas. This is passing league now….
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originalJetFan,
I like the way you think my friend.
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bonebreaker says:
I also think that Kyle Wilson would be great pick and if we could get him at the end of the first round that would be a steal. I like Lowery and after another preseason he will only get better. However, you can never have too many CB’s and when you have an opertunety to get a good one you should take it.
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SackDance99 says:
Better pass rush and the second CB improves automatically. It’s a passing league, so putting the QB on the ground or hurrying him translates into more turnovers or seeing the back up QB. I will say this, again. No rookie CB taken at 29 in the first round or later will have the “once every 10 years” impact of Revis. Even expecting a rookie to be more than a decent nickel back is folly. And, getting a good vet means that the Jets will spend 20% of the cap on CBs and just 80% on the other 20 starters, including highly paid guys like QB, LT, WR, DE, NT and OLB.
The Jets do not have a WILL/DE pass rush hybrid on the roster and haven’t had one since the change to the 3-4 in 2006. How about we finally get one? Pretty please?
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Didn’t we try that wit Gholston….what happened to him?
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and honestly how many people actually knew about revis and if could make the impact he did before we got him…..if I remember correctly he wasn’t even a top 10 pick that year!!!
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Marvel says:
Lowery can tackle I’ll give that but cover….. I’m not sure..
I remember the playoff game against the Bungals ! Palmer had the team at the 12 yardline (I think) and I’m tellin my cousin he’s gonna throw an out route for the TD to Coles & he asked me how I knew.. I said look who’s playing 10 yards off him .. LOWERY.(I’m almost posative that’s how it went down)with that being said I would still rather have a DE who was a savage and could get 7 – 11 sacks without the “exotic blitz packages” ..
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I like Hardy from what I have read and seen on youtube but being listed at 6’4″ 281lbs isn’t going to help him play OLB in our scheme…
I could see him as the sucessor to ellis someday though..
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CHARLIE D says:
Guys I COMPLETLY agree with SackDance99 we will not be able to get high production this year from a CB in round 1. Thats why I think we need to take the best DE pass rusher possible then follow with a WR in round 2 maybee take help in the secondary in later rounds. Go Jets what do you guys think?
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Jeff says:
I say draft a WILL/DE, OT, CB, WR, P
Thats my list pretty much for the draft and or free agency
Its not that Lito and Lowery gave up a lot of completions, they didn’t, its more about how many big plays they gave up/penalties they committed.
Also, is it weird that I read “revisiting” as Revis-iting or was that intended