Link: Top 25 Prospects
Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders takes a look at the Top 25 prospects heading into the 2010 season. Making the list at number three is Jets running back Shonn Greene.
3. Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
Greene’s no secret, of course. After Leon Washington broke his leg against the Oakland Raiders in Week 7, Greene entered the Jets’ rotation at halfback and became an instant contributor. And when we say instant, we mean it in a literal sense; Greene gained 144 yards on the ground in that game over the final three quarters. He was impressive the rest of the way, but he really turned things on in the playoffs, where he became the Jets’ primary back until suffering an injury in the AFC Championship Game. He will retain that role with the departure of Washington and Thomas Jones this offseason. While the Jets are unlikely to be as effective running the ball on a per-play basis in 2010, the increase in Greene’s usage rate should be plenty enough to push him past 1,000 rushing yards.
Barnwell is pretty much spot on with his analysis of Greene. However, it should be noted that Greene was injured for the first few weeks of the season, so he was well rested when his name was called vs. the Raiders. We have yet to see him carry the rock for a full 16 games, so it should be interesting to see what Greene can do if he remains healthy.
29 Responses to Link: Top 25 Prospects
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charleyjet says:
I have every confidence in Greene as the featured back. He is a strong downhill runner and gives more punishment than he gets. He will wear down defenses who won’t want to tackle him in the second half. I don’t expect Tomlinson to get many more touches than Leon did before his injury.
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neauone says:
Tomlinson is going to be a change of pace back who can catch out of the backfield. I expect McKnight to have much more of an impact than Tomlinson.
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Charley,
Believe it or not, that’s a lot of carries (Leon’s workload). In 2007 & 2008 Leon had 71 & 76 carries. In 2009 he had 72….in 7 games. The increased emphasis on running the ball under Rex means that LT will get plenty of carries. Even if McKnight steals some carries, LT is going to be probably getting almost 10 carries a game.
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JesusRevis says:
Where is the rest of the top 25, I just see top 10
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daddybe1 says:
Its seems with rexs ground n pound style our rbs will be hurt or nicked up all year so we may need another rb as odd as that sounds
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BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
JesusRevis – the other list is referenced and hi-lighted in the article above the list,
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daddybe1,
A lot of us believe that John Connor can be that guy, much like Jason Snelling in Atlanta & Le’Ron McClain in Baltimore.
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John Z says:
Hopefully, we’ll see some really effective play action also. Also, don’t forget that Tomlinson is one of the most effective half-back option guys in decades. The guys got 7 career passing touchdowns. Could be a fun wrinkle.
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Brendan oh yea I thought I read that he wasnt much of a run option in college but that would be awesome if he could be our mcclain
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Well, he wasn’t used very much, but he’s talked many times about how he simply wasn’t asked to run it. By what I’ve been reading, he seems like a very capable option. No, he wouldn’t rip off 30 yard runs, but he’d be a powerful runner who could keep the offense afloat.
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Bent says: McClain was hardly used as a runner in college, either. Fingers crossed that Conner can emulate him.
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Porterhouse says:
I’m concerned with Green’s durability. I still don’t understand why he didn’t come back in the AFC championship game.
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It’s the AFC championship – he can breathe after the game.
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NJets says:
I am really really high on everything the Jets did over the offseason, including the acquisition of Tomlinson.
My only concern (and I think others share this concern), is that Rex and Schotty force Tomlinson the ball because of seniority. I felt like they did that too often last year with Thomas Jones (especially when it was visibly clear TJ was finished).
If Shonn Greene, Connor, and McKnight are the young talent (which they are), then they should be showcased this year.
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deuce4417 says:
really everyone needs to relax with these injury talks. lets not forget it was his first season. if he gets hurt a few time this yr i’ll buy into it. you can’t base it off one season
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greene says:
deuce4417,
actually, i think you “should” base it off one season. he had several injuries in ONE season… if those injuries spanned acrossed several seasons, i wouldn’t worry as much, but to know it all happened within such such a small stretch, it gets worrisome.
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juunit says:
I’m still furious at Schottenheimer for starting Jones in every game even after Greene exploded onto the scene like that. Every game Jones would suck, then Greene would come in and average double what Jones would. Who knows, maybe it would’ve led the team to a better record and the playoffs would’ve played out differently.
