Opinion: Quick LT Signing Rundown
With LT signed and my kitchen mostly painted, here’s some thoughts I had while applying Sherwin-Williams to the walls. Overall, I like the move, but I do think that it comes with cautions.
All About the Benjamins — This deal comes down to what they wanted to pay out this year for a veteran back. Jones was slated to receive $5.8 million from the Jets in 2010. Tomlinson’s two year deal was $5.2 million for two seasons with $500,000 for incentives. So basically half the price, without any costly bonuses, and likely an easy way to sever ties should Tomlinson really fall off the cliff in 2010.
Expectations on Contribution — LT’s agent, Tom Condon said that LT “wanted to go somewhere where he had a chance to have a significant role” but I wonder exactly what that means. Does that mean in the running backs meeting room? In the locker room? On the field? I’m all in favor of letting LaDainian run the ball if he can run it effectively, but I just don’t know how effective that he can be at this point and how that will translate to game day.
Apples to Apples — Like I just said, it’s hard to know how effective Jones would have been in 2010 after so many carries in 2009, but I would project — decoupled from his line — Thomas Jones would be a more effective runner than LT. In the NFL though, you have to factor in the line-play, and in the Jets case, it should be a significant upgrade over San Diego, while Jones will see a BIG decline. Tomlinson should see a bump in his YPC productivity, but I’d call the over/under on his average YPC on the season at 3.8.
Who Gets the Touches? — If his numbers are around 3.8 YPC, the Jets can’t afford to put LT into a major role for anything under 4.0 YPC. I don’t know how it will all work out, but I still see Shonn Greene as getting the lion’s share of the carries with maybe 17-20 carries a game, and then Leon and LaDainian splitting the other 15-17ish depending on for what the game plan requires. While Leon might not get a high number of carries, the team might try to work him into the passing game more than the other two, who are less effective than him in that spot.
Insurance, But Against What? — I can’t really put my finger on it, but signing a guy like LaDainian is an insurance plan, but it’s hard to say exactly for what. Veteran leadership. stability, an upgrade over Chauncey Washington, yes to all. But Tomlinson isn’t much of an insurance against injury to either of the other players. Of course whoever plays behind Leon and Shonn will be worse, you’d expect that, so I think what causes people pause is the pay that you get for the low productivity. Or maybe it’s barring the Jets from picking up another young runner in the draft.
The Jets will still need to address the spot in a year or two, but barring any unforeseen courting of Leon by another team, the opening day roster is set at the spot. Should Greene get injured, I do think that Leon – who showed it during his rookie season – could pick up the carries per game. The problem is we’ll just have to wait and see how he looks on the field recovering from that injury and whether or not a high workload could cause setbacks.
Another Spot Filled — Just like the signing of Brodney Pool, or the trade for Cromartie, this just adds depth to the roster, and frees up the Jets to approach the NFL Draft with one less need to fill.
55 Responses to Opinion: Quick LT Signing Rundown
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are-tee says:
Suppose Leon comes back to pre-injury form – I would think he’d be the #2 and the main third-down back. Do you really need to be paying $2 million to a 31-year older third-string RB?
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Brendan says:
If last year showed us anything about the Jets & their style of play, it’s that they definitely 100% unquestionably need 3 capable backs. They were going to pay that money out to someone regardless, with Leon coming back form a serious injury, so why does it matter? They just didn’t want to pay $6 million, which is understandable.
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Jenny says:
wow look at the hotties we got on the team now:
1. Dreamy Sanchez
2. Model Braylon
3. Dancing LT
4. Mr. Outgoing Bart Scott
5. Best 1 on 1 Darelle
6 . Baby face cutie Jim Leonhard! -
Andrew says:
I’d really like to see Washington featured more in the offense if he comes back healthy, but odds are someone will pluck him from the Jets if all it costs is a late second-rounder. So I see why they went hard after LT. And yeah, dude has been declining, but at the same time, as I’ve said before, I don’t think TJ was any great shakes; he just had a great line to run behind.
