BGA: Jets at Dolphins
This analysis is based on watching and re-watching TV footage. As such, it is not always possible to accurately determine everything that was going on. However, every effort has been made to ensure that the information below is as complete and correct as possible.
Coming up after the jump, an analysis of yesterday’s season-ending loss to the Dolphins, including details of Santonio Holmes’ disappointing display within a disappointing display, Kyle Wilson’s rough afternoon and my thoughts on the Bart Scott rumors. Remember, if you want me to look into anything in particular or go into more detail, leave a comment and I’ll include it in BGA Extra, which will follow in a few days.
So, as we expected, the season is over. The Jets probably weren’t going to make the playoffs even if they won, which they should have, but didn’t anyway. The Jets ended the season the way they played throughout – by looking good in spurts, but undoing all that good work with costly individual errors.
The nature of the way the season ended, though, is extremely concerning. We’ve seen the Jets play well in the first half but not quite convert it into a big enough lead to carry their flat second half performance before several times (Oakland, Denver, Giants), but the extent to which everything unravelled at the end of yesterday’s game was jarring. I did not like what I saw at the end there. I said two weeks ago that this team was broken – what we saw yesterday looks dangerously close to irreparable.
We’ll have all offseason to dwell on that – there was a game yesterday, so let’s recap where it was lost.
Quarterback
As I said last week, I was half-hoping they’d reveal that Sanchez played through some injury that caused some of his issues over the course of this season. Over the last few weeks I feel like I’ve soured on him, but if there’s a reason why he ended the season in such uninspiring fashion, I’m all ears. Injuries, receivers not trying, a disconnect between his skillset and the gameplan? Whatever the reason, Sanchez seemed to be trending in the right direction a month or so ago, then ended the season with three bad performances in a row.
He did lead one good drive in the first half (and another against a prevent defense late in the game) and he even had a QB rating of over 100 when blitzed, but it was his interceptions that proved most costly. One saw him try to flip the ball over the top of Randy Starks to LaDainian Tomlinson just before half time. Even though it was an athletic play by Starks, that was an awful throw with no chance of getting over him. The second one was a bit of a freak play, as he lofted the ball to apparent safety and it landed on Nick Mangold’s back enabling Starks to grab it easily. However, the announcers suggested he should have just took the sack there and were probably right. Finally, it was inaccuracy that led to his red zone pass late in the game being not just intercepted, but also returned into range for the game-clinching field goal. He might also have been better served waiting a split second longer to allow his man to get more separation so he could lead him with the pass.
Had he only made two of these three mistakes, then the Jets probably would have won the game, but Sanchez has been making one too many mistakes all season long and that’s why, this year, he’ll get a longer period of time to rest whatever physical damage was inflicted on him over the course of the season.
Sanchez was much better in the red zone this year and much better throwing short passes. This season, I’d like to see him work at improving everything else. However, he needs to reinforce the short passing and red zone work, because those things he seemed to have overcome in the past – like protecting the ball, staring down his first read and reluctance to throw downfield – seem to have suffered a relapse.
That’s where I think the lockout hurt Sanchez. He needed a lot of work and fine-tuning and this offseason just wasn’t long enough to achieve that. The coaching staff should have realized this, tempered their expectations and planned accordingly.
Offensive Line
You almost didn’t need to watch this game to know how the offensive line performed, because for each of them this game was a microcosm for the season as a whole:
Nick Mangold – Dominant in the running game, albeit not as dominant as he has been in the past. Almost perfect in pass protection, with his one pressure surrendered coming on a screen pass where his assignment was to let his man go and get out in front of the receiver, but the pressure came because Tomlinson was held up in the backfield.
Matt Slauson – Inconsistent, as ever. Very good in pass protection, where he did not surrender a single pressure following last week’s struggles, but disappointing as a run blocker. It was a career-day for him as a receiver, though!
Brandon Moore – Solid, but unremarkable, giving up just one pressure and not having much impact in the running game.
D’Brickashaw Ferguson – Hugely disappointing, getting beaten three times in pass protection, including one that saw Jason Taylor of all people beat him to force an interception, no real impact in the running game and a couple of penalties.
Wayne Hunter – Initially held up pretty well in pass protection but was ultimately credited with four pressures allowed, albeit no hits/sacks. Was pressure free until the penultimate play of the first half, but got beaten outside a couple of times in the second half, although Sanchez was able to get the throw off each time. Was also poor in the running game, just not sustaining his blocks long enough and had one false start in an all-round rough performance to round out his rough year.
Even Vladimir Ducasse and Caleb Schlauderaff’s performances were symptomatic of their season as a whole. They were in for five snaps combined and a non-factor.
Much has been made of the offensive line performance this year, but they do rank in the top half on both FO and PFF for pass protection, so they aren’t THAT bad. However, it’s a huge drop-off from best in the league to barely above average and that’s a drop-off which cannot be solely explained by the drop-off from Damien Woody to Wayne Hunter. Hopefully this was just a down year for Ferguson in particular, because the Jets didn’t make him one of the highest paid tackles in the NFL to play like an average one. Next year, the Jets desperately need an average tackle, to play on the right side…but they need Ferguson to not be average. He has to be better than that.
The penalties were killer, including four on one drive in the second quarter (all false starts). The Jets started with the ball on the 18 and drove 88 yards. That should translate to a touchdown, but the 20 penalty yards meant that they only got as close as the 14 and had to settle for a field goal. Later on, Mulligan’s 15-yard penalty was the difference between field goal range and a punt. Remember, they did only lose by two.
Running Backs
The Jets actually ran for 129 yards this week, with Shonn Greene going over 1,000 on the season and Tomlinson going into fifth place all-time.
It was a nice performance by Tomlinson, with 79 yards on 15 touches. They did a good job of keeping him fresh this year, but unfortunately, they won’t be in the postseason to reap the benefits. Although he did well with the ball in his hands, I did count three occasions where he could have done a better job in pass protection, although he was not credited with a pressure surrendered. I think he has at least another year left in the tank, but I don’t expect him to return. We’ll see.
Greene – who again had less playing time than Tomlinson – finished up the year with 1,054 yards at 4.2 yards per carry, which isn’t bad given his slow start (3.1 ypc over the first four games, 4.5 ypc thereafter). He also added over 200 receiving yards on 30 catches, much better than in his first two years – although he did drop a pass for the third week in a row after only having two in the first 13 games.
