The EPAs for the Jets teams since 2000 look like this:

As you can see, the 2011 look pretty close to the 2009 team in terms of defensive production. However, 2010 was a big dip defensively for Rex Ryan, a stat that may have been affected by the early loss of Revis and the unexpected loss of Leonhard last year.

If we look at these stats over time, it’s easier to see offensive and defensive disparities.

This chart gives credence to both Brian Schottenheimer haters and sympathizers alike. As you might expect, the offensive low point of the last eleven years was the disastrous 4-12 season in 2005. In 2006, Schottenheimer’s first season, offensive EPA shot up to a barely respectable 0.033. His success was short-lived, though, and EPA dropped to a dismal -1.718 in 2007 as the Jets once again fell to 4-12. It’s hard to give him credit for the 4.471 EPA achieved in 2008. Had his offense not picked up with Brett Favre playing for him, Schottenheimer would have been fired on the spot.

Beginning 2009, with the signing of Mark Sanchez and the hiring of Rex Ryan, there appears to be a steady positive increase in EPA over time. Of course, there’s no way to way to what to attribute this. It could be Schottenheimer’s success, but it could be Sanchez finding his groove with the team, similar to the positive slope in 2000-2002 following Testaverde’s return from injury.

The defensive stats paint an interesting picture of the Ryan era:

As you can see, bringing in Ryan resulted in an immediate spike in the Jets’ defensive EPA. 2010 saw a large drop-off, but levels still stayed higher than they’d been in half a decade. This year, defensive EPA is as high as it’s been since 2009 and offensive EPA is at its highest of the Ryan era.

Sanchez’s first year was a bit rough and left a lot of room for development. In trying to tie a number to how much better Sanchez got between his first and second season, Mike Salfino of SNYWhyGuys looked at the ratio of TDs to INTS among quarterbacks since 1980 who, like Mark, threw more than 15 INTs and less than 15 TDs in their rookie seasons.

According to Mike’s calculations, Sanchez’s ratio was 0.60 in 2009 and 1.31 in 2010, a very typical improvement. If Mark continues to go the way he’s going (which, obviously, is not guaranteed), then Mike predicts about 20 TD passes and 13 INTs in 2011.

One of the most intriguing collegiate players entering the NFL July supplemental draft is Terrell Pryor. There are more articles and opinions circulating the Internet as to where he may land, than one could hope to read in on rainy Saturday. Of the articles I’ve managed to get through, a recurring theme present in analyst’s opinion of Pryor, is that he fits the Kordell Stewart mold. He possesses the physical attributes to help a team in many different ways. The best comparison I can make to a current Jets player, is Brad Smith, who happens to be a free agent.

They compare similarly in their game, both were mobile quarterbacks in college, but Pryor has the physical edge. Brad Smith checks in at six feet two inches and 212 pounds. Pryor comes in at six foot six inches and 233 pounds. In looking at their production at the collegiate level, they’re are some differences. Pryor’s passing numbers are impressive with a 144.6% QB rating, compared to Smiths 114.1%, many could say he played with a better supporting cast. The flip side of that argument is that Pryor played in the tougher conference, against staunch defenders. In 33 games at Ohio Pryor amassed 57 passing touchdowns and 26 interception with 2,164 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. Smith by comparison left Missouri with 56 passing TDs, 33 interceptions;  4,289 yards rushing and 45 rushing touchdowns. In looking at numbers alone you can see that Smith was a far greater threat on the ground than Pryor, but the former Ohio signal caller can more than hold his own.

This leads me to the Jets potential interest in Pryor with supplemental draft around the corner. While most GM’s around the league seem to be playing down Pryor’s value to most media outlets, those in the know feel he could be a strong fit with Gang Green and I agree. He most certainly won’t be returning kicks, Jeremy Kerley should fall into that role, he can fill a large offensive void left by the possible departure of Brad Smith. I’m sure Brian Schottenheimer is salivating at the thought of having a player with the shear size and athletic ability of Pryor lining up in the backfield for the Seminole/wildcat formations. Pryor also has the physical gift to fill in as a fourth or fifth wide receiver thus increasing his value.