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Jenny’s comment just took away my man card because I was nodding my head as I read it. Sonuva.
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How about this on 3rd downs.
2 wide receivers: Cotchery & Edwards
1 Tight End: Keller
2 RB’s flanking Sanchez: Leon & Tomlinson. -
pizzapancakes says:
I think the LT move is good. I would not be surprised to see a decent year in NY. He had his down years in SD but it’s not like Sproles had any good runs behind that line, with what I’ve seen it seems like his home runs were from screens and swing passes. I’d say LT is going to see some sweet daylight behind our OL.
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jsa says:
Brendan, you say:
If last year showed us anything about the Jets & their style of play, it’s that they definitely 100% unquestionably need 3 capable backs.
I don’t think that’s quite true. The Jets never used a 3 back system last year. Greene was not getting on the field until Leon got hurt, and after that it was Greene and Jones.
At this point in their careers I think Jones is the better RB than Tomlinson. I would have rather re-signed TJ for what KC gave him. Tomlinson is a hall-of-famer, but last year he was awful. There’s just too much tread on his tires. I don’t think last year can be totally blamed on SD’s OL, Tomlinson did nothing as a receiver either I’d rather have a lesser name veteran player (say a Mike Bell or Justin Fargas) or use a draft pick on an RB at this point in their careers.
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jsa,
you basically proved my point for me. When Leon got Hurt, Greene stepped into the #2 role. When TJ got hurt, Greene stepped into the #1 role. If we had, say, just Leon & TJ and then someone like Chauncey Washington, what kind of shape are the Jets in last year? They probably don’t even go .500. They need 3 backs because they have a style of play where guys are going to get dinged and need to possibly sit a game or two. If you go into the season with 2 capable backs, you’re bound to have it come back and bite you in the end.
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droseatwork says:
I don’t know if anyone has talked about this. What kind of blocking schemes were the Chargers running?
LT is all about Vision, the zone system is meant to help runners decide where to run. TJ was notorious for not following blockers. If LT can follow those blockers there is no reason not to believe he can average above 4 YPC. -
Too many of you guys are comparing Jones to LT and as if they are identical-style backs.They are not.
One of Sanchez’s biggest issues last year was his diificulty checking down and going to a third or fourth option. Jones is not a pass catcher…LT will act as a much better safety valve.
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Evan says:
There is another factor. TJ and Greene are the same type of ground and pound runners. For opposing defenses, it is MUCH easier to scheme against TJ/Greene & LW than Greene & LW & LT. LT has great hands and is a serious threat out of the backfield. He will keep the defense from dropping an extra defender deep. This will allow Edwards to get more single coverage downfield – opening up the passing game. He is also a much better blocker than TJ.
And like you said, our line is legit, SD is not so comparing numbers other can # of carries (TJ vs LT) is pointless to me.
Just my 5 cents.
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Brendan,
I agree, with a 2 back system and a run based offense like the Jets have you definitely want three serviceable RBs (i.e. better than Chauncey Washington) in case someone gets hurt. But you need it the same way you need a good bakup QB, or a good backup OT who can hold his own.
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jsa,
I disagree. The Jets held Greene out last year because he was not yet comfortable with blocking schemes and was nicked up. If he was healthy and up to speed (as he will be this year) they would have used him. The players may not get a big workload, but that works in the Jets’ favor.
Schotty will find a way to get all these players touches, and to maximize the effectiveness of those touches. I don’t think it’ll be as clear cut as “Greene 1st & 2nd downs, Leon 3rd downs & 2nd and longs, LT to give Greene a breather” I think it will be sporadic and having 3 unique backs will greatly impact the offense.
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tomg says:
When I heard the rumors that the jets were going hard for LT my first reaction was “this guy is done, no “. Now that the jets signed him it will be a wait and see. I still think the jets should draft a running back in the late rounds or pick another back up in preseason that gets cut for insurance. The jets need three backs in case one gets injured. I’m not 100% sold on Greene. He appears injury prone and has shown fumbleitis problems.