John Conner really made strides towards the end of the year and I’d have to say that this was one of his better games of the year, although admittedly most of his best blocks came in the early stages.
Joe McKnight was a non-factor on offense again, although he did nearly break a kickoff return. His impact since the Denver game: 22 yards rushing on eight carries, five catches for 48 yards and 12 kickoff returns with only one longer than 30 yards and a 23.2 yard average.
Josh Baker was in on three plays with no real impact.
Receivers
Before we get to Santonio Holmes, let’s address all the other receivers. We must at least give Dustin Keller some credit. Last week he had eight catches for 77 yards, but on 16 targets. This week, he only had seven catches for 45 yards, but considering he was only thrown to seven times, that’s pretty good. He also showed some good moves after the catch and got in the end zone. His blocking still leaves a lot to be desired though.
Also getting in the end zone was Patrick Turner. He was only in for 13 snaps, but that was another sign that he may be someone that they look to hang onto next year as a low cost 4th or 5th option.
On the face of it, Plaxico Burress didn’t have a bad afternoon by his standards, catching four of five passes thrown his way, for three first downs. However two of those came against the prevent defense on the last drive. Although he was great for the red zone offense this year, Burress actually had just one touchdown in the last five weeks. He only had four drops all season though and his catch rate of 50% is actually better than his career mark.
Jeremy Kerley was a revelation, catching four passes for 71 yards, running for 16 yards on an end-around, throwing for 41 yards on a Seminole play and breaking tackles on each of his punt returns to pick up 26 more yards. In total, Kerley contributed 154 yards on eight touches and provided an offense devoid of any athletic spark with a dynamic edge. Kerley definitely looks like a keeper and one of the few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball this year.
Matthew Mulligan was the recipient of Kerley’s 41-yard pass, the longest of his career and tied for the second longest by a Jet this year (Keller had a 41-yarder a few weeks ago and Tomlinson had a 74-yarder in Oakland). Other than that, he set the edge well once, but otherwise had a miserable afternoon with three penalties – one on a facemask as he was beaten to the inside – and a couple of pressures given up in pass protection. He actually graded out positively as a run blocker, although he has fallen off from where he was the 2nd-rated run blocking TE in the NFL on PFF a few weeks ago. He is now 8th after three poor performances in a row entering this week. More importantly, he’s 10th worst overall, 5th worst for pass blocking and has the 3rd most penalties. He even blew a block on special teams and probably got away with a hold. Here’s someone where any positives he brings to the table are wiped out three-fold by his mistakes. The Jets must upgrade here.
Which brings us to Santonio Holmes. I don’t want to pass judgment on his actions, nor do I wish to defend him. There will be plenty of time for that as the facts emerge. Statistically, this has been a terrible year for him, especially considering his salary. There is plenty of truth to the comments over the course of the season that Holmes is double-covered a lot and as a result the Jets don’t look for him as often as they do certain other players. However, Holmes talked about wanting to make the Hall of Fame when he signed here and you don’t get enshrined into Canton for being a decoy. Would more weapons mean he was open more, or would that just mean he saw even less of the ball? After all they did target him six or more times in nine of the 16 games, but he only caught five or more passes twice. All of these questions will have to be considered by the Jets going forward.
While watching the game, I noticed a couple of lazy blocks by Holmes, who didn’t finish the block and keep going until the whistle. I wondered if this was a sign of frustration at the time and when he lost his, uh, cool, I figured I’d go back and see whether he was lazily jogging through routes, routinely whiffing on blocks and not looking back for the ball. I expected to see signs that the meltdown was coming.
Surprisingly, however, this was not the case. From what I could see he was fully engaged early on, celebrated (albeit mooted) with Sanchez after the first score and did seem to be sprinting off the line. What’s more interesting is that although I noted a couple of missed blocks in real time, instead of – as I suspected – finding more when I went to the tape, I actually found that he was working hard as a blocker and made two of the better blocks I’ve seen from him all season. One was a reach block as even though he started off being played to the inside, he got across and managed to get a kickout block on his man. The other saw him come from wide to block down on a defensive end and set the edge well.
In terms of blocking, he is actually dead last in the NFL for blocking by wide receivers. You may recall Braylon Edwards was near the bottom last year and that was at least partially attributable to the fact they often tried to get him to make a key block in the slot with a higher-than-usual degree of difficulty (or even motioning onto the edge of the line) and he blew a high proportion of those. They do sometimes do these things with Holmes too, but I can certainly recall him blowing some blocks on the outside and downfield that must have contributed to his grade.
As the game progressed, I expected to see Holmes’ shoulders slouching as he ran route after route without getting the ball. However, this was not noticeably the case. I don’t think it’s accurate to say they didn’t call any plays for him – there were at least two where Sanchez was looking his way but then pressure was upon him and he couldn’t get the throw off and at least another two or three where Sanchez looked for him initially and then checked down rather than (presumably) throwing into double coverage. They did throw to him once, but Holmes slipped and appealed for a pass interference flag to no avail. Having said that, a very high percentage of the passes were of the short, immediate variety, so the ball was thrown without even a glance in Holmes’ direction and before Holmes had even looked back for the ball.
Earlier in the year (I wish I could find it), I suggest that a good blueprint to beat the Jets would be to continue to double cover Holmes with the hope that eventually he would complain he isn’t getting the ball enough and then Sanchez would be compelled to throw a high-risk pass. So, I guess this is all my fault. Oops.
I feel like repeating – I am no body language expert and have no idea what was being said in the huddle or who was freezing out whom and so on. These are merely my observations from the game film – do with them what you will. I will say that I didn’t like what I saw and expected to find evidence of the rumors he had “quit on the team” or whatever. The fact I didn’t does not mean I am defending his actions.
Defensive Line
In yet another article to file under “We’ve heard that before this year”, the Jets defense performed well most of the day, apart from one major breakdown. This was the 21-play, 95 yard drive on which Miami took the lead in the fourth quarter. On that drive, they had multiple opportunities to shut the door and it just never happened. Brandon Marshall converted a third down with a blatant push-off on Darrelle Revis, then David Harris got hurt, then there were a couple more third down conversions before the Dolphins finally got into the end zone on a third down play that the Jets should have stopped. This means that, despite the loss, there were several players that actually played well. However, there is plenty of blame to go around for some of the breakdowns.