The Jets have had their fair share of well documented draft blunders, but this hasn’t deterred Mike Tannenbaum from making a splash on draft day in recent years. Should a team select Pryor in this years supplemental draft, that team will be forfeiting the corresponding pick in the 2012 NFL Draft,. Meaning, should a team select him in, say, the second round the team then gives up their second round pick next year.  I’m sure a team will surprise everyone and take him ahead of analyst’s projections, but should he fall to an acceptable range (third or fourth round in my estimation) don’t be surprised if the Jets pull the trigger and take a chance on him. For clear disclosure, I am not opposed to him joining Gang Green. Rex and company has shown they are not afraid to bring players with questionable backgrounds on board.

One thing that I am looking forward to is June 30th’s “QB Camp” with John Gruden on ESPN. Terrelle Pryor will be stepping into Gruden’s world giving us a little insight into what he is capable of physically and mentally. This is a great stage for Pryor to continue to show remorse for the situation he left behind at Ohio and to display his on field abilities. I know I’ll be tuning in at nine pm to watch it.

I’d like to know your thoughts, should the Jets take an aggressive stance and go after Pryor?

Pressure Per Play * Average Number of Pass Blockers Per Play * 1000 = Pass Protection Rating

The Jets placed 3rd, with a rating of 1.3:

Let’s take a look at the Jets’ line and where their pass protection grades saw them finish at their position. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, third. Damien Woody, sixth. Nick Mangold, fifth. Brandon Moore, third. Only Matt Slauson struggled with a negative grade in this very well built offensive line. The real problem, however, was the drop in play when Wayne Hunter was on the field, with him having some big issues against better edge rushers. It’s a worry if he starts next year, because this previous piece has already shown how Mark Sanchez struggles when pressured.

Pressure Per Play Rank: 3^rd

Sack % of Pressure Rank: 13^th

Average Number of Blockers Per Play Rank: 16^th

The link quoted above points out how bipolar the Jets’ offense can be. Sanchez was graded 32nd among QBs when pressured.  A large part of Sanchez’s success has relied on how effectively he’s been protected. It may actually be to his benefit to play with a slightly more porous offensive line. He might learn to adapt when under pressure.

Lurking just beneath these glowing stats is the loss to the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. Given that, according to FO‘s reckoning, the Jets had only 50 broken tackles over the course of the season, the 11 missed tackles that came in that one game were particularly painful. As Rich Cimini pointed out yesterday, Bart Scott (very uncharacteristically) missed four tackles during that matchup, doubling his 2010 regular season total of two. Oof.

Let’s just hope the lockout ends soon and we can start looking at next season.

We wrote this on Friday about the Jets and how their offense matched up against the Falcons defense.

This matchup for the Jets reminds me of the Jacksonville game, in which the Jets faced a tough run defense and sagging pass defense. It was enough to lull the Jets into a false sense of security when it came to passing the ball, where they were clearly going to have to earn their keep against such a stout run defense. While the Falcons run defense isn’t as good as the Jags is, it’s still good enough that the Jets are going to have to grind their way to a victory against this unit while running the ball, and the team needs to keep Sanchez in makable down and distance to convert on third downs, without allowing him to press the situation and then making mistakes, like Sanchez did in throwing 2 INTs against the Jaguars. Sanchez’s first INT of the game was on the very first play from scrimmage, and was converted for seven.

Of course the score wasn’t like the Jacksonville game, but the tenor of how this offense would play against this defense, very much was.

Just like the Jaguars game, in that very first series yesterday, Sanchez again throws a bad pick, that leads to the Jets making a heroic defensive stand and holding the Falcons to just three points, this time with a much shorter field. That was the first of this three picks, against a team that has been pretty bad over the course of the season against the pass. What gives?

I know that the Jets had a tough time running the ball yesterday, and I know the only points the team had came in the air, but the Jets should have continued to pound the ball on the Falcons, regardless of down or distance. I’m not saying never throw the ball, but the Jets should have been more judicious about it earlier in the game. A few long bombs here and there to loosen up the defense, yes, a few smart passes to convert really crucial third downs, but by and large, even in 2nd and 8s or 3rd and 6s, I think the team should have run the ball. The defense was doing it’s job, just don’t let Sanchez make the mistakes against this Atlanta team, which he did anyway thanks in part to Schotty’s plan and thanks in part to Sanchez’s execution.

