FJM Style: KC Joyner on Revis
We really want to like KC Joyner, we really do, but his latest piece on ESPN Insider about why Darrelle Revis is expendable leaves us wondering again why we want to.
Let’s fire it up, FJM style.
One of the most surprising results Bill James found early in his research of professional baseball is the lack of impact individual players have on the success of their ballclubs.
It’s true!!! Having good baseball players on your team is no indication of success, just ask the Pirates! They are fantastic without any talent on their roster whatsoever!
James was so shocked, he eventually created more than a dozen different ways to analyze individual player impact on team performance.
Bill James: “Hmm … I better create buttressing arguments to my initial stupid conclusion … “
Every one of the studies came to the same conclusion: Most star players in their prime add an impact of no more than three wins a season. It takes a team effort to post wins and not even the best players can do much to change that.
Correct, team effort. I think we’re all aware that fielding one player against nine in baseball is a pretty sure-fire way to get yourself pwned, but to entirely discount how much effect one player can have on a team is ludicrous. I know it’s a terrible example, but think back to Barry Bonds when he was in prime juicehead mode. No one would pitch to him and when they did … lookout. It changed everything for the Giants, one player did greatly impact his team. That’s one cartoonish example, but there are others we can all recite out of hand that at least on the surface seem to disprove that having impact players basically has *no* positive impact. It might work statistically, but c’mon that’s just stupid.
The reason this message resonates is that there are two NFL stars — Darrelle Revis of the New York Jets and Vincent Jackson of the San Diego Chargers — whose recent OTA attendance status indicates they may believe they could be exceptions to this rule.
Yes, a one-day holdout means he thinks he is the exception to a metric that some Eggbert created regarding baseball. No. It means he was pissed that Tannenbaum lowballed him with an insulting offer last week.
If that is their mindset, the metrics certainly don’t back up the claim.
Right, “if.” Do you know something we don’t? We don’t know that’s his mindset, now based on what he told reporters yesterday, he does consider himself the best and wants to be paid the best … but KC is just assigning it to him blindly for the sake of making a point here. Revis has never said anything like that anyway. On a con call before camp during the summer of 2008, he didn’t even consider himself safe at his position as a starter. Dave Hutchinson of the Star-Ledger had to tell him he’d be the starter …to which everyone laughed.
Now as far as the metrics, I love Moneyball … I really do. I love Football Outsiders … I love that there are people looking at sports through a new statistical lens. I love looking at the numbers and coming to a better understanding of what happened, will happen, or are areas of concern in a matchup,
Where I see Joyner and his stats fall down, is he too often tries to take his stats, often based on his own subjective analysis based off DirecTV feeds (not coach’s tape, or with the benefit of knowing what the play design was) and places arbitrary value of his metrics over it. It’s pseudo-statistical … statistics are great when they’re founded in actual concrete fact … not in subjective calls like “QB bad decisions” in that case, we have polling data. I have the same problem with ProFootballFocus’s approach.
Let’s start with Revis. He is absolutely — beyond a shadow of a doubt — the best cornerback in the league, something backed up by his No. 1 ranking in the cornerback yards-per-attempt (YPA) numbers from the KC Joyner Metricmania section of ESPN’s Fantasy Football Magazine.
Oh good! KC Joyner’s Metricmania in an ESPN branded fantasy magazine (out on newsshelves now!!) tells us that yes, Darrelle is in fact a very good player. You know what else told me that? MY —-ING EYES. Hey look! I just saved myself $7.95 and a trip to Barnes & Noble!
With that being said, it should also be noted which cornerback ranked No. 2 in YPA — that was Revis’ teammate, Dwight Lowery. The Jets also placed a third cornerback, Lito Sheppard, in the top 20 in that category last year ….
So the Jets had three top twenty YPA ranked corners. Using Joyner’s own stat Revis’ YPA numbers are gaudy, and my cursory check of the internet showed that his 3.6 YPA is extremely low compared to the normal leading CB in any given year Joyner has compiled that stat.
… making them the only team in the league to reach that statistical distinction.
Alarm bells should be going off for Joyner at this point, but no. He procceds. Logically to me, this is Joyner crossing the street and not looking both ways.
That alone indicates just how much head coach Rex Ryan’s scheme helps cornerbacks, but Sheppard’s case is even more notable when looking at his coverage history prior to coming to New York. In the three years before joining Ryan’s defense, Sheppard posted YPA marks of 13.0 (2008), 8.1 (2007) and 8.2 (2006).
SPLAT.
Since Lowery and Sheppard split starts during the season, for sake of argument, let’s combine them into one player and say that combined they were in the low teens. Still pretty good for one set of corners, right? Sure!
