Strategy or Tactics: What’s Really Wrong with the Offense
In the military, a distinction is made between strategy, and tactics. Good tactics might involve attacking the enemy with infantry from the left, or with artillery at night, in order to win an immediate objective. On the other hand, good strategy, might be not attacking at all because the objective will provide no long term advantage. For any military unit, both tactics and strategy are important. A football team’s offense can be evaluated along the same lines.
When you see evaluations of play calling on this site, typically our analysis extends no farther than the tactical . What does the OC do on first down, run or pass? How does he follow up running plays, another run, or a pass? These are the patterns that are easiest to see. That’s why dopes like us see them. Moreover, that’s why we frequently talk about execution. Execution is a child of tactics. But, there’s another way to look at the game and the game plan. That is, strategically.
We have talked and debated the tactical side of the offense long enough. Jason, of nyjetscap,.com, has finally given us an analysis of the strategic side of offensive playcalling. I won’t ruin the article before you read it, but just to tantalize you a bit, I’ll mention that, our real problem is second down, and in his estimation, we’re blundering badly by not recognizing our own strengths and weaknesses. It’s a brilliant piece of analysis. Check it out. Here’s a link: http://www.nyjetscap.com/jetsplaycalling.php
47 Responses to Strategy or Tactics: What’s Really Wrong with the Offense
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It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that running on second and long all the time is dumb both strategically and tactically. Especially when you then have your second year QB who even on his best day doesn’t complete 60% of his passes stuck in third and long. The problem I have with Schottenheimer is I just don’t think he’s very intelligent. He thinks he is, and he thinks he’s fooling people, but he really is not. I’d be astounded if he really found a head coaching job after this season.
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Very interesting. It quantifies the ‘Schotty sucks’ argument and shows Sanchez’s role in this too.
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The reason 2nd down has suffered so much is it is very predictable. When the run on first, they throw on 2nd, and when they throw on first they run on 2nd. This is almost always the case. So if they don’t gain significant yardage on first down, 2nd they get stuffed, leaving them to face 3rd and long. Sanchez’s completion % is too low to be successful on 3rd and long.
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Bang on! They are stuttering between pass and run. Lately, they never deliver a flurry of passes or a long sequence of runs.
If Mark hits two in a row, go hurry-up and fling the ball.
If hit two runs in a row keep pounding, even if everybody knows where the ball is going.
Balance shmalance!!
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Someone is sending in the plays, I wonder who? Wait! Could it be the OC? naaaaaaahhhhhhh!
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Bent says: They definitely had a different approach this week.
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Bent says:
This study – which is great (good job, Jason) underlines the fact that a lot of what the Jets do is not that dissimilar to other teams and that they do certain things better than or comparably to other good teams, so they are doing some things right.
I assume this is not significant either, but at times this year, the Jets have used audibles and run/pass kill options, so some of the play selection comes down to the QB’s read of the defensive formation.
Anyone who says they always or never do something is underestimating how often this team breaks tendencies. Unfortunately, they have an inconsistent success rate when doing so.
The Jets obviously must improve in certain situations, primarily the red zone (regardless of down).
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Bent: Do you see that these numbers show that the Jets are, in fact, good at running the ball in short yardage situations? It corroborates the FO numbers and suggests that they ought to be running more in 3 yards to go and under situations.
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Bent says:
Yes, statistically they are. That’s because they pick their spots. They run a lot in short yardage situations (more than Jason and I bet most people thought). The reason is because they rarely run in short yardage situations against certain teams – principally those with size. When they’re confident they run and are successful (Browns game – ran 9 of 13 times in short yardage and went 11-13), when they aren’t, they usually don’t. If they did, the numbers would look much, much worse…and everyone would be saying why do they never pass in those situations!
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Led says:
I’d want to see some numbers to back that up. In order for that to be the explanation for the jets greater effectiveness than other teams at short yardage running, the Jets would have to run it LESS than the other tems against good run defenses.
In any event they still ought to run it more in those situations even if it means their average goes down.
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Bent says:
I’m not sure I agree. I think they’re playing the percentages. Drives will stall more often if they know the run will be more often than not stuffed if they run into a short yardage defense.
I might try and run some numbers but I am pretty certain that the high percentage of runs on third and short will breakdown as a very high percentage against some teams (ie the Browns example I stated) and very low against other teams.
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When I decided to do the overview I actually expected to see some wild differences, specifically on 3rd downs. I was surprised at what I found there because I know that is a departure from what they did from 2006-the midway point of 2009. I was also a little surprised at the 1st down numbers as I thought they would be higher in terms of run/pass selection. I know the Jets are the highest in that grouping but its not that bad and they certainly gain a good amount of yardage there.
I really think those second downs boil down to Sanchez having far too much responsibility than he can handle and I think the run/pass kills that you talk about are happening often, specifically when the yardage is in the category where a defense should be thinking both run and pass. I think it may be significant actually. Those are clearly his worst situational statistics when they should be his best. His best all come in the down and long category where he likely doesnt think and just plays.
