BGA: Depth on the Defensive Line?
During the offseason, I’ll be looking back at certain aspects of the Jets’ season by analyzing data compiled from all nineteen games, rather than watching film. I will be tackling as many diverse topics as possible, but welcome your suggestions or requests in the comments.
This week, I’m going to consider some of the young backup defensive linemen that played sparingly during the season. (Marcus Dixon, Jarron Gilbert, Matt Kroul, Martin Tevaseu). Can we learn anything from their performance in limited doses during the season? Which of the young linemen – if any – have the greatest chance of making a contribution next season?
I’m going to consider how the defense performed in terms of stopping the run and getting pressure on the quarterback with these guys in the game to try and determine who performed the most effectively and whether anybody showed that they deserve a longer look.
Once again, this article has used data exclusively provided to us from the guys at PFF. Our thanks, as ever, go out to them.
Run Defense – How the Team Performed
In order to determine how the run defense performed when there was a backup in the game, we need to consider how the defense performed as a whole, to set the baseline for our comparison. In order to determine this as accurately as possible, I have excluded the following from the data:
1. QB scrambles – because these are designed as pass plays, not running plays, so the linemen will be pass rushing rather than playing run defense); and
2. QB kneel plays – because if you were in the lineup and a QB took a knee, this would artificially reduce the yards per carry average without you actively doing anything to influence the play.
3. The Postseason – because other than Martin Tevaseu (who we’ll look at separately), none of the young backups got to play in the postseason.
I have not excluded designed QB runs or gadget plays like end-arounds, because these are still plays where the linemen have to play the run.
The resulting adjusted data gives us the following:
376 carries, 1,271 yards (3.4 yards per carry).
The following numbers are also useful:
- First down/Touchdown rate – 18% of all carries
- Big Play (More than 10 yards) Rate – 5% of all carries
- Average per carry excluding big plays – 2.6 yards
- Games with ypc over 4.0 – Five (31%)
- Games with ypc under 3.0 – Four (25%)
Run Defense – Individual Numbers
Let’s look at the rushing numbers when each of the four youngsters was in the game, before we try to decipher what the numbers tell us.
Matt Kroul
Carries – 23
Yards – 45
Yards per Carry – 2.0
FD/TD rate – 22%
Big Plays – None
Marcus Dixon
Carries – 20
Yards – 42
Yards per Carry – 2.1
FD/TD rate – 20%
Big Plays – None
Jarron Gilbert
Carries – 10
Yards – 9
Yards per Carry – 0.9
FD/TD rate – None
Big Plays – None
Martin Tevaseu
Carries – 12
Yards – 26
Yards per Carry – 2.2
FD/TD rate – 17%
Big Plays – One (8%)
Initial Observations
As you can see, if any of the four was in the game, the average in terms of yards per carry was lower than the norm. However, it would be short-sighted of us to draw the conclusion that these guys are better than the starters. Instead, there are some obvious reasons for this.
1. Sample Size. In each case, the number of snaps the backups were involved in was much smaller than the guys who comprised the main rotation. As they have only given up one “big play” between them, there are no outliers that would make a big difference to the ypc numbers. However, the fact that they did not give up any big plays is a positive sign that they were able to come into the game and enable the starters to rest without giving up any costly mistakes. It should also be noted that the ypc numbers for all four are still lower than the overall ypc numbers, even if “big plays” are omitted from the data set.
2. Diminishing Returns. The small sample size has an added effect in terms of the backups being fresh whenever they enter the game. If any of these guys played 50 snaps, they’d almost certainly struggle a lot more than the current starters, but if they can fill in for 5-10 snaps, that may be preferable to leaving in a worn-out starter who has already been in the game for 40-45 snaps. In order to optimize their usefulness, the coaching staff has to determine the point at which the starter is so worn out that a backup would represent an upgrade.
3. Strength of Schedule. Often the backups will get more of the reps against the weaker teams. If the Jets face an opponent that they can beat easily, then they are more likely to be afforded the opportunity to get their backups some reps and rest their starters. Also, they might not want to risk giving the inferior backups some reps against the more dangerous teams. We’ll consider this for each of the four in more detail later on.
4. Situations. Backup linemen are often likely to get reps in short yardage situations. Since there will be more than three – perhaps as many as six – linemen in the game, the backups are more likely to be needed here. In such situations, a one yard gain might represent a failure, even though it would contribute to a low ypc average. That’s where FD/TD rate is a useful statistic. Here we can see that Dixon and Kroul had a worse FD/TD rate than the team as a whole, but Tevaseu’s FD/TD rate was better. Gilbert’s FD/TD rate was zero, but he did have the smallest sample size. The flipside of this is of course that there is a higher percentage chance of a first down or touchdown in a short yardage situation, so that must be taken into account too.
