Category Archives: Stats
Well, we were all witness to greatness last night … I mean other than MTV’s new trainwreck Jersey Shore, of course.
The greatness came in the form of Terrell Owens’s marooning on Revis Island. Oh, this island has a shore too, but last night it sure looked like a cold desolate wasteland.
Terrell Owens: 9 Targets / 3 Receptions / 31 yards / 0 TDs
Darrelle Revis: 4 Tackles / 5 Passes Defensed / 1 INT
While Terrell Owens was all smiles to the press on Wednesday and fleece-lined bomber hats during his arrival at the stadium T.O.’s contingent invite for Darrelle to his birthday party in NYC this coming weekend after his touchdown, never came. Hey T.O., I’m sure Darrelle is CRUSHED.
For as nice as the interception was, five passes defensed in one game is an amazing statistic. For as many times as he had his hand on the football last night, you knew it was a matter of time before he’d intercept a pass, and it came right before the end of the game. On the year, Revis now has 28 passes defensed so far. That’s seven better than the next two best defensive backs in the league: Darren Sharper and Leon Hall.
The best part about Revis’s game is that just boils down to production. No trash talk, just quiet confidence and taking care of business. I like that Rex Ryan brought some bluster to this team … it needed a shake up … but when you get down to it, the quiet and confident Revis is looking a lot better than a certain other secondary player who seems to have lost the use of his arms.
While some statisticians think that the Jets are in a clear space to win this game, here’s some interesting stats from ESPN-Accuscore. If MJD runs for 75+ yards and gets a touchdown, the odds switch to Jacksonville.
Eight games is a general reference for getting a sense of how rookie NFL quarterbacks project forward. Why? I can’t be sure, but half a season seems like a fair sample size. To that end, I took a quick sampling of quarterbacks who have succeeded in the NFL (as or since their rookie year) and wanted to do some comparisons to see how Mark Sanchez has stacked up so far in eight games against some of the league’s better quarterbacks.
Here’s how Sanchez looks in comparison to just a handful of players. I’d like to get a wider set of data, but this at least gives you a taste of how he’s doing.
So, from what I can tell, he’s pretty much on pace. The Saints game happened, and there’s no taking it back, but you could see how things might be different if you were to remove 5 INTs from that number. I’m pleased with what I’ve seen of him on and off the field, but it’s how he plays not only throughout the game, but within the two minute that will determine where his career goes from here.
Here’s today’s standings for the Jets and the top ten teams in the AFC. Even if the Jets were to win six games on the back half, this team would probably not make the playoffs based on the way that the divisions are playing out with two teams in the South above them, two teams in the West, and three teams in the North.
A lot would have to reverse trends in at least two of the three divisions (most notable the North) as it stands for an AFC East team get into the playoffs. It would be a shock for the East to produce a wildcard team.
Is this the Jets-Bills game the team the Jets need at the time they need it?
It should be, according to Accu-Score there’s really no way that the Jes shouldn’t win this game handily. According to the prediction model, the Jets have a 77% chance of winning.
For the past few years, when the Jets play their first game against the Bills during the first month and a half of football, it seems to be a microcosm for the season is going to go the rest of the way for the Jets …
Newflash, the Jets are bringing more pressure this year. Need proof? Well, according to those eggheads over at the ESPN Stats & Information department tell us something that we probably already knew, but they have compiled what the Jets defense is doing in terms of pressuring a quarterback, and by their definition, the Jets are bringing a lot more rushers than well — anyone — in the league … by a staggering margin of almost 15%.
ESPN Stats & Information tracks every snap and has determined the Jets have sent added pressure a whopping 62.6 percent of the time through the first three weeks. They have recorded only four sacks, but anybody who has watched the Jets’ defense can’t deny how their disruptive ways have rattled quarterbacks and short-circuited opposing offenses.
That’s far and away the largest percentage in the league. The Chicago Bears are next when it comes to sending added pressure at 47.5 percent.
The NFL average is 35.6 percent.
The Oakland Raiders are the most conservative team at 11.0 percent.
Stats & Information defines “standard pressure” as four pass-rushers. But if, for example, only three advance and a fourth comes from the secondary, then that would be considered “added pressure.”
The Jets have been rushing a lot of players, to be sure, but I think that they interchange the blitzer, feint lineman, overload one side means that there’s a lot of defensive backs coming into the backfield. I’d be curious to see the breakdown of how many times the jets rushed just three with one DB. I’m not complaining, I think it’s cool how effective the different pressures have been. I’m just saying I think that’s what might be that throws them so high above the curve in terms of their blitz percentages.
Thanks NYEE-ERDS.
I know some of you are fond of Football Outsiders, (as am I) so once the season gets underway and trends start developing, looking at an opponent’s rankings on Football Outsiders helps to give fans some perspective on the Jets opponent for this weekend and what to expect.
