Interview – ProFootballFocus (Part Three)
In part three of our exclusive interview with Neil from ProFootballFocus.com (the fast-growing statistical analysis site, which aims to evaluate player performance for every single player on every single play), I ask about some of the moves the Jets have made (or might make) this offseason and whether or not their analysis would indicate these to provide an upgrade.
For part one, where I asked about how the site operates and the data collection process, click here. For part two, where I asked them to go into more detail about some of the more controversial ratings for Jets players last season, click here.
Part three of this interview is after the jump.
Let’s finish by looking at some of the offseason moves from the perspective of your site’s analysis:
- LaDanian Tomlinson v Thomas Jones. Although Jones had far superior stats, their rankings are pretty similar. Could that be because the Chargers’ offensive line was less effective? How much of a downgrade is this likely to be? Are both players declining as fast as we’ve been led to believe?
Talking of players we’ve been slated for our ranking of, Tomlinson is a great example. Last year (2008) we got beaten up for our view on the guy but we just didn’t see the same player from 2007. Personally I think he’s not right for you guys because I think his ego is too big and he’s really struggled with the whole “soft” jibes and the being “just another player” deal. All that as it may be I don’t see it as a downgrade. Thomas Jones was cut at exactly the right time and I just hope Tomlinson accepts his position and that he doesn’t pull too many snaps away from Greene.
- Kerry Rhodes v Brodney Pool. Like Rhodes, Pool grades out well on your site, despite playing for a team that struggled. Can he fill the void?
I’m not sure. I think Rhodes will be a big upgrade in the desert and if he wasn’t up to his usual high standard last year, he was at the very least, extremely solid. Pool on the other hand played as well as we’ve ever seen him and was good but not great in a poor year for safeties. If that continues (after seeing how he comes back from injury) you at least have a shot but I much prefer Rhodes.
(Edited to add: We discussed this in more detail when I went to visit them. Ironically, the guys felt Rhodes was overrated before 2009 and they definitely believe the reason for his benching/being traded away must have been more to do with attitude that what happened on the field. Their take is that Rex would rather have a guy that was a slight downgrade if it was one of “his guys”)
- Lito Sheppard/Donald Strickland v Antonio Cromartie. None of these players performed well last year, according to your site, although the hope amongst Jets fans is that Cromartie’s struggles were scheme-based. Is he likely to produce an upgrade?
Firstly the bad news: I’m not sure how anything Cromartie did (or more likely failed to do) was “scheme based”. The idea that the Chargers changed their schemes and this had an impact on him just sounds like an excuse to me. I’m sure, as a rationale, it will go down well because it all sounds plausible but if that’s the case how come he gave up so many YAC in 2008? If he’s keeping everything in front of him and being passive surely the passes completed into his coverage will be high and his YAC low. The simple fact is he was awful.
Now the good news: He wasn’t all that bad in 2009; he made a marked improvement over 2008 and along with Jammer was hampered by a chronic lack of pass rush. He was certainly better than Lito Sheppard was the year before the Jets traded for him. As much as I was surprised by Sheppard’s performance last year, I actually thought he did pretty well in coverage. He’s hardly going to knock a HB out in run support but with your front 7 that’s not high on the agenda anyway. Word is that he’s now been released and I can only assume he had some money coming because he really was fine. If Cromartie can make a similar improvement to that of Sheppard he’ll be a decent addition.
- Finally, the Jets have been linked with a move for Adalius Thomas of New England, another guy who seems to be declining. What do the numbers tell you about whether this would be a smart signing?
To do what and play where? LB is one of the many strengths of your team. Sure you could do with getting to the QB more often but is he really going to want to play as a third down rusher? It’s not even as if he’s Cameron Wake in that regard. As a starter he would be a downgrade on everyone you currently have. If he’s not good enough for the Patriots lackluster defense I can’t see him being much help to you guys. Famous last words, eh?
Once again, our thanks go out to Neil and the guys from PFF for granting us this interview. You can follow or contact them on twitter (@profootbalfocus …and no, that isn’t a spelling error – apparently twitter addresses are limited to 15 characters). If you have any suggestions or questions, please mention these in the comments, as I will be following up with them in due course and they have said they are keen to take suggestions on board to improve the ratings system and resolve any discrepancies with a view to becoming as accurate as possible.
22 Responses to Interview – ProFootballFocus (Part Three)
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Dylan says:
It seems to me like these guys rely on stats too much. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Lito struggled a ton against the pass. He did NOT do a good job last year. He was benched in the AFC Championship game for a reason. Lito also never had to cover the #1 receiver, and he always had safety help.
Another thing that I don’t think the PFF guys are taking into consideration is comfort within a certain system. It isn’t just speculation that the Chargers played more zone coverage than they did in 2007. Its a fact. It is also a fact that Cromartie had much more success in 2007. I don’t really see how that is just an “excuse” for his bad play. Cromartie obviously struggles in zone coverage. Some guys just aren’t good with it. Even Revis said after the Chargers game that he wasn’t comfortable playing so much zone. Covering a spot on the field is very different than playing man to man.
