Category Archives: Stats
This weekend, the writers at Advanced NFL Stats decided to plot every team since 2000 according to their offensive and defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) statistic. EPA is described in extensive detail here, but essentially, EPA describes the amount of points a team typically adds above those it would be expected to score in a given game situation.
The EPAs for the Jets teams since 2000 look like this:
The development of Sanchez over his first two seasons has been slow but steady. During both seasons, we’ve seen an inexperienced young quarterback overcome earlier issues and lead his team deep into the postseason. Will he continue to improve in Year 3? SNYWhyGuys tries to find out.
Sanchez’s first year was a bit rough and left a lot of room for development. In trying to tie a number to how much better Sanchez got between his first and second season, Mike Salfino of SNYWhyGuys looked at the ratio of TDs to INTS among quarterbacks since 1980 who, like Mark, threw more than 15 INTs and less than 15 TDs in their rookie seasons.
According to Mike’s calculations, Sanchez’s ratio was 0.60 in 2009 and 1.31 in 2010, a very typical improvement. If Mark continues to go the way he’s going (which, obviously, is not guaranteed), then Mike predicts about 20 TD passes and 13 INTs in 2011.
Tagged intereception, jets, Mark Sanchez, stats, touchdowns |
One of the most intriguing collegiate players entering the NFL July supplemental draft is Terrell Pryor. There are more articles and opinions circulating the Internet as to where he may land, than one could hope to read in on rainy Saturday. Of the articles I’ve managed to get through, a recurring theme present in analyst’s opinion of Pryor, is that he fits the Kordell Stewart mold. He possesses the physical attributes to help a team in many different ways. The best comparison I can make to a current Jets player, is Brad Smith, who happens to be a free agent.
They compare similarly in their game, both were mobile quarterbacks in college, but Pryor has the physical edge. Brad Smith checks in at six feet two inches and 212 pounds. Pryor comes in at six foot six inches and 233 pounds. In looking at their production at the collegiate level, they’re are some differences. Pryor’s passing numbers are impressive with a 144.6% QB rating, compared to Smiths 114.1%, many could say he played with a better supporting cast. The flip side of that argument is that Pryor played in the tougher conference, against staunch defenders. In 33 games at Ohio Pryor amassed 57 passing touchdowns and 26 interception with 2,164 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. Smith by comparison left Missouri with 56 passing TDs, 33 interceptions; 4,289 yards rushing and 45 rushing touchdowns. In looking at numbers alone you can see that Smith was a far greater threat on the ground than Pryor, but the former Ohio signal caller can more than hold his own.
Tagged Brad Smith, draft, nfl, quarterback, Seminole, supplemental, Terrelle Pryor, Wildcat |Everyone’s favorite number crunchers, Pro Football Focus, have spent all week looking at the ins and outs of team pass protection. The culmination of all of this studious computing is their Team Pass Protection rankings, listing all 32 teams according to their formula:
Pressure Per Play * Average Number of Pass Blockers Per Play * 1000 = Pass Protection Rating
The Jets placed 3rd, with a rating of 1.3:
Let’s take a look at the Jets’ line and where their pass protection grades saw them finish at their position. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, third. Damien Woody, sixth. Nick Mangold, fifth. Brandon Moore, third. Only Matt Slauson struggled with a negative grade in this very well built offensive line. The real problem, however, was the drop in play when Wayne Hunter was on the field, with him having some big issues against better edge rushers. It’s a worry if he starts next year, because this previous piece has already shown how Mark Sanchez struggles when pressured.
Pressure Per Play Rank: 3rd
Sack % of Pressure Rank: 13th
Average Number of Blockers Per Play Rank: 16th
The link quoted above points out how bipolar the Jets’ offense can be. Sanchez was graded 32nd among QBs when pressured. A large part of Sanchez’s success has relied on how effectively he’s been protected. It may actually be to his benefit to play with a slightly more porous offensive line. He might learn to adapt when under pressure.
According to an analysis done by Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders, the Jets 2010 defense was 28th overall in broken tackles. That means that opponents broke the tackles of Jets players only 4.6% of the time. Given the coaching style Rex Ryan preaches, of racing to the ball with furious energy on every down, this makes sense. And it’s good to see statistics confirm the Jets play.