But how can you discount the fact that locking down one side of the field for coverage and the cause and effect that has on how you run the rest of your defense? If Revis is alone, then the safety is rolling the other way, something we saw Ryan do again and again, and which caused Kerry Rhodes to get pissy during the season and led to him getting shipped off, he hated playing bait/safety net. So basically providing Cover-One help away from Revis much of the time, guess who’s numbers would get a bump?
OH RIGHT.
Now contrast that to his New York YPA mark of 6.0. He went from posting one of the worst YPA totals in the league to one of the best, yet the Jets sat him down in the playoffs and let him go after the season. That almost certainly means they realize it was the scheme more than his physical skills that accounted for Sheppard’s improvement.
Or it could be that they didn’t want to pay him a ridiculously overpriced bonus he had coming this offseason.
So if Ryan’s scheme is the sole reason for those high rankings … then … oh I don’t know … why did they draft a corner in the first round? Why did they trade for Antonio Cromartie? If they could go to war with just anybody, then why not sign Corey Ivy? Hank Poteat?
If that is the case, the Jets’ management also has to realize the type of impact this scheme could have on Antonio Cromartie. Cromartie posted a 7.4 YPA in San Diego last season, in what was widely acknowledged as an off year for him. Playing up to his talent level could shave a yard off of that total, and if the Jets’ scheme does its usual magic and cuts it down by 1 or 2 additional yards, Cromartie could end up with a YPA fairly close to Revis’ 3.6 mark.
… but the individual impact of a player like Revis or Cromartie doesn’t have any real difference anyway like you said right? Wait … why should we read this article then?
That means, in the worst-case scenario of a long-term Revis holdout, New York could place Lowery on the field opposite Cromartie and start first-round draft pick Kyle Wilson at the nickel cornerback position. That would still give the Jets one of the best secondaries in the league despite the absence of Revis Island.
WRONG! Of course they could do this, but it doesn’t mean the defense doesn’t skip a beat. Where Joyner gives all the credit to the scheme, I think it’s the scheme and Revis’s play that makes everyone else so effective. Revis is the high tide that floats all boats. Sure, Rex is helping matters, but it’s the two together that make Revis such a compelling player and that helps them across the whole secondary. Rex Ryan never had a corner of Revis’s caliber in Baltimore, and now that he’s had a taste for elite CB blood, he can’t be sated with anything less.
31 Responses to FJM Style: KC Joyner on Revis
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charleyjet says:
You have to wonder if this metrics guy has ever seen a football game.
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LilRobbieRyan says:
One problem with the hate spewed on the article is simply that he is not claiming the Jets are better off without Revis, but that Revis is not worth nearly as much as he thinks he is to the Jets. That is not readily disputable. I would take any of the top 5 QBs (who they are is a matter of debate I understand) or top 3 3-4 OLB pass rushers over Revis for the kind of money he wants (assumedly, about 17 million per year, heavily guaranteed). KC is spot on in pointing out that few if any players are truly irreplaceable to the point where a team should capitulate to unreasonable demands. Is he playing devil’s advocate? Yes. But just take a stroll over to Ian O’Connor’s article for a truly awful article from a “pay Revis” no matter the price” stance if you would like. I mean at least KC uses stats and some degree of logic and understanding of both the game and finances. But the truth lies in the middle anyways. The Jets need Revis for a Super Bowl. Revis needs the Jets (particularly Rex) if he wants continued Hall of Fame performances and to be on a winning team. But, really, how interesting is that angle for page views?
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JEFFDOLFINI says:
I totally agree LilRobbie. Revis and Ryan are a match made in heaven, but apparently only Rex actually acknowledges that.
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SackDance99 says:
I say this all the time, the 2 most important players for a successful 3-4 defense are the NT and WILL/weakside pass rusher. Ryan didn’t have the WILL so he found the way to pressure the QB by putting the other team’s best WR on Revis Island then trying to force the opposing QB to pass Revis’ way. The QB that went to the other side did so with players in his face.
Imagine if Rex had DeMarcus Ware? The blitz then becomes more effective with fewer players and you can double cover the other team’s top WR and achieve what you have with Revis Island. The important player in this kind of defense might be the slot CB. Remember how Parcells overpaid Mickens? It’s because he wanted to take away the QB’s safety valve in face of the blitz.
Joyner’s article might be over the top, but like LilRobbie said, if the Jets let Revis go and then used his money to lure a top WILL pass rusher, the Jets defense might not skip a beat.