The Jets throw more in those 2nd and < 6 type downs than other teams. My guess is teams picked up on a tendency to check to pass after those first 5 games (that is when the offense began to stall out completely) and have just baffled him with the fronts they present.
Id say the other thing that makes most of us think otherwise about the playcalling is that the Jets have a habit of going all in. Its not like you get a balanced 60/40 run/pass split in a game. Some games its probably 75/25 and others its 40/60. When something doesnt work those extremes become noticeable and against Miami it was very noticeable, but I think that gameplan actually came from Rex not Schotty. The 3rd and 1 shotgun wildcat with 3 in the backfield is always going to drive people insane too.
If they just tweaked things a little bit i really think they would be in a far better 3rd down position and probably start converting more often.
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Bent says:
I agree – this week’s gameplan was a little different. Due to Rex? Who knows.
And tweaking things sounds much more sensible than hastily canning the OC to me.
How long did this take you?
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We had a bit of a babysitter emergency the other day (by emergency meaning she called up as I was leaving for work and said “Im sick”) so I was able to run all the stats in an afternoon while we had some napping going on. It really didnt take too long once I had my spreadsheets all together and formulas in place, though time is the reason why I did not take into account the once in a blue moon end around type plays.
They certainly cant can the OC right now. I dont even know if they should strip him of his playcalling. What they do need to do though is have Rex and him get on the same page in a game. They clearly are not. Rex is playing for a 53 yard FG and Schotty has guys running 15 yards down the field in hopes of picking up a long 1st. 3rd and 7 and the offense is trying to get a 1st down while Rex has decided its 4 down territory and instead of 4th and 3 they now have 4th and 7. Schotty calls a spike and Rex fumes on the sideline. This whole “I got the defense you got the offense” attitude worked great for Mike Ditka and his dad, but it never worked anywhere else for his father. I think the Rex/Schotty relationship is a bigger issue in game than people think.
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Jason: Thanks for doing that work and sharing it. It’s very interesting. I was a little surprised by some of the numbers too. (Like you, my head explodes when they empty the backfield on 3rd and 2, so those tend to stand out more.)
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I know it’s appealing to imagine that a little tweak here and there would free up the offense but the fact remains that, notwithstanding the differences at quarterback, the Patriots, Saints and a few other teams get a whole lot more out of a whole lot less talent than we do. We’ve got a bright, young quarterback with a good arm and good feet, two Pro Bowl wideouts, a steady 80 catch third receiver, a very talented tight end, a power runner other teams would envy, a great pass catching tailback, and a good, if banged up offensive line. Many other teams manage to score better and more consistently with a lot less. I respectfully submit that the problems need more than a little tweaking.
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I think those are two different issues though. One if talking about simply being more efficient on offense. Eliminating the 3 and outs. Minimizing the turnovers. Flipping field position and maybe turning punts at the 45 into field goal tries from the 35.
The scoring issues I think are a deeper issue with the team. That goes back years now. They simply are a product of their schedule. Nothing better or worse. Thats not just a Sanchez issue. The thing is in the games they lost this year, just a little offense would have produced 3 wins. Next year is a different story.
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I agree and I agree that a knee-jerk firing is not what the team needs right now. Still, a few changes would certainly benefit: dump the wildcat or throw out of it, use formations that have run/pass options, pass more on first down, run on third and less than four, go to high percentage routes on second down and put Sanchez in a position where he can run for a first down. If Hunter is the only option, they’re going to have to go to a moving pocket, too. I hope that’s what they’re practicing this week. Steelers will eat Hunter for lunch.
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Bent says:
Doesn’t Jason’s article indicate that they run on third and less than four more than other teams and with a higher rate of success? Also, they run better than other teams on first down, which suggests the amount they run on first down is about right.
Also, they pass out of run formations and run out of passing formations more than you think. Read BGA Extra for details.
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I believe Jason concluded that they ought to pass at least 55% of the time on first down, because, despite the 4.7 avg, they are much more likely to wind up 2nd and > 5 than when they pass where its either 2nd and ten, or second and short. It’s not that they don’t succeed at running on first. It’s that winding up 2nd and 6 is disastrous. Jason also points out that 3rd and 3-5 to go is Sanchez’s worst situation. He’s barely 35% completions.
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Bent says:
Sounds reasonable enough.
I don’t know what to expect on Sunday because I suspect Rex and Schottenheimer would each approach the game differently, but I do not expect them to run much on third and more than one, based on my theory that they will consider that to be a low percentage option against a big team with a good run defense like Pittsburgh.
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The run on 3rd and less than 2 more than other teams. They are middle of the pack in terms of YPC there (about 2.6) and its not the lack of a QB that makes them bad there. The Colts run 51% of the time and average 1.73 YPC. The Jets numbers, though, are skewed by LT sucking in that spot (1 YPC). They go up to 3.4YPC with Greene.
