Outsider’s View: Minnesota Vikings Week 5
I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.
(As a heads up, negative percentages are good on defense, bad on offense & specials)
Pass Offense: -33.5% (30th)
Rush Offense: 3.3% (12th)
O-Line Ranking: Run 10th / Pass 10th
Analysis: The thread of why this offense is so bad is easy to pick out. Brett Favre. Right now, FO ranks Brett Favre 37th out of all QBs in the league … just behind Oakland’s Jason Campbell. That’s just sad.
Through three games, Favre has only 2 TDs to 6 INTs and a lost fumble. Last year he only had 7 INTs all season, and he’s not even 1/4 of the way through the season, yet he’s on the verge of besting that mark. The only reason that the Vikings have a win is some guy named Adrian Peterson, who should be the Jets key focus defensively.
The thing is, if Favre and his receivers (his best WR Percy Harvin is right now is ranked 68th – yikes) finally get on track, then it could be a long day at the office for the Jets. Getting Darrelle back for this game is a must, especially with the addition of Randy Moss. While Cromartie played him well in the second half of the Week 2 matchup. I think that Brett Favre is (1) a much more careless QB than Brady is which means he’ll heave it more and (2) Favre for all his faults, is actually a better deep ball passer than Brady is. To me, this means that having Darrelle to match Randy would be a great option, because Favre might still try and force the ball to his new toy leading to some timely interceptions by Revis, while Cromartie and Company cover the rest of the Vikings as appropriate. Maybe the Jets even switch Cro onto Randy if they are feeling confident.
To me, if Revis plays, the big two matchup to keep an eye on would be Adrian Peterson versus Scott/Harris and Percy Harvin versus whoever covers him (Wilson? Lowery? Coleman?). If the Jets can negate those two players, I think the rest will fall in line for the defense.
Pass Defense: 8.1% (15th)
Rush Defense: –15.7% (10th)
D-Line Ranking: Run 8th / Pass 24th
Analysis: Great against the run, not so much against the pass. This seems to be the raison d’être of this Vikings team. Back in 2006 when the Jets faced the Vikings, they were one of the best run-stopping teams in the league, and Chad Pennington and rookie OC led the Jets to a 26-13 smokeshowing of the Vikings. Cedric Houston was the top ballcarrier, and he went for just 53 yards, while Pennington threw for over 300.
My point is, while this might not be a super showing for Tomlinson & Greene, the Jets should be putting the ball in the air to move the chains on this team. With Cotchery & Keller split out, the team should be able to move the chains, with Edwards and Holmes wide, the Jets should be able to put the ball downfield when they need to..
Special Teams: 0.1% (12th)
Analysis: The one area that the Jets are going have to watch out for is the punting game by the Vikings, they are good at punting and in coverage of punts. The Jets will need to watch out for this if they get into a field position game at any point against the Vikings.
21 Responses to Outsider’s View: Minnesota Vikings Week 5
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Isnt Jared Allen an edge pass rusher that will be matched up on Brick? If he tries to go inside on Brick then hopefully Slauson will pick him up
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Everyone talkin like randy now can beat Revis, but aside from the hamstring that whole play Revis played it wrong, Cuz he didnt jam and be physical on randy at the line and gave him the run start!!
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Its a bunch of nonsense.I’m just sick of everyone saying Moss is better based on 1 play.That was the only thing Moss did all game on Revis.Moss still didn’t go over 40 Yds that entire game and the last 2 meetings,Revis completely shut down Moss.If they want to say Revis is no longer the best CB in Football and is overated based on that 1 play when he wasn’t 100% than maybe they shouldn’t cover football.Just because Revis isn’t GOD, doesn’t mean they should view Revis as a scrub and put Moss on a High ceiling.Its amazing how if Woodson and Aso get burned they will ignore it completely.Just for the record, if Revis is healthy..I believe he will Shut Moss down.What has Moss done this season that can say he is so special?He makes 1 play the entire season against a hurt Revis and these Analyst think Moss is a Beast.Its insane.
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completey trueJ woodson got toasted, trucked and burnt by fiztgerald in the playoffs and nobody removed him from his spot.
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wow a cedric houston mentioning thats a throwback haha
so happy to be in the rex ryan era and out of having rb’s like cedric houston
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How was Cedric Houston bad? He was a 3rd string RB that left the NFL for personal reasons.
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Can’t wait to see how the O will do with the addition of Holmes. Would be nice to Connor bring the pain on Jared Allen followed up by Greene running him over.
If Revis is still not “100%” or in “football condition” then he definitely shouldn’t play. The rest of the D will just have to step it again as they have since wk 1.
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all I have right now is the jets. My life blows right now. I have nothing. I’m going to the game Monday. At least I can look forward to that.
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from a die hard fan to another have fun at the game but the jets are all a lot of us got right now
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I’d be interested to know, if there are any doctors on TJB, what’s more of a risk for aggravating a hamstring injury: sprinting in a (mostly) straight line, or not running quite as fast but changing direction a lot. If it’s the former, I’d stick him on Harvin, if it’s the latter, he should be on Moss. Considering Cro’s athletic ability and how he performed in Week 2, I’d have no problem seeing him on Moss primarily in this game.
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“Favre for all his faults, is actually a better deep ball passer than Brady is”
is that based on statistical metrics or just opinion. because when i think of mr wrangler jeans, all i think about is in 2008, him heaving balls downfield into double and triple coverage and getting them picked. granted, he had better deep ball weapons last year with harvin and rice, but i personally think he would be doing us a favor by trying to beat us with the deep pass.
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I personally hope revis doesn’t have to play and if he does stick him on percy harvin(i’m going against him in fantasy), but these hammy issues are tricky as we have seen with knowshon moreno. We don’t need revis dealing with this all year long. I say suit him up and if were getting killed then puut him in. I can’t wait to see this d beat up on favre..the team didn’t like him when he was here we won’t say it but this game is personal.
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I think we must start to think outside the box. The Jets “are” the team to beat. From what I read in these posts are “fear” of meeting the old Farve and the old Moss. If the truth be told, it may just be that the game has passed them by, and Minny is just trying anything they can to put together a 500 season. This is not to take away the potential of the duo, but lets be clear here. Sanchez and the Jets are firing on all cylinders, the defense has had some wrinkles, but on the whole we are up there in the top 5 in defense. I’m not concerned about Minny, we beat them this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Farve toss a few int’s to boot.
At http://www.advancednflstats.com they have the Jets with a winning percentage of 75% over the Vikings.
Bothe teams defenses are very close to each other (middle of the pack), but the Vikings offense is worse (Favre has a bunch of Ints too)
The Vikings have played weaker teams too.
>>My point is, while this might not be a super showing for Tomlinson & Greene, the Jets should be putting the ball in the air to move the chains on this team. With Cotchery & Keller split out, the team should be able to move the chains, with Edwards and Holmes wide, the Jets should be able to put the ball downfield when they need to..
I agree 100%
My 2 biggest question are -
1 – Is Revis really healthy? **DO NOT** play him unless he is 100%. Take no risk. We need him for the rest of the season and playoffs.
2 – Can Randy Moss be that good with just a few days of practice with the team? I’m not saying he will not be good, but I am hoping he wont be on the same page with Favre on a number of plays, and thus not have a great day.