Link: The Perils of Second Round QBs
As a second round draft pick, Kellen Clemens has not been able to live up to the hype that he garnered when he came into the league … why?
Guest blogger Luis Deloureiro writes an thought provoking article on second round QBs from the last ten years, and examines why they face a tough challenge at sticking around in the NFL.
[The Fifth Down - Clausen and the Problem of Picking Second-Round Quarterbacks]
62 Responses to Link: The Perils of Second Round QBs
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The Ed(itor) says:
I don’t know if Jimmy Clausen will be as good as Drew Brees, but he will be a top flight QB in NFL and the Panters got a steal taking him in round #2.
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charleyjet says:
Browning Nagle
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I agree with Ed. Clausen looks to be good value and has all the tools to be a top tier QB. With a great running game to rely on I see him making the transition within the next few years.
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Bent says: I put little stock into what Ed says because he always talks up Notre Dame players, good or bad. I think he’s clearly just a Fighting Irish fan.
I think Clausen has better tools than Brady Quinn, but I’m not so sure about his mental make-up.
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I’ve actually been high on Clausen for a while. He played his entire season (except for the first game and part of the 2nd) with an injury to his throwing arm. He also had something like 6 come-from-behind wins. I don’t worry about his mental makeup at all, to be honest.
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SackDance99 says:
Jason,
I’ve said the same thing here many times (mostly in advocating that the Jets trade up and take a QB in the top of the draft). In NFL history, there are just very few 2nd round QBs that had superior NFL careers and most who did or are (Brees, Cunningham, Boomer), would be 1st round picks today or were the 1st QBs taken in the draft. That could change with the likes of Clausen, Henne and Kolb. FWIW, I don’t like the fact that Clausen didn’t win in college…there aren’t many upper echelon NFL QBs who weren’t from winning programs.
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I think the one thing that works for Clausen and worked against guys like Clemens and Beck is that the league seems to no longer be pushing the QB way up the draft board anymore. We saw Quinn take a drastic fall. Clausen this season took a big plunge. If just seems like teams are being more cautious than they have in the past.
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Al says:
Jason,
Interesting you should say that. A post by the same guest blogger…..
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/22/the-fear-of-the-quarterback-draft-bust/ -
Bent says:
Jason – that being so, we could start to see things trend in the opposite direction, no?
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If you looked at the Clausen situation, you’re starting to see more teams that either are a) all set at the position or b) drafted a QB recently and need to let the situation play out.
As Clausen started to fall, I kept looking at each team and saying they don’t need him because……they’re waiting on Matt Stafford or they have Tony Romo…..
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seanmac31 says:
This is what passes for thought provoking these days?
The list gets diluted by the fact that no one other than the teams that selected them thought Quincy Carter, Marquis Tuiososopo or Travaris Jackson (who the author forgot to mention) were second round picks. They were the equivalent of taking Darius Heyward-Bey in the top ten. Out of the rest of the group, we have a guy who wasn’t drafted to play quarterback, four busts, two young promising starters and the Super Bowl MVP, along with someone who we haven’t seen play a down yet. To the extent that the second round has been a wasteland, it’s been because of a few incredibly dubious picks, not some inherent problem with the round itself. Considering that Kevin Kolb and Chad Henne were both selected within the last four years, it doesn’t do much to advance the argument that you should skip on taking a quarterback in the second round and wait until the sixth just in case you hit the lottery with Tom Brady. Both players are going to be very good (and in Henne’s case, he’s could easily outperform Sanchez while costing his team $25 million less…which is why it can be a good idea to find your quarterback in the second round).
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He did miss Jackson – but it would have bolstered the point.
I don’t think anyone is saying that the round is inherently flawed. But, you are missing the point with Brees. The Chargers did not get value for the 2nd round pick they used on him.And, I think it was a hindsight analysis. Second round picks haven’t panned out. But, I don’t see the author suggesting anywhere that he knows what should be done….
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The Chargers got two years of top production out of Brees, then chose to let him go because they had previously misjudged what they had and signed Philip Rivers (who is no consolation prize, admittedly). It’s not like Brees was terrible in San Diego and then went to another team and blossomed. He was terrible at first, but the light came on while he was still on his rookie contract, so it’s really on San Diego that they didn’t get value for him.
I know the author isn’t suggesting anything but I’ll suggest something–don’t draft a quarterback who completes 55% of his passes or fewer. Voila–there goes Jackson, Carter and Tui. The percentages go up simply by assuming that someone who can’t complete his passes in college probably isn’t going to do it in the NFL, either.