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Marvel says:
Can someone give me a rundown on C.Washington’s game . I can’t find any decent YouTube vid’s(maybe I spelled his name wrong). Who is he life,what can he do, etc ..
I would still like a RB in the Draft but Tanny throws around “picks” like Delhome throws around…. “picks”
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bleed green 24 says:
Ronnie-
You couldn’t be more right.. That’s a scary thought for opposing defenses. In a shotgun set… Oh my
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Marvel,
Here’s one video of Washington:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRfO1IsXAtQ
He’s a big boy who runs hard. In case of emergency, it’d be interesting to see what he could do because he is like a little bowling ball out there with quick feet. He actually kind of reminds me of Shonn Greene just not as good.
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BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
I can see LT running the Wildcat too. He did have a few TD tosses, didn’t he?
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What color is the kitchen?
I hope LT has enough left in the tank to take advantage of the better OLine he now has.
Tangent: I wonder if we should read anything into him not going to Minny – like Favre won’t be back.
CRAP – I said I wouldn’t bring hisname up again until July…
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Brendan
thanks… So in you opinion can RB be put off for another draft ?
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Wolf says:
LT is stastically one if the best QB’s to ever take a snap.
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How cd we miss on the Wimbly trade?
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I would say yes. I mean, if there’s value in a later round, it wouldn’t hurt the Jets to pick up another one…but it’s not a pressing need. Washington, at least to me, seems like one of those RB’s who could come out of the woodwork and slap up a 100 yard game. Heck, behind this line I think I could do that. But I think with the amount of upgrades needed (pass rusher, safety, both lines, slot receiver) that the Jets can hold off on a RB, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they take a project RB late in the draft.
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We need an OLB to replace Bryan Thomas.
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Brendan — If you remember how Schotty used TJ and Greene late last year, it was different than the way many OCs utilize backs. He frequently liked to have them play entire series, presumably to develop chemistry and some consistency with the offense.
I imagine his plan for next year will be similar. -
I agree that they did that last year, but I think this year they’ll vary it a little bit more. Greene & Tj were so similar in style that it wouldn’t be effective to switch them multiple times per drive. But with a battering ram, a scat back and a versatile vet the Jets have pieces that could really mess with a defense’s focus and how they go about trying to stop the offense.
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RKNYC says:
A little mixed feelings about LT but at that price I don’t think anyone can complain.
As a calculated risk, that means signing a veteran, future HoFer, teacher, good person, good citizen, good teammate, good receiver, nose for the endzone, this is a very good move. -
Tom in Raleigh says:
This is a great move. Perhaps all of the TJ lovers saw something I did not. What I saw was a whole lot of him not following the blocks and falling forward for yardage. Once Greene came into the the game, we were explosive.
This is not LT in his prime, but he was running behind a piss poor run blocking line. Sproles is a good back and fared no better in SD.
Good addition, I think this team just got better…and our draft options keep getting wider. The Jets are quickly getting to the point where they can draft the best player available at just about any position.
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charleyjet says:
Your first point about Benjamins is misleading. Although TJ would have received 5.8 including roster bonus under his original deal he offered the Jets the opportunity to match the two year deal he got from KC. That deal is roughly the same that Tomlinson got. So the money is a wash.
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NamVetJet says:
So far I think that the FO has done a good job of replacing players that we had to let go (for whatever reason). I just get a sense that they know exactly what they want and need to do to get this team to the next level. I am looking towards the draft to see the next big moves by Mr. T.
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charley,
That still hasn’t been proven factual, everyone is just speculating on that point.
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WW85 says:
Thanks for the great breakdown, Bassett. I still dislike the move & would have preferred a draftee, but I dislike it less now.
Do you have any thoughts on LT’s pass catching ability & how much that factored into the Jets courtship? Could you see a larger role for LT as a screen receiver vs his past days?
