Interview: Football Outsiders Answers on Jets
Our friends at Football Outsiders were kind enough to answer some questions about their thoughts on the Jets for 2010. If you like, you can get all the information on ordering the Almanac on Amazon or on their website.
TheJetsBlog: Football Outsiders has stated that the Jets defense – statistically speaking – is unlikely to be as good as last year … why?
Bill Barnwell: Sheer regression to the mean. Last year, the Jets had the league’s best defense, a figure driven by an incredible pass defense — their -34.2% DVOA against the pass was the fourth-best figure of the DVOA Era (1993-2009).
Unfortunately, when teams are that good in one particular facet of the game, they decline in the subsequent season — it’s just too hard to be that good, year after year. Sure, the Jets should have Darrelle Revis, but the 2002 Bucs (who had a ridiculous -52.5% DVOA against the pass) would’ve said "Hey! We’re still going to have Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks and John Lynch and Ronde Barber. How can you project us to decline, you idiots?" A year later, they were still really good, but they had a -25.5% pass defense DVOA, and that was only good for third in the league.
Some of that is an expected decline from Revis. Now, a year ago, Revis had one of the best years of any player at any position in recent memory. That’s absolutely true. Guys just aren’t the best at a given position, though, year after year. Take Dan Marino, for example. He set the passing record in his second season, 1984, at age 23. Had Football Outsiders been around then, we would’ve projected Marino to decline — just because guys don’t set the passing record <i>every year</i> — and people would have been flooding our Gopher page with angry messages. It’s harder to quantify a cornerback’s relative play, but everything we’ve seen (and our statistics) suggest that Revis was playing at the level of someone setting a record at their position.
TJB: Worst case scenario, Revis holds out the whole year, how much would that affect the Jets season? If he returns, was it just a mirage? Will teams just follow the Colts AFC Championship plan and just throw to the 2s and 3s, even with Cro and Wilson now in-house?
Bill Barnwell: I think Jets fans can probably do the math of what would happen if Revis didn’t play. The scheme would totally change, with no ability to shade the coverage away from one side of the ball. It would push Kyle Wilson into a starting role, and rookie cornerbacks — even guys who end up being very good corners as early as their second season, like Mike Jenkins in Dallas — are usually targets to pick on. The team wouldn’t be able to commit so many players in the back eight to the run, decreasing the effectiveness of the run defense. They could still be good, I suppose, but there’s also a pretty decent chance of the defense being bad without Revis. I can’t imagine them being any worse than good with Revis in the lineup.
It’s hard to follow the Colts’ model because what makes Peyton Manning and the Colts so effective is his ability to stay upright; remember, although Manning was sacked twice in the opening quarter of that game, Rex Ryan defenses had only sacked him three times in 141 dropbacks before that. They didn’t get to him again. Other guys just don’t have the poise and footwork that Manning does.
TJB: We’ve heard that the Jets front office is trying to give Vernon Gholston (now around 270 lbs.) as much opportunity as possible in 2010 (prelude to a trade for a tackling sled?) .. if you are Rex Ryan, how do you actually use him?
Bill Barnwell: Well, in all fairness, an out-of-favor tackling sled has as many pro sacks as Gholston does. If I were Rex Ryan, I honestly wouldn’t be trying to convert him into something he’s not. I’d ignore his salary, keep him as a situational 3-4 linebacker, and find a way to use his unquestionable athleticism in some sort of limited role.
TJB: It’s hard to go anywhere but up from what we saw during much of Sanchez (20 INTs) for the 2009 season … are the pieces the Jets have put in place on offense going to propel him forward?
Bill Barnwell: I think it’s that and natural growth and regression to the mean, as well. It’s really hard for a quarterback to throw interceptions as frequently as Sanchez did in 2009, and while some of the guys who did ended up becoming busts (with some — including Troy Aikman — becoming stars), everyone improved their interception rate from the five percent neighborhood that Sanchez was in last year.