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Sean. But, why were the Chargers so quick to give up on Brees. They drafted Rivers when Brees had only been in the league three years. There’s no way they would have given up that quickly on a first rounder – or anyone they had invested money in. Brees only had a little while to prove himself before they drafted Rivers…….he played well after they drafted Rivers, but they weren’t about to get rid of the first round pick and keep Brees
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AKA Jack says:
If Pat White wasn’t drafted to be a QB isn’t it about time he stopped playing QB?
seanmac-
I know you are enamored of Henne but not even your vaunted stat machine shows that he is head and shoulders above Sanchez at this point in their careers. Henne was a 4 year starter at Michigan and got to sit for a year and learn the game before getting his chance with the Fins. Sanchez went from a 1 year starter at USC to the starter with the Jets and has now started more games in the NFL than he did at USC. Stats don’t tell the whole story. Sanchez was in the AFC title game, Henne was golfing. Sure, they played on different teams. So did Ben who’s team was far and away the best of the 3 when he took over.
Henne may turn out to have a better career than Sanchez but the jury is far from in on that one and Kevin Kolb has thrown 130 passes for 900 yards in 3 years with 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. How you infer from that that he is going to be very good is a mystery.
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The Chargers coached the Senior Bowl that year, and by all accounts they simply fell head over heels in love with Rivers. Anyway, you’re right, no first round pick would get that kind of treatment. Part of the benefit of drafting a guy in the second round is that you aren’t so financially tied to him that you end up sinking your franchise for five years because you have no viable options. If a player isn’t working out, you can make a quicker determination to replace him, as the Chargers did, and as the Jets did with Kellen Clemens. Unfortunately, when your replacement is a top five draft choice, it means that you’ve voluntarily removed the flexibility you had by taking the second rounder in the first place. If the Chargers knew Brees would blow up, they would never have taken Rivers, but they locked themselves in with their drafting process. If Kellen Clemens had won the starting job and played well, it wouldn’t have made any difference; Sanchez would still be the starter next year.
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Ryan m says:
aja jack, well said, its obvious seanmac has a man crush on henne, a few weeks ago even went as far as saying most jets fans would take henne over sanchez. im one of many jets fans that find that rediculous. u keep ur stats seanmac, us jet fans will keep our quarterback
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Ryan,
Feel free to go back and check what I said, which was that Jets fans wouldn’t trade Sanchez for Henne and that Dolphins fans wouldn’t trade Henne for Sanchez.
If you go looking for outside opinions, whether professional:
http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/13621/scouts-inc-sanchez-or-henne
or fan-based:
http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=269791
opinions seems to run around 2:1 in favor of Henne over Sanchez. If you look at the hard numbers, there’s little question that Henne was far more effective last season, though that obviously doesn’t necessarily mean anything going forward.
Anyway, I like both players, so it’s not like I have a bone to pick. But Henne clearly represents a potentially better bang-for-the-buck when you look at how much his team is paying for his production.
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Eddie DiGio says:
I think that Henne and Sanchez are both going to be really good pros…
But there is one thing that Sanchez has that Henne never will…the athletic ability to buy more time in the pocket, to give himself that extra time. Henne is a sitting duck back there, dead to rights…you can be a sitting duck when you have Brady or Manning like football IQ, but I have not seen any of that from Chad Henne thus far…
Henne is mentally ahead of Sanchez at this point, he had 4 years at Michigan, he had a year to sit and watch Chad P in Miami…Henne would have been an epic failure if he was asked to do what Sanchez was at the same point in their careers
Right now Henne is the smarter, more efficient QB…Sanchez upside trumps Henne long term, Chez is just a better prospect
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>>But Henne clearly represents a potentially better bang-for-the-buck when you look at how much his team is paying for his production.
And potentially he won’t. Sanchez has already played in 3 playoff games in his rookie year and won two of them. That is bringing the team millions and making the franchise more valuable. If not for the playoff games there would be no Hard Knocks for example. Winning franchises make more money and that’s what QBs in the NFL get paid to do. I’ll let you tell me who the last Jets QB to win two playoff games in the same season was.
In two years, Henne hasn’t played in a single playoff game. In other words, he has earned his second round contract. If he starts to outplay it, he will have his contract reworked just like every other rookie who outplays his contract. See Revis, Darelle. The only way he actually IS worth more than his contract is if he does something he hasn’t yet, win. So far, Sanchez is in the lead in the only stat that matter, team wins.
The fins will likely come in third in the division this year behind the Pats and the Jets but at least Henne will have outplayed Edwards, a third round draft choice.