Despite that, not much of the blame can be levied at the defensive line, who closed out a fine season with another leading-from-the-front performance. Sione Pouha, who was a major snub in terms of who the media decided was a Pro Bowl snub, led the line as usual. Pouha didn’t generate any pressure this week, but stuffed four runs and was only moved off his spot once. The Jets MUST re-sign him in my opinion.
If they don’t re-sign him, it will be because they think Kenrick Ellis is the heir apparent at nose tackle. However, at the moment he spends more time at defensive end (often with Mike DeVito at nose) because his speed is more of a weapon than his strength at this stage of his career. Ellis was owned a couple of times early on, but bounced back well to stuff a couple of runs and ended up with a positive grade in 17 snaps. He has a long way to go to reach Pouha’s level though, so hopefully (if Ellis doesn’t get deported), Sione will be around to mentor him for the next few years.
His fellow rookie Muhammed Wilkerson finished off a very solid second half of the year with a strong display, stuffing two runs, including one at the goal line, blowing up one other run and getting one pressure. On the opposite side from him, DeVito stuffed three runs and had a couple of pressures, although he was beaten at the point of attack a couple of times too.
Off the bench, Marcus Dixon and Ropati Pitoitua combined for four pressures and a hit in 37 snaps, but didn’t do much against the run. Overall, all six players had a positive grade and they combined for eight of the 14 pressures generated by the Jets in a disappointing pass-rushing display against a weak line.
Linebackers
In what, if the rumors are true, may prove to be his last game as a Jet, Bart Scott turned in one of his better performances of the year. He was in on several run stops and made some good plays in coverage. As I’ve been noting all season, they simply haven’t had him attacking the line of scrimmage as he has in year’s past and if they’re planning to get rid of him, this suggests they don’t believe he is physically up to that any more. (For what it’s worth, he did attack a lead blocker once right near the end on Sunday, lit him up and redirected the runner who was stuffed for a short gain, so he is still capable).
His role this year has instead involved a lot of disciplined gap-control stuff. To his credit, he’s played it perfectly and there isn’t anyone on the team who carries out his assignment to the letter as consistently as Scott, which is why he still grades out well on the year (10th overall ILB and 6th against the run per PFF). However, there’s no denying it means he has less of a direct impact on the game, especially now he’s being taken out of the game in coverage situations (which, in itself, is curious given that this used to be one of his biggest strengths and that he does have a positive grade in coverage for the year).
Considering his lower snap count (from 84% to 64%) the drop in his tackle numbers from 70 to 58 doesn’t seem that bad and he’s actually had 4.5 sacks this year, after only having one last year. However, the Jets seem ready to move on from him and apparently won’t be on the hook for his whole 2012 salary as previously thought, so perhaps they can afford to do it. I can’t say I like the move though.
I don’t know what Bart’s attitude behind the scenes has been like this year, but I always got the impression he was a good mentor, so I am surprised that they wouldn’t want to keep him on the roster, especially if they’re likely to end up paying him anyway.
Alongside Scott, David Harris turned in a performance befitting of someone that deserves a Pro Bowl position after all. If only he’d played like that all season. Harris did have a good season, but I agreed with the voters that kept him off the Pro Bowl roster, despite his slew of impact plays. On Sunday, he actually didn’t have much impact at all against the run, but did have a great pass breakup and did a good job of limiting some receptions to short gains, including one on a third down to make an impact in the passing game.
Calvin Pace also had a quite day, although he did generate a couple of pressures and had two stops. Jamaal Westerman also had a quiet day, with one pressure and one stop. Aaron Maybin added one pressure, as the Jets pass rush was disappointingly quiet all day. They actually blitzed 15 times and Matt Moore completed ten passes for 77 yards and a score.
Josh Mauga was actually in for 30 snaps as Harris missed 23. He gave up just four yards on three targets in the passing game, but this actually included a first down and a touchdown. Had he not gambled and dived, anticipating a quick pass, he should have been able to stay with Charles Clay pretty easily with Moore running out of room, so that was a very costly error. Mauga did actually lead the team in tackles and had three stops so he did redeem himself somewhat.
Nick Bellore was in for one snap. He ends up fourth in the NFL in terms of special teams tackles. Could he, Mauga or even Mathias Berning be the next Bart Scott? I’m not going to hold my breath.
Defensive Backs
In the secondary, the cornerbacks did a decent job with Revis giving up two first downs (one on the afore-mentioned push-off), but breaking up two passes as well and Cromartie giving up two, but also breaking up one and intercepting another. He was also beaten deep on another pass that was dropped, but this was also a push-off and he looked to be in pretty decent coverage until then. Note: If Jerome Boger and his crew had decided to officiate the Oakland game earlier in the year like this one, the Jets would probably have won their ninth game four weeks ago instead of never.
At safety, Brodney Pool had two awful missed tackles early on, but bounced back with an interception and made a play against the run. Alongside him, Eric Smith only gave up one first down catch but did miss two tackles. He did make a good tackle on third down to force a punt. It’s interesting to hear that Smith played hurt all year. There’s no doubt that affected his performance, but it doesn’t really do much to convince me they shouldn’t look to upgrade that position with almost as much urgency as the right tackle position.
Kyle Wilson had a day to forget, giving up four catches for 38 yards. All four came on the 95-yard drive and three went for first downs, as he seemed to be playing too far off his man. I don’t know if it’s a good or a bad thing that all of those plays happened on the one drive. I guess it’s positive that he posted a shutout the rest of the way and he did get two pressures, but overall his season did go downhill after a promising start.
Donald Strickland was the only Jet with a sack, which is a bit depressing. He only played for 22 snaps and Isaiah Trufant and Marquice Cole played one and six respectively.
Special Teams
TJ Conley had another solid day where he downed a few punts inside the ten, but then had one really short one that only went about 20 yards, so I continue to be underwhelmed by him. Nick Folk made his last field goal of the year, but will it be his last as a Jet? Folk was 9-for-9 before the bye and 10-for-16 after the bye. I wouldn’t mind, but other than Sebastian Janikowski’s 56-yarder in week three, EVERY FIELD GOAL by a Jets’ opponent this year was good, including several team records and career/season bests. I’ll remind you again, they lost by two on Sunday.
Conclusions
Another year ends in disappointment, as they all do, but we’ll keep blindingly clinging to the hope that one day there will be a year that won’t end that way.