Pass Offense: 24.3% (14th)
Rush Offense: 2.8% (16th)
Analysis: Although we all saw Chris Johnson go off on the Houston defense last week, the Jets held Johnson in check during their game last season. The only problem here is that in that game, the Jets had Calvin Pace, who did a great job of setting the edge against Johnson, one of the league’s best and fastest rushers outside the tackles. Other than Johnson, the Titans offense is rather pedestrian so far this season, ranking in the middle of the pack. Kerry Collins isn’t going to make a lot of mistakes, but he’s a pure pocket passer, and the Jets have shown this season that they know what to do when they’re up against one of those.
In case you’re counting … that’s
- 16 points given up in two games (including a Sanchez pick six, so … really no TDs)
- Two teams under 300 yards
- Two 100+ yard rushing games
- 2 TDs to 1 INT
- No opponent rushers who rushed for more than 50 yards
- A combined 41-80 Completions to Attempts for opposing QBs
- A 2-0 Record
If you watched the game last night, it was fun to see so many Jets get in on the action in terms of bringing down the QB. At the very bottom of this AP report, there’s a rather interesting note about the Jets and their sackalicious preseason.
The Jets had seven sacks, including the first for 2008 first-round pick Vernon Gholston, giving them 18 overall. It’s the most in a four-game preseason since New England had 19 in 2003.
The next best team this preseason was the Seahawks, who had 16 in the preseason. In 2008, the Jets had 41 sacks during the season, good for 7th in the league. So how did New England do over the course of that 2003 season in terms of their pass rush?
New England in 2003:
F.O. Overall DVOA Rank: 2
F.O. Sack Rank: 21(Sacks on 6.4% of all [adjusted] plays from scrimmage)
Total Sacks: 41 (Ranked 6th)
A few more things about Brandon Marshall that may slow your roll on the desire to acquire him. If you look at his numbers on Football Outsiders, he’s really not as good of a receiver as he’s cracked up to be.
2006 – Brandon Marshall
37 Targets, 309 Yards, 2TD, 54% CatchRate
(Unranked)
2007 – Brandon Marshall
170 Targets, 1325 Yards, 7TDs, 60% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 28th DVOA Rank: 55th
2008 – Brandon Marshall
181 Targets, 1266 Yards, 7TDs, 57% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 42nd DVOA Rank: 58th
The CatchRate is the real issue for me. The top receivers in the league in a given year generally average in the 63-66% range, and Marshall has been well below that in all three of his years in the pros. Add in learning a new offense and who knows what happens. So, for the sheer amount of opportunities thrown to him in 2008 in a full season with Jay Cutler, arguably one of the best young guns in the league, that’s all he came up with? There’s only one other talent, Andre Johnson who had near as many balls thrown at him in 2008, and he ranked tops in the league.
2008 — Andre Johnson
170 Targets, 1575 Yards, 9TDs, 68% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 1st DVOA Rank: 5th
And who did Johnson have throwing to him … Sage Rosenfels? I haven’t seen enough of Marshall to make a real statement on his game, but my point is that he’s doing less with more, and the more I look at it, the more I wonder how well it will translate to the Jets. A cantankerous WR with a history of violence off the field, and legitimate questions to his production on the field moving to New York to work with a clean cut rookie (most likely) who’s still getting a handle on the offense. To me, it doesn’t sound much like a winning combination.
We try to look at the Jets opponents every week and take some of the statistical numbers from Football Outsiders to better understand what the Jets will be facing on Sunday.
Pass Offense: 29.8% (5th)
Rush Offense: 3.7% (12th)
O-Line Adjusted Line Yards: 4.24 Yards (15th)
O-Line Adj. Sack Rate: 5.5% (12th)
Analysis: With decent protection against pass rushers, this team has one of the best passing games in the league this season, and has done it with two of the Achilles Heels of the Jets already shaky pass defense, Tight Ends and Running Backs. David Martin and Anthony Fasano are having career years, while Patrick Cobbs has been deadly out of the backfield. In terms of running the ball, the team is great at getting short yardage in the situations when they need it, so depending on which Jets defense shows up, the team could be in for a very long day.
Once a week, we take a look at some of Football Outsider’s statistical tools to help you get a sense of what you can expect this weekend from the Jets and their opponent.
Letdown game? The only thing a team can do is to take it out on the next guy …
Niners Offense
Passing Rank – 30th
Rushing Rank – 26th
RB 10+ Yards Rank - 21st
O-Line Rushing Rank – 8th w/ 4.36 Adjusted Line Yards
O-Line Sack Rank – 31st w/ 10.0% sack rate
Translation – This line’s run blocking ability is this offense’s best asset and most of the success that the rushing game has had can be credited to who’s up front. Frank Gore can be deadly, but he’s not a consistent threat to make long runs, but he can be relied on for steady yards. Most of the runs come between the guards, so look for Kris Jenkins play to be a big factor in the outcome of this game.
The passing game is having less success, with one of the league’s worst sack percentages. The Jets pressurage unit could get some confidence back this week when they play against a team that has struggled to adequately protect the passer and get rid of the ball quickly.
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