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Another thing to remember on Sanchez is that he took an astronomical leap when he took over at USC his Jr year…he struggled in a few starts his Soph year there, then dominated the next year…was like watching a different guy
People will point to the rookie blunders, but the kid has at least in his short history and habit of “getting it” and ascending to another level…
That being said, I think Chad Henne can become Boomer Esiason while Sanchez can become Drew Brees or Steve Young
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“>>But Henne clearly represents a potentially better bang-for-the-buck when you look at how much his team is paying for his production.”
Another thing to look at is, the way this year’s draft went, Sanchez is better than Bradford, who went #1 OVR to the Rams…barring injury the Jets got a potential #1 OVR draft choice in Sanchez by taking him a year early, and while he has his share of issues, no doubt, the Jets still exceeded everyone’s expectations with a bit of good fortune during the regular season, then gelling as a team to prove their meddle in the playoffs…
Unfortunately, the way the NFL draft system is, you have to pay for potential if you want the chance to have an elite, franchise QB
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Eddie,
I’m not sure why you think Sanchez the better prospect to Bradford. I know both Mike Lombardi and Greg Cosell compared the two players and thought Bradford was a far superior prospect. (The subject came up because everyone assumed Bradford would leave last year and Sanchez would stay.) Cosell is on record as saying that Sanchez is a system quarterback who shouldn’t have been drafted in the top ten because he doesn’t have the necessary arm strength to be more than a complementary player. If both Bradford and Sanchez were available in the same draft, Bradford would go first, and with greater consensus than Matthew Stafford had. I happen to disagree with Cosell’s analysis–I think that Sanchez has a number of skills that translate very well to the pro game and are arguably more important than arm strength, which can be developed to an extent anyway–but I would agree that Sanchez does not have the physical tool set you would expect from a quarterback taken #5 overall.
Jack,
Sanchez played in playoff games, and he played well, but he was the last reason why the Jets were in the playoffs to begin with. No matter which set of numbers you look at, Sanchez’s performance during the regular season puts him in some dismal company. He gets credit for making the playoffs the way Joe Flacco gets credit for making them last year, by virtue of lucking into playing with the #1 defense in the league. (And even so, Flacco was the more effective player.)
Quarterbacks are important, but it’s almost always specious to directly equate a quarterback’s play with team wins. Sanchez played at the same level as Matt Cassel and Matt Hasselbeck; the reason his team went 9-7 instead of 4-12 is because all the players around him played much, much better than the players around those other two. So in the sense of determining who the better player will be, Sanchez or Henne, team wins are not much of a measuring stick.
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seanmac31
Well number one, Bradford had an injury to his throwing shoulder and ran a wide open spread option in college, barely making reads and taking snaps under center. All while Sanchez ran a pro style offense at USC, reading defenses and going through progressions. Now Lombardi and Cosell are former NFL FO guys, but that doesn’t mean they are the gospel in terms of how a player will stack up. Lombardi got fired for being a crappy FO guy. I just think that Sanchez stays healthy senior year, and Bradford gets hurt, what those guys wrote a few years ago means nothing. At the time they wrote that Oklahoma was scoring 50 pts a game, reinventing offensive football and capable of leaping tall buildings in a single bound. Bradford got banged up the next year and was knocked for being too skinny and not tough enough to take the hits at the NFL level. And maybe part of the reason Bradford went number 1 to the Rams is because within the Rams organization they regretted passing up on a QB like Flacco, Ryan or Sanchez, Mortenson reported that himself during draft coverage. The Rams were open to trading that pick, while a team like the Lions were steadfast in securing a guy like Stafford. QBs will always go a little higher than maybe where they really warrant going
As for his arm strength, its completely overrated. Not to mention, Sanchez arm looked fine when he pumped faked Freeney in the air and threw the ball 50 yds on a dime to a streaking Braylon. In fact, Sanchez was so juiced up at times this season, we saw him put too much on throws that resulted in missed TDs or INTs. The game will slow down for him and the kid can make every throw, just like another guy who didnt warrant a top 5 selection or have elite arm strength, Drew Brees.
For all the Cosells and Lombardi’s, you can watch a Jowarski on NFL Matchup or Trent Dilfer tell you that Sanchez has all the tools to be an ELITE QB. Its a matter of who you ask, others like McShay, thought that Sanchez should have stayed in school and would have been a top 5 pick….
Its just my opinion, but I think your poo pooing Sanchez game a little bit while banking on a guy like Bradford who is not going to be able to simply catch the snap in the shotgun and flick it out on a bubble screen in the NFL like he did in college
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“Cosell is on record as saying that Sanchez is a system quarterback who shouldn’t have been drafted in the top ten because he doesn’t have the necessary arm strength to be more than a complementary player.”