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DanF says:
KC needs to realize that the NFL is not MLB! 3 extra wins may not make a difference in the 162 game schedule of the MLB, but even 1 extra win in the NFL can make all the difference. A single pick-6 or a single pass defended in the last 2 minutes of a game can put an extra tick in the wins column.
As for Revis, we need to pay the man, but he also needs to realize that Al Davis should have his franchise ownership revoked and his name erased from history for what he did.
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Shamik says:
What retarded logic – “LOOK! Those other crappy corners did so damn well on the Jets, they don’t Revis!” Why did the crappy corners do so well? Ans: Revis!
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Bent says: This would be like the Bulls getting rid of Michael Jordan because BJ Armstrong and John Paxson were good.
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Ranger Rob says:
I totally agree lilrobbieryan.
I have been keeping my mouth shut on this a while but this blog has become a bashing site. I am too lazy to type more, but ever since that article where a secret aourse (washingtons wife) claimed the jets lied. This site has been bashing management to just pay the players and of underhanded dealings.
It is getting old.
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tish says:
Efforts to quantify an individual player’s ability in football is an interesting, but invalid exercise. The coaches and scouts that spend hours and hours of time watching film of each player are fully able to identify the better players. Lowery is a nice DB, but to mention him in the same paragraph as Revis only demonstrates that this purported system was designed by someone that has no life.
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phil says:
lol dam Bassett i think you read this article in the wrong mind set…..the only thing KC disputes is that those 2 players are irreplaceable to THEIR teams……Revis on the Lions is irreplaceable because they had no corners last year…..the argument is that with Cromartie, Lowery and Wilson that Ryan’s scheme will allow the defense to compensate for not having Revis around, and there fore is not worth as much to the JETS as perhaps half or more of the teams in the league. The baseball comparison i think is to illustrate the baseball equivalent of war (wins above replacement) with replacement being ur backup and not a league avg player. I totally believe Revis should get paid, but i think it should something in the 11-13 mil neighborhood as Asomougha’s contract is an aberration to keep him from leaving Oakland, and not the true market for CB’s. Hopefully the Revis camp realizes this eventually and “settles” for $12 mil per with like $40 mil guaranteed
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Zartan says:
I kinda agree.Though Revis is a very great palyer, and i’d rather have him than not, If Wilson pans out and we can keep Croamartie at a good price….I,d trade Revis, try and get a good corner, and our secondary would still be good, with a hell of a lot more cap space.
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Browning's Nagle says:
Speaking as a life-long Jets fan… I’ve about had it with Revis’ crap, and most other Jets fans that I know and speak to have had it with him as well!
I say trade his ass to the Redskins, Raiders or whoever will pay his lofty pricetag… I could care less about that selfish f-bag! (1) CB is not going to define your defense… the defensive unit as a whole will.
The Jets, less Revis, will still have one of the best D units in the NFL… hands down!
Woody/ Tanny… keep the $15-20mm a year and spend it on Mangold/ Brick/ Harris/ Keller/ Braylon or Holmes/ etc… and show Revis the door!
Let him go pound sand and try to find someone to make the same mistake that the Raiders did with Ash!
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starz31 says:
Personally, I’d like to go to battle with the best CB in the league and one coming off a dominant season like we’ve never seen before. In a pass-happy league, you need a legit #1 CB to shut down top WRs. It takes so much pressure off the rest of the defense and gives the coach lots of freedom to mix and match. Look at Deion Sander’s impact. He shut down Irvin in the 94 NFC championship, 49ers go on to win it all. Dallas then goes and signs him, and he shuts down Jerry Rice in the 95 NFC championship, Dallas goes on to win it. I know there were a lot of great players involved elsewhere on those rosters, but having a dominant CB is a luxury like no other. There is no question we are a better team with Revis than without him.
Now the question of is he worth the big contract is valid, and I would rather sign him to a reasonable deal than what Aso has, who wouldn’t?
But you also have to spend money to keep talent. And I’d much rather pay the best CB in the NFL, entering his prime, in a awesome defensive scheme than having Cromartie be our #1 CB. This is a ridiculous article. Thats what Bassett is saying here, the guy is simply misusing stats to try and convince a random belief. He also has NO IDEA what Revis’ perspective really is, none of us does. But I don’t think he’s going to be holding out when everything’s all said and done. I’m just not worried about him missing VOLUNTARY JUNE workouts. -
I just can’t see why he is so angry. Really what he is saying here is that money is the most important thing to him. 2 years guaranteed for 20 million is not a bad deal. Bent and others had documented that this is the price for the top CB’s in the league. If he had 3 years at 5 million total then I would be all for it. Even with an injury he should be able to live comfortably with the money he will have made.