We have all off-season to reflect on how the Jets ended up being an 8-8 team and what they’re going to do going forward, but I’d like to end this last BGA of the season by thanking you for your comments and feedback. I always learn more from researching your BGA Extra questions and comments than I do from the film study itself, so thanks for helping to make this column what it is today – a colossal waste of time!
I can’t believe I made it through the whole season without anyone saying “tl;dr”!
Remember, if there’s anything else you’d like me to comment upon or go into more detail about, let me have your suggestions in the comments and I’ll respond in BGA Extra later in the week.
98 Responses to BGA: Jets at Dolphins
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Bent says:
The responsibility and accountability belong to Rex Ryan, a guy who had no clue all year long, and had completely lost control of the team before the starting whistle of the Phins game. the locker room meltdown was already in place.
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Longshot says:
Very Correct!
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Johnnyjetson says:
I dont see pace coming back next season….what is the caphit or saving if the jets cut him and how do you compare pace to a guy like anthony spencer who is a free agent.
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JayM says:
On July 29, 2011 Pace renegotiated his contract to defer $2 million of salary in 2011 and 2012 until 2013 in return for a full guarantee of his 2011 and 2012 base salaries. Updated base salaries are $855,000(2011), $3,085,000(2012), and $5,810,000(2013)
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Brendan says:
Yeah, and he actually had a solid year this year. He was healthy again (he was clearly hurt the whole year last year) and played very well as an everydown strong-side backer.
Pace finished the year as the 11th ranked 3-4 OLB in the league (PFF), with good grades in coverage and run stopping. I was actually surprised to see that QBs only had a 52 QB rating throwing at him this year.
Obviously he isn’t an elite passer, but he was 13th in QB pressures from the OLB spot, so that’s not bad. They need a bonafide stud across from Pace and I think Pace would be more effective. The Jets don’t have a pass rusher worth doubling right now.
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So brendan lets say we keep pace what about anthony spencer on the other side. Resign maybin and draft upshaw. That now would give us 4 pass rushers we could put on the field on 3 rd down. Sounds good to me…whatcha think??
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Depends what Spencer is asking for. He’s probably going to look for a deal like Pace got, on a team with no pass rushers. He’s good, but he’s not elite.
As for signing a pass rusher and drafting another, I’m definitely for that. Throw 4 guys out there on 3rd down that can collapse the pocket and pressure the QB and Rex’s coverage schemes (which are very good) will be all available.
Throw an athletic cover safety in the mix, and Rex can run his trap coverage schemes that Ed Reed feasted on QBs with.
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Ive watched alot of cowboys games and alot of the sacks that ware gets is from the pressure that spencer brings on the one side and when the qb starts to scramble or move around in the pocket ware is there to get the sack. So even if spencers sack numbers arent off the charts he does put alot of pressure on the qb. Its also not about the actual sack but about the pressure you put on the qb and force him into mistakes.
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Well looking at his #’s, he had the same amount of sacks/Qb hits as Pace, with 8 more pressures. He’s terrible in coverage and solid against the pass. He sounds like a strongside backer to me.
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This is also very dependent on what kind of $ he wants. If he’s reasonable, he could be a good all-around LB like Pace, which would help to improve the run defense again. But if he wants big time pass rusher $? No thanks.
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MEL31602 says:
I’m not sure if you can tell this by looking at the tape, but could you break down the three plays Wilson gave up on the 21 play drive and see if you can come up with a reason he was playing so far off his man? Perhaps that was what the defense called for in those situations? My dad was screaming at the tv during that drive about how awful Wilson is and I still think he is decent but I’m not sure how to defend his performance on that drive.
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Wilson lacks football instincts and makeup speed, doesn’t diagnose when the ball is coming. Is he as horrible as I always claim? No. But he isn’t good either, and is not a starter in this League despite being a 1st round draft pick,
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tragicjet says:
Dear Jets organization
Trade Schitty, Sanchez, Hunter, Mulligan, B.Scott, C. Pace, Smitty, Leonhard, and Holmes for Norv Turner, Philip Rivers, and Vincent Jackson. Thank you for your cooperation and God bless.
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Targeting Santonio Holmes ony once during the most important game of the season is just ridiculous. How does schotty sit in his office at night and come up with a game plan that doesnt even feature using his best player?
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How many passes thrown that were under 10 yards, can you include in-completions too.
Thank you for your work in doing these BGA’s throughout the season.
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How many passes thrown by Sanchez, that were under 10 yards, can you include in-completions too.
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How many missed tackles does scott have on the season?
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Antwan says:
If you could make 3 moves as this teams GM this offseason, what would they be (draft picks count).
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ssx tricky says:
bent:
Is it me or does it seem like every time we are on a long extended drive at some point we always call a time out, or commit a penalty, or something like that disrupts the flow of the drive? I mean i can remember 4 or 5 times we would be driving and everything would be working with the offence and then boom we gotta call a time out or we get called for a false start. -
Howdy Doody says:
What does BGA stand for.
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Neal says:
Bent’s game analysis?
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Yeah, but it used to be Bent Gets Analitical until Bent realized that one of the browsers was truncating the “itical” Part and it was an embarrassing result for Bent. :)
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levi says:
Bent gets analytical.
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Thanks.
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Bent,
Are Tanny and Rex praising Schotty so a team will get him as HC so they can avoid paying him 3 mill to fire? Is that the the thinking here?
Also, how many explosive plays did the Jets have this season? Do you think this can be fixed over the offseason if the WR corps change yet again?
Thanks for all your work! It is a pleasure to read your words every week!
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Mike Shanahan says:
Great analysis on WR Holmes.
The film doesn’t lie.
That is why we have the NYC media idiots.Holmes likely opened his mouth – he was pissed off at the OC, pissed off at Wayne Hunter for poor pass protection, and pissed off at Sanchez for throwing 3 INTs in a must win game against a 5-10 team.
Holmes is a warrior… they need more guys like him, not less.
And oh yeah… Schotty is a f–king moron.
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joeyboy79 says:
+1 If you have a diva you have to feed him and then it will pay big rewards but T downgraded the team with the line and wrs, namely BE and it put too much heat on holmes as two deep threats are necessary. Last season it worked well. Holmes just got frustrated and spoke. The root cause is management not holmes.