You are talking about SYSTEM QBs, name a QB from Oklahoma under Bob Stoops that was more than a backup in the NFL….that Oklahoma “system” has not cranked out ANYTHING resembling a QB that is in the least bit prepared to transfer into the NFL…thats comical in itself
Carson Palmer and Matt Lienhart, I know, I know Matt Leinhart…are at least STARTING in the NFL as of right now, more than you can say for ANYONE coming out of Oklahoma and the chuck and duck
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seanmac-
You can’t change the argument to suit your needs. Of course QBs are overpaid, every single one of them. So what? The oldest story in the book is that QBs get too much credit when the team wins and too much blame when it looses. But that wasn’t your original argument.
If the QB is only as good as the team around him then Sanchez still did what he was asked to do. Be the QB of a team that goes deep into the playoffs. The Jets had the best running team in the NFL and thats a fact. The Dolphins were number 4 so it’s not like Henne had no support. Special teams were a toss up, Miami was one of the best at returns, the Jets got better field goal performance.
This could go on all day but in the end its pointless. If Steve Young had stayed with the Bucs or Favre with the Falcons they would likely be going to the HOF the same way you or I would, by buying a ticket. If Mo Lewis hadn’t taken out Bledsoe and we may never have heard of Tom Brady. If pigs could fly bacon would be a lot more expensive. So what?
Henne has been in the league two years and his team has performed average and while he was leading his team they finished out of the playoffs a year after winning the AFC East. Sanchez has been in the league 1 year and performed about the same save for the fact that his team got to the playoffs and went to the AFC Championship. Finishing 3rd in your division and out of the playoffs means a mediocre year for the teams coffers. Finishing deep in the playoffs means millions extra for your team that year and things like 4 prime time games the next and a spot on HBO.
Life isn’t fair and neither is football. QB stats are always dependent on the team, the offense you play in. Ask Dan Marino if he would have traded places with Ken O’Brien. Better yet, ask Peyton or Eli Manning if either of them would trade places with their dad. In the end, wins are the only measuring stick when determining contract value because this is a business and wins are what pays the bills.
This is a business and things beyond individual stats mean things. The Jets are by far the more marketable team and one of the most marketable teams in the NFL and that is a remarkable thing considering we are talking about the Jets. Sanchez has proven to be a very marketable product and that means money. Henne, has not. If we stick to your original argument about who is bringing more bang for their contract buck, Sanchez or Henne, the answer so far is simple, Sanchez.
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Sorry, little correction…
Greg Cosell is a Matt Berry, talent Mr Roto clone, not a former NFL personnel guy…
Ive coached and played more football than Greg Cosell has, but its cool if he thinks that, there is just nothing you can tell me to change my opinion
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seanmac,
I think your criticism of the afuthor is flawed. Yes, if Henne pans out and is better than Sanchez, then the Dolphins would save money. But, the chance of getting a franchise QB in the second round is no greater than waiting until the later rounds. So, then the issue is opportunity cost. If you take a second round QB that fails, you have passed on a player that could have helped your team. The Phins are a good example. In 2007, they took John Beck at 40, while David Harris went at 47. They just gave Dansby $22 million guaranteed to fill their gap in the middle. So, the Phins wasted money and a spot on Beck…the money they may “save” on Henne only means that they’ll recoup the money they wasted on Beck (or White for that matter). Further, you make it sound like taking a 2nd round QB doesn’t handcuff a franchise like taking a 1st round QB. I agree, but not in the short term under the same HC. We had this argument before, but I think that one of the reasons the Jets didn’t trade up to take Ryan in ’08 was because the same HC had traded up to take KC in the 2nd round in ’06. Few HCs want to admit a 2nd round mistake, too.
Also, I was critical of Sanchez’s arm strength coming out of college. As a pro, he has shown that his arm strength is much better than advertised. He can hit the deep out to the left with ease and throws as pretty a deep ball as you will ever see. He also can whistle balls into tight spaces. In fact, I think his good arm strength goes to his head a bit because his ball placement often shows that he thinks he can place a ball inside when he should lead the WR to the outside. Henne may be able to win the “Kyle Boller” test, but Sanchez has more than enough functional arm strength. Also, this probably won’t surprise you, but I think Sanchez will be the better pro because Sanchez has much better mobility and throws better on the run. Plus, he has better mechanics…he is just more technically proficient. Henne had a 1-year head start, I expect the gap to close this year. To me, it’s like comparing Roger Staubach to Mike
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*To me, it’s like comparing Roger Staubach to Mike Phipps.