Id say they should throw on 1st down a little more. Im not saying it because the run is not working, but just because Sanchez is very effective on that down. He completes about 55% of his passes and rarely throws interceptions. The big negative is that he gets sacked alot on 1st down which sets up the 2nd and no chance situations. I dont know if those come out of shotgun plays that allow the opponent to tee off or if the Jets are doing something to signal a blitz or Sanchez just holds it too long, but that is the big negative with the play. My guess is if they cut the run back 5% they wouldnt lose much and might gain something.
The worst situations for his passing are 2nd and less than 6 yards to go and 3rd and between 3 and 5 yards to go. Comparatively, especially on those 2nd down plays, he is a total disaster. Definitely makes me think something there is way too complicated for him.
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Bent says:
They seem to end up in a lot of passing situations due to penalties too.
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Bent says:
As an aside, until this week, the Jets have not been getting a lot of three and outs.
I haven’t run the numbers, but I’m almost certain they go three and out a lot less than last year.
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That makes sense.
FO’s drive stats (which are very informative, by the way) show that the Jets are 19th in the league in yards per drive at just over 27 yards. The problem is they are 24th in TDs per drive even though they have the 2nd best starting field position due to good defense and special teams. And it’s not turnovers — the Jets are 10th best in the league in turnovers per drive. As with personnel, the offensive performance is less than the sum of its parts. Penalties are a big problem, playcalling on the plus side of the field is another (we’re across the 50, time for a gadget or the wildcat!), and red zone performance is another.
Schotty isn’t the only problem, by far, but ultimately it has to be on the coordinator when the offense underperforms its statistics and its personnel.
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Fire Schotty during the offseason
Hire Josh McDaniels
If McDaniels was able to develop Kyle Orton, he should be able to develop Sanchez. And he won’t look to be Sanchez’s “best friend”-
We already have one dirty coach that we still haven’t fired yet… We can’t take on a videographer too.
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the real issue is the oline and their protection. mark seems confused whether to run out pocket or go back, which is schotty’s fault.limp legs should take off went pocket collapses. his fear of running is so obvious the other team instinct is to eat him right up. again, schotty’s fault. he needs to run whenever and take that chance so to prove he’s a capable runner. foward progress not backwards.
maybe then will this kid get some respect cause for now he’s a laughing stock. -
Great analysis, but the problem is that the fans are more likely to do something with it than Schotty.
Can Schotty avoid 2nd and long situations and simplify things for Sanchez on 2nd & 3rd downs? I doubt it. Many of us have called for reducing pre-snap movements and letting Sanchez play more instinctively to no avail.
It’s noteworthy that Mark was a better QB once they implemented the color coded system last year which was accompanied by simplifying the O game plan.
I say the kid can be very good if they adjust to where he is mentally now, but Scotty rebuffed suggestions to simplify a few games ago when he said “I know Mark can handle it.” So forget Sanchez, the question is can Schotty learn?
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When I think how easy they could’ve won the Miami game it hurts. The mountain is so much higher to overcome in order to beat the Steelers.
The only positive I can think of is if they do beat the Steelers, their confidence will be back where it was when they felt they could beat the world.
That makes this a huge game.
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It is not correct to relate execution to tactics. Execution is related to implementation and not planning. O-line must do so and so for a proper cover of a timing pattern. And further in order to carry that out QB must move in a following pattern and the lineman must be able to find proper angle, move their feet and adjust body position. And that goes on and on and on. Tactics is an ability to analyse what are the physical abilities of each player on your and the opposite team and how to match that in order to gain an advantage. And then how to link it to a complete play (you need to bring also proper routes adjustment and all that for WR, RB and each one must use a certain technique to accomplish each task. In history of football there were teams that were able to run on first, second, third in short and long and were successful. All that crap that a lot of people mention are Monday quarterbacking.
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Bent, is it possible to confirm that Jets over this season are attempting a low percentage pass plays on 2nd down (especially short distance). Interesting analysis. Would love to know the methodology used, since 2nd was analyzed for only two possible outcomes. Would also love to know what are the %% Jets end up for each down. For example – how often they are in 2&20, 2&10, 2&5, 2&3. Same for 3rd downs.
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Great analysis, but I wonder whether the way defenses have played against the Jets have changed over the season. It seems to me that teams are more willing to put 8 men in the box in 2nd down passing situations now. I think another factor that really hurts the Jets is that the way to combat 8 in the box and run blitzes is the screen game, but Sanchez is terrible at executing the screen pass. I’ve seen too many screens set up for long gains, maybe even TDs, because the Jets catch a team in a blitz and the Jets have numbers on the outside. But, Mark misses the pass. Of all the ample criticism that Schotty deserves, his failure to coach up Sanchez to perfect the screen is, IMO, the most egregious.
schotty is whats wrong with the offense