The trouble with this all, is that Sanchez seems to have some of his worst games against bad pass defenses of late. While playing Carolina and Buffalo, two top ten pass defenses, Sanchez played inside himself, and did well enough to help the team to a win, but against bad pass defenses, I get the sense he thinks he has a carte blanche, and he turns into Mr. Hyde. I just don’t get it.

Just to illustrate how essential his play has been to the team’s losses this year, here’s a graph to show how he performs in losses compared to an average of the top 32 passers in the league this year. In wins, he’s near (or above) the average QBs in this league. In all losses (with the exception of the Miami game, something we’ve already pointed out) he’s bombed out.

(click to enlarge)

What does this mean? So far, Sanchez has played at or above average in eight of thirteen starts. Those eight games have translated to six wins. With whatever offseason re-tooling the team does, if Sanchez can just play average, not elite even, in 12-14 games next year, this team should be pretty good, record-wise.

I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.

(As a heads up, negative percentages are good on defense, bad on offense & specials)

Pass Offense: 19.3% (15th)
Rush Offense: 2.5% (13th)
Run Blocking: 16th // Pass Protection: 7th
Analysis: The way the Jets are playing on defense these days, they’re going to need some carry-over from some struggling teams like they’ve just played (Panthers, Bills, Bucs) as they transition into some better offenses in the next three weeks.  

Atlanta’s got three very talented players in (when healthy) Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzalez.  Ryan’s having a steady second season, along  with one of the league’s better backs, Michael Turner.  While Roddy White is someone that Revis will likely draw in the passing game, the concern should be more around Tony Gonzalez who has been having another great year as a receiver for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

Kerry Rhodes has matched up well in the past against Gonzalez because they’re both athletic and tall, and between him, Bart Scott and Bryan Thomas, the team should be in good hands should any of the levels need to cover the receiver.  Still, Gonzalez will get his yards, it’s going to be about limiting him and keeping him out of the picture as a safety valve for Ryan as much as possible.  That’s the concern for me from the way Rhodes has been tackling this year.  Watching Dallas Clark’s second TD last night reminded me of the tackling I’ve seen from Rhodes all season.

As far as stopping the run, the Jets are going to be up against a unit that is very statistically similar to their own, so expect the Falcons, to rely heavily on the run, especially if the weather turns snowy.

Pass Defense: 30.3% (29th)
Rush Defense: -9.5% (10th)
Run Blocking: 18th // Sack Rate: 25th

Analysis: This matchup for the Jets reminds me of the Jacksonville game, in which the Jets faced a tough run defense and sagging pass defense.  It was enough to lull the Jets into a false sense of security when it came to passing the ball, where they were clearly going to have to earn their keep against such a stout run defense.  While the Falcons run defense isn’t as good as the Jags is, it’s still good enough that the Jets are going to have to grind their way to a victory against this unit while running the ball, and the team needs to keep Sanchez in makable down and distance to convert on third downs, without allowing him to press the situation and then making mistakes, like Sanchez did in throwing 2 INTs against the Jaguars.  Sanchez’s first INT of the game was on the very first play from scrimmage, and was converted for seven.

If the game is a snowy one, this could make for a very interesting conundrum for the Jets and their passing unit.  Watch to see how Schottenheimer would deal with that weather element from a run-pass perspective, and when the team does pass, what type of plays are they running?

Special Teams: 0.2% (18th)

Analysis: The Falcons have the best kick and coverage unit in the league by a wide margin, so expect the Jets to be set up often deep into their own territory off kicks.

If the defense can do it’s job by keeping the Falcons from converting for new first downs, then the Falcons will be playing into the Jets hands on punts and field goals.  The Falcons are really struggling in their punting, so look for the Jets to try and capitalize as best they can for field position via punts, since it won’t come on kickoffs.  Other than Tampa, the the Falcons have had a rough time with field goal kicking this season, so look to see if misses don’t come into play on a cold, snowy day in New Jersey.