TJB: Fantasy owners are salivating, but what can we really expect out of Shonn Greene in 2010?
Bill Barnwell: The Jets’ offensive line hasn’t missed a start in three years. They’re the only unit in the past 15 years that pulled that off. They’ve also replaced Alan Faneca, and for all his faults as a pass blocker, the man could still clear out holes in the running game. That stuff’s gonna weigh on Greene, and while I definitely think he’s talented, I do believe that he’s overvalued right now. Our projections have him at 254 carries for 1193 yards, and I think his yards per carry and total yardage is a little high.
53 Responses to Interview: Football Outsiders Answers on Jets
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get a life the jets upgrated their defense with cromartie and pool taylor they will be better oh yes jenkins is back to. the jets will leave everyone with their mouth open this year.I believe rex is setting this year up for a memorable one.
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who are you telling to get a life?
the article was pretty objective and made good points. I personally dont think the passing defense will be as good as last year by the numbers.
But numbers are numbers- they have to be better at closing out games.
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Ok But about the Defense regressing, did he realize, we added another All Pro Corner to the other side, WE added Safety not as good as Kerry but someone who hits harder, we got Donovan Warren, who in January was projected to be a 1st round pick, and can’t forget about or 1st round pick Kyle Wilson, and A certain player Named Kris Jenkins, I don’t know if you heard of him didn’t play in 9 games last year, I don’t know how much JT can do, but for arguments sake, we added him too, and we have good depth in the secondary, Eric Smith, Lowery, Coleman, and Warren, IF Revis returns Which I do think he will, I think we can surpass the Bucs DVOA!!!!
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The whole Revis declining thing makes no sense at all. Because he was great last year, he will be worse this year? What kind of logic is that? Revis didn’t get lucky or anything. He faced GREAT receivers and shut them all down, because he is that good. The Jets also upgraded significantly at the #2 CB position as well. Why would their secondary get worse? That makes no sense… If Revis was physically declining it would be one thing. But he is JUST entering the prime of his career. And I GUARANTEE Greene will rush for at least 1300 yards if he stays healthy, and probably more.
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I don’t know that it’s possible to answer this better than Barnwell already did. Revis’s performance last year was an outlier even given the obvious combination of ability and opportunity that produced it. That part is kind of difficult to explain if you don’t understand what 2.95 standard deviations above the mean entails, but the other part isn’t: there’s just no way he’s going to see the same number of throws again. The chilling effect of forcing the quarterback look elsewhere does have value, but a play deterred just isn’t as valuable as a play made. Even assuming Revis is simply ‘that good,’ he’s still astronomically unlikely to get the opportunities required to be as productive again.
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But I totally disagree with that. The Jets dare teams to throw at Revis. They match him up one on one with the other teams #1 receiver all day. Do you think teams are going to prefer to throw to their #2 receiver who is going up against Cromartie with safety help? Revis was the best CB in the league, and he was also targeted the most times in the NFL. Even if he doesn’t get thrown at quite as much, I still don’t see how it makes the team worse. Teams won’t have any more success throwing to their #2 receiver in double coverage. Revis might not have as many passes deflected or INTs. But the Jets should still have a better secondary, and will put up just as scary numbers. Plus, the Jets will also have their Pro Bowl DT back, and they addressed their need at OLB, so they will be able to keep more men in coverage.
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It really all depends on what we think is a better season for the jets pass defense? If its strictly on passing yards given up I find it really hard to believe that the Jets will be first by 20 yards a game again.
Things change from year to year in the NFL. Its possible that teams will adjust to Rex defense with this jets personel. Its possible that the Jets have more than just one injury. I know we were able to deal with Jenkins being hurt but ironically the defense got even better without him!
I personally think the Jets run defense will improve statistically and the Jets Jets pass defense will fall back a little bit.