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sublime says:
Anyone can roll an ankle n the hit in the ribs was a good shot for the most part he is really good at lowering the pads n not taking the hit as much as giving it
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BamBam says:
Everyone keeps commenting about their concern for the health of Greene and our running backs but it’s the health of the O-Line that we should be worrying about. Last year we were thin on talent beyond the star-studded 1st string and fortunately we didn’t have any major injuries.
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Brendan says:
The rib injury didn’t happen in the AFC Championship game, he simply reinjured it there. And if you think you can simply play through an injury that is extremely painful every breath you take then you clearly have never had that type of injury.
Resistance to injury is something that takes time to build. The more experience Greene gets, the more capable he will become at avoiding injury. This also goes for a full offseason of workouts. Greene carried the ball well over 300 times in his final season at Iowa and that was with an ankle injury to the opposite ankle he injured last year. Greene’s toughness and heart should never be questioned.
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rusty sanchez says:
as long as he stays healthy im sure every jet fan will be saying thomas who? by week 4
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Looking at the highlight greene wanted to come back in the game it looked like the drs told him no for whatever reason so I will never question his toughness but him getting hurt severall imes last yr worries me.
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JoeDog says:
Greene will do fine for the Jets but don’t draft him too high in your FFL league. His catches are non-existent. It’s not that he wasn’t used, it’s a skill he doesn’t have. I’d be surprised if he catches 10 passes next year. That places his ceiling somewhere around RB13 even with a monster year on the ground.
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miketaliaferro says:
To Charley via Brendan,
Good catch Brendan. We forget at our peril (of what, I’m not rightly sure…) that Rex’s plan coming out of camp was to have a 3-headed monster in the backfield. He had two main studs with perfectly complimentary skills sets, a pseudo Csonka and Kiick, if you will, as 1 and 1A, to receive fairly equal touches. The plan was that you were never to know what kind of runner was coming at you, so how could you possibly prepare, even though you KNEW a runner was coming at you? Plus, you had that load of a new kid who’d tear a hole in your face as the No. 3 back, to throw at you on occasion to give the other 2 a breather. Pretty much how it was turning out except the rook was hurt too much at the start, then, just as he’s finally OK, we lose Leon. So, he was gone, and Rex had to double TJ’s workload until the kid was ready to finally help out long-term.
Remember, it was never the plan for TJ to have 1,400 yds. He took on that role of lead back for the team — because that’s how the team was built, and it needed him to step up and take over. Which he did. Yes, still touchy about the scorn and crap he took from some here.
Here’s hoping SG has absorbed the mentoring that TJ gave him last year, and is ready to step over and through some folks this year.
As someone said above, I hope he plays so well that HIS contract is talked about. Hell, I hope EVERYBODY ON THE WHOLE ROSTER ends up with a season to give them a legitimate claim to go barging into Tanny’s office demanding a raise!!!!
Career Years, for all my Jets!!
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cmonleon says:
im worried not only because of injury with this guy but with dropping the ball too he did that a few times last year in some pretty big spots. thats the biggest thing that kept TJ out there all season all alone. everytime he ran the ball up the middle i was holding my breath. i hope he fixed it because im now spoiled with having TJ and leon for the past few years not dropping any. man its really weird that BOTH of those guys are gone : ( i wish we had leon……..
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Anyone who is worried about Greene’s fumblitis, and using TJ as the Gold Standard, should go check TJ’s career stats.
In Jones first four seasons he fumbled 13 times, losing 8 of them. And it wasn’t with a huge workload like he has recently had, in those four seasons he averaged 124 carries/per. Like the injury concerns, ball security is a learned skill. TJ could not be a better example of this. He had huge fumbling issues early on, and now people associate his name with ball security.
For what it’s worth, LT fumbled EIGHT times (losing five) in his rookie season. After that, he learned how to protect the football and has lost seven fumbles in his last eight seasons.
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Jeff says:
When talking about ball security, one name always comes to mind – CURTIS MARTIN. Seeing him fumble was something of a rarity.
miketaliaferro, you are right. It was never intended for Jones to carry the rock so much. After Leon went down the carries almost went exclusively to TJ. When Greene’s fumbling started showing up, he barely ran it at all until late in the season.
Sometimes I do miss Leon, I can guarantee we would have won 1-2 games with him on the roster.
If Shonn Greene plays like he did in college, look out NFL. Green will command a hefty pay raise when its all said and done.