Here’s how Sanchez looks in comparison to just a handful of players. I’d like to get a wider set of data, but this at least gives you a taste of how he’s doing.

So, from what I can tell, he’s pretty much on pace. The Saints game happened, and there’s no taking it back, but you could see how things might be different if you were to remove 5 INTs from that number. I’m pleased with what I’ve seen of him on and off the field, but it’s how he plays not only throughout the game, but within the two minute that will determine where his career goes from here.

Here’s today’s standings for the Jets and the top ten teams in the AFC. Even if the Jets were to win six games on the back half, this team would probably not make the playoffs based on the way that the divisions are playing out with two teams in the South above them, two teams in the West, and three teams in the North.

A lot would have to reverse trends in at least two of the three divisions (most notable the North) as it stands for an AFC East team get into the playoffs. It would be a shock for the East to produce a wildcard team.

Is this the Jets-Bills game the team the Jets need at the time they need it?

It should be, according to Accu-Score there’s really no way that the Jes shouldn’t win this game handily. According to the prediction model, the Jets have a 77% chance of winning.

For the past few years, when the Jets play their first game against the Bills during the first month and a half of football, it seems to be a microcosm for the season is going to go the rest of the way for the Jets …

2004 — Week 5 – Jets win 16-14 in a squeaker over the Bills to go 5-0. Pennington threw for over 300 yards, but it was John Abraham’s three sack game (helped out by the rest of the F.E.A.R. – some D-Line) that everyone was talking about.
Jets go 10-6 on the season

2005 — Week 6 – Jets lost 17-27at the Bills, with Vinny at the helm. Coming off their surprise win against the Bucs, Curtis Martin had one of his last great games for the Jets going 18-148 and a TD. Other than that, Vinny was sacked five times and threw two picks while the Jets locked into their soul-killing slide, not to win again until Week 14 against the Raiders.
Jets go 4-12 on the season

2006 — Week 3 – Jets win 28-20 at the Bills in a game that wasn’t that close. JP Losman was sacked three times (twice by Rhodes, remember those days?) and Victor Hobson had a fumble recovery for a TD.
Jets go 10-6 on the season.

2007 — Week 4 – Jets lose 17-14 at the Bills. A hobbling Chad Pennington goes 32-39 for 291 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT in a game which the Jets could never get the upper hand on the Bills.
Jets go 4-12 on the season

ESPN Stats & Information tracks every snap and has determined the Jets have sent added pressure a whopping 62.6 percent of the time through the first three weeks. They have recorded only four sacks, but anybody who has watched the Jets’ defense can’t deny how their disruptive ways have rattled quarterbacks and short-circuited opposing offenses.

That’s far and away the largest percentage in the league. The Chicago Bears are next when it comes to sending added pressure at 47.5 percent.

The NFL average is 35.6 percent.

The Oakland Raiders are the most conservative team at 11.0 percent.

Stats & Information defines “standard pressure” as four pass-rushers. But if, for example, only three advance and a fourth comes from the secondary, then that would be considered “added pressure.”

The Jets have been rushing a lot of players, to be sure, but I think that they interchange the blitzer, feint lineman, overload one side means that there’s a lot of defensive backs coming into the backfield. I’d be curious to see the breakdown of how many times the jets rushed just three with one DB. I’m not complaining, I think it’s cool how effective the different pressures have been. I’m just saying I think that’s what might be that throws them so high above the curve in terms of their blitz percentages.

Thanks NYEE-ERDS.

I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.

Pass Offense: 24.3% (14th)
Rush Offense: 2.8% (16th)
Analysis: Although we all saw Chris Johnson go off on the Houston defense last week, the Jets held Johnson in check during their game last season. The only problem here is that in that game, the Jets had Calvin Pace, who did a great job of setting the edge against Johnson, one of the league’s best and fastest rushers outside the tackles. Other than Johnson, the Titans offense is rather pedestrian so far this season, ranking in the middle of the pack. Kerry Collins isn’t going to make a lot of mistakes, but he’s a pure pocket passer, and the Jets have shown this season that they know what to do when they’re up against one of those.

Pass Defense: 56.9% (29th)
Rush Defense: -73.1% (1st)
Analysis: As you can see, there should be a point of emphasis on winning via the air versus the pass which makes for an interesting matchup for Mark Sanchez. Although Houston did their best to force the game into his hands, the Titans aren’t one of the league’s best rush defenses year in and year out by accident. The Jets proved last year that the Titans can be run on, as KC Joyner pointed out on ESPN.com earlier this week. Still, it will probably come down to Sanchez’s ability offensively to win via the pass, not bad when you consider that the Jets passing attack has been very steady so far. Based on how Tennessee grades out versus wideouts (bottom of page), look for the Jets to be successful in getting the ball to Cotchery and Keller and while the team has more of a spread style offense on the field.