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3 Moves
1) Fire Schotty & hire Passing Game Guru for Sanchez development
2) Upgrade RT
3) Draft or Sign Pass Rushing 3-4 OLB -
Le' Sean Roberts says:
If believe that if Rex Ryan was still making the defensive plays There would be no Bart Scott issue. Mike Pettine is soft and clueless. Anyone on that defensive coaching staff should know by now that we don’t have delete pass rushers, so soft and scared reads would not work. Blitzing did the job. Observe the Texans….their style makes up for a defense where you have to account for particular players. That big run Steve Slaton had to mid field….that was a dope call. You see a tight power formation, but they drop off into zone. That 21 play drive the Dolphins had summed up Pettine’s credibility. Belichick is happy that Rex isn’t calling the defense anymore.
The offense is linear….basically you react to what you see in front of you with great confidence. There’s nothing subtle nor intricate about it with the players to acquire some edge. I still don’t understand that play against Baltimore….say that interior stunt-blitz; somebody should have recognised that the CB will be playing tight near the line of scrimmage. Why would there be a flat route. That was so college football. Etc,…………………-
“The offense is linear….”from the perspetive of the defense.
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“The offense is linear….”from the perspective of the defense.
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Prof. Mike says:
As always, thanks for doing this.
I know this isn’t a NYJ v. Mia question, but from what you have seen this year do you think that Moore could move outside to tackle the way that Woody did a few years ago? Considering how good Moore was pass protecting this year and with the up-the-gut running style the Jets have combined with the fact that at #16 there are a couple of NFL ready G’s (DeCastro from Stanford and Glenn from Georgia) it seems as if that might be a great way to upgrade the pass protection both short and long-term.
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Draft needs: CUT DUCASSE; OFFENSIVE TACKLE. SAFTIES, RUSH LINEBACKERS, A BALANCED TIGHT END, ANOTHER BLEEPING RUNNING BACK. Right now we need all of our draft picks.
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We also need some good FA moves like RT who can step right in, and from what I hear ,the draft is not too deep in a covering safety. Also, there are some solid RBs that are on the market along with WR. I would focus on the draft with an olineman,and the rest all defensive needs.
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Also, I am curious if the pass rush while blitzing was successful this year? It seems as if the athleticism (or, rather, lack thereof) of our safeties was exposed because we were unable to consistently pressure the quarterback giving the receivers just a little bit more time to separate or find the hole in the zone. Maybe we could live with the Smith/Leonhard/Pool combo if we had another guy like Pace on the other side (not that finding one is an easy task)? It seemed as if the defense blitzed fewer guys this season and that when they did they just didn’t get there, though, as you have pointed out before, when a commenter usually says that something always happens the opposite is usually true. Thanks again.
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juunit says:
What’s the meaning of life?
Ok, but seriously, if you hadn’t included your opinion on both Scott and Holmes, I would’ve told you this whole BGA was just a waste of your time.
PS… I’m not religious, but I’m going to pray every night that they don’t cut Scott. And man, whenever Scott does retire, I hope like hell he comes back to us as a coach.
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1sttime/longtime says:
Bent you have to put a stop to this. some of the people are not Jets fan on the blog.if you not a jets fan get the H*ll of this blog.I’m sick of you people talking ****.we had a bad year so what we will get better. Santonio Holmes is a good WR and Jeremy Kerley look good trader Mike will get us A big and fats WR.our D-line is young and will only get better in time. remember what D-line look like lasts year. we will get a new RT.good teams miss the playoffs sometimes. The Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t make the playoffs in 2009 and the next year they made it to the big show. so lets take this Draft pick and get better. IMO i want to trad up and and get Blackmon.I’ll gave a 1st next year a 2nd this year and next year for him. In REX I TRUST GO JETS!!!!!some of you people sound like pats fans go to hell!!!!
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Are there any players on the team now that can realistically be traded for decent draft picks?
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___fense says:
Did anyone else see that field? Players on both sides were sliding like crazy. It seemed liked like almost every play, someone slipped and fell, making the play longer or shorter than it should have been.
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It felt like Rex’s defense was a little weak this year, especially with the safety play against good QBs. BUT Football Outsiders has the NY Jets defense ranked #2 overall, #2 against the Pass, and #4 against the Run. Only Baltimore’s defense is ranked higher overall and higher against the Pass.
And the defense played well in Miami. Sanchez turned the ball over 3 times on check down INTs (Sanchez must lead the league in this crap) and yet the defense held them to 3 FGs:
INT sets up drive (2 plays, 0 yards) 58 yard FG
INT sets up drive (4 plays, 3 yards) 40 yard FG
INT sets up drive (4 plays, 9 yards) 44 yard FGMeanwhile the Schotty Offense was ranked 21st in the league despite having solid weapons in Holmes, Keller, and Burress. Clearly Holmes and Burress were frustrated ALL SEASON by the poor QB play and the f–king moron Offensive Coordinator.
Can’t blame Holmes for going off in the meetings or trying to call out his guys to step up in the big game. Every leader on that offense should have been pissed off — LOSING IS NOT ACCEPTABLE with this type of talent. And losing to crap teams is insane! If Jacksonville doesn’t hire Schotty, Rex needs to force Woody Johnson to swallow the contract and fire Schotty. You can’t move forward with this f–king moron and the kid needs a Passing Game Guru to coach him up from scratch.
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BigBear says:
Bent:
As always, we really appreciate your efforts. As you go back to evaluate Sanchez for both this game and the season, please look at the short passing game. I feel like Sanchez throws more passes where (i) back/receiver is not even expecting ball or turns at last second with no realistic chance of catching the ball, (ii) is thrown inaccurately, (iii) thrown with no touch. It kills drives and drives me crazy. I swear that with a little more consistency in these short passes his completion percentage could be 5-8 points higher with a “normal” short passing completion. I cant tell whether he and the back/WR are reading situations differently or just on different pages. My impression is that his intermediate game is excellent and deep game is OK – but that his short game is seriously subpar.
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CHECKING THE TAPE
How many times was Holmes single covered? Why didn’t the ball get to him? Did Sanchez make a bad read? Did the O-line breakdown? Did Sanchez see a better opportunity?
There is NO way that a talent like Holmes gets shutout w/o Bad QB play and a f–king moron Off Coordinator.
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Clean Sanchez says:
Maybe this has no answer but when Sanchez threw the red zone INT, why did Keller not tackle the guy at the twenty? He didn’t even try.
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Jets Phan says:
Sanchez made a nice tackle on that play & showed good effort catching up to the ball carrier. Maybe Smith should review the tape of that play to see how it should be done.
Bent, many thanks for all the effort you put into this!