The lack of great pass rushers will catch up to them at some point. In reality- both starting OLB’s on the Jets roster, in my opinion, are better run stoppers. I’m including Pace in that but hes definitely a balanced OLB. When you look at other 3/4 olb tandems like the steelers and cowboys its clear that in terms of pass rushing- the jets dont have the best pair.
Regardless- Jets should have a top 3 defense in the NFL overall and anything worse than that is a disappointing in my book.
(my book is very special)
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Tyrone: Why are you being rude? Football Outsiders does very good work. They’re not always right, of course, but their analysis is almost always carefully thought out and statistically rigorous. It’s nice of Barnwell to do a Q&A with Bassett. Even if you disagree, you ought to treat him with courtesy. And at least make an effort to address his specific arguments.
For what it’s worth, barring a full year Revis holdout or major injuries, it’s hard for me to imagine the defense declining significantly either. But I would’ve said the same about the 2003 Bucs…. The value of objective analysis is that sometimes reality is counterintuitive. We’ll just have to see. I hope FO is wrong, but I appreciate them giving me something to think about.
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Their concept of regression to the mean works in general with large datasets. It’s not so specific as to say that each team that succeeds one year will fade to the middle of the pack then next. Just that they should win less the next. Now, the Colts really defy that logic and for some time now. These teams are called outliers, they don’t fit the theory. So, what you really have is a set of definitions that fit one team or another and allow for generalizations that mostly come true.
I, for one, think the Jets will improve rather than regress. I have been wrong more that I have been right, to date. I can’t help it!
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I guess getting a bit “analytical,” if I recall stats are all pretty much about their being an “average” and “std deviations” from that…but all of us must remember there were always a few guys and gals who got all A’s all the time. That’s how I see our D. And, while I like the info FO provides, it’s irrelevant if we end up winning 12 or more games. Even with our great D and run game, recall we lost a bunch of close games on stupid last minute let ups and so if we can stop doing that (and Rex coincidentally expressed disappointment w/D not holding off Sanchez in 2 minute drill Friday), we will once again be great. In either event, in just Rex’s second season as our leader the whole persona of this team and public perception has fundamentally changed…it’s no longer “same old Jets.”
Go JETS
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therealrk says:
Here’s my only beef with their conclusion. If the jets are bound to regress at pass defense then why wouldn’t there be progress in terms of sacks and turnovers. For a number 1 defense those stats were pretty low and you would think especially when it comes to turnovers that the team would be better
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Damn, I still remember that Bucs Defense that year, which was beastly. Went up against the top passing team in the league and completely destroyed them.
There have been some really good defenses lately, the 2000 Ravens for sure, 2002 Bucs, and 2008 Steelers to a lesser extent since they got torched in the title game whereas the other 2 did not.
Revis might not have as great a season as last year, but you never know. However if everyone stays healthy, I can see this Defense being up in that list of SB caliber D’s.
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Another thing, what defense is going to be better than the Jets? The Ravens have no secondary now that they lost Foxworth, and Reed is out for at least the first couple games. Green Bay also has a horrible secondary (remember the Arizona game?). Those were the #2 and #3 defenses in football. Cincinnati? Pittsburgh? Those teams gave up like 50 more yards per game… No team has anywhere near the talent that the Jets have defensively. When considering rankings, you also have to consider the talent that other teams have. For the Jets to 3 or 4, at least two teams are going to have to jump them.
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On paper I think the Steelers are the closest in terms of talent.
Their front seven can compete with the Jets front 7. Our strength is our ILB tandem, their strength is their OLB tandem. Having said that- the Jets OLB’s and the Steelers ILB’s are still really good.
While the Jets have better CB’s, the steelers also have a healthy troy. I think the Jets are slightly better on paper.
Its hard to compare the Bengals with the Jets because of the 4/3 vs 3/4 argument but their run defense was really stout last year. Similarly to the Jets- they lost their best defensive lineman very early in the season.