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I agree Sack, Sanchez can prolong the play with his feet and make something out of nothing…big key on final drives of games
Seanmac
Sorry dude, last thing….I like your boy Henne as a pro QB more than Bradford. Dont get me wrong, I think Bradford can be good. But with that team in St Louis, and all the catching up he has to do with running a college offense his entire tenure at Oklahoma. Big Chad is equipped with all that knowledge already
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Plus, towards the end of the season, Sanchez was walking around like he had 10 inch trouser snake…some guys just have “it” and he does
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>>Plus, towards the end of the season, Sanchez was walking around like he had 10 inch trouser snake…
If that’s all it took I would be in Canton and a two time winner of the Kentucky Derby.
Don’t hate me because I’m beautiful.
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LOL….in the words of Dewey Cox you gotta “Walk Hard” sometimes
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Greg Cosell is the president of NFL Films, the creator of NFL Matchup, which is by far the best football program of any kind, and the guy who puts all the film together for both Matchup and Playbook. He’s probably the single best football writer in the country when it comes to analyzing game tape (he’s one of the only writers in the country with access to coaching tape). FO sends writers out to NFL Films to go over the tape with Cosell every year, and it’s tremendously informative. Matthew Berry is a clown. Lumping the two of them together just makes me think you haven’t had much exposure to Cosell. He’s really among the smartest and most astute football people out there in the media today.
Anyway, should you be interesting in hearing Cosell’s take on Sanchez, have a listen: http://search.espn.go.com/sam-bradford/new-orleans-saints/non-insider/4294803573-84
He starts talking about Sanchez at the 23 minute mark and goes on to talk about Bradford and Clausen shortly after that. I think it’s a very fair analysis, but draw your own conclusions.
Jack,
How has my argument changed? All I said was that wins were a lousy indicator of how a quarterback played. (And in any event, Sanchez went 8-7 as a starter last year while Henne went 7-6; their win total was basically identical, while Henne’s numbers were clearly better.) The other thing that I said was that Henne was providing more production for the price the Dolphins were paying for him. That’s entirely true. The Dolphins can spend more money on other players because they are paying their quarterback less than $1 million a year. The Jets are paying their quarterback top 5 money, which is going to make it much harder for them to afford to re-sign the other players on their roster who need re-signing. You can get away with paying your star cornerback a lot of money when your quarterback makes about the same amount of money as your punter. Sure, at some point the Dolphins will need to re-work Hene’s contract, but for the next 1-2 years, they are in position to make hay because they’ve created a competitive advantage with their salary cap structure.
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seanmac
Thought Steve Sabol was the president of NFL Films?
Sorry dude, didnt know all that, thought he was just a fantasy football guy. Still, it doesnt change my opinion…in 5 years if we are both still blogging here, the results will become more clear…right now the jury is still out…If Im wrong, Ill be sure to own up to it…my apologies to your boy Cosell
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Oh yea, Steve Sabol is the president of NFL Films, not Greg Cosell
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Sack,
Yes, but the combined cost of Beck and Henne together is still a fraction of what the Raiders paid Jamarcus Russell, for instance, or what the Lions are paying Matthew Stafford, and the Dolphins were able to transition off Beck as soon as they decided he didn’t have the necessary ability. So by using a strategy of addressing the quarterback spot in the second round, they were able to maintain flexibility in terms of their personnel evaluations AND their salary cap. Yes, they paid the opportunity cost of not drafting a linebacker who could have saved them the money of Dansby, but the likelihood of Dansby living up to his contract is higher than that of a college quarterback living up to his top 5 contract, so even considering the opportunity cost, the Dolphins plan is lower risk and not necessarily any lower reward. (I’ll take Henne over Matthew Stafford, without question.)
Anyway, I’m with you on Sanchez’s feet, which are absolutely tremendous; it’s the single thing I liked best about him as a prospect. I think his arm strength is fine, though there are throws that he can’t make that Henne can. I don’t have a problem with that, though. The way a quarterback plays always has a lot to do with the scheme that he’s placed in, and Sanchez has more than enough ability that he can be very successful if he’s utilized properly. I don’t think you necessarily need a quarterback who can play in any offense, or if there even is such a thing as a guy who can play in any offense. The quarterback is defined by the system, so calling someone a system quarterback doesn’t strike me as an insult in the slightest.
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Eddie,
You’re right, Sabol is the President. (And son of the founder, while Cosell is the nephew of Howard Cosell.) My mix-up. Cosell is the one who created NFL Matchup, however, and he’s the go-to guy at NFL Films for, well, film.
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seanmac-
I guess I tend to count all the games that the team played last year. That would mean Sanchez went 10 – 7 which is clearly better than 7-6. I’m not sure why you don’t want to count the playoffs since they are actually the entire point but I’m going to count them just the same. I would think as someone who lives and dies by stats this would be self-evident.