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adam says:
I noticed this also and was going crazy when I saw that. If Keller would’ve tackled him that would’ve made the Dolphins start way out of field goal range. Season on the line and don’t attempt to tackle!!!!!
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Shoot I forgot this is the last BGA. Thanks.
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Bent says:
You’ll still get a BGA Extra.
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Pat says:
Have you noticed a change in Sanchez’s demeanor this year? His first 2 seasons it seemed he was upbeat celebrating more and chasing his receivers downfield after a completion to congratulate them. I don’t remember seeing that much if at all this year, and I remember quotes from him saying he needed to go out and have fun.
Do you think he subdued his emotions on purpose? Or could it have been locker room trouble, more pressure from being a captain, ect? I feel like that was a big part of who he was and being miserable contributes to him playing badly.
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revisfan says:
the whole offense seemed as if they couldnt wait for the season to be over. they had no spark all season and i dont think they have faith in schotty or sanchez and neither of them got the offense fired up.
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tish says:
This last game of the season should be used as the measuring stick for evaluating who you want to go to war with. After watching the film, who didn’t play their ass off? Who missed tackles that must be made? Who missed blocks that must be made? Who dropped passes that must be caught? Etc.
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Bob P says:
Bent, just a note to say thanks again for your hard work. Let’s hope there are a lot more positives to write about next season.
Happy New Year!
Cheers,
Bob -
WOJF says:
Q1- Wilson, did he improve statistically this year? Where is he ranked oveall at CB, and separately at nickle if they do such a thing?
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Q2- Assuming Holmes is gone (there is no way they can bring him back, imo, he will be cut by 3/15), is there any way they can get away with Turner and Kerley as starters, and use a mid round pick on WR, while filling out the roster with Eron Riley and other UFA types?
Is Plax a necessity or a luxury, can Turner essentially play his roll or would we need Plax for Red Zone only? Turner did seem to makes strides this year.
Other teams have recently had success with young recievers, Giants and Steelers in particular, is it time we save some money at the position (especially since we are not exactly Air Coryell to begin with) and instead allocate it to the OL and backup QB?
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So they’ll just eat $7.5 mil and be cap-strapped with no playmaking receivers on the roster? Great plan!
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Also, I think it’s way more likely that Cumberland takes over Plax’s red zone role than Turner. Cumberland’s size means he can overpower receivers possibly even better than Plax. Turner doesn’t have that same physicality, despite his size.
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Cumberland would be fine, the Pats have proven you can win this way. If they can find a true blocking TE Keller could move outside as well since he really has not improved as a blocker.
Holmes and Plax are expendable, the league is moving away from paying non-superstar WR’s big money, and neither of them are super.
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PS_ Turner may not be as physical (Is he bent?) but he has a long term rapport with Sanchez and with the state of Sanchez mind right now that is important.
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For the record, I like Turner, but I think he would be a better possession receiver than big red zone target. He doesn’t have a big vertical leap and his arms aren’t that long for a guy his size. Cumberland, on the other hand, is just one of those freaks who is huge, fast, strong and athletic. I think losing him really hurt what the Jets planned on doing this year on offense.
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How about you wait to see what guys like Early Doucet, Marques Colston, Pierre Garcon, Robert Mecahem, Mario Manningham, DeSean Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Robert Meachem, Jordy Nelson Jerome Simpson, etc. get this offseason. The Jets might get one of these guys on the cheap if they wait out the market. Or they could get a guy early for cheaper if they convince the player to sign before the market sets.
But this is a passing league, I would think WR salaries are going up while RB salaries are going way down.
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Yes Brendan, they will.
He CAN NOT come back and if I understand correctly they get relief when he signs with someone else. Even if thats not the case you can not bring back a someone that has rubbed half the team wrong including your franchise QB. Sorry, they gambled and lost, cut the guy. They went to the AFC Championship without Holmes, they can live without him.
Plus Kerley may be just as much a playmaker based on what I saw, and its Mr. T’s job to find another one the draft, as he did with Kerley, or through free agency.
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Kerley is a slot receiver. He isn’t going to go over the top of a defense.
I don’t see what good cutting Holmes does. To send a message? What’s the message? Voice your opinion and you’re gone? He’s a STAR WIDE RECEIVER, he’s by far the best playmaker on offense, and the coordinator ignored him. He had him run dummy routes against a defense he can torch.
Holmes is a lot better than anything you’re finding in the draft, and if you find a receiver of his talent level or better, you’re paying him more than you’re paying Santonio.
It wasn’t that long ago that Holmes was Sanchez’s favorite receiver. Their differences aren’t about the other player, they’re about the coordinator. Remove the coordinator, and they have nothing to fight about.
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Well said brendan…..whoa i just realized i agreed with you…thats twice in one week, that has to be some kind of record
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“Holmes is a lot better than anything you’re finding in the draft”
Victor Cruz and Colston were unknowns, as were the PIT recievers. They are there every year.
If you want to amend this to “Homles is a lot better than anything Mr. T is going to find in the draft” then you are probably correct:)
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This isnt the forum for this, I, and I suspect most fans, believe he should be a goner.
This has nothing to do with voicing an opinion, it goes WAY beyond that.
HE QUIT!You dont quit on a team and then return.
And he is a selfish jerk (see stupid celebration penalties).
Other players said he was a cancer in the locker room, not me. He disrespected his QB in a huge game. He disrepected the O Line early in the year.
So yes it would send a very important message that there is no I in TEAM. Both T and Rex said as much. If they bring him back it undermines the TEAM concept, and more importantly risks a repeat next year.
The Steelers ran him out of town for the same reason are doing fine without him, didnt miss a beat, he is hardly irreplaceable.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
PPS – you assume HE wants to return, big assumption.
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If you cut people for being selfish, no team in football would have a full roster.
Let’s go back to why he left Pitt. They had Holmes get arrested for having a blunt roach in his ashtray. They had Big Ben get arrested for forcible sexual assault. Their dream-team QB/WR combo were both in bracelets in the same offseason. They had just given Ben a ton of cash, and since Holmes was cheap still he was easier to move. Holmes was NEVER a bad teammate in Pitt. Never.
In fact, when he was traded a lot of players were pissed about it because they felt the front office simply made him a scapegoat when his infraction wasn’t that bad.