Special Teams: -11.1% (31st)
Analysis: Should all else in this game turn into a quagmire, the Jets should win this phase of the game easily. Right now, the Jets are the top unit on specials according to F.O. so should outgain the Titans on kick returns and punts, and pin them deeper on kicks and punts, thus creating a field position advantage for the Jets. Feely has had a good season so far on field goals, and this might be a chance for him to get a good number of field goals if the game turns into a field position battle.

• 16 points given up in two games (including a Sanchez pick six, so … really no TDs)
• Two teams under 300 yards
• Two 100+ yard rushing games
• 2 TDs to 1 INT
• No opponent rushers who rushed for more than 50 yards
• A combined 41-80 Completions to Attempts for opposing QBs
• A 2-0 Record

The Jets had seven sacks, including the first for 2008 first-round pick Vernon Gholston, giving them 18 overall. It’s the most in a four-game preseason since New England had 19 in 2003.

The next best team this preseason was the Seahawks, who had 16 in the preseason. In 2008, the Jets had 41 sacks during the season, good for 7th in the league. So how did New England do over the course of that 2003 season in terms of their pass rush?

New England in 2003:
F.O. Overall DVOA Rank: 2
F.O. Sack Rank: 21(Sacks on 6.4% of all [adjusted] plays from scrimmage)
Total Sacks: 41 (Ranked 6th)

A few more things about Brandon Marshall that may slow your roll on the desire to acquire him. If you look at his numbers on Football Outsiders, he’s really not as good of a receiver as he’s cracked up to be.

2006 – Brandon Marshall
37 Targets, 309 Yards, 2TD, 54% CatchRate
(Unranked)

2007 – Brandon Marshall
170 Targets, 1325 Yards, 7TDs, 60% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 28th DVOA Rank: 55th

2008 – Brandon Marshall
181 Targets, 1266 Yards, 7TDs, 57% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 42nd DVOA Rank: 58th

The CatchRate is the real issue for me. The top receivers in the league in a given year generally average in the 63-66% range, and Marshall has been well below that in all three of his years in the pros. Add in learning a new offense and who knows what happens. So, for the sheer amount of opportunities thrown to him in 2008 in a full season with Jay Cutler, arguably one of the best young guns in the league, that’s all he came up with? There’s only one other talent, Andre Johnson who had near as many balls thrown at him in 2008, and he ranked tops in the league.

2008 — Andre Johnson
170 Targets, 1575 Yards, 9TDs, 68% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 1st DVOA Rank: 5th

And who did Johnson have throwing to him … Sage Rosenfels? I haven’t seen enough of Marshall to make a real statement on his game, but my point is that he’s doing less with more, and the more I look at it, the more I wonder how well it will translate to the Jets. A cantankerous WR with a history of violence off the field, and legitimate questions to his production on the field moving to New York to work with a clean cut rookie (most likely) who’s still getting a handle on the offense. To me, it doesn’t sound much like a winning combination.

Pass Offense: 29.8% (5th)
Rush Offense: 3.7% (12th)
O-Line Adjusted Line Yards: 4.24 Yards (15th)
O-Line Adj. Sack Rate: 5.5% (12th)

Analysis: With decent protection against pass rushers, this team has one of the best passing games in the league this season, and has done it with two of the Achilles Heels of the Jets already shaky pass defense, Tight Ends and Running Backs. David Martin and Anthony Fasano are having career years, while Patrick Cobbs has been deadly out of the backfield. In terms of running the ball, the team is great at getting short yardage in the situations when they need it, so depending on which Jets defense shows up, the team could be in for a very long day.

Pass Defense: 8.0% (14th)
Rush Defense: 1.4% (18th)
Defensive Adjusted Line Yards: 4.13 Yards (12th)
Defensive Adj. Sack Rate: 6.9% (13th)

Analysis: This linebacking unit has flourished in 2008. With excellent talent like Yeremiah Bell and Channing Crowder, this unit has really done an excellent job at controlling their gaps this season and holding opposing runners to very few long gains on runs. If teams are going to beat the Dolphins with their runners, it’s going to be by grinding them down. The Dolphins are decent, not great at getting to the QB. If the Jets are going to have success at passing the ball, they will best served doing it against Andre’ Goodman, but Will Allen might also be suffering from a knee injury.

Special Teams: -5.1% (29th)

Analysis: This is the one area where the Jets have a true advantage over the Dolphins. The Dolphins are bad in all phases of special teams, but kickoffs and punt returns are their worst areas. In that case, the Jets might need a big boost from Leon Washington before the day is over.