5. Active Role. The success or failure of a play may have absolutely nothing to do with the contribution by any of these guys. So, while it might be a postive sign that some of the numbers look good, that may or may not have been impacted by their contribution. We can look at certain things to try and get a feel for this.
Let’s consider some of these things with reference to each of the four youngsters.
Matt Kroul
Let’s look at the games in which Kroul was involved:
Week One – Baltimore
Baltimore isn’t a bad rushing team. They had the league’s 10th leading rusher in Ray Rice, but ended up 14th in the NFL and were held to just 1.5 per carry in this one, with no big plays.
With Kroul in the game, the Ravens picked up just four yards on seven carries. However, they did get one first down and one touchdown with him in the game. This 29% success rate with Kroul in the game was much higher than the 6% success rate for the game as a whole. In fact, they didn’t register any other first downs on the ground.
Week Fourteen – Miami
Miami was down in 21st for rushing offense in 2010. In this game, the Jets held them to 3.2 yards per carry and no big plays.
With Kroul in, Miami fared slightly worse, averaging 2.9 yards per carry on 13 plays. However, they did record two first downs. Again these were the only two rushing first downs they achieved on the day.
Other Games
Kroul was on the field for one rushing play in three other games (at Miami and Cleveland and at home to Houston). These three plays gained just three yards, although one was a two yard touchdown for the Texans.
Jarron Gilbert
Gilbert’s numbers were impressive, but must be taken with a pinch of salt, as they all came in the Week 17 “prepostseason” clash against the Bills. The Bills were held to just 2.1 yards per carry on the day and, although they were only down in 18th for rushing, they had a banged up offensive line and did not seem motivated at all for that last game. He also has the smallest sample size, with just 10 carries, although the fact three of these went for a loss, including one where he made the tackle himself, is noteworthy.
Marcus Dixon
Dixon also saw most of his action in that Bills game, although he did see some action against the Steelers and Bears. You may be surprised to learn that the Steelers were only 11th in rushing and the Bears were only 22nd, despite all the problems Rashard Mendenhall and Matt Forte gave the Jets. Dixon was only in for one rushing play against the Steelers (a two yard touchdown), but was in for four plays against the Bears. On those four plays, the Bears gained nine yards (2.3 ypc). For the game as a whole, the Bears averaged five yards per carry, although this was inflated by two long runs by Forte. Excluding those two, the Bears were held to 3.0 yards per carry. The FD/TD rate for the Bears was higher than usual (26%), but that included two of the four plays (50%) Dixon was in for.
In the Bills game, Buffalo gained 31 yards on 15 carries with Dixon in the game (2.1 ypc), although they only got one first down (7%).
Dixon was the only one of the four to be credited with a missed tackle, although it did not lead to a big play.
Martin Tevaseu
Tevaseu was not activated until the postseason, so saw his only action in the AFC Title Game, again versus the 11th ranked Steelers rushing attack. Pittsburgh ran the ball pretty well again, averaging 4.2 yards. With Tevaseu in the game, they were held to just 2.2 yards per carry. The numbers were boosted by three big plays, including one (an 11-yarder) with Tevaseu in the game. If you exclude the other two big plays from the numbers, the Steelers only gained 2.9 yards per carry, but this still exceeds the number with Tevaseu in the game.
The Steelers picked up a first down or touchdown on 17% of their carries with Tevaseu in the game, but this was lower than their overall number of 23%.
Comparisons
In order to further evaluate this quartet, it is interesting to look at the numbers for two of the other backup linemen the Jets used last season. Vernon Gholston is another youngster, who has since been released. Part of the reason for that is financially driven, but did any of the guys they retained have better potential than him anyway? At the other end of the scale, Howard Green is a veteran journeyman. Would the Jets have benefited from a better contribution if they had retained him, or did any of the youngsters perform any better than him, in addition to what they bring to the table in terms of future potential?
Vernon Gholston
Carries – 131
Yards – 357
Yards per Carry – 2.7
FD/TD rate – 18%
Big Plays – Four (3%)
Gholston played every week, other than in the postseason, so he didn’t necessarily benefit from playing against easier teams as much as the other young reserves did. Although his yards per carry number is higher, it still represents a lower figure than the overall numbers for the team and this could be an example of the numbers tending towards the norm as a result of having him play more. His FD/TD rate is the same as the number for the team as a whole and his big play rate was slightly lower.
Like Dixon, Gholston had one missed tackle, but it did not lead to a big gain. In fact, two of the four big gains with him in the game came about as a result of missed tackles by Dwight Lowery, otherwise the numbers with him in would have been significantly better. (Excluding those two plays brings it down to 2.4 ypc).