The Steelers had a little guy by the name of Mike Wallace to replace Holmes. So yeah, if you think we have Mike Wallace, then trade Holmes. I can assure you we do not, though. We have no one on the team, outside of possibly Kerley (who hasn’t proven to be a serviceable receiver beyond 10-15 yards), that is capable of breaking plays open like Holmes is from the receiver spot.
I want this team to win, not make statements so Jets fans feel this is a team to model their family after. It’s football, not religion.
Bill Russell and John Wooden would tell little kids to take a hike when they asked for autographs. They weren’t the warmest and nicest guys, but they won so people didn’t care.
People didn’t care about Holmes’ flamboyant style and outspoken personality when the team was winning, but now that he’s losing it’s a problem.
If my captain and best offensive player wasn’t upset with not being a focal point of the offense, I’d be worried.
Did he handle it poorly? Yes. But to cut him just because he quit on a coach that wasn’t using him anyway? I think that’s too severe. Holmes wants to win, he wants to go to the HOF, he wants Super Bowls. He doesn’t want to run dummy routes so the offensive coordinator can call dump-offs all game long that the QB is throwing to defensive linemen.
Take the C away, absolutely. Maybe even a team suspension for a game or something like that if you really feel a message needs to be sent. But cutting your best playmaker to prove a point is not going to make you better.
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Dude how is he being selfish? By wanting the ball more? By wanting to make big plays instead of just running decoy routes? Whats the point of marks meetings if he doesnt even look to throw to his wrs? You dont think that holmes wants to live up to his contract and prove hes worth the money? The guy is frustrated….im sure hes gone to schitty, hes gone to rex and mark and asked for the ball more but when people dont listen this is what happens..
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Q3- Is McKnight ready to handle LT’s roll? Forget specials, how did McKnight grade out running and receiving for the year?
LT looked good all game, fired up. Shocked they did not try to ride the energy (actully not shocked, Shotted)and might have something left in the tank but I would still like to see McKnight get 20 carries in a meaningful spot to see what we have or do not have. He has big play potential, something we sorely need.
Of course, thanks for all of your excellent, dilligent work this year, you have added much to my understanding of these games, as you indicated, what you think happened live isnt always the case, and few if any of us have the time to put him redboarding this games.
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This team needs a rb…greene is ok but if rex wants ground and pound what about someone like hillis to match up with greene. What kind of contract could you expect hillis to sign?
Also to go with the ground and pound we need a rb with break away speed…could mcknight be that guy? If not who in the draft or fa could fill that role?
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kevin t says:
Hi Bent,
Could you compare Revis’ and Cromartie’s seasons with their past 2 years and how they compare? Improvement? Where did they and do they now rank among the leagues CBs?
Thanks as always for a great (ha) year. Appreciate your work.
-Kevin-
That’s compare vs. themselves not against eachother
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LIJetsFan says:
Granted the offense took a step backwards this year. Blame in on Hunter/Mulligan and downgrade in WR corps. None the less, Jets were right in the hunt till Leonard went down and we lost all the rest of the way. So, am I the lonely one who has figured out that safety is THE BIGGEST need? I feel certain that with healthy Leonard the Jets make the playoffs.
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tyler says:
SS and FS, I agree. I don’t think Leonard comes back and Eric Smith needs to go. We also need LBs. I like Harris, but the rest are average at best. And, obviously, a decent Hunter tackle/line depth. WRs come last because even IF we dump Holmes, I wouldn’t mind going with Kerney and Turner plus whoever we draft or sign. I also wouldn’t be opposed to another good receiving tight end since most teams seem to suck at covering them.
As far as WRs in the draft go, I think Ryan Broyles of OU could fall to us in the 2nd/3rd, possibly later due to his injury, and would be a great fit for the offense we SHOULD be running next season. I’ve heard Toon’s name a lot lately, but I honestly haven’t seen enough of him to make any judgements.
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Hey Bent, Great job this year. Others above have asked the questions I would so I just want to say thanks for the hard work this season.
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mataos says:
Great job all season Bent!
Your efforts will keep this site one of my few internet stops during the off-season yet again.
Thank you. -
Pufta says:
Bent –
Great job as always. Amazing how you put together the analysis as fast as you do.
I have a comment regarding Sanchez and his mechanics. Whenever I see Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Brady, or Romo throw the football they always seem to get their throwing hand “on top” of ball (whether throwing a deep ball or short ball) whereas with Sanchez he seems to overstride and ultimately his hand is “under” the ball when he throws it thus creating high and/or inaccurate throws.
Brees (who is actually shorter than Sanchez) is less likely to have his passes batted at the line than Sanchez because of this difference in mechanics. I dont know if this can be changed at this point but I definitely think Sanchez will never become elite if it doesnt.
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War Machine says:
Pufta is a genious I hate the way Sanchez throws
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Steve L says:
Nice work, Bent.
The one positive I got from the last few games was that Cromartie looked like he was employing real technique, rather than pure athleticism, to his coverage. His coverage against the Giants and Bills was first rate and he even managed to shove a runner out of bounds in the first half. I would like to bring him back, Your thoughts?
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CG says:
what were Revis’ final stats for the year being thrown at and completions and what not? was it one of the best ever or not even his own best season?
thanks for your work all year Bent
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Bobby says:
Lets also relax with the praise of Holmes’ talent. He is not a top-10 receiver in this league, maybe not even top-15. So its not like this is Randy Moss pouting, where you need to put up with it because he has a skill set that you can’t replicate.
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The emphasis of the comments have addressed the shortcomings of the offense, but who among you were really satisfied about the D.
Brian in the commentary about Scott said: “Scott was a big help to getting the defense to where it is today..” I believe that was a valid positive observation last year, but watching this D play was not inspirational. There are too many holes in personnel, too many long drives against us, and too many crucial mistakes leading to late losses. -
Rich says:
“Another year ends in disappointment, as they all do…” Spoken like a true Jet fan.
My question is this: As Brendan noted earlier, its a passing league. Do you think the Ground and Pound is a winning strategy? Clearly, the top teams (GB, NE, NO, SF, Pit) are pass-first offenses. And, if not, then is Rex the right coach and is Sanchez talented enough to ever succeed? 40+ years of blind hope is starting to wear me out!
Bent- thanks again for all of the great work. Its a shame that the beat reporters do not put the effort into their work that you do.
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Hey Bent –
Another big thanks you for all you’ve done this year and in years’ past.
I think of everything, Sanchez’s regression this year was the worst part. We all expected to see him grow – improving statistically as well as his command of the game. While his “numbers” edged up a bit this year, they weren’t at a level most of us we expecting. But for me, his lack of command/understanding was most concerning.