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brian311 says:
i think its clear the jets didnt want TJ and decided to move in a new direction. whether LT is the right decision or not remains to be seen (i personally think its a bad signing). but if the jets wanted TJ, he would still be in green & white
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Andy says:
“While Leon might not get a high number of carries, the team might try to work him into the passing game more than the other two, who are less effective than him in that spot.”
Leon more effective in the passing game than LT? Do a little research.
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I think that REX et al have much more info about TJ v LT. They know who has gas left in their tank. I will not undermine thier opinions. I strongly believe in them and LT too.
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guys don’t forget we still have the star rb from the cfl and he is also 1 of the best special teams players out there……so we are stacked at rb
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Harvlis says:
Tom,
I guess you saw TJ fall forwards to lead the AFC in 2008. In 2009, he fell forwards to help our team lead all of the NFL in rushing. No one falls forward for 1400 yards and 14 TD’s. TJ lost one fumble, in three years for us, rushing over 900 times for over 3800 yards. I can see, you really know your running backs.
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Harvlis,
I think what Tom was trying to say is that TJ doesn’t make his own yards. He’s a product of a system, blocking scheme and stellar O-line. When those things aren’t lined up he’s an average back.
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Mixed feelings about the move, but I’ve basically had mixed feelings about every move the team has made this offseason. I can see the potential value of LT as his skill set is so different than TJs, but replacing one over 30 RB with potentially not much left in the tank with another who almost certainly has not much left in the tank leaves me anxious. Would’ve preferred a younger RB in this RB heavy draft, which I still think could happen if the team trades Leon or someone offers him a contract and we don’t match.
The big problem as I see it is that no matter how you slice it, we have question marks at RB. Whether Greene (injuries), Leon (wicked injury) and LT (age, productivity) or Greene, LT and a drafted rookie (never know how they perform at the next level), in our run happy offense we don’t know what our runners will be like or if they can stay on the field. For all the talk of “anyone can run behind this Oline” – I don’t buy it. TJ couldn’t at the end of the year and before anyone tries to use that as proof that he was done (and of course he was injured), how much better will LT do if we need him to step up because of say Greene is being nagged by injuries and Leon is not what he was or even close? I do think this is an awesome Oline, but I think that whoever is running behind it has to have enough left in the tank to take advantage. TJ clearly didn’t at the end of last year (injured and overworked), does LT? Seems like a rookie in the 2nd round (if we get a 2 for Leon) might be a safer bet. I love Leon, but man, that was a nasty break.
So we saved a little money (though how much is unclear because many reports were that we could’ve matched TJ’s offer from KC – his 2nd year isn’t guaranteed either, is it?) and got a big name who might help sell PSLs. With LT’s skill set he could really help us if he has enough juice left AND the other 2 RBs can stay on the field. I will get behind this just as I did with Favre, but just like that with move, am not thrilled with it.
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ramble914 says:
Theres a couple of points I need to make:
There is a good chance that Leon will not be 100% until the middle of the season, therefore making the LT signing a necessity.
TJ and Shonn play the same style, they are bulldozers! The big difference is Shonn is young and healthy. Why have two RB’s who play the same way?
At about the time LT should be wearing down, Nov.- Dec. Leon will be coming around from his injury, and should be able to take it into the playoffs. I’m sure this is the reason why only the first year is guaranteed.
LT is insurance in case Leon doesn’t come back as quickly as anticipated. Even if he is on schedule, the Jets can still bring him along slowly, and not have to give him too much too soon. LT gives them that flexibility.
Ok, I feel better now.
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NJets says:
When we draft another RB, everyone’s concerns should immediatly disappear. We got a HALL OF FAMER to be a backup. People are getting picky about the money? Since when is it a bad thing that our team is spending money to get depth in an uncapped year? LT was and will always be known as a better RB than Thomas Jones.
Is anyone else proud that players finally want to come play for us? That a hall of famer chose us because he thinks we have the best shot at winning. That we have a new stadium, a new culture, and a new outlook on the way NYJets football should be played. Thomas Jones is finished and I look forward to proving it with his stats this year behind a mediocre o-line.