Sure, the Dolphins can spend more money on other players just as they did last year and the team won’t be as good. Does that prove your point or mine?
I firmly believe that Sanchez will be a better pro than Henne. I honestly don’t care if this upsets the immortal Greg Cosell or not. For many of the same reasons that Sack and Eddie listed above and the reason that the Jets wanted him as badly as they did, I think he is a special player. I know this is going to sound arrogant because I don’t have my own stat page but I think I’m a pretty good judge of talent too. Sanchez may have been drafted too early, maybe he was a late first round pick and maybe Henne was drafted too late, maybe he also was a late first rounder. But I think when their careers are over Sanchez will have had the better career and the Jets will have been prove right to trade up and take them where they did over other teams that wanted him and justified the money he earns. Like every NFL GM, if not Greg Cosell and you, I tend to think Henne will be what he is, a second round ok QB.
We’ll see how it goes.
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seanmac
Yea my bad, Cosell is the Sr Producer and he does a great job. Im not as knowledgeable in terms of media guys…
Players, coaches, schemes and systems are this football junkies drug of choice
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Jack,
I don’t count the wins because generally speaking, playoff performance is separated from regular season performance when you are discussing statistics.
Anyway, I have no problem with Sanchez as the quarterback–I like him as a player and I think he’ll do well. There are a lot of knowledgeable people who like Henne more, and that’s fine, too. We’ll see how it works out. But this all comes back to the argument about whether or not second round picks are a good investment or not. For a time, the second round picks were consistently flaming out, but in recent years Kevin Kolb and Chad Henne both went in the second and both look like they will be good players. I wasn’t a big Jimmy Clausen fan, but he certainly has a chance to be a good player as well. So I don’t think that drafting a quarterback in the second round is something to be avoided based on the history, and in the salary cap era, hitting on a second round guy can set you up and give you a competitive advantage.
Eddie,
You should have a look at some of Cosell’s note’s. If you like schemes, I suspect you’ll enjoy them.
Here’s an example: http://www.fantasyguru.com/StaffBlog/category/filmroom/page/4/
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I think if you look at Henne compared to other second year players you see a guy with a pretty good chance at success. I know its a flawed way to look at guys but if you put his QB rating number in context with every other “2nd year rookie” he pretty much falls right below the border of the high quality player. That said he would look to track in with the next level of starting QB(think Kenny O’Brien) which is not terrible. I started to do something using FO ratings (and the numbers pretty much went hand in hand so Id imagine the same result) but just didnt have the same amount of data to look at.
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Sean, I dont think the indictment is against drafting a 2nd round QB. I think its that you have to really think about where you push the QB up or down the board. The reason that the sample size of 2nd rounders is so tiny is because teams were pushing way too many guys into round 1, which is why most of those late first rounders seemed to flame out. The number of 2nd round picks has drastically increased in the last 5 years while the late first rounders has slightly decreased. I think teams are just simply now showing more caution and finding better value in round 2. A QB like Henne, who maybe would have been pushed into the first round a few years ago, now gets a year or more on the bench to learn the game. Had he been a first round pick he probably would have been thrown to the wolves and maybe fallen flat on his face.
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I think Henne would have been fine had he been taken by Baltimore at 18 instead of Flacco. I agree with you about the pushing up of players who might have second round grades into the first (JP Losman comes immediately to mind), but the recent trend has been for teams to move back and try to take a player between 18-70 or so, and they’ve been doing it for financial reasons. The trade ups for Quinn and Tebow and Jason Campbell and Flacco are all of a kind in that teams looked for the price point where they felt the money going to the quarterback was acceptable considering the risk of busting. Late first-round guys get paid more than second rounders, but I think you can look at those late first guys in particular as being part of a trend that extends into the second round and probably into the third as well, thus including Trent Edwards and now Colt McCoy. It’s very much a salary cap driven phenomenon.
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seanmac-
Yea, well I’m still waiting on you to answer how you came up with Kolb being a good player but that was hours ago and you never did get around to answering it so I’ll just assume that was hyperbole.
To the larger question, I still maintain that Sanchez has earned his salary where he was drafted and what he has produced given his experience and so has Henne. I frankly don’t care about “expert” or other chat room opinions, my opinion is at least as valuable as theirs even if my uncle wasn’t Howard (I never played the game and neither has my nephew) Cosell.
We’ll see how it plays out.
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WOJF says:
I am not so sure the success ratio is materially worse in the second round than the first round QB’s, especially when you consider the money savings.