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Yeah I think the Steelers are good on paper. There corners aren’t great, but they are solid every where else. I still don’t see the Steelers making the playoffs this year. I think there offense is going to drop off a lot this season with Big Ben out for the first part of the season, Holmes gone, and a couple rookie linemen. The Steelers already couldn’t run the ball last year. Now there passing offense got a lot worse.
I really like the Bengals defense. Remember, they had a lot of injuries when we played them last year. They have probably the 2nd best secondary in the league though. They also improved a lot on offense with guys like TO, Bryant, Shipley, and Gresham. Benson is one of the most underrated running backs in the game as well. I think the Bengals will challenge the Ravens this year. Remember, the Bengals beat them twice last year. I think everyone is overlooking them.
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Dallas??? good line for a 3-4, awesome edge rushers in ware and spencer, 2 really good corners and were right behind the jets last yr in scoring D i think
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Speculation .. Could, should, would .. In a couple weeks this will all be real so who cares ..
No disrespect to anyone but Football outsiders, PFT etc, is all crap in my opinion.. Too many variables/alternate realities to predict what will & will not happen, why something did or did not in the NFL ..
I’m all for baseless predictions but when you try to pass that same prediction off as fact, we have a problem .. Then again these are educated predictions so what do I know ..
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I love FO, but it seems their analysis of the defense is simply “Revis can’t have as good of a year as last year, so therefore, they won’t be as good”. And if all else remained equal, perhaps I’d agree. But this doesn’t take into account Cromartie for Sheppard, Pool for Rhodes, a (hopefully) full year of Jenkins, the addition of Taylor, and the addition of Kyle Wilson.
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I don’t think there’s anybody at FO who would claim that the indicators are all as one-sided as that. We should be better in the red zone, for example, and pick up more sacks. Given the flukiness of Revis’s performance and the age of the front seven, though, it’s very hard to mount a credible argument that we’re more likely than not to avoid some degree of regression.
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It’s probably advisable to keep statistical likelihood in mind, especially in the preseason when expectations are untempered by performance. Nevertheless, regression to the mean is often overused. It is only useful in the event that there is no judgment involved in the statistic, no choice involved in the performance, no change in personnel or league, identical strength of opponents, order of games, coaching, etc. In fact, it’s a very crude estimate of future performance.
For what its worth, regression to the mean always predicts against consistency, EXCEPT at the mean. So the Yankees won’t repeat. The Colts won’t win 88% of their games, and the Jets defense won’t be as good as last year. Unless it is.
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This is exactly right. “Regression towards the mean” is a valid statistical phenomenon, but FO absolutely abuses it.
A perfect example is Seanmac who for the previous two or three years has stopped by here before each season to imply that we should be wary of an injury to our offensive line due to “regression towards the mean”. The problem is that people I’m sure take that to mean that there is an increased probability that an injury will occur because there hasn’t been one in several years (i.e.: “we’re due”). This “prediction” is unsupported and is not a valid application for “regression towards the mean”. FO has been wrong for three years running on this and in fact anyone would have done at least as well in predicting the health of the Jets offensive line by flipping a coin. This is to be expected because an injury is essentially a random event and the past has no bearing on the probability of a random event occurring in the future.
I do find their statistics interesting and the interview was interesting as well, but it’s a little irritating the way FO constantly overstates the predictive power of their statistics.
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The Jets are the first team in the last 18 years to have all five starters play together for three seasons straight with no injury. If that’s not an outlier, I’m not sure what is. You think they’ll manage the trick again this year?
Anyway, predicting through statistics really isn’t the primary MO of the website, but there’s not much else to talk about in August, so it ends up getting a lot of attention.
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I’ve been sitting at a blackjack table and haven’t gotten blackjack in an hour. That would certainly be an outlier. Are the odds that I get blackjack on the next hand better than usual because of that? Of course not.
Likewise, the odds of the Jets suffering an injury to their offensive line this year are no different than they were last year or the year before or the year before that.
