Salary Cap Update: The End of the Final Eight Plan
All offseason, we’ve been trying to keep you up to date with developments in connection with the uncapped year, the Final Eight Plan, the CBA and so on. While we make every effort to verify all of the information, we welcome your comments, questions and corrections and are prepared to update the post to reflect these if required (although it hasn’t happened yet). Thanks to Jason from the unofficial Jets cap site for his input.
There, that wasn’t so bad, was it? The Final Eight Plan finally came to an end at midnight last night, one day later than previously advertised. As we suggested, the restrictions of the Final Eight Plan were nowhere near as bad as they were made out to be and the Jets were able to make some moves, without really missing out on anyone that was likely to be a target.
Now that the Final Eight Plan has ended, any Final Eight team can sign any available UFA without restriction. There aren’t actually that many left, so this won’t have much effect. Remember, players that were cut did not count as a UFA for these purposes. Terrell Owens is still out there, I guess.
The one guy the Jets were rumored to have been planning to sign is Mark Brunell. They can now sign him to any deal they like. In actual fact, once Marques Douglas was signed by the Dolphins, the Jets could have signed Brunell then anyway, but the first year cap hit could not have exceeded that of Douglas’ contract and they would be limited to 30% salary increases each year. Now they don’t have to worry about that, although I expect Brunell will get a one-year, low salary deal. (Not to mention that Douglas’ deal might not have been officially approved until Monday).
As things stand, the Jets could potentially receive a compensatory pick in the 2011 draft, assuming they have lost two contributing UFA’s (Douglas and Feely) and gained just one (Taylor). I doubt I am alone in hoping that Brunell will not be needed to contribute, even if they do sign him, which could happen as early as today. Cimini was apparently suggesting there must be some kind of delay because he didn’t sign yesterday, but he obviously wasn’t aware that the date (seven days before camp opens) had moved.
After the jump, some more thoughts about a potential lockout, Elvis Dumervil, Darrelle Revis and a few other bits and pieces.
Lockout
In the comments, Miketaliaferro asked what happens to player contracts in the event of a lockout. Here was my reply:
I’ve been trying to find out a definitive answer to that for some time. As far as I’m aware, it is undecided. If the owners lock the players out, I assume a judge will decide on the contract situation (and that this uncertainty on both sides is a big reason why deals aren’t getting done).
Since then, I discussed the lockout in more detail with Jason, who confirmed that his understanding of the situation was the same as mine and agreed with me that salaries would not be paid during a lockout year, although it would be difficult for teams to avoid paying any money they had previously guaranteed (and up to a judge/arbiter to decide).
The Union has been advising players to set aside 25% of their salary for the last two seasons, so there is clearly some concern that they will not be paid (in full, at least). However, teams will still get some TV money, even if there’s a lockout, so there will be some cash receipts to squabble over.
What will also need to be decided is whether contracts are suspended (so the money due in 2011 will instead become due in 2012 and the contract will end a year later) or whether that year of the contract will simply become null and void. We assume it will be the latter. I don’t even want to think about the post-apocalyptic landscape if the cap never returns and all contracts are extinguished, rendering everyone in the NFL a free agent, but I guess that’s the doomsday scenario.
Since everything is undecided, let’s therefore park this one and return to it later. Moving on…
Dumervil
Bassett already put a post up summarizing our thoughts on this matter. As commenter cmart28 states, to compare this to the Revis situation or the D’Brickashaw Ferguson situation is pointless because it’s a completely different situation. However, that has already started to happen. In this particular example, the author just takes PFT’s word at face value and describes the deal as much better than Ferguson’s because of the full guarantees. Of course, we now know that this is because the Ferguson deal could not include full guarantees, otherwise it would have been rejected by the NFL due to the “reallocation rule” (even though PFT tried to say this was a “red herring”). This rule did not apply to Dumervil’s new contract because his old deal had expired and therefore his new deal was not an extension of a pre-uncapped year deal. (In the same manner, the reallocation and 30% rules would not apply if Braylon Edwards were to get a new deal this year).
Ultimately, other than the difference in guarantees, which the Jets were, by rule, unable to compete with, the deal was pretty similar and could still be cut short after the first year (although this time, PFT decided not to term it as a “1 year, 3.2m deal” or deride it for being full of fluff.