I was waiting for Revis to want to take less money to help his friends out. He mentions that the Jets need to pay everyone. What he doesn’t mention is that his tantrum is making it harder for the Jets to hash out things with the Mangold contract.
Who has really earned my respect is David Harris. Everyone talks about this being Revis or Scott’s Defense, but David Harris leads by example. He does so even with his contract, waiting patiently and saying his focus is on football and learning the defense. That says a lot about him as a man.
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Marvel says:
I could argue that Revis being on a specific team hurts the #2 & 3 CB’s .. Look at the Colts game when you have to choose between throwing at Revis or Lowery who would you choose .. Having Revis made the game easier for the Colts because all Peyton had to do was look at one side of the field .. But what happened when he played chicken with Cro a couple years ago, Cro burned him for 3 int’s .. Having Cro & Wilson would widen the field for Peyton thus making it a harder read ..
But we have Revis(3 years no matter how much he cries) , Cro , & Wilson now so .. Good luck ..
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Bent says:
Drose – I wonder if money is the most important thing or perhaps the status of being the top paid CB is more important.
Would a deal with dummy years at the end to boost the total amount or some hard to achieve incentives (Superbowl MVP for example) give him what he wanted?
After all, Aso has a 45m contract, but the last 17m is not guaranteed, so he may only get 28m of it.
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Drose… I couldn’t agree more with your comments on Harris!
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Nikolas says:
I think Bassett should have be an ESPN analyst. It is not a coincidence that his blog is so successful. It is getting harder and harder in this country to defend common sense, actually it has become an art.
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jon in bk says:
Bassett,
I kinda see what you’re saying, and appreciate the homage to FJM, but I have to say…you’re doing it wrong.
FJM picked on people with absolutely no grounding in reality and lambasted them. You’ve tried to do the same thing w/ someone grappling, quite sincerely imo, with a difficult topic.
From the top: James didn’t say that having good players did NOTHING, and neither did Joyner- he said it did much less than you would expect. While this is slightly counter-intuitive, your anecdotal example (which you even admit is imperfect) hardly disproves it- in fact it’s exactly what he’s saying. YOU would THINK it’s more impactful, but it really, statistically, isn’t THAT much.
Now ofc, where Joyner’s breakdown comes in is that baseball is not football. Stats don’t work the same way, teams don’t work the same way…
BUT, for you to patently state that Revis made the defense better w/o acknowledging that the D made him better, is really off base imo. I happen to think that Lowery, a below avg cb, having those #s is a pretty compelling stat, as football stats go.
It’s impossible to say how much had to do w/ Revis and how much w/ Rex (because in football they’re inseparable), but my gut tells me at least 50% is the system- it’s not like Revis was in a ton of cover zero, and Revis’s own stats did improve in the new system, markedly.
So, IMO, Joyner (who I know nothing about and don’t promise to support outside of this context), has a decent point, if a puzzling rationale at times. Revis, despite being ridiculously good, probably isn’t objectively “worth” as much as he thinks he is. I don’t think that claim is quite worthy of the FJM treatment.
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Bent says:
Jon – Bassett’s only really borrowing the format from FJM. I don’t think it would be wise for anyone to even attempt to be Ken Tremendous. Even Drew from KSK would probably admit he could never live up to the original (and FWPK is always entertaining, but when Drew is unavailable and gets relieved by one of the others, it drops another notch.)
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MrJetGreen says:
Revis is a great playr but a man who has made as much as he has, who’s going to make alot more shouldn’t be BADMOUTHING the Jets organization. FACT is he is under contract right now.
Knock it off or the Revis and Butthead jokes will return, LOL.
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I have a couple of things to say about Revis calling Woody Johnson cheap……….
1. Woody is the best owner we have ever had.
2. Woody isn’t cheap or dumb….not hardly.
3. Woody will be protecting the JHets franchise long after Revis is long gone. -
Bent says:
Mrjetgreen – did he badmouth them or call them cheap?
The only quotes I saw were of the “money is important and if I don’t get paid enough (which may still happen), then I’ll have to explore my options” variety.
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James in TN says:
The jets should just focus on getting Mangold, Harris and Brick signed. After those players are taken care of then you you offer Revis what is left of the pie. Here is to hoping its 8 mil per season. Turning down a raise from 1 mil to 10 mil has to be the craziest thing I have ever heard of. Aso signed for that much because it was Oakland offering not the Jets. We become Oakland if we pay him over 16 mil. Let him pout, he will come around.
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Bent- No I got that, I hope I didn’t come off as accusing him of plagiarism or anything.