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Bent says: Maybe it’s just a sign they have had particularly durable players on the line.
Let’s hope they (and whoever starts at LG) continue to be so.
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Bent says:
When the Jets replaced Chad with Favre, did they become more or less likely to have 16 starts from their QB?
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Ha, I’d like to think that as well Bent!
To your point about Brett versus Chad, I don’t know if anyone can say with authority if our odds went up or down. I do however think that FO would have said (or implied…) every year Favre plays that he’s more likely to suffer an injury due to “regression towards the mean”. In fact, I’d imagine they also would have predicted that Chad would have been consistently healthier at some point, since suffering a serious injury every other year is an “outlier” as well.
This is the problem with trying to apply “regression towards the mean” everywhere. Like I said before, it’s a valid statistical phenomenon. It’s just not a blunt instrument that can be applied everywhere to make valid predictions about everything.
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Your exactly right. The problem is, the odds of at least one offensive lineman suffering an injury are actually pretty high. The Jets line have been beating the odds consistently the last few years to stay healthy.
That doesn’t mean they’re “due” for an injury, it just means that the smart money is on someone getting injured, no matter what team or year you’re talking about.
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Bent says:
Am I the only one that feels pretty good about their OL depth in the event of an injury?
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Are you going to admit how wrong you were on last years predictions? You weren’t even close.
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Oh and to answer your question about whether the Jets will “manage the trick again this year”: I don’t know. However, and I really don’t mean to put too fine a point on this, regardless of your claims, you don’t know if they’ll manage the trick either.
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Ferraro,
Regression to the mean tends to hold up regardless of whether or not a unit makes personnel changes. You also have to factor in that Cromartie has been terrible for two seasons, that Pool was a nonentity in Cleveland and that Jenkins made no statistical difference to the defense last year. I know that people like to look at statistically based arguments and then say, “But they don’t apply here because of a), b) or c)”, but usually they do indeed apply.
People get heated about their own team, but are much more open minded about other teams. For instance, San Diego is projected to have a serious drop-off this year. Why? Because last year they didn’t do anything well except throw the ball, and they threw the ball freakishly well. They probably won’t have as good a passing game this year because teams simply don’t perform at that level two years running unless they happen to have Peyton Manning, and even if the other parts of the team improve, it won’t be nearly enough to offset the decrease in passing efficiency.
The Jets didn’t do anything very well last year except pass defense, which they were historically good at. As it happens, FO thinks the Jets will get much better in the passing game, but it doesn’t necessarily offset the likely decrease in the pass defense. Every pass defense save one that DVOA has looked at that performed as well as the Jets did last year dropped off the following year, and by dropped off, I mean were often no better than average. (Look at the Steelers last year.)
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They didn’t do anything very well? They were 8th in rush yards against in the entire NFL, and 4th in yards against per rush attempt. The longest run they gave up all year was 35 yards. Not has good as their pass defense, but I’d say that’s at least pretty freaking good.
Again, I like FO. I’m not arguing that their prediction is nonsense. I’m just not convinced that A) Revis can’t come close to what he did last year, and B) even if he drops off some, that the difference between the performance they got out of Sheppard and Rhodes vs. what I think they’re gonna get out of Cromartie and Pool isn’t enough to make up whatever drop-off in play we see from Revis. That’s my prediction…who’s to say who is right? That’s why they play the games. :=)
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T he Jets were #1 rushing, #1 in overall D and #8 in rushing D yet you say the only thing they did well was pass D. The fact that one team got better means the Jets could too. I don’t like to compare at team to it’s predesessor unless a good amount of players are the same. That being said when have we been good against the pass historically? Staying in the near past, we were in 20s ranking in pass defense under Mangini . Also check out Cro ranking last year, he wasn’t terrible just not as good as his rookie year. (sorry about run on paragraph. On my phone)
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Bent says:
If you don’t like the predictions, that’s fair enough, but that’s not all FO does (I’m sure Seanmac could elaborate). They do have a lot of unique statistics to monitor past performance.