Something else that is interesting to note is that Gholston’s numbers over the first half of the year were much better. He only had three games where the other team averaged over 4.0 yards with him in and all three were in the second half of the year. We can speculate as to why that might be, but it’s almost impossible to assess – Was he worn down? Did defenses figure out and exploit a weakness in his game? Did his motivation slide as it became apparent he wasn’t going to permanently crack the starting rotation? Here’s the breakdown:
YPC – First 8 games (2.1), Second 8 games (3.3)
FD/TD rate – First 8 (15%), Second 8 (20%)
Big Play Rate – First 8 (0%), Second 8 (10%)
Basically, the numbers with Gholston in were much better than the overall numbers (and he seemingly outperformed the other four young backups) in the first half of the season, but that was reversed in the second half, with only the ypc number being lower (and then only by 0.1 yards).
Let’s now briefly consider Green’s numbers and whether he was any kind of an upgrade over the others:
Howard Green
Carries – 15
Yards – 37
Yards per Carry – 2.5
FD/TD rate – 7%
Big Plays – None
Again this is a small sample size, with all but two carries coming from Week Three’s game in Miami. However, the ypc average with him is slightly higher than for the other reserves, but the FD/TD rate is low and they didn’t give up any big plays with him in there. On this basis, Green didn’t appear to represent a significant upgrade over any of the other youngsters, so it was probably the correct decision to go with some younger players that might have a chance to contribute into the future.
I decided to look at how the run defense performed as a unit with each of these guys in there, rather than just look at statistics such as tackle numbers, because that gives a good indication of whether putting them in the game makes the team worse or better. However, we should not ignore the tackle statistics altogether, as these can indicate whether a lineman is just doing his job and taking on blockers (which is fine) or is going above and beyond to shed blocks or chase runners down. Here are those numbers, for whatever they’re worth:
Gholston – 8 (in 141 running plays)
Dixon – 3 (19 running plays)
Kroul – 3 (23 running plays)
Gilbert – 2 (12 running plays)
Green – 1 (16 running plays)
Tevaseu – 0 (12 running plays)
In order to get a better idea of where these players made an active contribution to stopping the run, or made a mistake to enable a run to be successful, we can consider PFF’s ratings for run defense. The sample sizes are, of course, small, but these reveal that Tevaseu has the best grade. Gholston is the only other one with a positive grade, although Gilbert’s is -0.1. Of the three with a negative grade, Green’s is comfortably the worst, providing further evidence that his experience did not make him any kind of an upgrade over the youngsters while he was a Jet (and despite his motivation-fuelled performance for the Packers after the Jets dumped him, his grade did not improve in Green Bay).
Pass Rushing
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll start with a simple hypothesis. If any of the four youngsters have any promise as a pass rusher, they certainly didn’t show it during the season, but that’s not necessarily cause for concern, because – other than Shaun Ellis and Trevor Pryce – the Jets neither expect nor receive much pass rush from their front three.
Dixon, Gilbert, Kroul and Tevaseu certainly didn’t give us much to work with in terms of pass rushing numbers in 2010. They combined for one sack, zero hits and zero pressures, albeit in only 52 pass rush attempts. That’s rendered even less impressive when you consider that the sack (by Dixon) was a coverage sack where Jay Cutler held the ball for NINE seconds.
Comparing again with Vernon Gholston, he did have a slightly better impact as a pass rusher, recording four pressures and a hit, albeit in more than twice as many pass rush attempts (108) as the four of them combined. In 26 pass rush attempts, Howard Green had one QB hit and no other pressures.
Any of these players might fill in for Mike DeVito, who himself offers little-to-nothing in terms of pass rush pressure. In 302 pass rush attempts, he recorded just three hits and four pressures (with no sacks). This included just one pressure (and no hits) after Week Four. Having said that, he did have 13 pressures (one hit, one sack) in fewer pass rush attempts last year, so he has shown slightly better – but hardly impossible to replicate – production in the past.
Sione Pouha recorded two sacks and seven pressures during the regular season, so although he produced better than Mike DeVito, he was not a pass rushing force like Kris Jenkins before him. Tevaseu, who is most likely to see action backing up Pouha at the nose, hasn’t shown much in the way of pass rushing prowess so far, but isn’t likely to be counted on to produce much, either. The DeVito-at-nose experiment is also likely to continue.
Other than Dixon’s dubious sack, there are some other possible positive signs from the defensive linemen in terms of being able to bring some pressure. Matt Kroul had three sacks in preseason, although two were against the Eagles, who were resting their starters. Jarron Gilbert, then with Chicago, had two sacks in preseason before being cut. Also, while we shouldn’t underestimate how difficult it will be to overcome his torn achilles tendon, we should not forget about Ropati Pitoitua, who saw limited action during the 2009 regular season with some positive early returns that included three pressures in 25 pass rush attempts.