Lurking just beneath these glowing stats is the loss to the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. Given that, according to FO‘s reckoning, the Jets had only 50 broken tackles over the course of the season, the 11 missed tackles that came in that one game were particularly painful. As Rich Cimini pointed out yesterday, Bart Scott (very uncharacteristically) missed four tackles during that matchup, doubling his 2010 regular season total of two. Oof.
Let’s just hope the lockout ends soon and we can start looking at next season.
We wrote this on Friday about the Jets and how their offense matched up against the Falcons defense.
This matchup for the Jets reminds me of the Jacksonville game, in which the Jets faced a tough run defense and sagging pass defense. It was enough to lull the Jets into a false sense of security when it came to passing the ball, where they were clearly going to have to earn their keep against such a stout run defense. While the Falcons run defense isn’t as good as the Jags is, it’s still good enough that the Jets are going to have to grind their way to a victory against this unit while running the ball, and the team needs to keep Sanchez in makable down and distance to convert on third downs, without allowing him to press the situation and then making mistakes, like Sanchez did in throwing 2 INTs against the Jaguars. Sanchez’s first INT of the game was on the very first play from scrimmage, and was converted for seven.
Of course the score wasn’t like the Jacksonville game, but the tenor of how this offense would play against this defense, very much was.
Just like the Jaguars game, in that very first series yesterday, Sanchez again throws a bad pick, that leads to the Jets making a heroic defensive stand and holding the Falcons to just three points, this time with a much shorter field. That was the first of this three picks, against a team that has been pretty bad over the course of the season against the pass. What gives?
I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.
(As a heads up, negative percentages are good on defense, bad on offense & specials)
Pass Offense: 19.3% (15th)
Rush Offense: 2.5% (13th)
Run Blocking: 16th // Pass Protection: 7th
Analysis: The way the Jets are playing on defense these days, they’re going to need some carry-over from some struggling teams like they’ve just played (Panthers, Bills, Bucs) as they transition into some better offenses in the next three weeks. (more…)
Reader Oliver A. emailed us the other day with a cool screenshot from what looks to be NFL.com, here’s what Oliver had to say
“I just wanted to share this with you and hopefully you will put it on the blog. I thought that was some pretty rarefied company were holding there!”
Absolutely. Pretty cool to see that the Jets are leading three statistical categories on defense.
Opening this to everyone, what’s the biggest difference in this defense? The scheme? The swagger? The personnel? I think the unit was poised for success and a few tweaks here and there (like every year) but it’s more about Ryan’s style than anything else.
(click to enlarge)
Yesterday we promised that we’re going to make posts, once a day, everyday until the end of voting (12/21) to badger you into stuffing the ballot box for Darrelle Revis.
While our (defensive) lord and savior Revis Christ currently has 33 passes defensed and six picks and a TD, Champ “The John Lynch Effect” Bailey is rocking his one interception and 10 passes defensed all the way to the bank for AFC corners with (at last count) 344,646 votes.
It’s a crime against humanity, and that’s an understatement.
So, just to torture you even more than even Italian Spiderman could, here’s the guy who’s leading the Pro Bowl voting over Darrelle Revis in action from just a few weeks ago.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG-h1qv2ZcM
While the question as to Sanchez’s ability to manage a game has come into question during the course of the season, we’ve seen him go from poised young rookie surprising the world, to disheveled rookie to handcuffed, game managing rookie. Partially because of that, Tim Graham at ESPN asks what if the Jets did things a little differently this year.
How much differently would the New York Jets’ season have gone if they’d gone with a competent veteran quarterback instead of erratic rookie Mark Sanchez?
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The Jets probably won’t make the playoffs, and when they look back on it, the reason will be their decision to start Sanchez all year rather than have him serve as an apprentice.
Maybe one day he’ll prove to be worthy of his “Sanchise” moniker, but he killed them in 2009.
The Jets didn’t need a superstar. All they needed was someone who wasn’t capable of throwing four or five interceptions a game. Behind workhorse back Thomas Jones, the Jets are averaging 169.1 rushing yards a game. They’re limiting opponents to 264.7 total yards and 160.4 passing yards a game. The Jets rank 27th in team passer rating at 62.4.