The predictions themselves are based on a more comprehensive set of data than those of your run of the mill talking head, but at the end of the day, regardless of how well you interpret the data, predictions can turn out to be right or wrong for a multitude of reasons.
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off topic but will vernon gholston play defensive end in a 3/4 front or a 4/3 front with us?
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Bent says:
Both. He’s backing up Shaun Ellis, which means he’ll probably be opposite Calvin Pace, who will sometimes line up as a DE and sometimes as an OLB, which will determine whether it’s a 3 or 4 man front.
He did both last year too, at times.
I expect he’ll also play some DT on passing downs. He also did a bit of that last year too.
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There’s some truth to both sides of this argument.
Yes, some of the new statistical models are better than gut guesses when it comes to predictions. And “regression to the mean” does occur- even if we don’t have a full grasp on all the variables, it’s just a fact that statistics support- apparently some form of luck is evening out.
Where these models fail, though, is exactly in what some Jets fans feel we have brewing- emerging greatness.
If Revis ends up being better than Deion (which, even w/ his ridiculous year, is a HUGE if) we may learn that last year was, in fact, an average one for him.
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Joe B. says:
Convert Vernon into something he’s not? This dude does realize VG was a down lineman in college right? I’d say the last two years were “trying to convert him into something he’s not.”
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I love FO because they go in depth with their stats. But saying Revis will regress because Marino’s sophomore season wasn’t better then his rookie season is not in depth analysis. It doesn’t take into account the quality of WRs he will face this year. Last year that was an incredible list, this year should be easier for him. Doesn’t that seem like a better way to predict a CB’s upcoming season, looking at quality of WRs and QBs he will face OR saying th CB will have a decline because a guy playing a different position on the other side of the ball, from the 80s had a decline after his rookie season. As for the team, what about the key new guys, the return of Jinx and the fact that the team will be in their second year of Rex’s scheme? I would expect them to have provided stats for teams in their second year of a ne Defensive scheme, stats on strength of schedule, but all we get is TB wasn’t as good the next year. Does anybody from that team play for the Jets or any of those coaches coach us? Has a number 1 D ever been #1 the next year? Has a #1 D ever been better the next year? The Buc, Bears and Ravens have all had one of the great D of all time, did they have their great defensive year in the first season aquirring a new DC and scheme? Maybe the Law of Averages does say we should expect regression but try to play roulette with that, lost a couple hundred cause red came 22 times in a row!
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I’m a fan of FO, so I should say that first. But, I’m guessing it only happened once to you that red came up 22 times in a row. The rest of your roulette-playing life, you probably haven’t seen that kind of outlier, right?
Also, how do you figure that Revis sees worse #1 receivers this year? Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss x2, Brandon Marshall x2, Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Lee Evans x2, Eddie Royal, and whoever Chicago and Cleveland have as #1s.
Last year he faced Miami twice without Brandon Marshall (massive difference), a hurt Ochocinco, one half of Reggie Wayne, and whatever bums were the #1s for Oakland, Tenneseee, and Jacksonville. Not to take anything away from Revis’s historic season, but it’s not like he can take it easy on Sundays this year.
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I’ve generally enjoyed the stats on FO. I do have a bad taste in my mouth from last year when they refused to discuss their team rankings on defense. I was convinced that their rankings were flawed because the Packers were ranked second overall, and the Pack’s pass defense last year was appallingly bad. They gave up an extraordinary number of touchdowns by way of the pass. I tried to discuss it and offered what I thought were well reasoned arguments why their rankings overestimated defense in certain circumstances but I was shut down by Bill Barnwell, who didn’t want to hear it. I didn’t consider that the proper attitude for a stat site.
As for the discussion above, I don’t much care what a guy from FO thinks about the Jets future. Statistics interpret the past. Everything else is inference and speculation. As for what he thinks Rex ought to do with a player, I am overwhelmed with indifference.