Conclusions
The numbers seem to indicate that the Jets have a deep stable of youngsters, any of whom seem to be capable of filling in for a play here or there without the team suffering a drop-off, at least in the short term. The four guys – five if you include Pitoitua and perhaps more if they pick anyone up in the offseason, or even re-sign Gholston – are all closely bunched, which can only lead to a healthy competition from which hopefully an impact player could emerge. That might be a long shot, but even if the ceiling for whichever of these players makes the team next year is “dependable backup”, that still adds value to a team whose financial situation requires them to seek such contributions from low-cost youngsters.
Of the four, I remain most impressed by Tevaseu’s performance. That he could make his debut in such a big game without the team suffering any drop-off with him in, is more impressive than the achievements of Dixon and Gilbert, which were mostly against the Bills in a meaningless contest. Had he not broken his hand in preseason, Tevaseu might have been able to make the team sooner, which could have prevented Pouha from breaking down at the end of the year. Matt Kroul, whose special team contributions last year might give him the inside track on the final lineman spot, also posted solid numbers against some decent teams. I remain high on Pitoitua too, although nothing can be taken for granted after his serious injury in preseason.
The CBA situation is extremely unfortunate, because the cancellation of OTA’s is only going to slow down this process. This gives us yet another reason to hope that all gets sorted soon, as well as the fact that the camp battle is going to be fun to watch. Let’s hope it happens.
11 Responses to BGA: Depth on the Defensive Line?
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I think one of your next BGAs should look at the Jets struggles in the first quarter this season and whether it was more an issue of scheme or execution
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Bent says:
Mel – it’s a great suggestion, but something that could only truly be answered by film study rather than looking at the raw numbers. However, I will be investigating things such as dropped catches soon and will consider those in the context of whether they happened early in the game, or at key moments.
From all the BGA’s I did during the season, I’d say that it was almost always an error in execution that ended drives early in games, rather than a bad playcall. However, I also feel like they deliberately open games conservatively and are happy to punt the ball if they are confident their defense will be able to gain them a territorial advantage, so the scheme definitely had an impact.
Perhaps if they’d opened up more aggressively, then they wouldn’t have to rely on “safe” plays that require good execution to extend drives. I can imagine why they didn’t though.
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Just to add to the thought that it was probably more Rexs philosophy (more often than not a guy that opts to kick the ball off all the time is going to play it safe offensively) than something related to Schottenheimer is the fact that under Mangini the Jets were always a significantly better 1st half team, on offense, than 2nd half team. Same coordinator and plays with a more talented lineup in 2010.
I think Rex just likes to go with the thought of “lets not do anything dumb early and lose the game”. Conservative play early rarely loses a team a game, whereas a game with a mistakeprone QB going guns blazing can probably be lost in the first 10 minutes.
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There’s nothing wrong with “dependable backup.” Every team needs those and so do we. If one or more of these guys can solidify their position as dependable back ups that would be great. If any of them became more than that it would be a huge bonus. As Bent says this is important for financial reasons. Aside from just that, developing the back ups in this way allows us to continue to maneuver using our mid and late round picks in order to get top talent in key positions at the top of the draft or through trades. I hope we continue to have very late 1st round picks (it means we’re winning a lot of games). We only maintain draft flexibility if we can bring consistently bring in cheap, young guys and develop them as roster back ups and hopefully get lucky with a couple.
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Bent, great food for thought.
Can you take a look at, compare and contrast the Jets lame offensive games (possibly including the games where the O was terrible for 3/4+ of the game) with the games where the O performed better?
Surely, that topic of execution vs. scheme will come up and it might be interesting to analyze whether the same kinds of plays were used in similar situations, their effectiveness (or lack thereof), who the culprits were if execution was indeed at fault (or scheme for that matter) and how much the opposing defenses played into all this.
Apologies if you already did this and I somehow missed it.
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Bent says:
Okay – there might be something to work with by combining your suggestion with Mel’s.
Next week will definitely be about the offense.
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I’d agree that execution is a lot of the problem and everyone has gone round and round on this but poor execution over time becomes a symptom, not a cause. I don’t think Schott gets enough credit for the running game and the way our Offence has performed in the playoffs. The most difficult part about the evaluation of the offence is that Schott is not a horrible coach and the position itself is always going to political because of how many calls/plays have to be ran and the many options available at the time. Over time though the only thing an OC can stand on is his success. 5 years and he has very little to stand on. I think a change would be better for both parties.
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This is all bull****. Ther is no talen in that grup of players. The Jets better draft somebody good or they going to be in trobule.
Yea mtv is the man I sure hope the nfl doesn’t have a rash. Of injuries and hamstring puls due to the lockout