As stated in Bassett’s post linked above, rather than putting more pressure on the Jets to give Revis what he wants, this deal seems to do the opposite by not paying any upfront guarantees. As WOJF pointed out in the comments, it also lowers the bargaining position for Revis that Dumervil signed a deal only averaging 10m a year. Can Revis really command 50% more per year than a top performer of a similar age, who plays a position where the top players tend to get paid more than cornerbacks do? Dumervil will actually get about $14m from 2011 to 2013. That’s fair enough, because he paid out his rookie deal and accepted a contract whereby the first year only pays him just over $3m. If Revis, who has earned $15m in three years, still wants the big money to kick in now, then Dumervil signing this deal (where the big money will kick in after his fifth year and he will have earned a total of just over $5m) hurts his bargaining position.
Ultimately, though, you cannot make a direct comparison. Just know that if anyone tries to use Dumervil signing this deal to paint the outlook, or the Jets’ policies in a bad light, they don’t really have a leg to stand on.
More Revis
I just thought I would run down what might be at stake for Revis if he follows through on his threat to hold out at training camp or if he was to take that one step further and sit out the season:
1. If he holds out for just one day, he will lose the guarantees for the money due in 2011 and 2012 after the Jets buyback the last two years of his contract. This is a big deal because if he suffered a career threatening injury in 2011 or before opening day in 2012, then the Jets could cut him loose and pay him none of that potential $15m salary due in 2012. Also, if his form dipped, the Jets could decide to cut him before the 2012 season, rather than pay him that much money. Seems unlikely, but that’s another option they would have. Also, bearing in mind what we discussed above with regard to the lockout, if 2011 is declared null and void, he might be able to claim the money in court if it is guaranteed. If he has lost that guarantee, it seems a lot less likely.
2. If he holds out past August 11th, he will lose an accrued year. On the face of it, this shouldn’t make a difference because at the end of his six year contract he would still have five accrued years, which would therefore ensure he was a UFA (especially since one of the buyback conditions states that he can’t be franchised). However, if the CBA was to return, the Jets might have the option to really play hardball with Revis and instead of executing the buyback at 5m and (potentially) 15m for 2011 and 2012, they could let him become a free agent. Due to the lost year, he would be a restricted free agent, so if the poison pill was banned in the new CBA as expected, they would fully control his rights and could match any contract offer. The only risk is a ridiculous contract offer from another team, but this would force that team to take on Revis at a ridiculous price and concede first and third round picks, so is a calculated risk. They could then franchise him in year six, so they would still control his rights in that year too, with two first rounders as the draft pick compensation if another team was to sign him. Since the RFA tender and the franchise tag would be lower than the buyback amounts (3-4m and about 8-10m), this would provide further impetus to sign long term.
3. The 15m due to him in 2012 is incentive based. He needs to make the Pro Bowl in 2010 and 2011 to receive the full 15m, otherwise it could drop as low as 11m. If he sits out the 2010 season as part of his contract dispute, that will cost him 2m because he won’t make the Pro Bowl. (I don’t know what would happen if he somehow got voted in anyway, which wouldn’t be totally unprecedented for an American Pro Sports All-Star game.) Then, if the 2011 season is locked out, he won’t be able to make that Pro Bowl either.
4. One further consideration everyone has overlooked, courtesy of Jason, is that part of the buyback process requires Revis to return between 1.2 and 1.3m to the Jets in order to void the last two years of his original six year deal. So, he will get paid just 1m this year, then have to return more than that to the Jets, then could miss out on his 2011 money altogether. It seems harsh, but it’s all part of the contract he signed, which let’s not forget was blasted by other teams in the league for being too generous.
The outlook for Revis could actually be pretty bleak compared with the assumption that he’s going to get 21m over the next three years, so it seems surprising that he has not yet agreed to a longer term deal. He certainly doesn’t need to make his situation even worse by holding out or threatening to sit out the season. Especially since the Jets might be able to threaten to play hardball too.
I can’t predict which way things will go, but we’ll await Revis’ decision on camp with baited breath.
On a Lighter Note, I wonder if Revis read this story from Deadspin. He might actually have a pretty good argument that Asomugha should only get paid 16 nineteenths of what he does.
And Finally…
If you think the Revis situation is confusing, try getting your head round the Ilya Kovalchuk situation. I am trying to follow this, because I believe the outcome will set a precedent that will affect how Collective Bargaining Agreements are worded and how the NFL will deal with serious breaches of the salary cap in the future.