But, still, isn’t the format/premise/etc. all dependent on one thing- that you’re going to take some fool and point out step by step why he is such?
Pretty sure that’s what Bassett was going for, if not my mistake. In either case this is a really trivial back and forth- bring on August, at least, so we can talk about SOMETHING!!
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viguy007 says:
Baseball and Football are two different games. Football is much more of a team sport, all the pieces have to work together to produce the results on every play. It is like the pieces of a clock, if one is not working the clock stops. In Baseball it is individual efforts which are combined together to produce the results. It is like a traffic system, if one road is closed, there are other roads that can take you to the same place. If one piece is not working, the system does not stop working, for the other independent pieces can take you to the same place. In football you have a combined result, in baseball you have an added result.
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Green Goblin says:
Revis is a great CB but he is in no way worth more than 12 million p/yr!!!!!!!!! If Tanny gives him a penny over that than he’s crazy….Revis is a great cornerback, not a great quarterback!!!!! The Jets hold all the cards so if Revis wants to be a cry baby let him sit out and start Lowery/Wilson in his place…I think it’s Jets fans and the media that helped inflate Revis’s ego…In reality, he’s only had one great season and he wasn’t even the Defensive Player of the Year!!!! Charles Woodson had at least as good a year as Revis, way better statistically!!! I love when Jets fans say that it’s not about the statistics and that if you watch Revis play he was the better player than Woodson last year..Meanwhile they never watched Woodson in one game last year so how could they judge his importance to his team….It’s like when Yankees fans would say Jeter doesn’t have the numbers that A-rod has but he’s better…Give me a break…How come they don’t mention the fact that Revis may have had his best season last year because Rex’s system is a CB first and a great CB like Revis will really excel in it…The guy is a great player, there’s no debate…But if Tanny gives him more 12 million p/yr than he’s insane!!! Tanny should just hold Revis to his contract if he doesn’t like the offer and then do what New England did to Asante Samuel and lock him up with the franchise tag in the future..If he wants to cry about how he HAS to be the highest paid CB in the NFL and wants a better contract than that ridiculous contract those morons in Oakland gave Nnamdi Asomugha then let him hold out and I say good riddance!!!! That’s why you have to respect Tom Brady….The guy could have been making WAY more than the contract he signed but he isn’t a greedy sob!!!! Revis seems to be the complete opposite…I heard even as a rookie he was a very hard contract negotiation!!!! Revis wants to be paid more than Brady!!!! Revis is a great CORNERBACK but Brady is an even better QUARTERBACK!!!!! Revis wants to be paid more than Peyton Manning!!!!! Even the biggest Revis fans can’t pretend that Revis is more important to his team than Manning is!!!!! I’m a Jets fan before a Revis fan….12 million p/yr is a lot of money…It’s a very fair deal…Why root for him to get more than what is fair (or more than he needs in 10 lifetimes) and ruin the Jets chances of signing other players…Why? Just so Revis can buy a private jet….If Revis stinks next year I guarantee he won’t return the money….Tanny holds all the cards here so he shouldn’t cave in….Tanny should offer a fair deal but not a cent more…
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Reprocity says:
We’ve been riping the Aso contract quite a bit. It’s a 3 year deal so the year after next the Avg of the top 5 CB’s will still be around 10mil meaning they could give Revis 12 Mil and he’ll be the highest paid CB in the NFL. They can also give him a long term contract with funny monney and back load it. Like a 7 year deal that’s really a 5… Any takers?
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Eddie DiGio says:
Green Goblin
Now Revis is the villainous, greedy player who isn’t really that important to the team success…
Why don’t you stop jumping to conclussion’s and overreacting to every little story you read…
You are not in the room or on the phone when they are re-working the deal….you don’t know he turned down a 12-14 million dollar deal and you are pulling these numbers out of your anus!!!!
Chill out and let the Jets and Revis people work out a deal. Cause when it happens and Revis is shutting down WR’s you’ll be jumping out of your seat cheering or wind up like Hank and can’t post here for months after you stuck your foot in your mouth
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Revis shouldn’t be bad-mouthing the Jets???
Do you people even bother to read what he REALLY said???
At no point does Revis bad-mouth the Jets….
You really got to laugh at the backlash this is getting. The court of public opinion is a kangaroo court…
Funny how so many people can love the guy when he is producing WAY beyond his salary, then the minute he wants to be compensated as the best in the world, he’s a villainous pig who’s sole priority is money…
Lowery and Sheppard having good metrics has MUCH more to do with the fact that the burden Revis takes on makes everyone else’s job easier than it does Lowery or Sheppard actually looking like great players.