Sanchez, during that repugnant stretch in which the Jets lost six out of seven games in October and November, threw six touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Take away one of those games — say, the five-interception performance in a sudden-death loss to the Buffalo Bills at the Meadowlands — and the Jets are in control of their own destiny.
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But what if the Jets had signed somebody such as Jeff Garcia or somehow convinced Brett Favre to give it another whirl?
To answer the last question first, I think someone like a Garcia or Leftwich would have been the right signing by this team in the offseason. I don’t get why the Jets think that four young inexperienced QBs is better than having at least one veteran journeyman. A far as Favre, that answer is easy. Favre was horrendous for the Jets last year, to think he would be otherwise was counterintuitive to everyone at the time. More importantly, his salary was bloated, basically blocking any other moves the team might have made in the offseason. The Jets were looking for someone to build the team around for the next 10-15 years, and they thought they found that guy in Sanchez after meeting with him in the spring.
We all knew that with a rookie, come rookie problems. We talked at length about how veterans have to feel about having a rookie quarterback, and for the most part, his teammates have taken the high road on the subject.
As far as Sanchez, no argument that he was (on the whole) bad during that string of losses, and as Graham points out, just one more victory, say against the Bills, the Dolphins, or Jacksonville, and the Jets are in it to win it. But you can’t hang all the blame on Sanchez, either. In the two Dolphins games, Sanchez threw for three touchdowns rushed for another, gained 427 yards in the air, and threw no interceptions. One of the losses was squarely on the defense, while the other, on special teams. Still if the team can’t rely on their quarterback, that’s bad news.
While I wanted the team to get a veteran, the real question shouldn’t be why didn’t the Jets have a veteran to spell Sanchez, since that ship has sailed. Ryan was determined to start him, and I think having done that, we’ve avoided some of the more ugly drawn out progression that other quarterbacks can face.
Rather, why didn’t Rex intervene sooner to get him to manage the game? I do think that having the threat of putting someone in who has proven they know how to manage a game might have broken Sanchez sooner. While some NFL pundits who don’t look at this team closely, have mocked the green/yellow/red codewords, look at Sanchez’s breakdowns in wins and losses and tell me if caution with the rookie isn’t the right move:
Those win stats might not be sexy, but they’re still saddled with the one stat that counts, a W.
Thought that was an impressive showing by the Jets? Here’s some of the highlights from the Jets defense in that game.
- In the first half, the Jets held the Bucs to five rushing yards and ten yards of passing.
- For the game, the Bucs had just 126 yards of total offense, averaging 2.3 yards per offensive snap.
- From the start of the game, the Jets defense went on a streak of nine series without allowing the Bucs to a first down conversion that lasted into the third quarter.
- Darrelle Revis had one interception and four passes defensed. As I wrote yesterday Revis should be charged for molestation because his hands were on Freeman’s balls ALL DAY.
- The Jets are showing why it’s not all about tackle totals. While David Harris has impressed us in past seasons with his high tackle totals, the Jets players highest tackle (combined) total for the game yesterday was seven (Pace, Scott). When you see those sorts of numbers, that lets you know that the team is an elite defense. They’re not on the field enough to rack up tackles.
- In addition to the his sack, Calvin Pace had an impressive three tackles for loss, and the team had seven, meaning that they dominated the line of scrimmage on defense.
Dave Hutchinson notes that the defense in New York is the league leader in yards allowed.
Jets coach Rex Ryan might not deliver the Super Bowl in his rookie season, but he has delivered the league’s No. 1 ranked defense.
For the first time since 1968 — their Super Bowl season — the Jets are ranked first in the NFL in total defense this late in the season.
Through Week 13, the Jets are yielding just 276.4 yards per game, tops in the league. They also rank first in pass defense, allowing just 167.0 yards per game.
It’s not always just about yards. Points allowed, third down conversions also have to be factored into it, but it’s still a very impressive statistic.
Although it’s not been updated for this week yet, Football Outsiders rankings from last week would agree that by most measures, yes, this is a pretty good defense. The defense was tweaked this year, but aside from the signing of Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, it’s largely the same team as last year. In 2008, this defense ranked 14th according to the Outsiders. What’s been impressive is that Kris Jenkins is on injured reserve, and it’s hard to deny that he’s one of the best players this team has.
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