Another thing that I don’t know if they are considering, is that the Chargers had problem rushing the passer last year. I think the decline of Merriman really hurt the secondary. The Jets try and get pressure on the QB on every single play, meaning Cromartie won’t have to stay on his man as long. He should also get a lot more opportunies to pick the ball off, since the Jets put a lot of pressure on the QB and force a lot of bad passes. I think finding another pass rusher will help Cromartie succeed a lot though.
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BigKatt wants a ring says:
^^^i’m with Dylan^^^
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nyckage says:
Damn, these guys are alot more accurate than Madden ratings
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cmart28 says:
Again, as I’ve said in the comments of the two other posts, these guys ignore schemes. The reason Cro’s YAC went up in 2008 is because he played more zone, so more passes were being completed underneath him. Which is, again, why while the stats on that site are great, the ratings are far from it.
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Le' Sean Roberts says:
Ok, sure with zone you’re on your heals. I’m not sure what the CB’s assignment will be (he should), depending on what the offense deploys. You are on your heels hoping to make the best decision and don’t get figured out by the WRs and QBs to adjust the routes. Now with man coverage, it should be second second nature to the typical cover corner. That suites or two CBs now. Its about convergent to the expect performance. I’m not surprised about the pass defense really, well except for that bum and his alleged pre week 11 scenario. How much does that throw of the legitimacy of the analysis? Teams generally couldn’t run on us, so they’re gonna have to start shelling. That should terrify a mediocre to sub par defense. It would just be cataclysmic if this were the rubric for determining a free agents extension or new contract; work stoppage like every other year, the NFL will be bankrupt, lol.
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What are the variables for determining a players contract ?We have comparison with a marquee player (may cause inflation or recession); the marquee player may be overrated or a fluke, etc. Does something like quarterback pressures play a part in determination? Maybe tackles for loss, I know sacks, not sure about passes defended. I know interceptions, longevity, age, consistency, etc.
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Bent says:
Dylan – they do take into account the pass rush in San Diego, he mentioned that in his comments.
Cmart – I think they maybe do take into account scheme, perhaps more than just a generalization like “the Chargers played more zone” and “Harris is only supposed to play in space”. Those are both absolutely true, but how do you know that those plays where Harris was the one to take on the blocker (and this did happen quite a lot) weren’t the ones where he scored negatively? Maybe that aspect of his rating (not being his primary role) could be weighted differently (and that’s something they are looking into doing).
Similarly, his comment about Cromartie having a high yac suggests he was beaten for bigger yardage rather than having a guy make a catch underneath him where he can make the tackle immediately, and his suggestion that they did run deep with the guys they were covering again makes sense if some of the struggles he had were in man and there was no apparent correlation to the change in scheme other than perhaps him being confused overall or demotivated.
I think you’re quick to dismiss this when all he’s given you is a general answer. If you wanted a breakdown of how a guy performed in a particular role, which would take into account the scheme/formation etc, they could provide this. Maybe we could learn more about where guys strengths and weaknesses lie, especially as they grow the site, which they’re in the process of doing.
I will ask them if/how their system takes into account schemes when I follow up with them, but having met the guys, they had a strong idea about tendancies of teams and I bet they are trying to factor those sorts of things in.
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The one sure thing is, Cromartie now has no excuses. He’s in a defensive scheme that’s not offensive. If he F@#$%s up………oh boy!
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I mean in a defensive scheme that’s offensive.
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Bent says:
Dylan – to add: comfort within a particular scheme could definitely be a reason for struggles (and hopefully an indication that Cromartie in particular will play well) as can off field issues causing a distraction, but I don’t think they should build these things into the rankings (or could hope to) but their interpretation thereof.
Lito’s numbers really fell off on that site at the end of the year when he struggled, which seems realistic enough. I wasn’t that happy with him throughout the year, but it’s no surprise his rating is good. Remember those “burn percentage numbers” that had him in the top 6 with Lowery? They came from another site.
I agree that stats are often relied on too much. He’s not the only guy to do this (and remember that in part one they said their main goal is the provision of the information, not analysis thereof). I’ve always doubted sites like these, but nearly always find they back up what I thought and there is always a reason when they don’t (which may be something I haven’t considered and which led me to over or underrate a player).
I tend to defer to these guys because they’ve seen every snap of every game and I haven’t!
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mike says:
they should do a video tutorial breaking down a player on a few specific play, because it seems like we really still have nothing more than a vague idea of what they’re doing.
can a cb lose points only if his assigned player/zone gets yac, and then is tackled? what if he tackles someone else’s responsibility?
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I remember Patrick Willis’ rookie season making all those tackles. The defense sucked and he wasn’t making tackles at the line of scrimmage, but chasing down the ball carrier and receiver. Harris had 127 tackles in eights games (the sickest run I’ve ever witnessed). Harris was making tackles in front of him, after shedding trash. I 2007 He’s at #35, but Harris is #2. What about a DB making a crazy amount of tackles when the pass defense is horrible. In Madden 97 that was the case. The DBs would rap up like 15 tackles, and be the most productive players. The linebacker were non-existent.