The success ratio is certainly no worse than the overall ratio for second round picks at all positions, which logically should be lower than the first round.
Perhaps all teams should just pass in the second round altogethar since the success ratio is lower than the first round? Or just pick kickers (nugent anyone).
Bogus article, but all of the above discussion was very interesting so it obviously was thought provoking as advertised. Would like to seem more comparable stats rather than the authors subjective analysis.
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seanmac,
I still think that my speculation is better than yours. IMO, a 2nd round QB is, essentially, a waste of a pick, especially one that is not a top 2nd rounder. But, a second round OL or LB is much more likely to pan out. So, again, the opportunity cost is that you can have a David Harris perform well under his worth for his rookie contract, or you can take John Beck, a player that can’t even play special teams and is a waste of a roster spot. And, for every JaMarcus Russell, there’s a Peyton Manning. For every John Beck, there’s a Kellen Clemens. Failure in the second round at QB is far more likely than missing on a top 1st round QB.
Still disagree on Henne. I want to see him use that superior arm strength…he completed a large percentage of his passes to his backs and TEs and Bess, Camarillo and Hartline don’t exactly stretch a field. He may have a blunderbuss, not a rifle.
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Jack,
I must have missed where you were questioning it. I suppose I’m predisposed to view Kolb favorably–at the time of the 2007 draft, we graded him as being far and away a better prospect than either Jamarcus Russell or Brady Quinn due to his combination of starting 51 games and completing well over 60% of his passes in college. His play in limited time last year was certainly impressive–he put up a DVOA that was right in between Matt Ryan and Kyle Orton’s. Philadelphia certainly thought they’d seen enough to get rid of Donovan McNabb and lock up Kolb long-term, and they’re as well-run a front office as there is in the sport. Anyway, two games is certainly not a career (even when those games were in the playoffs), and Kolb and Sanchez will both be interesting to watch going forward.
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sack,
Yes, but drafting a Jamarcus Russell makes all of the David Harris’ in the world irrelevant–you’re still going to go 4-28 over the next two seasons and have absolutely no ability to do anything about it. Swinging and missing on a quarterback in the second round wastes a potential good pick. Swinging and missing on a quarterback at the top of the first wastes your entire draft.
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Did the Eagles lock Kolb up? I thought he was just signed thru 2011? The one thing that would worry me with Kolb is that there does seem to be a track record of guys who get a few years on the bench but still have the tag of “being young” come in and play really well, get a huge extension and then fall way back down to earth. Rodgers looks to have broken the streak, but just off the top of my head Chad, Garrard, and Bulger all got huge deals off levels of play in their first season that they never reached again,
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seanmac-
So you are willing to say that the money the Eagles paid him for the first 2 1/2 years, 37 games, where he had a passer rating of what, 20 combined don’t count? What about the money that could have been spent to get an actual player or 6 during that time?
How is it that you think the sunk costs of having a nothing who has played a grand total of 6 games in 3 years while tying up a roster spot and taking salary dollars is meaningless or for that matter meaningful? The only game he looked good in as a starter was against KC and they suck. It’s hard to take your analysis seriously when you say he was any good when he played decent against Carolina, got blown up by NO and played well against KC in his third year and you think he will be a good pro. Three years of playing in the system and this is it? I think I will go with my gut and my eyes over your DOVA and Greg Cosell.
So when are you going to tell me how Sanchez didn’t earn his salary by QB’ing his team to the AFC championship as a rookie and stealing salary dollars from other players?
Until then, I’m still going with the obvious, Sanchez 1, Henne 0.
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rusty sanchez says:
brett farve was a 2nd rounder picked 1 spot ahead of browning nagle wonder if we would of had more sucess if those 2 picks were reversed???
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i think ever since that touchdown pass to keller in the chargers playoff game is officially when the game slowed down for sanchez….between him keeping the play alive and throwing the ball between 2 defenders and only where keller can catch it on 3rd too says alot…hopefully im right cause from day one even though i was iffy on sanchez i was always convinced he was more happy to be a jet rather than the 5th pick overall
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Jack,
Get back to me in November on Kevin Kolb. Perhaps your eyes will tell you something different by then.
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seanmac-
One more thing, until you are ready to argue the sunk cost of taking a guy like Kolb who has contributed next to squat for 3 years and not address opportunity cost in you model, don’t bother. I do this crap every day and I don’t have the luxury of models with the extra special benefit of hindsight and DOVA offsets.
You take the best player available to you based on our needs with the resources you have and you go from there. You eat the bad decisions but they sometimes handcuff your progress. This idiocy of constantly pretending the NFL draft is all about some super secret model instead of the best analysis of humans is just that, idiocy. And your DOVA or whatever is no better.