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TOON2388 says:
AW: great brief summary of how many of us think of FO. Love the mountains of data they provide, but when they delve into future predictions they become a tad “kiperish.” Let’s just hope they can adjust future predictions and at least admit when they are wrong – unlike Kiper. Still waiting for Mel to jump into the “past JETS draft blunders montage” by saying “had they not taken Blair Thomas I would have ripped them.”
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I think FO has interesting metrics to analyze past performance, but their predictions are inherently flawed. For instance, the Tampa Bay comparison is completely unfounded when applied to the Jets. In 1997, Dungy installed his “Tampa Cover 2″ defense and had his core of Sapp, Brooks and Lynch. Dungy had 6 years to acquire defensive players for his system. Gruden to his credit kept the same defense intact, tweaked the offense and vultured a Super Bowl win. The Jets are in year 2 of Rex’s defensive makeover. It would stand to reason that as Rex gets his type of players in his system, the defense might actually improve. As for the pass defense getting worse, that depends a lot upon how the Jets play offensively. If the Jets get leads and run effectively, other teams will be forced to pass a lot against the Jets. Last year, teams attempted 501 passes against the Jets, 540 against the Pack, 535 against the Vikings and 547 against the Bengals. Teams playing the Jets didn’t want to pass, they thought they could run and wait on Sanchez’s mistakes. This season, the Jets could, in theory, be playing prevent defenses or subbing starters for the 4th quarter when other teams could meaninglessly pad passing stats. I expect the Jets defense to be better (tougher against the run, more takeaways) even if there’s a regular season statistical tail off. Real issue is the offense, which must improve quite a bit for the Jets to be an elite team.
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I had written something a few months back looking at these same type of trends and even though I often dont agree with all of FO does as well as what seems like a reluctance to consider other variables (I think they seem to believe t in analysis this trend definitely holds true beyond just “the best defense” every year falling.
http://www.nyjetscap.com/defensivegreats.html
I think one of the issues is that defense is often a bit more reliant on offseason planning and offense than some think. I believe as a one season deal you can get by with limited offense as the Jets did last season. I think now more than ever coaches in the NFL need a full year to prepare for the unknown. The Jets caught teams off guard and other teams read into the hype. I think they then go into the offseason and watch tape and start to actually realize that the defense cant beat them and its ok to take more chances and where those chances can be taken. But more importantly the huge defensive team is often coupled with a mediocre offense and alot of work goes into overhauling the system the following year. Its only natural for that offense to put the defense in worse positions than they were accustomed to the year before.
I did not really look into offenses at all, but the really good offense is typically dependent on the QB position. Its not really affected by the defensive performance at all and, over the course of a 16 game schedule, there is nothing a team can do to take away an elite QB. Defenses are different. You can gameplan them. You can gameplan a corner. you can gameplan a LB. You can even gameplan a DE. You simply play keep away. But its extremely hard to gameplan the guy who has the ball in his hand every play and is an elite level player.
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I think Shonn Greene is the best fantasy option on this team. The Jets ran the ball more than any other team last year, by a lot. Greene has deeper skills than Thomas Jones, who ran for 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2009. While L.T. will take some of Greene’s carries, I expect that back to match Jones’ stats unless he fumbles away the starting job to Tomlinson.
Hey Bassett, I hate to toot my own horn here but as a member of your blogroll (Mets Jets Nets Blog) I wanted to let you know that an awesome new site called Jets Report has enlisted me to write about the Jets on their site. I just wanted to say thanks for the support from the TJB team and if you wanted to put my new blog on the blogroll, I’d love that.
On topic, love football outsiders. along with pro football focus, i like having these two sites to supplement the old school 20th century stats that football is used to. i love the 21st century. we’re living in the future! haha. let’s just hope that regression to the mean isn’t as drastic as it was for the buccaneers.