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GreenDuck says:
Bassett
i totally disagree with your output
all these signings will add depth to the team? are you kidding me?
Pool for Rodhes?
LT for Jones?
Cromartie out of trouble?the only thing the Jets did was to replace a running horse with a dead horse combined with another crazy horse and an unwanted horse. what a ranch…
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Ramble, good points except that you seem sure that leon will come back at some point in the season and be at least 80% and that LT won’t wear down until Nov-Dec. I hope you’re right, I’m just not so sure that both or either of these predictions will come to pass.
Agree about the different skill sets between TJ & LT, just need LT to be effective enough in a limited role for that to work well. I hope he can be. -
Brendan,
An average back doesn’t lose one fumble in over nine hundred NFL carries. I suppose the O-Line helped him hold the ball.
No matter what team you are talking about, it takes a whole team effort, for any individual to perform well. TJ has been as solid as it gets, for the past three years. He is gone now. How any Jet fan can ridicule him, after we just rode him into the Championship game is moronic. Sorry.
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Harvlis
he didn’t have to hold the ball for long .. I mean it only takes about half a second to run into you OLs backs ..
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Nick says:
Our next move should be to sign LC. That way we enter the draft able to take the best avaialble defensive lineman.
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nick
i would give javon walker a shot before i give coles….he will go to the highest bidder.
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SackDance99 says:
No matter who the RBs are, I do not expect the Jets to run as much in ’10 as ’09. It stands to reason that Sanchez with a full training camp and a set group of receivers (Braylon, Jericho and Keller) will improve his timing and the pass will be used more. Towards that end, LT does give the Jets more versatility in the passing game because he’s a great blocker and receiver. I see LT as double insurance, he’s there if Greene or Leon are injured. Plus, he can spell either of them. Also, after seeing his RBs break down last season by playoff time, Rex has to know that RB depth is crucial and keeping Greene and Leon fresh for a playoff run is critical for the Jets success. I think that LT can have a nice complementary role that TJ could not fill. Also, it allows the Jets certain flexibility in the draft (but, I’m still hoping for an RB/FB combo to spell T-Rich and take over for him in 2011).
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Marvel,
It’s the NFL. If all the other running backs in the league were running by the OLB’s, maybe they would have led the league in rushing.
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PickNY says:
I am so tired of hearing about stats and savings between the two RBs. It’s not about the ducketts and yards gain between the two. They are two different backs, period! So it’s time to move on and embrace the change in the backfield
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rusty sanchez says:
everybody trying to compare tohis to emmit and edgerrin but both those guys went to inferior lines when they left….LT coming to a better line so hopefully it will workout
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SuffernJetsFan says:
Clearly Thomas Jones was a great locker room guy and a beloved teamate however the signing of LT is a homerun for the Jets. First off, one of the things not mentioned is that LT is a premiere blocking tailback in the NFL. This is going to be a tremendous upgrade to TJ especially on third down situations. Another point is when comparing TJ’s numbers vs LT’s last year the prowess of the Jets O-Line is so much superior then the Chargers. LT will be put into running downs when the opposing D is in nickel packages giving him the opportunity to flourish. LT’s plays with a fierce intensity and is all about the team. Both backs are strong runners but TJ was not an automatic on goal line running plays whereas LT has that inate ability to score running or catching in the same situations. LT has the swagger and is the perfect back for Shonn Greene to learn from. As a Jets fan I cannot be more thrilled to have LT wearing the Green & White!
I hope all the doubters fess up when LT thrives as a Jet. Remember all the “experts” ala Mel Kiper who dogged the Jets for trading up to draft Revis because as they said “its way too early to draft a CB in the 1st round”
Note that it was reported that LDT gets less than $3m in year one. I doubt any of the year two money is guaranteed, so they probably did get him cheaper than what TJ would have cost, unless he’s back next year too (which will only happen if the move is a success).