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Bent says:
That’s an absolutely great idea. That’s how they decide how to grade plays, by going over plays in detail and assigning a score to all the potential outcomes.
In the instance you suggested, the guy who got beat would probably get a negative grade and they guy who made the tackle would get credit, but only if it wasn’t a routine tackle (maybe he covered a lot of ground or shed a block).
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I mean Patrick Willis was at #2 while Harris was at #35. What’s up with that ?
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Bent,
Yeah I like the site, but there are some factors that just aren’t possible for them to consider. I think its very useful for certain information, however I still think that everyone also needs to make their own judgement for every player.
The thing that I like most about it is that it shows each players strength and flaws. The website is not going to convince me that David Bowens is better than David Harris. However I do think its interesting that Harris struggled against the rush, but was one of the better pass rushers at ILB.
Remember also that these rankings are based on how well a player does his job. Thats means that a good player with a tougher assignment might rank lower than an average player with a very easy assignment. Thats why Pouha was rated higher than many of the great tackles in the NFL.
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Bent says:
I think even they would agree with you that you need to make your own judgement, Dylan. I agree with pretty much everything you said there. They wouldn’t say Bowens is better than Harris either…remember how he said Pouha is not any kind of upgrade over Jenkins (despite a lower grade) in part two, so it doesn’t seem like they blindly take the numbers on board (which I asked them to comment on in part one).
Le’Sean – The Jets sucked against the run in 2007 and Harris was paired with Barton, so I expect most everybody ended up with poor grades since there were so many negative plays. The 2007 numbers are, as I understand it, incomplete and were done while the system was early in its development, so you can’t read too much into them.
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You also have to consider these guys go back and do this study retrospectively. How many things that are ‘impossible to consider’ would be if you could watch a given play multiple times looking closely and replaying? You could certainly diagnose zone vs man coverage if you knew what to look for, also probably intended holes by how the blockers deploy post-snap
As for Harris – from watching him myself i think of him as a solid/good LB, Usually in the right place, but often a half-step late, and isn’t aggressive in cleaning up plays.
Now maybe he’s not supposed to be, and is designed to be more of a sweeping safety net behind the up front destruction, but that wouldn’t show up in the grading either – you can’t grade for the idea that he might be supposed to be more passive. All you can do is point out that’s how he is
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Bent- Good job on the interview I have been really busy the past few days and havent had time to keep up with TJB. But I just read all three parts and find it very interesting.
I love football but I could not do what these guys do. Their eyeballs must bleed during the season watching all that film.
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I’m surprised Sheppard graded as well as he did in coverage, but I thought that teams really went after Revis this year rather than targeting Lowery and Sheppard. Last year teams had great success going after Lowery and the Jets third corner (Law/Poteat) but this year they really seemed to just target Revis. I guess a big part of that is because the Jets played a very “number 1 WR” heavy schedule compared to 2008. I felt like when we did play teams that had a second option and were willing to use it Lowery and Lito were a terrible liability out there. I think if teams had gameplanned to just avoid Revis corners 2 and 3 on the Jets would have likely rated very poorly.
As for their overall grading I really like it because it is not overly complicated and I think its very well suited to individual play. Obviously the site it will draw the most comparisons to is Football Outsiders. I think PFF is a better indicator of individual talent and that FO has just gone overboard with some of the rankings they do. I think if the guys at PFF actually have the team together and funds to keep it up they will actually get far more mainstream press and acceptance than FO, because it just does a better job of explaining the play in terms most fans understand.
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Bent says:
To an extent, I think two other things factored into Revis being thrown at.
1. On passing downs, the overload blitz often came from the other side, flushing the QB towards Revis and making it harder to throw at Lito’s (or whoever’s) man. I’d say this was the case early in the season.
2. Rhodes often started on Revis’ side and ranged across the field away from Revis, perhaps in an effort to bait them into a pass in that direction. I’d say this was the case in the second half of the season, until they went to a more varied scheme over the last few games.
I only did film study on about five or six games though, so I’d be interested to know if these 2 things were factors and if there was any kind of pattern.
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WOJF says:
Cromaties strengths are his size, speed and ability to cover one on one. He has never been known as a “disciplined” player or strong tackler, which are the keys in zone. Otis Smith made a career, being in the right spot, keeping the reciever in front of him and closing quick to make a sure tackle. Mediocre corners can excel in the right zone scheme. Drove me freaking crazy, but he was handling his assignment perfectly, I never got mad at him but rather the coaches. I am sure he graded well.
Logically, Cro’s rating would decrease in zone coverage where he is just another player, especially in yac. He is more of an instinctual risk taker that better fits man to man coverage, that is not a theory, it is a fact.
Not making excuses, I was against the Shephard move last year and never bought into the theory he would rebound here, but I truly believe Cromartie WAS distracted by all the off field stuff and WAS truly frustrated by the scheme and has every right to improve if not regain pro-bowl form.
This was a good move.
I agree with the last part. I have zero interest in Adalius Thomas.