That’s all for now…
14 Responses to Salary Cap Update: The End of the Final Eight Plan
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Jaro says:
Yeah, thanks a million Bent! Great post as usual.
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Ian DeMartino says:
What about Adalius Thomas? I know we signed JT, still he has expressed interest in playing for Rex, is still a free agent, any chance we can get him or are the Jets too cash strapped to sign him?
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Bent says:
I don’t think the problem was cash, but value. AD needed to drop his asking price, maybe.
I do still worry about ILB depth (which is somewhere he could provide cover), but he’d be an expensive sixth (or seventh?) linebacker.
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patpat says:
Brian Baldinger from NFLN has Derrelle Revis as the best overall player in the NFL – above Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson, and Drew Brees
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DaxUSMC from BedSty to Speed,NC says:
Good read..We’ll fam it’s been a while had pc issues.These kind of post I enjoy insightfull and not to much DOOM & GLOOM!! I really believe that the Jets are getting a handle on things heck Stevie Wonder can see who are the core players that must remain in Green & White.And #24 Revis loves his island in the tri-state area.With that said both sides need to get together and work it out.
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neauone says:
I have no doubt a contract will be agreed upon. But why should the Jets be put in a position of weakness if there is no CBA in place and Revis still has 2 years to play under the old contract. The Jets can sit tight and wait it out. Revis “has” to play or lose money. Granted he is all world, but just because the Oakland Raiders gave a ridiculous contract to their CB who didn’t and doesn’t deserve it. How is it Revis thinks he can point to those imbeciles and think that he can demand more. He’s never going to get paid like a QB in this league.
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cmart28 says:
I think the final 8 thing was a perfect alternative to the salary cap. At first, I was worried it would really hurt us. But instead, it did exactly what it was intended to do: Keep parity in the league. The Jets couldn’t resign Feely, so the Cardinals did, making a non final-8 team better and a final 8 team worse. I think it could use some fine-tuning, but for a plan that I originally thought would greatly hurt the league, it turned out well.
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Paul says:
Great article as always… I just can’t wait for camp to get underway! It’s not starting soon enough! Are you ready for some football!!!! I am!
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Doctor K says:
Bent, as always a great analysis and an even more confusion conundrum over the 17 year deal for No.17 which i thought at first was hilarious.
Great link to the article which goes all philosophical on us: “Can you intend to do something to obtain a payout without actually doing what you intend?”Well, it was a nice respite from crushing late inning Met losses….
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RJ says:
Bent, thanks for another great post and for cleaning up the **** that’s left on the Jets’ fans sidewalk.
These media dogs should be fined for leaving their **** where we walk. :)
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miketaliaferro says:
Bent,
Great piece, as always. I sincerely hope you remain with TJB family after the sports-reporting Big Boys grab you and Jason to cover their sports biz beat. The two of you are THAT good; best on the Web (just make sure you’re both well paid. DR might be a role model. lol). Kudos to you both. Thanks for the nod, btw.
To work –
Final Eight:
cmart28 makes an excellent point — The Final 8 teams couldn’t load up; other, struggling teams could add key pieces; and Pete Rozelle-style parity rears its lovely/ugly head once again and there’s peace in the valley.We could use more of Rex’s view on what the players want to see, as well — Can Brunell actually be anything more than a mentor? If Sanchez goes down for five games, say (cancel, cancel, knock on wood…), who steps in so that we don’t miss a beat? Brunell most probably could cover us for a half or so, maybe a game, but could any of the QBs on the roster cover us for five games or more? So, I’m watching Rex more on this one than Tanny. As are the players, I assume.
The Lockout:
Yes, the coming Lockout is THE 600-lb. gorilla trashing our enjoyment of the NFL this year. This is not a side issue; it IS the Game. IMBWB, I do believe I’ve seen that the league has locked in 100% of its TV money for 2011, not a percentage, which the networks are none too happy about but they’re stuck. That’s cash in the kitty. Plus, add in all the PSL and demanded season tkt. (ransom) money, and the owners are sitting pretty, which is why they think they can do this. EVERYTHING that happens in the game today — including teams’ roster planning, competitive moves and ALL salary talks these days — is filtered through the lens of the Lockout.Thanks for helping put this on the radar. Perhaps in Jason’s “copious free time,” he or someone else among us (of the wonky persuasion) might take a look at a few players’ contract details over the last two years, as owners were swinging fully into Planning for Lockout mode. Again, I reserve the right to be absolutely wrong here, but my instincts are screaming loudly that we’d see a pattern emerge in how monies league-wide are planned to be paid out to various types of players — how much up-front; how much in 2009 and 2010, both of which were to be paid; how much phantom money allocated to be paid in 2011, which can be assumed to be Monopoly Money; how much for 2012 and beyond, which may or may not be actually budgeted for payout.