I’m out.
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Jack,
What is the sunk cost of Kevin Kolb versus the sunk cost of the two first round quarterbacks who were taken in the same year?
Jamarcus Russell cost $3 million to play badly in four games his rookie season. That’s nearly as much as Kevin Kolb’s entire rookie contract was worth. Russell went on to cost an additional $37 million that the Raiders will never see again and that prevented them from bringing in anyone better than Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye despite the fact that Russell was an abject disaster.
Brady Quinn signed a $20 million rookie contract with Cleveland with $7 million guaranteed (two times Kolb’s entire rookie contract worth), and he also cost the Browns a first and second-round pick. For that, he played for a total of 14 games, was beyond awful, and recouped a 6th round draft choice from Denver.
Meanwhile, the Eagles drafted Kolb in the second round, paid him $2.5 million while they developed him for three seasons, and having done so, were able to avoid having to pay their 33-year-old quarterback the big contract extension he was looking for. They now have a young starter who they will lock up at below-market value and will get good production from immediately, rather than having to sit through 1-2 seasons of him playing below replacement-level football and watching their team have to take on additional big money rookie contracts that they earned by ending up back in the top five of the draft. As far as I can tell, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn’s squads proceeded to go 14-34 and 19-29 respectively during the time they were on the roster, while the Kevin Kolb’s team went 28-19-1, despite the awesome sunk cost of developing their second round quarterback instead of drafting, oh, I don’t know, Eric Weddle, who went with the next pick.
You’ll have to forgive me if I think the thought process of the best front office in football is a little more impressive than yours, despite your extensive coaching and playing experience.
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You’ll have to forgive me if I think the thought process of the best front office in football is a little more impressive than yours, despite your extensive coaching and playing experience.
Classic. What a dip. Tell me again what you and the Eagles have won genius? And you, who besides Basset gives a flying squat what you think? You’ll have to forgive me if I think you are just another dork with way too much time on your hands. No? Tell me why.
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Yea, that’s what I thought.
You have no idea what Kevin Kolb can do and the Eagles, a team that took Randall Cunningham and turned him into a human highlight film instead of a QB (he needed to go to Minnesota to learn that) but you in your infinite wisdom and the awesome power of your website is going to lecture me on how to pick a QB?
If it wasn’t for your arrogance you would have nothing so cling to it. You have a website. I’m sure your mom is proud.
But I will watch Kolb because you and your website said he would be great.
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What have the Eagles won? Lots and lots of games over the last decade. 103 of them.
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FWIW, Sanchez ranked number 34 for the year in actual cash paid to QB the team while Henne ranked 55th or so. The difference in salary was about 1.6 million dollars. Its not huge. Based on a per win ticket Sanchez earned about 120K more per victory. I dont think thats a huge amount more even if you want to say Henne was far better (which he was). Where Sanchez has to prove his worth is this year (hell make around 16 million in cash) and next year (14 million in cash) and he and the team will have to do much better than Miamis squad to say he is worth all that cash right now.
Of the other QBs in the division Brady earned 8 million, Pennington about 6, Fitzpatrick 3, and Edwards less than 500K. Id say both teams had the best two bargains for the season considering the Pats got bounced quick, Chad got hurt again, and the Bills stunk.
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NYJBeast89 says:
On an unrelated note, how does Revis want 20M a year? Haha Peyton makes 15, and he IS the team. I say 12-14 M, take it or leave it Mr. Manhattan, no one is giving this kid franchise QB money.
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Brady actually had a great year–he played a very difficult string of pass defenses and did so without much in the way of weaponry.
Nice job digging up the numbers, Jason. That’s a lot of cap space going to Sanchez in the next two years. A lot a lot. It’s too much to ask him to play like Peyton even if he’s getting paid like Peyton, but I’m hopeful that he’ll go through a quicker learning curve than, say, Eli did.
I don’t know how the Jets are going to sign everyone they need to sign…
I did something similar to that a few years ago, though I only published the pieces on first round players. Id say its a definite trend with the QB position. If you dig deeper you also find a few other stats. Basically all your good QBs come from the top 11 in the draft. Most of the guys outside of that range all bust. My gut feeling was it was due to the overhyping of the QB and players that belonged in the 2nd and 3rd rounds jumping up into the late 1st and 2nd round. Aaron Rodgers may prove to be the one exception, but Chad Pennington, who is a pretty average guy, was basically your best non top 11 first rounder for over a decade. My own conclusion was if you cant pick a guy in the top 10 its best to just take a flier on a guy late in the draft. Sixth round has produced some decent players.