He seems overly academic in his approach. I know he’s always put in a lot of time learning the playbook and studying film, and that was important as a rookie and 2nd year player so that he wouldn’t fail the offense. But ultimately the game is won at a much simpler, more instinctive level. And Sanchez seemed to demonstrate very little of this. He appears too robotic – spending a lot of time trying to diagnose a defense at the snap (which he doesn’t do very well anyway), making a lot of audible/fake audible calls at the line, going through his progression reads laboriously (and often not finding the most open receiver), and over thinking just about everything. He looked “lost” just too many times.
In the end, I find Sanchez (or the offensive system) often stultifies the pace, momentum and energy of the game – and the team gets very little benefit. He just didn’t take that step up in maturity that I expected this year – and I can’t say I can see a clear path for his development in this regard going forward.
Maybe changing the Offensive Coordinator can help a bit, but I’m not sure it will solve this maturity issue. Sanchez may just be an expensive, well over-drafted “system” quarterback who can run a functional (but unspectacular) offense.
I know this isn’t a statistical/factual question, but what are your thoughts on this? As a first step, would you fire Schottenheimer (and what can you imagine Rex could cite as the reasons he should return)? Then make a more permanent judgement of Sanchez after a year under another OC?
Again many thanks for all of your hard work and efforts…
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This is my assessment of the jets’ season. the jets have an above average d, with a slightly below average qb with an average oline, running game and receiving corps. they have solid coaching on defense and bad coaching on offense. plus, they made way too many mistakes this year, from turnovers on special teams to killer penalties to not having a capable backup center. in the nfl, your final record is determined by who you play and when, coupled by certain bounces in certain games and the injury-luck factor. all this amounts to an 8-8 team.
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offseason moves that need to be made: on the oline- i predicted correctly before the season that hunter was the weak link on the team. he was only good against the pats in the playoffs because they have no pass rush. woody played most of the indy game, and they ran the ball a ton in the second half anyway. he was eaten alive against the texans and fins in the regular season and against pitt the offense didnt do anything till the second half. so hunter must go. i doubt with jared gaither or one of the guys they could have signed, the offense would have looked as inept as it did at times. it wouldnt have been as bad i dbrick didnt have his worst season since he shed his bust label. he doesn’t strike me as the take the money and run type of guy but we’ll see next year. we also must get some depth. shaun ohara is still unsigned. i agree mulligans had his last mulligan.
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receivers- obviously holmes isnt going anywhere with his attitude and contract, burress toed the line this year but didnt get open ever which allowed teams to consistently double holmes which led to the discord we have now. i was pissed when they signed holmes and not braylon who despite doing some stupid stuff, really loved being a jet and playing the game and was a great teammate unlike holmes who can’t undeerstand why no one likes him even tho he constantly displays selfishness and throws everyone under the bus but himself. honestly, i would trade keller for a second round pick. the standard for tight ends is much higher now, and if he can’t block and isnt 6-6 what good is he? i really think his role can be filled by cumberland and baker as receiving tight ends. and he rubs me the wrong way sometimes. im sick of everyone saying hes a matchup nightmare and then seeing him underutilized. i would spend a high pick on tall a receiver who can stretch the field but speed is a must. we have to get faster on offense.
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backs- shonn greene can stay for the remainder of his contract as a complimentary, second half of the game/season back. i agree Lt isnt done but we need someone more dynamic in that role who can actually run betw the tackles. joe mcknight was poorly used as he would get one touch at a time. he could be a decent third option. finally, pay da man! go get matt forte, and voila, instant offense.
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i wouldnt touch the dline. pouha is our main offseason priority. mowilk only going to get better. i would maybe try to get a 4-3 type end later in the draft because against teams with speed we look really slow on the line, somehow the 4-3 teams like the giants and bears who arent really fast defenses were able to contain the eagles the last few years. against the raiders and eagles we looked like we were going backward. we need scott for his leadership i find it hard to believe that rex would let him go. he is the heart and soul of this team, and if Lt goes we will be devoid of leaders even more than this year. bryan thomas is as good as gone, we need to address that position in the first couple of rounds of the draft and get somebody with speed who can rush the passer. i dont think i’m breaking new ground here. hopefully maybin can put on some weight and get better to become more of a complete player. dbs- personally i think we have the best corners in the league and i would bring strick back for continuity. eric smith is not a starter and i actually like pool better roaming as a free safety even though he cant wrap up. we need to find a true free safety tho, either in the draft or free agency, but i think the market is thin. eric smith should restructure his contract to that of a special teamer if he wants to stay. i think leonhards gotta come back as strong safety bec we have too many question marks.
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qbs- brunell can walk. i think mark has to take more of a leadership role and finally make this his team, but hes going to have to play better too to make that happen. mcelroy can back him up. hes our brady should mark get hurt. the only way i fire schotty is if there is a better replcement. with the news that norv is staying, i don’t know that i would make a change. i dont want callahan bec then sparano will be on the team coaching the line. special teams- imo anyone can have the seasons that folk and conley had, so might as well make a change and hope its better.
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Bent — Thanks for all of your hard work.
Kerley was a huge bright-spot. He has been close to terrific as a slot receiver. Does he have to tools to become a #1 or #2 WR (perhaps analagous to the transition by Welker)?
Your American Mate,
Spindoctor
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Who is the wr coach and why isnt he getting blamed for the lack of production from the wrs?
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I think the primary problem with BS is that he thinks he’s smarter than he is. To me, Sanchez plays much better when he’s not yelling “kill kill” and just running plays quickly. I also think that a lot of the false starts and problems on the 0-line are due to confusion because the play calls are constantly changing. Worse though, I think the running game and pass protection are hurt tremendously because the O-line is gunshy and gets off the ball late because they are not sure when the ball is being snapped. If there’s anything to this Bent, you are the right man for the job.
If not, then its time to root for the EPL Jets equivalent – go you Spurs!
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Bent-
Do you know what pick we got for Lowery?
What we gave up for Caleb?
Bent, just say it. The responsibility and accountability belong to Rex Ryan, a guy who had no clue all year long, and had completely lost control of the team before the starting whistle of the Phins game. the locker room meltdown was already in place.
Billy Walters, NFL gambler extrodinaire, has often said he would pay millions to know what is really going on inside a team’s locker room. Forget past performances.