We can assume that many of these issues will end up in court. So, Juris Prudence will become an NFL news staple over the next few years.
I also assume that the league has long-since done away with the pay scale-by-position approach and has instituted a more non-NFL elite/foot soldier class system where your elites from any position get the lion share (since they’re the visible, marketable face of the league) and the others get what they can (and where you bring your budgeting concerns into play). The Jets and a number of other teams are wrestling with a few of their players who seem to have upset their plans by crossing over that divide and joined the elites sooner than anticipated. We’ve seen Tanny struggle to shift gears from paying DR as an excellent CB to paying him as the newly elite player that our own eyes and the entire NFL, nay, sports media have watched him become.
This is all tangled up in the league-wide pre-Lockout preparations. The DR talks are not being held in a vacuum.
I agree with you on not taking the Denver ‘Elvis Has Now Bought The Building’ stories literally or using them for dot-for-dot comparisons. But I do believe, however, that he too is in the process of crossing the elite divide and, as such, can be used in general terms to throw his deal into the pot of elite contracts (along with Brady’s and Peyton’s, when they sign) to create the universe of top contracts to study for terms, dollars, and the timing of ‘payout’ and ‘guarantee’ language (due to the lockout). Again, we can safely assume in a lockout that the Brodney Pooles of the league will not see a dime, while the Peytons and the Bradys will see most, if not all, of their money.
Finally, as per DR reporting to camp:
What you and Jason lay out here about the various contingencies is spot on, with every detail and its ramifications covered. However, I’m afraid it gets caught up in the weeds a bit, my friend.I assume that Team Revis fully understands each and every detail you’ve outlined above. Derrelle is simply too detail oriented in his professional competitive approach to have hired representation that does not match his own detail-driven inclinations. So we assume that they’ve covered all you lay out here, all of the risks they are facing, all of their impacts on DR’s future and life, and made their decisions accordingly.
What this leads them to is simple cliché:
~ All In, or, All Out.
~ In for a Dime; In for a Dollar.Because of the ramifications, I cannot foresee any scenario that does not lead DR into EITHER:
A) Reporting to camp on Day One, which keeps all of the specifics in place as you list them above, while the two sides keep negotiating; OR,
B) Sitting out Day One, which means that this will go to the mat, period. That first day triggers the sequencing for ALL of the Doomsday events in his current contract that you’ve reported. Once that first salvo is tossed, there simply is no turning back.If it’s A, then we all breathe easier, we watch Jets football and his contract becomes mere sideshow.
If it’s B, then this stays front-and-center in JetsWorld for as long as it takes — throughout 2011, if need be. To settle, all of the Doomsday impacts in his contract you note would become fully moot and obsolete. Any new contract would simply replace the current contract fully. It would be an elite contract with dollars paid out on a schedule that smoothly works its way around the sticky point of the Lockout, and anticipates any CBA that evolves from next year’s catastrophe. If he misses Day One, then he has no real option (as you’ve outlined correctly) other than going after the Whole Enchilada.
It’s clear that this is not just about DR. We can safely assume that this kind of elite/Lockout language will be worked into Brady’s new deal and Peyton’s new deal and any other elite deal in the works. Those will be smoother to hammer out since many of these current contracts are petering out, but the end results should be roughly the same as DR’s.
BTW:
The Salley story is great! What’s really striking is that Rony (with no rings) never got Salley’s point, while Salley (with fingers full of rings) suddenly got Rony’s. So sad. So true.Again, Great Work, guys! Thanks!
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Bent says:
Mike – Thanks, and I agree with most of your comments.
“Going all in” is a perfect description for Revis holding out. I think Schwartz would be aware of the possible implications (but wouldn’t say the same thing about someone like Keels), so it will be interesting to see if he’s willing to take the risk. I wouldn’t be surprised if he shows up, makes a big deal about how he’s doing it for football reasons and threatens that he still might hold out later on.
Thanks, Bent, really good stuff as always.