“I just wanted to share this with you and hopefully you will put it on the blog. I thought that was some pretty rarefied company were holding there!”

Absolutely. Pretty cool to see that the Jets are leading three statistical categories on defense.

Opening this to everyone, what’s the biggest difference in this defense? The scheme? The swagger? The personnel? I think the unit was poised for success and a few tweaks here and there (like every year) but it’s more about Ryan’s style than anything else.

(click to enlarge)

While our (defensive) lord and savior Revis Christ currently has 33 passes defensed and six picks and a TD, Champ “The John Lynch Effect” Bailey is rocking his one interception and 10 passes defensed all the way to the bank for AFC corners with (at last count) 344,646 votes.

It’s a crime against humanity, and that’s an understatement.

[Pro Bowl Ballot]

So, just to torture you even more than even Italian Spiderman could, here’s the guy who’s leading the Pro Bowl voting over Darrelle Revis in action from just a few weeks ago.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG-h1qv2ZcM

How much differently would the New York Jets’ season have gone if they’d gone with a competent veteran quarterback instead of erratic rookie Mark Sanchez?

…

The Jets probably won’t make the playoffs, and when they look back on it, the reason will be their decision to start Sanchez all year rather than have him serve as an apprentice.

Maybe one day he’ll prove to be worthy of his “Sanchise” moniker, but he killed them in 2009.

The Jets didn’t need a superstar. All they needed was someone who wasn’t capable of throwing four or five interceptions a game. Behind workhorse back Thomas Jones, the Jets are averaging 169.1 rushing yards a game. They’re limiting opponents to 264.7 total yards and 160.4 passing yards a game. The Jets rank 27th in team passer rating at 62.4.

Sanchez, during that repugnant stretch in which the Jets lost six out of seven games in October and November, threw six touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Take away one of those games — say, the five-interception performance in a sudden-death loss to the Buffalo Bills at the Meadowlands — and the Jets are in control of their own destiny.

..

But what if the Jets had signed somebody such as Jeff Garcia or somehow convinced Brett Favre to give it another whirl?

To answer the last question first, I think someone like a Garcia or Leftwich would have been the right signing by this team in the offseason. I don’t get why the Jets think that four young inexperienced QBs is better than having at least one veteran journeyman. A far as Favre, that answer is easy. Favre was horrendous for the Jets last year, to think he would be otherwise was counterintuitive to everyone at the time. More importantly, his salary was bloated, basically blocking any other moves the team might have made in the offseason. The Jets were looking for someone to build the team around for the next 10-15 years, and they thought they found that guy in Sanchez after meeting with him in the spring.

We all knew that with a rookie, come rookie problems. We talked at length about how veterans have to feel about having a rookie quarterback, and for the most part, his teammates have taken the high road on the subject.

As far as Sanchez, no argument that he was (on the whole) bad during that string of losses, and as Graham points out, just one more victory, say against the Bills, the Dolphins, or Jacksonville, and the Jets are in it to win it. But you can’t hang all the blame on Sanchez, either. In the two Dolphins games, Sanchez threw for three touchdowns rushed for another, gained 427 yards in the air, and threw no interceptions. One of the losses was squarely on the defense, while the other, on special teams. Still if the team can’t rely on their quarterback, that’s bad news.

While I wanted the team to get a veteran, the real question shouldn’t be why didn’t the Jets have a veteran to spell Sanchez, since that ship has sailed. Ryan was determined to start him, and I think having done that, we’ve avoided some of the more ugly drawn out progression that other quarterbacks can face.

Rather, why didn’t Rex intervene sooner to get him to manage the game? I do think that having the threat of putting someone in who has proven they know how to manage a game might have broken Sanchez sooner. While some NFL pundits who don’t look at this team closely, have mocked the green/yellow/red codewords, look at Sanchez’s breakdowns in wins and losses and tell me if caution with the rookie isn’t the right move:

Those win stats might not be sexy, but they’re still saddled with the one stat that counts, a W.